Quote Originally Posted by Edric O View Post
I basically agree with you. Redcloak has deep-seated psychological issues that make him stick to The Plan, but, even if he didn't, The Plan still would be the rational best choice as far as he knows. He has no reason to trust a single word that comes from Durkon or Minrah, and other than (a) The Plan or (b) trusting Durkon and Minrah, what other options does he have?

Well, the only other option would be to say that Gobbotopia is enough, the goblins already have their own independent nation in this world and he's going to go back and help with that instead of The Plan.

That would be his option (c). But that would require a showdown with Xykon, which he has no guarantee of winning, and he knows that if he loses then Xykon will immediately massacre all of Gobbotopia out of spite.

So, given that option (b) is an offer from his enemies, and option (c) is ludicrously risky on top of being just a consolation prize, I really think it is rational for Redcloak to choose option (a), continuing with The Plan.
I agree with this. Redcloak's reasoning is based on what he knows, and he is not aware of many things.

But that's not what makes it a sunk cost fallacy.

Let's reason things through from Redcloak's perspective.
Goblins were created as canon fodder. The gods prevent them from becoming more than that by denying them access to the things they give freely to other races. The plan is to threaten the release of a god-destroying entity to blackmail them into granting... what? Better land? Wealth? The acceptance of other races into larger society?

Right-eye was doing all those things already. Right-eye was accomplishing what Redcloak says he wants. Redcloak killed Right-eye because Right-eye's success would ruin all his dreams of being the one to 'save goblinkind.'

The fallacy is that Redcloak had evidence of a better way to achieve the results he claimed to want, and rejected it in order to pursue The Plan. Killing his brother was the sunk cost that he can never recover, and stopping now after having paid that cost is no longer possible. No matter what it costs, now there is only one way forward. Even if it costs the whole world and every goblin in it.