Quote Originally Posted by Kish View Post
Looking at the bet discussion (and recognizing, of course, that there will be no actual bets), I do not think "you're not willing to put actual money on the Protean, so your faith is weak" would be a logically valid approach. A much more interesting question, to me, is how people would act in the following situation:
Have we had this discussion? Like, maybe we talked about odds, and maybe someone proposed something like this, so maybe this is how I got started thinking like this in the first place?

If so, then I can testify that this game works all the way until it doesn’t. I found a number, and I was proud of it, but then I looked at it and said, “If I’m really this confident, why aren’t I doing something?” But no sooner did I put my fingers on the keyboard than the number I thought about changed. I was thinking about things like whether I wanted escrow, whether I would need that money before Rich had the reveal, what to do if something happened and we never got a reveal.

But that’s exactly what I wanted out of this experiment. Not how much money I want to bet, but how important this is to me. It’s possible one of the reasons I came forward is because I’m still playing the game of trying to make that number budge. It’s possible that I think this was a wonderful experience and everyone should have a chance. It’s possible that I think this was a miserable experience and misery loves company. I don’t know. But there is more at stake here than just money.

And since betting is out, I will go back to the drawing board on how to isolate what I think my actual chances are from any bravado that might be in play.

Quote Originally Posted by dmc91356 View Post
Cherry picking the above, I want to point out that just because the other people in the circus scene do not say that they have never seen anything like it does not mean that they have ever seen anything like it prior to the circus. A perfectly reasonable inference here is that many people at the circus are repeat customers, like, say, the goblins. They have seen it before, but only AT THE CIRCUS. They don't necessarily have a clue what it is, but they have seen it before.

That's just my two cents and I can certainly be completely wrong here.
With your help, I think my mistake the first time was in being too Watsonian. I’m curious about what Rich is saying when he’s trying to talk to us, rather than what we can infer. So the circus scene, regardless of any of that, is most memorable (on this topic) for telling us that the Monster in the Dark is not easily recognized.

I’m the guy who let the big game hunters slip, so it seems like getting a better picture is the next step.