OOTS #1041 - The Discussion Thread

[Gift Jeraff]

Nice strip. Definitely my favorite of the 1000s so far.

I had to open this comic and #1039 at the same time to be sure it was showing the MITD painting multiple doors. The green double doors are the ones the team went through; the small door above it already had an X in strip 1039, and the green and yellow doors the left are out-of-panel in strip 1039 so we don't know if they had Xs before, but the brown double door to the right was definitely painted by MITD to trick the others, since it didn't have an X before.

Couldn't you just look at the first panel in the third row of #1041?

[Kantaki]

Every time Greyview speaks, he sounds less like a philosopher and more like an edgy faux nihilist teenager.

I'm not sure if there is that much of a difference.At least for some branches of philosophy

[JessmanCA]

what if, to unlock the way to the gate, they have to clear out All the doors?

[Jasdoif]

Considering the number of people on this forum who suggested that Xykon and Redcloak should be looking somewhere other than the doors before they ever went into a door on-panel, I don't know why you're so certain that, if they get to the end and haven't found the Gate, they will immediately start right over searching the doors, or why or how you would think they'd notice they haven't been through them all and suspect foul play....

I suspect the course of events, should Team Evil get all the doors marked without finding the Gate, would involve a thorough rescouting of the surrounding area.

And if that failed to turn anything up, some sort of argument between Xykon and Redcloak centered on Xykon claiming Redcloak is stalling for something, followed by Redcloak reminded Xykon who exactly deciphered the location from Serini's diary and

Spoiler: Start of Darkness

Show

discovered there were multiple Gates in the first place

. Probably followed by general grumbling, an offhanded insult about wanting to search the doors again, a retort about how neither of them have anything better to do it, and a renewed search of the doors.


Narratively, I expect the timing of the sequence to be such that OotS has an obvious path to Team Evil whenever they arrive at Kraagor's Tomb (or Monster Hollow if you prefer). Possibly because Team Evil will be at the Gate after they find it, possibly because they'll be actively searching in plain view for the Gate, and possibly because they were being trailed (via divination and/or vampire).

And we don't KNOW that this is not still Girard's illusion either, but somehow I feel quite confident in saying it isn't.

I know someone who's also quite confident about it!

[Kish]

Really? I don't think so. Redcloak has occasionally bossed Xykon around, though it is usually the other way.

Seriously? You kind of didn't get the point of Xykon's deciding that they would immediately teleport away from the Order at Girard's Gate, or for that matter of Redcloak still having only one eye, at all, did you? Xykon delegates what he finds boring to his slave and cares enough about conquering the world to listen to Redcloak most of the time; that doesn't change the fact that Redcloak is his slave.

That being said, the math here is simple... they seem to be doing 1 door per day. They have an idea of how many doors there are. The number of doors painted in this script was considerably higher than the number of doors visited (1). It really doesn't take a genius to figure out that "hey, we didn't do hundreds of doors in less than a month..." Even Xykon would realize this.

What? If you think they've explored a grand total of one door so far and the creature in the darkness painted all the other doors that have Xs on them, you should really reread the last few strips.

The number of new doors painted in this strip...was four (4), counting the one they just explored. The creature in the darkness painting hundreds of doors today is something you're making up.

[hroþila]

I know someone who's also quite confident about it!

Obvious misdirection. He ain't gonna give it away, is he!

*cough*

[Kish]

Every time Greyview speaks, he sounds less like a philosopher and more like an edgy faux nihilist teenager.

I'm uncertain whether to be glad you see him that way now, or to say, "He didn't sound like an edgy faux-nihilist teenager as soon as he started talking?"

(Seriously, the "Greyview as philosopher" thing was always confounding. "Nothing matters" isn't suddenly profound because you use the phrase "icy jaws of death" while saying it.)

[Darth Paul]

The great thing about the Thing Under the Umbrella is that if called out about this in a future episode, Xykon may not be sure whether he's using Obfuscating Stupidity to defend himself, or the genuine article.

[ishnar]

Sabatogong the search...this is definitely clever, but risky. If he doesn't x off the correct door then he'll make Team Evil find the right path that much faster.

