Wizard vs fighter, low level melee

[Doctor Despair]

Fact remains: Schrodinger's lvl 1 fighter beats Schrodinger's lvl 1 wizard more often than the reverse.

I suppose it depends on what builds from the discussion you're discussing. I don't think that's accurate.

If the wizard goes first, they can cast spells unless the fighter has combat reflexes (feat requirement). However, this normally requires that the fighter wield a weapon.

If the wizard wants to cast through the AOO, they can Abrupt Jaunt or just have a high AC.

Hitting the wizard is tough turn 0, because the wizard can hold a tower shield and use mage armor, which gives them 18 AC flat-footed before size bonuses or anything, or a 65% miss chance even if the fighter goes first. If it's an AOO and the wizard isn't flat-footed, they can walk away with at least 22 AC, or an 85% miss chance. The wizard going first has an 85% chance of being able to walk away, drop the shield, and cast a spell with no AOO. That's a cumulative 56% miss chance from the fighter even if the fighter went first.

In order to defeat a conjuration focus, the fighter needs two vile feats (willing deformity and tall) and an exotic weapon proficiency (or the Exoticist class from a dragon mag). If they don't have this, the wizard has a 100% chance of porting away and casting a spell with no AOO. If they do have this, then the wizard has to walk it out and take the 85% chance.

Alternatively, the wizard could just cast defensively. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves) or dex (initiative) however. It does save a level 1 spell that we would have used on mage armor, but it lowers our odds if the fighter goes first, so we probably save the feat slot.

In order to defeat the SOL level 1 spells, the fighter needs two vile feats that are not ideal (willing deformity and madness, for immunity to mind-affecting). Otherwise, the fighter (who probably dumped wisdom) has a 75% to fail their first save (DC 15, -1 from wis), or a big benefit to the wizard.

So we now have this very specific fighter (Exoticist: Combat Reflexes, Willing Deformity, Deformity (Madness), Deformity (Tall)), and we need all of those to not be at a pretty big disadvantage. The fighter has no extra feats, and the wizard has used no feats (except maybe combat casting), so initiative advantage goes to the wizard, too, deepending that lead.

So now the wizard has a 56% chance (fighter went first, wizard AC tanked), or an 85% chance (wizard went first, AC tanked to cast) of casting a spell, depending on inititiative. They saved their jaunt, if they have it, because why not save it. The wizard can dump intelligence, because they're probably using damage-roll spells, not SOL/SOS spells. If the fighter is using dragon material, then the wizard can use a level 0 spell with fell drain/easy metamagic to cause a negative level from a first level spell-slot. However, let's say the fighter dipped a feat for the proficiency. Maybe they gave up madness, knowing the wizard wouldn't prepare a mind-affecting spell, or gave up tall, knowing the wizard wouldn't have a conjuration focus. As the fighter isn't using third party/dragon material, the wizard won't, either.

This puts us in the situation where a conjuration wizard with Color Spray prepared will just straight-up win the matchup, I think we decided, unless the fighter gives up Combat Reflexes, which gives the wizard a way better level 1. I suppose the flip-side to that is that the fighter just wins if they make their save. Still, if the wizard goes first, with no AOO, that's just a 75% winrate, or more if they use their feats to pump the save. It's also a bog-standard wizard-build to boot. This probably means the fighter can't have combat reflexes without losing to a conjuration wizard or just losing to a generic wizard who prepared Color Spray (or both). However, as the reflexes are only relevant on that first turn (if the wizard goes first), that actually only increases the wizard's winrate a little bit (divide it by 0.85), so now the wizard has a 56% of a chance to cast their spell if the fighter went first, or 100% if the wizard went first (instead of AC tanking).

The wizard has to actually take out the fighter with that first spell for it to end there. Reserves of Power + Magic Missile deals 4d4 + 4 damage to the fighter, 8-20 (average 14). The fighter only has 14 hp, but as he'd be left up, that'd probably be a win to the fighter while the wizard was stunned for 3 rounds. That's more than a 50% chance the fighter can walk up and demolish the wizard with at least one of three follow-up attacks.

However, if the wizard softened the fighter up a bit first, things could be different. Magic Missile does a minimum of 8 damage, so if the wizard can deal 7 damage with their level 0 spells and other abilities, the Magic Missile could be a safe finisher. Those spells will do 1d3 on a touch attack (average 2), so not quite enough on average. Additionally, the fighter would get an AOO on each of those spells, and as the wizard dropped their tower shield, that would be bad news for them.

