Stormcloaks Or Empire (One Of The Three Certainties Of Life)

[Errorname]

The traditions and psyche of the disaffected demographic make peasant rebellion an unlikely outcome of social unrest in Skyrim. If someone thinks they can do a better job, they just walk up to the Jarl and say to their face "fite me, I can do better jerb." and then, most likely, they get handed a sword and the Jarl disembowles them, because being a Jarl lets you have access to a lot of martial training and good equipment, and being a peasant does not.

Skyrim has no shortage of skilled fighters and frankly most of the Jarls are not particularly impressive, but that doesn't matter because Nords are not Klingons and their nobility clearly does not actually work like this.

This is why I keep saying that Ulfric is one of the only ones to take advantage of the situation to actually escalate it to actual war and violence.

Ulfric is an optimal candidate for the Thalmor for a lot of reasons, but just because he kicked off the war by challenging Torygg to a duel doesn't mean that's the only way to kick the war off. If a bunch of rebels raid an imperial manned fort, that's kicking off a war. Or if a bunch of imperials crack down brutally on suspected rebels.