Afterlife

[Aventine]

Aventine, can I get your thoughts on Emmy please?

Hopefully someone has something more solid to go on but for now I agree that EmmyNecromancer at least has some explaining to do.

In addition to her weird first post and her very "Oh, by the way I'm totally Town" second post, didn't Emmy claim very early in the last couple of games? Not doing it this game doesn't mean anything on it's own but it seems worth pointing out.

Ok, based on what AvatarVecna said, Poltergeists are like the wolves, and Ghosts, like me, are like the town.

Emmy looks like Emmy. That feels like a null read, and I'm not seeing any reason to have any other sort of read here. Pressure is good. Thinking she is a wolf based on her two posts isn't. We need something more than "she made a kinda weird post" or "she usually claims early, but didn't this game, and I don't like how she claimed in her second post."

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Aventine... it’s hard to put into words. Mostly a gut read. My townread on bladescape is a little less confident than yesterday, but that’s more because I now have stronger townreads than because of anything he’s done.

In Craziest he felt... there’s a sort of playful cockiness that isn’t really here in the same way this game. And also the really sarcastic responses to your points against him there, which I’m pretty sure I remember him doing against AV in Percy Jackson.

For me the biggest thing is the amount of time spent intentionally missing my point and arguing in circles, always trying to distract attention away from my actual point. It's good strategy for a wolf, but it's not really a townie state of mind to be in. Especially for someone who is insisting that they are welcoming scrutiny upon themselves.

Go back and look at this again:

"If I'm wolf I would know that the wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch. Why would I ever be worried about having pushed a mislynch as a wolf?"

Is that a serious question?

Am I the only one thinking that overall this feels exactly like blade in Craziest?

Wolves jobs are to push mislynches.

If you're worried about doing that as wolf then idk what to say.

Then go back and look at his ISO of rogue. One of his arguments is that rogue looks like he is trying to avoid blame for having pushed a mislynch. When I suggest that blade looks like he is worried about being blamed for pushing a mislynch, he completely avoids that line of reasoning, plays dumb, and questions why a wolf would be worried about having pushed a mislynch when that's what wolves want/need to do. I'm making the same underlying argument he made a little earlier, and he's pretending not to understand it and trying to make it look like a nonsensical argument by misrepresenting it. Give me one reason a townie would ever do that. I can buy a newbie not understanding the logic behind the argument, or something along those lines. But he's not a newbie. And he clearly understands the logic behind the argument, having used it himself.

It's the same pattern of intentionally misunderstanding my post to try to dodge the argument against him that he did repeatedly in Craziest.(Here he ignores my point that it looks like there is a disconnect between what he is saying and what he is doing, and shifts the argument to about whether multiple pressure wagons is a good thing. Here I imply that he wasn't actually pressure voting, and was just using that as an excuse to switch his vote for some other reason, and he responds by...explaining how pressure votes work. Cool. Here I again accuse him of not actually trying to pressure, but only of using that as an excuse and he insists that it is fine to try to start a new wagon. Except that he had put zero effort whatsoever into convincing other people to join the wagon. A random vote off the leading wagons without any attempt to persuade others to join you isn't a pressure vote. He goes from trying to dodge the criticism by insisting he was pressure voting to dropping the claim that he was pressure voting and acting like I'm wrong to criticize him for making a throw-away vote off the wagons that won't impact anything.)

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Because my point was about someone who was intentionally dusting blame off themselves before the flip.

Which is an entirely different situation to my push.

"(others are free to draw their own conclusions)" - Rogue's push was pre-checked with the implication that others conclusions were their responsibility.

I was actively saying "If this is wrong scrutinise me."

I'm not saying you should townread me for that, but to equate the two is kinda disingenuous.

Spoiler

Show

I lead the charge, I take the blame.

I WILL ADD A CAVEAT.

I just realised he could be another Neutral. Which would explain the TMI and the approach as well.

Can you clarify Rogue?

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Props to Gac and Snow for picking up the other neutral angle when I was making my tunnel.