Toss the Reserves of Power combo for a moment, and we return to Substroke. 2d6 (average 7) nonlethal damage with a level 1 slot is less than magic missile, but it prompts a save to fatigue, which is good, and leaves us with two feat slots to do the Precocious Apprentice/Fiery Burst combo. Fighter with 18 dex has a +4 to save, but on a failed save the fighter takes an average of 2 damage, which would top off the fighter after 4 uses. The fighter still gets to repeat their attack four additional times though, which is... not ideal. Still leans fighter.

So we decided that racial forms of flight are all templated or third party, but in a recent thread I believe it was pointed out that players can visit a magical location (Eyes of the Lich Queen, or something like that?) to get a free abberant dragonmark for an SLA. We could get Inflict Light to do 1d8+1 on a touch attack, or Burning Hands for 1d4 reflex half...

Alright, but what if the wizard wasn't a conjuration specialist, and the fighter gave up their reach anyway (losing deformity (tall) for EWP). After all, how could the fighter know the wizard's specialty (apart from us making super meta decisions in both character's builds)? Could the familiar do anything? I'm not sure -- I'm not familiar enough with familars (haha) or wizards to know that sort of obscure thing.

I suppose the wizard could use Backbiter to make the fighter hit themselves once, in place of a damage spell. The fighter would probably do 2d4 +4, or average of 9. However, the wizard still has to do 6 damage with their three level 0s, which they can technically do. However, the odds look very bad for them needing to avoid three more AOOs (possibly - defensive casting allowing) and three more regular attacks.

So the tentative conclusion I'd suggest here is that the wizard needs both level 1 spells to win this matchup - period - without the use of flight from a race or template. This changes the beginning of the match significantly.

...

If the wizard goes first, they can cast spells unless the fighter has combat reflexes - which we decided they didn't. So that's a 100% chance success.

If the wizard wants to cast through the AOOs in their second turn (or first, if the fighter goes first), they can Abrupt Jaunt, defensively cast, or just have a high AC.

The wizard can hold a tower shield, which gives them 14 AC flat-footed before size bonuses or anything, or a 45% miss chance if the fighter goes first. The wizard's normal AC will also be a 14 once they drop the tower shield, or an 18 with it (if the fighter prepares an action to attack the wizard to prevent an abrupt jaunt, causing the wizard to hold it while they walk away). Thus, it isn't in the fighter's interest to waste their first attack on a preparation, as the wizard can't avoid it anyway, and their AC only goes up if they wait to use it on a prepared action.

Defensive casting might be more viable at this point. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves, abrupt jaunts (irrelevant)) or dex (initiative, ac) however.

So now the wizard has a 21% chance (fighter went first, wizard AC tanked), a 39% chance (fighter went first, wizard combat casted defensively), or a 100% chance (wizard goes first) of casting a spell, depending on inititiative. They saved their jaunt, if they have it, because why not save it. The wizard can dump intelligence, because they're probably using damage-roll spells, not SOL/SOS spells, for stat consolidation.

Backbiter ironically did the most damage (2d4 +4, 6-12, average 9) next to Reserves of Power Magic Missile (4d4 +4, average 14). If the wizard takes their second feat as Reserves of Power, they could down the fighter in two spells more often than not, but they'd take one more standard-action attack (negated with Backbiter) and have to cast defensively one more time (15% chance of failure). That leads to the wizard matchup looking like:

Wizard goes first: Backbiter (100% success rate), block attack with Backbiter, cast defensively (85% success rate), hopefully deal a cumulative 15 damage (6d4 +8, 14-32, average 23, more than an 84% success rate)

Fighter goes first: Attack (55% success rate, ends matchup if successful), wizard has to cast defensively or else lose their spell (15% success rate, probably wins matchup if wizard fails, cumulative ~62% success rate), attack (lost to Backbiter), wizard has to cast defensively or else lose their spell (15% success rate, probably wins matchup if wizard fails, cumulative 68% success rate).

Assuming equal initiative, that the wizard takes a conjuration focus to prevent the fighter from trading out Deformity (Tall) for Combat Reflexes, it seems like the matchups are thus:

Psychic Min-Max Schrodinger's Level 1 Wizard: 58%

Psychic Min-Max Schrodinger's Level 1 Fighter: 42%

This, of course, didn't allow for the fighter spending their turn one attack as a melee touch attack to try to initiate a grapple. There is an alternative fighter who focuses entirely on grappling and initiative to try to ensure they go first and lock down the wizard. However, the wizard would then gain access to Nerveskitter, so I think the fighter actually wins initiative slightly less often, and the fighter straight-up loses if the wizard goes first, so I don't actually think this helps the matchup very much.

[However, it is of note that the wizard needs to have specifically Backbiter, Magic Missile, and the feats Combat Casting and Reserves of Power in order for this to work. A wizard missing one of those elements will see their win rate drop significantly.]