You're making the same mistake that team evil is making. Assuming that the right path is a specific dungeon.

This ordeal might actually require that EVERY dungeon is cleared.

[heroicknight]

First time posting (hi everyone!) because I got interested in the probability debate. I muddled over it for a bit before realizing a perfectly simple explanation and concluded that MitD is sabotaging the effort. Here's my reasoning:

For argument's sake, let's assume that there are 500 doors, and that Team Evil searches at a rate of 1 door per day and that 1 door holds the gate. Given this, they will most definitely find the gate by day 500.

Now let's introduce the "independent variable": for every 1 door that Team Evil searches, MitD chooses some number of doors (the number is not important, only that he chooses, but for simplicity sake's let's say he marks off 4 doors). What this means is that they go through the doors at the rate of 5 doors per day, taking 100 days to finish. Now we have to ask ourselves, "Can we say that Team Evil will most definitely find the gate in 100 days?". Of course not because MitD have a chance (in fact a much greater, 80% chance) of marking the gate than Team Evil finding it (20%). Now let's expand this question to 200 days, in which they fail and start over once. The math gets a bit too complicated for words at this point so I will not go into detail. But know this: if there is an 80% of Team Evil failing to find the gate in 100 days, this 80% carries over when they start over for the next 100 days. What this means is that should they search for 300, 400, or even 1000 days, MitD's actions eternally give a chance of failure whereas without this "independent variable" Team Evil would most definitely succeed within 500 days.

For those curious (and given my limited knowledge of how the math should work out) the probability of Team Evil finding the gate within 500 days, given the above criteria, lies somewhere close to 67%; in other words, a far cry from the most definite 100% they would have had if they were leisurely choosing 1 door a day without interruption.

Note: For those interested in how I got 67%, I used a binomial distribution, X~Bin(5, 0.2); P(X>0). This is not the most accurate way to model the scenario, but it's the best estimate I can come up with. The true probability is most likely higher. But the point here is that MitD is having an impact by increasing the chances of Team Evil's failure...

If not for that fact that the Giant controls the true probability at the whims of his pen.

[M84]

Kudos to MitD for figuring out that Redcloak and Xykon actually finding the Gate would mean bad times for everyone.

It's kind of a shame that MitD doesn't try the more direct approach -- it's probably strong enough to get rid of Redcloak or Xykon.

Also, Xykon is actually becoming stronger? That's...very, very bad.

[JessmanCA]

Simplest case of MitD's gambit I can think of (assuming the monsters respawn and team evil can't remember the doors):

xtd

x=properly painted door they just exited
t=true door
d=door

Team evil has a 50% chance of finding the true door tomorrow, and a 50% chance of wasting 1 day.

If MitD paints 1 random door, possibilities are:

xxd
xtx

Team evil has a 50% chance of finding the true door tomorrow, and a 50% chance of wasting 1 day and then starting over which means they potentially waste up to 2 more days.

Conclusion: he is helping the odds of Team good, intentionally or not if he is painting random doors.

Only alternative I can think of is: he knows the true door and is helping team evil narrow it down faster .

[Idiotic_Bird]

MitD, nice one!

[Darkhands]

This is potentially huge MiTD info...

"Gate? What gate?" has a whole new potential meaning. It's always been assumed that the MiTD can't perceive the gates for one reason or another. Now, perhaps he can, and in fact has known all about them all along.

The context of the phrase now potentially goes from "I don't know what you mean" to "I am actively deceiving you".

[Aestivus]

I haven't read the entire thread yet, so somebody may have said this already:

One (more obscure) option is that MitD already knows where the gate is. For some nefarious reason he doesn't want Team Xykon to find out, so instead he is painting several doors at a time to hasten their arrival at the gate.

This probably isn't the case, but it is an interesting possibility which if true makes MitD a baddy after all.

[Ruck]

The great thing about the Thing Under the Umbrella is that if called out about this in a future episode, Xykon may not be sure whether he's using Obfuscating Stupidity to defend himself, or the genuine article.

Yeah, I was definitely thinking that if the Monster gets caught, he can just be like, "Oh, whoops! I was having so much fun painting that I forgot where I was supposed to stop!" and Xykon and Redcloak would buy it.

