Quote Originally Posted by Edric O View Post
I basically agree with you. Redcloak has deep-seated psychological issues that make him stick to The Plan, but, even if he didn't, The Plan still would be the rational best choice as far as he knows. He has no reason to trust a single word that comes from Durkon or Minrah, and other than (a) The Plan or (b) trusting Durkon and Minrah, what other options does he have?

Well, the only other option would be to say that Gobbotopia is enough, the goblins already have their own independent nation in this world and he's going to go back and help with that instead of The Plan.

That would be his option (c). But that would require a showdown with Xykon, which he has no guarantee of winning, and he knows that if he loses then Xykon will immediately massacre all of Gobbotopia out of spite.

So, given that option (b) is an offer from his enemies, and option (c) is ludicrously risky on top of being just a consolation prize, I really think it is rational for Redcloak to choose option (a), continuing with The Plan.

Here's a thought for (d):

Check to see if they're being honest. You don't have to trust them to check to see if they're lying. Kinda the opposite.


He's demonstrably mired in a sunk cost fallacy because not only didn't he "trust them", he went straight to "can't possibly be true, so I will try to murder them and will definitely, absolutely not even spend a single second trying to work out if the offer was truly being made in good faith and has a better chance of success than my current plan".


Because, well, he might not have the preponderance of evidence to trust Durkon and Minrah - he only has their word - but he didn't try to get any evidence. Having been alerted to the possibility that he might be wrong in an unexpected avenue, he refused to check.

And once they got away... he doubled down. The Modron is being kept in the dark, when he could have used the spell to summon something he could have trusted (say, a powerful servant of the Dark One) and could have directed some questions at. He could have pulled Oona aside and filled her (even partially) in on the conversation and asked her to take a message to the Dark One if she gets killed, since her death (and subsequent resurrection by himself) could plausibly happen in the dangerous dungeons they're planning on blitzing through. He could make a plan to, next time he gets spells, spam every information-gathering spell he has access to (instead, they're escalating to "maximum speed dungeon crawling", which means spells spent checking things could get him killed).

He could have done a lot of things... but he rejected the possibility that he was wrong out of hand, because he truly lives in the Village of I Was Right All Along.


tl;dr: Yes, based on the facts he has, his plan is still correct. But he's deliberately avoiding seeking out new facts after being given a hypothesis that competes with his own model of events.


And it's a very human reaction. But not one conducive to good outcomes.