Prediction Page, (bring your quatloos, gps, and internets, you'll need them.)

[Jasdoif]

I remain confused as to what Jasdoif thinks happened, how he thinks it happened, and the chronology of what he thinks happened.

Something other than what you describe. Like...I don't think saying "a d20 roll coming out even is more likely than a natural 1" requires me to choose which of 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, or 20 is the outcome; if I was confident in precisely what happened, I'd be better served betting on that.