Conspiracy Kitchen Sink + Occam's Razor = What?

[Leliel]

Well, the Razor has to be a bit blunt by definition if we're involving the supernatural, but...

One of the things I dislike about some conspiracy thrillers is that there isn't a good explanation as to why the conspiracy hasn't fractured or at least failed partially by now. People don't have homogeneous opinions, and even assuming hypercomptency, sometimes Lady Luck decides to have a bit of fun at your expense.

So, for a possible project, I was thinking of creating an X-Files-esque "Conspiracy Kitchen Sink" setting, but with a significant dose of common sense. For example, there is an Illuminati, but they're really the mystical equivalent of the Mafia-they're not related to the Bavarian organization of the same name, they just stole the title because it sounded cool. Many of them don't even know where Bavaria is on a map. Similarly, the reason their goals seem to be so nebulous is because well, they are-it's primarily about making money and underworld capital, and like most crooks, there are many, many ways of getting there, it's just that being mystics, they tend to be more arcane.

This sort of "the myth of the conspiracy is more interesting then the actual conspiracy" theme runs through the idea-the "ancient astronaunts" were a random mining probe that it's makers likely sent out in thousands and didn't expect to hear back from, the Knights Templar died out after escaping, etc. Ultimately, the idea is that the shadow world simply is a much more fantastic version of the real world, and attempting to blame problems on it is running from reality.

So, any ideas for "conspiracy realism?"

[Sodalite]

No references to actual conspiracy theories from me, since you hit all the ones I know about that are even vaguely supernatural, or I suppose preternatural, since they're supposed to taking in place in the real world. However, I would like to say that, given our superstitious nature, the mystic cultures of the world would themselves develop further, and potentially even more ridiculous seeming myths and legends. The mages would have their own sort of stuff that's impossible for them to do, perhaps in the idea of epicly powerful mages of ages past, capable of performing feats now impossible. That rabbit may even go all the way the down, though describing that could get confusing.

Basically, just because they are our myths, doesn't mean they don't have their own. Of course, you may have already thought of that.

[Fouredged Sword]

The organization called the illuminati is just an incompetent mafia like organization. They are actually run but the real iluminati (being taken over shortly after they took the name), but the real inuminati would never use that name because they take the word secret to actually have meaning and no true secret organization would ever name itself. They have enough problems with the names other groups give them being used to track them without creating an organization wide consistent identity.

They run the whole thing use to discredit the idea of the illuminati. It's hard to hide if EVERYONE has heard of your secret organization!

[Leliel]

The organization called the illuminati is just an incompetent mafia like organization. They are actually run but the real iluminati (being taken over shortly after they took the name), but the real inuminati would never use that name because they take the word secret to actually have meaning and no true secret organization would ever name itself. They have enough problems with the names other groups give them being used to track them without creating an organization wide consistent identity.

They run the whole thing use to discredit the idea of the illuminati. It's hard to hide if EVERYONE has heard of your secret organization!

Hm. The old idea of the Nine Unknown Men perhaps?

Naturally, they're a bunch of bickering old WASPs who cannot agree on anything, except how much they like golf.

Hm, here's another-supposedly, there's a Satanic group called the Moriah Conquering Wind, commissioned by Satan to bring ruin to (the theorist's particular sect of) Christianity.

In the real world (of the setting), the MCW is a rock band known for it's inclusion of fae performers.

[Anxe]

Taking clues from the Illuminati game and the Illuminati books, you've missed:

Dystopians,
Lizardmen,
Neonazis,
The Society of Assassins,
Cthuluians,
Atlantians,
The Church of the SubGenius (Among other fringe religions)
Shangri-La
Aliens,
Men in Black (connected to aliens),
The Internet,
Switzerland,
Communists,
Republicans,
Democrats,
Anarchists,
and that stuffed piece of anatomy.

Maybe some of the conspiracy theories about these organizations are false or maybe they died out long ago. You should know before the game begins.

[Eldan]

I used this one in a Total War game.

The Gnomes of Zurich are actually gnomes. Though they prefer the term Nibelungen. They have used illusions to so perfectly disguise themselves as humans that they can no longer be really distinguished in any way from real humans. Some of them work in banks, but really just as clerks and money changers, because they like counting coins.

[Arbane]

There is a large and busy conspiracy devoted to... convincing people that the world is run by a conspiracy. FNORD

Ever read the book Foucault's Pendulum? It basically does this to Templar-style historical conspiracy theories.

[nedz]

I ran a conspiracy style campaign some years ago, the research for it involved reading lots of awful, badly written, books - you know the sort.

I went for the wheels within wheels approach: so the bandits they defeated at low level were working for some other outfit, whom, they later discovered, were working for someone else.
Also, the organisations the party were working for had been compromised by some other, different, outfit.
Nothing was as it appeared.

If you've ever played Illuminati, you will get the picture: competing networks of organisations all being run by some off-stage group.

