Afterlife 2

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: Taffimai ISO, part one

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Taffimai, in honour of our delightful host, and because I'm not a survivor this game WOOP WOOP WOOP!

So she's either town or a wolf. Extremely informative.

I agree that the right time to lynch the narrator is when the game hasn't ended after flipping three wolves or six villagers, but we need a second wagon that isn't Gac (and I think Flame is new?) so I'll try Supagoof to see how that takes off.

And to get some conversation going: what does everybody think the bastard mechanic is going to be this game? Before AV told us that we're not using QuickTopics I thought it would be a lone wolf because the "you can see wolf chat but not post in it" mechanic can't be done in Discord afaik. Right now I'm leaning towards "there are no wolves, you're all villagers" but that needs some sort of night voting mechanic because I don't think AV would do the very thing Rogan suggested in the recruitment thread (too obvious).

Getting wagons going is good, but not unfakeable especially when wolf!Taffimai wouldn't know Supagoof is her partner. I am mildly suspicious of starting the bastard mechanic conversation as it provides an easy way for wolves to breadcrumb their identities, as demonstrated by moonfly.

(snip)


I don't, I was talking about the edge cases where I'd want to lynch the narrator. I don't think there are four wolves, so if we lynch three and the game doesn't end, something's up. Similarly, I don't think there are less than two (although technically a serial killer game would be possible, but in my experience you very rarely win 1 v 9 anyway so that wouldn't be very challenging), therefore if we see six people flip as villagers without lynching a single wolf (which would mean 2 v 2 left) and the game still hasn't ended, I'd be more inclined to suspect AV than that there'd be only a single wolf.

So in short, the correct AvatarVecna time is Day 4.

If I squint I could get to a wolfread for thinking there's three wolves, but her explanation is fair and there's no reason to disbelieve it.

And before you ask, no, I also don't know for sure that there isn't a vig/sk to provide a second night kill or a baner/voider which would upset that Day 4 calculation, but I don't think so. "Bastard mode: I made it seem in the recruitment thread like there wouldn't be many power roles, but there are!" seems unlikely.

Mechanics, NAI.

Time for the evening catchup!



Actually I missed this the first time around, but what tells you they're not distancing (or pulling a Snowblaze like in the last game)?




I'm taking that second quote completely out of context, but this combo is hilarious and I hope to see it sometime. Night one, BAM! half the players dead




You forget that a wolfless game is the scenario that was discussed in the recruitment thread, I just added the bit about a night-vote mechanic instead of the narrator choosing the kills. I hope you're right about AV not being likely to run it, but I didn't pull the idea out of nowhere.




I think you're seeing a connection between two things that aren't related. "When should we lynch the narrator" looks at what the realistic expectations are for this game, and with ten players imo that's 2-3 wolves. "What could be the bastard mechanic" is speculation about an abnormal scenario that I nonetheless think might happen, and "no wolves" is the one I picked. It was meant more to start conversation than to state a firm opinion on the game, and well... mission accomplished!




Actually, if you're right about the idea that the wolves don't know each other, I think three wolves is more likely, because it's harder for them to win when they can't coordinate their voting. In a way it's worse than being a serial killer, because they risk involuntarily lynching their buddies, or giving themselves away by being too scared to vote. (more below)




This is very true. On the one hand, Day 1 isn't even halfway. On the other, I think it increases the chances that you're right about the wolves not being able to communicate: if they don't know who their buddie(s) is/are, they can't try to protect them, they'll just vote for anyone who's not themselves. Which is bad news because there won't be voting patterns or odd defenses to spot or analyse. Which, in turn, is a good argument for there being only two wolves... Circular reasoning achieved!




Actually I think that if several people speak out against voting for the narrator, and you're one of the people voting for the narrator, you might feel compelled to respond in some way. I know I don't have to explain to Gac what I meant by voting for myself in tribute to the host, but if one of the newer players had commented, I'd have gone looking for the oldest quote I could find. This is the game where people analyse your every typo for hidden motives, after all.




