So... I missed most of Day Two and Night Three because of school, only saw the end of night approaching thirteen minutes before so I just chose someone randomly. Apologies.
Do you think you will have time to read up today? I explained why I suspect Rogan here and Xumtiil here in the spoiler.
78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.