You could actually use this as a model and create a network of influence, alliances and control where the entities are all organisations {Temples, Cults, Guilds, Unions, Politicians, Business Interests, Oligarchs, ..., etc.}. Just draw an organagram.

[Fouredged Sword]

There is a conspiracy that exists entirely as spies from other conspiracies that are spying on it without any real members. It started as a simple misunderstanding and bad intelligence, but now nobody is willing to admit that everyone is a spy at this point and they are all looking for the mastermind of this devious plot to gather so many spies. (hint, there isn't one)

Bonus point if you get the reference.

[Ravens_cry]

There is a conspiracy that exists entirely as spies from other conspiracies that are spying on it without any real members. It started as a simple misunderstanding and bad intelligence, but now nobody is willing to admit that everyone is a spy at this point and they are all looking for the mastermind of this devious plot to gather so many spies. (hint, there isn't one)

Bonus point if you get the reference.

That's a little Paranoid, no?
Eh, the trouble with applying Occam's Razor faithfully to most conspiracy theories is that most conspiracy theories don't hold up to it.

[toapat]

have it work like Ravnika's Dirmir guild:

The barkeep controls 2 kings

who control 2 kingdoms each

which command 2 separate armies each

each army has 2 generals

each general has some number of advisors

each advisor has 2 brigand companies in their employ

each brigand company has 2 advisors in their employ

each advisor advises two leaders each.

and so on and so forth

[Arbane]

That's a little Paranoid, no?
Eh, the trouble with applying Occam's Razor faithfully to most conspiracy theories is that most conspiracy theories don't hold up to it.

For conspiracy theories, it's more like Webster's Razor: "If the facts don't fit your theory, they're part of a bigger conspiracy's cover-up."

[Geostationary]

That's a little Paranoid, no?
Eh, the trouble with applying Occam's Razor faithfully to most conspiracy theories is that most conspiracy theories don't hold up to it.

It all goes back to the Milkman...

[Cespenar]

There is a conspiracy that exists entirely as spies from other conspiracies that are spying on it without any real members. It started as a simple misunderstanding and bad intelligence, but now nobody is willing to admit that everyone is a spy at this point and they are all looking for the mastermind of this devious plot to gather so many spies. (hint, there isn't one)

Bonus point if you get the reference.

That reminds me of Burn After Reading, but I'm not sure. It was a bloody good movie, though.

[Ravens_cry]

For conspiracy theories, it's more like Webster's Razor: "If the facts don't fit your theory, they're part of a bigger conspiracy's cover-up."

Indeed.
My speciality is debunking Apollo hoax conspiracy theory claims, and I run into this 'razor' quite frequently.
In fact, I have, on numerous occasions, been accused of being a paid propagandist for the United States government and NASA in particular.

[Telok]

Indeed.
My speciality is debunking Apollo hoax conspiracy theory claims, and I run into this 'razor' quite frequently.
In fact, I have, on numerous occasions, been accused of being a paid propagandist for the United States government and NASA in particular.

That burn was so harsh I think you deorbited.

[Ravens_cry]

That burn was so harsh I think you deorbited.

Unfortunately I know exactly how they would answer, at least the younger ones. They think they are too smart to be fooled, and that's why NASA won't fake it again.
I've seen sentiments to this effect even before this xkcd comic was posted.

[GeriSch]

If you want to get ideas for a really strange conspiracy world, i advise you to read the Illuminatus! Trilogy - its the true classic for that genre, but can be a little hard to grasp. Fnord. You have about zero chance to understand want went on in this books if you don't read all the way through, including the appendix.

Hail Eris,
Geri

[Ninjadeadbeard]

Indeed.
My speciality is debunking Apollo hoax conspiracy theory claims, and I run into this 'razor' quite frequently.
In fact, I have, on numerous occasions, been accused of being a paid propagandist for the United States government and NASA in particular.

You sir, have won the internet. Congratulations.

[Ravens_cry]

You sir, have won the internet. Congratulations.

How so?

[HeadlessMermaid]

There is a large and busy conspiracy devoted to... convincing people that the world is run by a conspiracy. FNORD

Ever read the book Foucault's Pendulum? It basically does this to Templar-style historical conspiracy theories.

Not exactly. Spoilers:

Spoiler

Show

Basically, it's a bunch of scholars who invent an elaborate, imaginary conspiracy for the laughs. They don't mean to convince anyone. But their figments leek to conspiracy freaks. These people not only fall for it, but come to believe that they ARE the imaginary conspirators, that they just discovered their true purpose, and they are now hell-bent on fulfilling it. So in effect, the scholars unintentionally cause a fake conspiracy to come true. Freaking scary.

But I second this suggestion. It's a truly great book, it offers a lot of insight to the psychology of conspiracy theorists (and how imprevious to logic people can be), and it includes a lot of Occam's Razor-style reasoning about the whole business.