More like casting magic missile on the darkness

Tomorrow we're leaving on holiday, and I'm going to spend most of the day driving, then unpacking and improvising dinner. I'll see you all in ~20 hours or so!

Soft defence of moonfly. I'm working under the assumption that wolf!Taffimai would have picked up on Moonfly's talk about the bastard mechanic and so be aware Moonfly is her partner.

(Note to self: look at this post with the context of the quoted posts to work out the rest. Not finding it *that* strongl

Spoiler: Vote History (tell me if I missed one like last time)

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Wombat			Supagoof 1
Moonfly			AV 1
Caoimhin		Gac 1
Taffimai		Taffimai 1
Gac			Flame 1
Saint			AV 2
Snow			Gac 2
Flame			Gac 3
Taffimai		Supagoof 2		Taffimai 0
Supagoof		Snowblaze
Gac			AV 3			Flame 0
Moonfly 		No Vote			AV 2
Saint			Supagoof 3		AV 1
Gac			Moonfly 1		AV 0
Moonfly			Gac 4
Snow			Moonfly 2		Gac 3

There were no posts yesterday (or today) that I particularly wanted to reply to, so I decided to try my hand at one of those reads lists I've seen others do. I'd welcome feedback if you think my reasoning is faulty.

Spoiler: Suspicions

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I've grouped people based on how willing I am to vote for them, so this is not a "most to least suspicion" ranking.

Book Wombat
Reasons they might be a wolf	Last game Wombat joked around a lot and had one of the highest posting rates, and was told that it looked like someone really excited to play a wolf (and he ended up being a serial killer). Now his behaviour is the exact opposite, which could be deliberate.
Reasons why they might be town	Low activity alone does not a wolf tell make.
Do I want to vote them?	Not today, but tomorrow or Day 3, definitely.
Libro
Reasons they might be a wolf	An experienced player who has been away for a while, might be laying low (haven't gone back to check whether Libro is also one of those "I'm never around on Day 1" types).
Reasons why they might be town	I got the impression from the recruitment thread that they were still debating whether or not to sign up, so might not know they're supposed to be here, especially since villagers didn't get a PM this game (not a fan of that, btw).
Do I want to vote them?	As Wombat, but as they might autolynch and we'll then get Emmy or Rogan, I'm fine with waiting a bit longer.
Saint-Just
Reasons they might be a wolf	None yet, but I haven't really looked too closely because new player.
Reasons why they might be town	Active, responsive, makes good points.
Do I want to vote them?	Not anytime soon (even if they weren't new)
Flame
Reasons they might be a wolf	Only two posts, lampshaded OMGUS
Reasons why they might be town	Both posts looked perfectly normal to me.
Do I want to vote them?	Not anytime soon (even if they weren't new)
Snowblaze
Reasons they might be a wolf	The interaction with Gac to vote Moonfly together looked like something they might have discussed in advance. People like to say that "Snow always looks town, even as a wolf", but for me it's more the other way around that Snow has an air of calculated indecision even when town.
Reasons why they might be town	Very vocal about suspicions which helps to draw others' attention to them. Interacts a lot, definitely not trying to lay low.
Do I want to vote them?	Not atm. I'd vote off someone inactive before someone useful who looks mildly wolfish unless it's LyLo.
Caomhin
Reasons they might be a wolf	Seems to be trying a bit too hard to find something, anything suspicious. Wolves do this in order to drive the attention towards townies. His interactions with me gave me the distinct impression that had Gac and Caoimhin been wolf-buddies, I'd have been his pick for a counter-wagon and the only reason I'm not is that they're not.
Reasons why they might be town	Trying to find wolves is what a townie is supposed to do, and sussing them for that and no other reason is weak. Also, being open about your suspicions allows people to respond, which prevents mislynches and promotes conversation.
Do I want to vote them?	See Snow. I'm also fairly sure that Snow and Caoimhin are not wolves together, their posts are too similar in style yet uncoordinated.
Gac
Reasons they might be a wolf	"I want to vote you but I don't want to be the one to start a wagon, I'll just try to get an inexperienced player to do it for me so I can safely join it later without getting blamed when you flip town"
Reasons why they might be town	This very much gave me the impression of someone who's not really paying attention, only looked at the vote count and the picked "the other wagon" while forgetting that AV is the narrator. I'd expect a wolf to be more on the ball than that and to avoid the attention that voting newbie then narrator inevitably attracts.
Do I want to vote them?	Yes, why not. However the main reason he looks wolf to me is very similar to the bogus one Snow gave for voting Caoimhin last time, and as I said then I think it's flimsy.
Moonfly
Reasons they might be a wolf	Wanting to wait with a vote till others have shown their hand is shifty, and shows they might want to be able to pick between wagons in case one of them is a buddy. A wolf would get annoyed for attracting attention with something they think is innocuous (like Caoimhin last time).
Reasons why they might be town	Their posts came off more annoyed than anything else to me, sort of "Everybody else is random/joke voting, why are you picking on me?" and moreso when their promise to vote properly later failed to appease Snow.
Do I want to vote them?	Also yes.
Supagoof
Reasons they might be a wolf	As he said, posting Day 1 is atypical behaviour. I've got nothing better.
Reasons why they might be town	It's atypical behaviour I'd like to encourage, posts look perfectly normal.
Do I want to vote them?	When I voted for Supagoof it was because I wanted to create a second wagon (and the one for Gac was also started randomly). Now that I am voting for him, I'm only going to change that for a reason. If Moonfly gets another vote I'll push one of them up to four.