"IF THE WAGON IS A MISLYNCH BLAME ME, I CAN TAKE IT! (loljk, I might be wrong though)"

He's being more subtle than he accused rogue of being, but he is introducing the idea that he might be a tunneling townie. But I'll admit it could also be genuine. Snow prompts that he'd be blamed, he accepts that. But even as a wolf, he'd have to, trying to dodge blame would be too obvious. Then he comes up with an excuse to not be blamed anyway. And in later posts he makes way too big a deal out of how he accepted blame.

It doesn't look like a townie train of thought. A townie responds to Snow there with a shrug and a "yeah, if I'm wrong then my bad, but it's a D1 read, realistically there is a very good chance it's wrong." Not with "ok, I'll take the blame. Except not. See! See! Everyone look! I'm totally accepting blame! I totally can't be a wolf, huh?!"

Eh. Whatever. It's better than targetting someone because I could not understand what they typed. And it helps give us a target for tomorrow. Rogue Alchemist

How does it help give us a target for tomorrow?

Are you indicating you think R_A flips town and you'll go after me? If you think R_A flips town, find another person who has more scum equity for you, I guarantee I'll listen to other arguments. Town doesn't win from me seeing something I find wolfy and tunnelling.

Of course, but then you have claimed the neutralest neutral role, so I don't know what I expect from you.

This is terrible. The assumption that gac means he'll go after blade if rogue is mislynched is bad. It suggests that what is particularly salient on blade's mind is being blamed for rogue being mislynched. I get that Snow just said that. But a townie isn't really worried and doesn't dwell on that. Like, if nothing else why go straight to assuming rogue will flip town? Why not think that gac thinks rogue is tied to someone, thus rogue flipping scum gives us leads on scumbuddies?

Then the rest is trying to avoid blame for a rogue mislynch. What is the difference between blade saying "don't just follow me, decide for yourself who you think is wolfy." And rogue saying the exact same thing? This reads like making an argument for why people shouldn't go after blade if/when rogue flips town. Despite how much blade is going on about being willing to take the blame, here he is saying that "town doesn't win" by following him. That if rogue is town, the mislynch is everyone else's fault for tunneling due to his read. He is preemptively trying to set up an argument to dodge heat from a rogue mislynch. This is what he called rogue wolfy for doing. And he's an even worse offender than rogue was.

I mean, I'll totally admit that this by itself isn't 100%. For one thing rogue was town. But how blade handled things later on makes it worse. It's all dodging. He puts so much effort into insisting that he welcomed pressure. He knows that what he did here is wolfy and needs to shift attention away.

On the whole, this post is written from a state of mind of knowing that the rogue lynch is bad. There is PIS/TMI/whatever acronym we're using now on assuming rogue will flip town instead of scum. Then preemptively making a case for why the mislynch isn't his fault. The dodging and Craziest-esque behavior that follows makes it so much worse.

I am always wary of people implying they know how a person will flip. Keeping my eye on you.

Though in reality if no one else claims Medium you're pretty much perma-clear as Neutral so idk why I am.

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Also if this flips wrong I welcome town to pressure or look closely at me. You should never let people lead town without scrutiny UNLESS they're cleared.

Side note: If R_A flips neutral I don't consider that a wrong flip so I refuse to allow people to pressure me in that case.

I'm suspicious of you, but loljk no I'm not because you're a neutral. Empty pseudo-analysis.

Then insisting he should get pressure if rogue flips town. Honestly, it's overcompensating; it doesn't ring genuine. It doesn't feel like a natural development from the previous post trying to avoid blame. It feels more like someone who realized they were a bit too obvious earlier and so now need to go the opposite way. It's also not really a townie state of mind. D1 reads are wrong all the time. If someone were able to be right more often then not D1 they'd be a mafia god. Having been wrong D1 doesn't make someone wolfy. Having been the one to propose/push a mislynch D1 doesn't make someone wolfy. It's pretty NAI. Maybe even town-leaning (depending on context and other details surrounding it) since wolves might be more of a mind to sit back and not take risks if they don't need to. If a townie is wrong D1, then ok sure: the sun also rises in the east and sets in the west. A wolf is spending a lot more time thinking about the consequences to themselves from pushing a bad wagon D1 than a townie is. And blade is spending a fair amount of time thinking about that. He is clever enough to start trying to push the idea that he isn't trying to dodge blame. But that doesn't erase the fact that he did try to dodge blame. If anything it makes that fact worse.