The Elder Scrolls: The XVII Princes of Oblivion

[Kareeah_Indaga]

I am sceptical of Esbern's level of knowledge and understanding of the Thalmor's agenda. Sure, he's a Blade, but all that means is that he would have been privy to some of the rumours and speculation of that organisation. And the one thing we can say with certainty about the Blades' knowledge of the Thalmor is, it wasn't good enough.

I will point out that Esbern is specifically the Blades’ Loremaster. It’s literally his job to know these things, and the last time he brought up a crackpot theory and no one believed him it was about Alduin, and he was spot on about that.

the Psjdics are in the next game as a major faction, split between "well, how could we know that would happen" asshats and people who are actually apologetic over their screw-up. May or may not be part of the main quest

Sad part is I wouldn’t have given this possibility any weight before ESO…and now I consider it a strong possibility.

Would now be a good time to remind you that Esbern is also slightly loopy and definitely more than a bit paranoid? Recall his reaction when you first meet him in the Riften sewers. Sure, the Thalmor have excellent reasons to want him dead, but there's suitable caution and then there's whatever the heck he's doing. As for leaving evidence around, they're definitely happy to leave written confirmation that Ulfric Stormcloak was an agent of theirs in the Embassy, which I'm pretty sure is going to be far more politically explosive than some crazy ideas about ending the world!

How exactly do you get ‘loopy’ out of Esbern’s behavior?

Also, Ulfric being an asset is extremely relevant to the work the Embassy is doing (keeping the war going). It’s the kind of thing that could plausibly end up in the new employee briefing - ‘if by chance you run across the leader of the Stormcloaks, don’t kill him because we need him alive.’