Druids would still be T1 just by virtue of their spellcasting alone, but as a player i'd probably hate the nerf enough to not play a druid at all...
I think i'd almost prefer druids being banned tbh.
Edit: in the interest of being constructive, i think it'd be preferable to limit druids to the UA deadly hunter variant and leave wild shape as the domain of rangers via the ACF/MoMF route.
Yes, i realize that it's objectively a worse nerf, but it feels better than being told "you can still do it, but it sucks now compared to its original form". That's just adding insult to injury.
I think that's a factor DM's often disregard when trying to "rebalance" the game with houserules.
After all it doesn't matter how balanced your houserules are if your players aren't having fun because they're feeling unfairly restricted (no matter how accurate those feelings are).