It has one problem, though: if you read it, any other conspiracy-related literature you read from now on will seem utterly shallow and uncompromisingly dumb.

[Man on Fire]

Several "shady secret organisations" are really fronts for one, that made them so it would be harder to figure their true plan. If some of those organisations are at war, it's all staged to confuse people who try to undercover the truth.

[Saintheart]

Taking clues from the Illuminati game and the Illuminati books, you've missed:

Dystopians,
Lizardmen,
Neonazis,
The Society of Assassins,
Cthuluians,
Atlantians,
The Church of the SubGenius (Among other fringe religions)
Shangri-La
Aliens,
Men in Black (connected to aliens),
The Internet,
Switzerland,
Communists,
Republicans,
Democrats,
Anarchists,
and that stuffed piece of anatomy.

Also, the British.
Yes, really. What, you thought Elizabeth Regina doesn't still consider herself in blood feud with the US of A after they slighted her great-great-great grandfather?

[Mono Vertigo]

That reminds me of Burn After Reading, but I'm not sure. It was a bloody good movie, though.

Hell yeah! So NSFW, but so good.
To the OP: if you want to make a respectable amount of conspiracies, there's no need to have actual organizations, only a sufficient amount of idiots who believe there is one and act accordingly, to the point the anti-conspiracy is virtually indistinguishable from a real one. That's how it goes in real life, there's no reason it shouldn't happen in a fantasy world with even more potential for wild fantasies.

[Leliel]

Several "shady secret organisations" are really fronts for one, that made them so it would be harder to figure their true plan. If some of those organisations are at war, it's all staged to confuse people who try to undercover the truth.

Uh, no. Precisely what I'm trying to avoid.

Webster's Razor is as dull as the people who apply it to world events here, while Hanlon's is sharp. If this did happen, it's because things got so out of hand that the "fronts" splintered off and became their own organizations before the parent realized what was happening. Yeah, oops.

Here's an arc line for the setting "the truth is stranger than paranoia".

[Darkomn]

I remember reading about a Rogue Trader adventure that followed a similar theme. Basically the heroes have a run-in with a powerful secret organization and quickly find out that the "master minds" are super incompetent and somewhat directionless, but the organization still proves to be a threat once the heroes discover that the only reason everything hasn't collapsed is that the underlings are hypercomeptent and just don't know there isn't really a master plan.

[Mastikator]

They're in the open, doing it openly, and they've manipulated the legal and political system to make it legal with a combination of regulatory-capture and lobbying. Since the conspiracy is in the open it becomes boring and nobody bothers to find out about them.

[Jothki]

How about a secretive, highly decentralized conspiracy that spends most of its time feuding with another secretive, highly decentralized conspiracy that no one actually realizes is the same conspiracy that they're a part of. There's no underlying motive, just everyone refusing to communicate details in order to protect the conspiracy. Members might spend the morning actively thwarting each other, then brag about their accomplishments in protecting the world from evil in generalized terms over lunch.

[McNum]

Truth stranger than paranoia? So are the conspiracies supposed to be known, or still kept secret?

It might be a fun twist to have some open conspiracies, so to speak. Like Area 51. Everyone knows there's a secret military base out there in Nevada. So take that one step further. Like everyone knows that's where they keep the flying saucer. Of course, then it really turns out that there are no aliens there, never were, but instead it's where the government has its transhumanistic experiments. Cyborgs, psionics, mind-uploading. but no one thinks of that, because the flying saucers and aliens are a a close enough coverup that it explains all the weird noises.

The aliens are kept elsewhere, of course. Like Greenland. They like it cold.

Another fun angle on that is taking a classic masquerade and just making it completely mundane and public knowledge. Vampires are real! Well, yeah, Frank over there is one, he has the ID card and everything. Lets him order a glass of blood at the bar, and no one bats an eye. Special UV filtering materials have been made for the sake of vampire comfort and there's a whole set of businesses catering to them. Basically, you kill the conspiracy dead by making it so mundane it gets boring.

And of course, the Cassandra Truth conspiracy. Where it's told completely honest, and no one believes it because it sounds so implausible. Dragons run the banks! "Sure they do. And gnomes run the mail! You expect me to believe that nonsense?!" (Actually, the gnomes run several successful logistics companies, but that's still secret. But, yes, dragons DO run the banks.)

Conspiracies are fun when you twist them. I like the idea of a conspiracy running an incompetent version of itself as a decoy. Maybe a band of the same name. A loud one.

[Ravens_cry]

Yeah, I like the idea that the conspiracy theories, if they have any truth to them, it's purely coincidence.
Area 51 is a skunk works where, as in our world, they test and build experimental aircraft.
Now, some of them might have inspirations and technology gleaned from alien encounters, but nobody stores flying saucers there.
In fact, alien spacecraft aren't even shaped like saucers.
The laws of aerodynamics are universal, and saucer shape is a pretty bad shape for any species that can't fly with its head in a sickie bag.