Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
If he thinks that another war with the Dominion is likely to happen in the not too distant future then yes, accepting a rather awful situation is better than the Imperial and Stormcloak forces grinding each other down to make things easier for the Dominion forces they're both likely to face in the next war.

If he thinks the Empire will literally never stand up against the Dominion (and the Dominion will never attack first), then his actions make sense, but that seems unlikely.

Fittingly, Ulfric is faced with a similar choice that he presented Torygg with. Do the thing that's "right" in some lofty moral sense or do the thing that's actually smart. And like Torygg, he seems to have picked the former.
Ulfric very much does not believe the Empire has what it takes to fight the Dominion. And that belief is, as I've been arguing for what feels like half a thread now, not baseless.

Look at the final dialogue with Tullius in the "Stormcloak victory" scenario. It's one of very few instances in Skyrim where the writing actually moves me:
Quote Originally Posted by Battle for Solitude
Ulfric: "This is it for you. Any last words before I send you to Oblivion?"
Tullius: "You realize this is exactly what they wanted."
Galmar: "What who wanted?"
Tullius: "The Thalmor. They stirred up trouble here. Forced us to divert needed resources and throw away good soldiers quelling this rebellion."
Ulfric: "It's a little more than a rebellion, don't you think?"
Galmar: "Heh."
Tullius: "We aren't the bad guys you know."
Ulfric: "Maybe not, but you certainly aren't the good guys."
Tullius: "Perhaps you're right. But then what does that make you?"
Ulfric: "You just said it yourself."
Galmar: "It makes us right."
Tullius: "And if I surrender?"
Ulfric: "The Empire I remember never surrendered."
I think this little scene shows both sides at their best. Neither Tullius nor Ulfric is blind, but they're both convinced of their own rightness. Ulfric says "The Empire... never surrendered" - which implies that the Empire stopped being the Empire when it signed the Concordat. The Markarth Incident was Ulfric giving the Empire a chance to redeem itself, and it blew it - as it's blown every opportunity since to actually stand up to its new overlords.

I don't really see how you can expect Ulfric to put any faith in the Empire, after that.