Sorry for the **** table, but I don't know how to fix it and I don't have time to mess around with it.

So there you have it. All in all I think the two wagons should be Moonfly and Gac today, since they're the two players that are somewhat under suspicion, but I need some time to decide between my own leaning that out of those two, I'd rather believe Gac as a wolf than Moonfly, and Saint-Just's very good point that Gac's wagon feels more coordinated (unless the wolves are exactly Gac and Snow, but eh). In the mean time, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is because you never know, the RNG might have gotten lucky. See you later!

P.S. AV, I couldn't find anything about an auto-lynch mechanic in the recruitment thread, do we have one?
Edit: we do, that's what the alternates are for. Realised this while filling out the table, forgot to remove this line.

Reads list is decent. Not seeing anything massively towny, or any smoking guns other than "why isn't she voting for gac or moonfly".

My top two suspects who I still would only give less than even odds of being a wolf are still not people I really want to vote for. I am in the same position as last time on Day 1, where I think we don't have any decent proof yet and are absolutely going to mislynch. If I move to Moonfly, I'm creating another 3v3 tie that's imo just as good as the current one. If I vote Gac, I'm basically deciding the lynch because 4/2/2 would require too much last minute vote shifting to change.

...actually, sure. Gac just to check whether Snow was bussing again.

...not a fan. A moonfly vote would be the more logical conclusion from her reads list. And voting gac "to check whether I'm bussing" is... okay, maybe that's a me thing and not an actual wolf tell.

I promise if Gac flips town I'll vote Moonfly with you tomorrow.



This, however, is absolutely true. If Gac's a wolf, there's nothing you can do that will keep me from voting you tomorrow for suspected bussing. Someone else might try by, idk, confessing? but not you.

I was referring to being nightkilled, not lynched.

...eh, wanting to vote moonfly is good. Is it good enough to poke holes in my theory? I need to go back and check what my reads/thread consensus were at the time.

No, using ciphers is against the general forum rules. Though some people have a terrible, terrible memory.

NAI.

Bastard mode: Day 1 never ends!



I also remember someone who would spell out their role with the first letters of an early post to use it as proof later. Aventine, I think, but I'm not sure. This was an older game, and I'm not sure they still play.

NAI.

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Du? Definite discussion driver.

I wish, lol.

Taffimai (sorry for firing so many questions at you), do you think there's anything that you've done or that has happened that wouldn't have happened if you're a wolf, and if so what?

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That's a really badly worded question. Let's try again.

Taffimai, do you think that any events in this game strongly point to your being town? If so, which events?