[Gluteus_Maximus]

I see a couple different views here.
1. LOTS of people think that this is sabotage, given the nervous talking and the painting on 6 different doors instead of just the one.
2. A few people just think it's due to him being really dumb.
I can see both of these as being possible, but I have my own opinion.
3. The doors are connected somehow? Maybe? (Jeez, now that I've typed it up, it doesn't seem as convincing)
The fact that there's no set of footsteps can mean a few things.
1. MitD has climb speed, considering they were still withing eyesight for him to yell "wait up!"
2. Same thing as #1, but he has flying or levitation speed
3. He has really long arms.
Also, he's holding the Umbrella, Brush, and Paint Bucket all in what seems to be different hands. He could also be doing 1 of these 2 things:
1. He's hooked the paint bucket on the Umbrella, but this would either mean he's holding it with his left hand and putting it over his right shoulder OR he has 2 right arms, which is unlikely.
2. He's holding the umbrella in his mouth, which could happen because his mouth might be pretty far below his eyes.
Great comic as always.

[KorvinStarmast]

I conclude that he has either so many hit points, or such a high armor class, that he doesn't need to dodge any attack ... or that nothing is able to attack him.

Belkar did a bunch of stabbity stab and he didn't even twitch. "Nothing is able to attack him" is close to the mark.

@Kish: telekinesis. That's what came to mind with no further footprints.

[theasl]

Also, he's holding the Umbrella, Brush, and Paint Bucket all in what seems to be different hands. He could also be doing 1 of these 2 things:
1. He's hooked the paint bucket on the Umbrella, but this would either mean he's holding it with his left hand and putting it over his right shoulder OR he has 2 right arms, which is unlikely.
2. He's holding the umbrella in his mouth, which could happen because his mouth might be pretty far below his eyes.

Or it could be a magical levitating umbrella which just floats above him at all times, I don't know if there's anything contradicting that anywhere.

[LuisDantas]

Am I the first to notice that if Xykon is "actually gaining XP" then it must follow that Redcloak is gaining XP as well, and therefore bridging the gap in levels between the two?

For that matter, the same must be true of Oona and her hound. Perhaps of the MitD as well, although for all we know he is of a higher level than Xykon himself.

I really like this new art. Xykon's head just looks so much better now.

[Lkctgo]

I know that MITD is being subtle. But seeing how it had a change of heart, why not just murder redcloak. It's willing to kill (probably) good aligned monsters.... but not xykon or redcloak?

[Kish]

Perhaps of the MitD as well, although for all we know he is of a higher level than Xykon himself.

More of a consideration is that the creature in the darkness may be standing back and watching and thus not getting XP.

[eilandesq]

Am I the first to notice that if Xykon is "actually gaining XP" then it must follow that Redcloak is gaining XP as well, and therefore bridging the gap in levels between the two?

For that matter, the same must be true of Oona and her hound. Perhaps of the MitD as well, although for all we know he is of a higher level than Xykon himself.

I really like this new art. Xykon's head just looks so much better now.

We know that Xykon has a minimum level of 21 (because he can cast epic level spells), and probably higher than that (a typical guess is level 26 because of some of the feats he's been seen using). Add the lich level adjustment of +4, and Xykon probably has an effective level of somewhere between 25 and 30. Redcloak is at minimum level 17 (since we've seen him cast implosion, a level 9 spell), and might have a level adjustment from wearing the Mantle. Xykon only gains XP from monsters 7 CR lower than him or higher, so CR 18 minimum and possibly as high as 23. Bottom line is that any monster that Xykon gets XP for killing is going to give Redcloak and the others *lots* of XP--and even the monsters too weak to give Xykon XP will probably give the others substantial experience. The gap may indeed be closing, and rather quickly.

[The Artisan]

Why do people think what MitD is doing is clever or subtle? The first few pages of this thread said that a lot... It won't be long before Redcloak looks at the wall of doors and goes, "I'm pretty sure we've only been doing this for X weeks. Why are over half the doors marked?"

[Reathin]

My only concern is if he didn't manage to mark the one with the Gate, he's just narrowed the search by days.

Still, brave move Monster-san.

[Forikroder]

Why do people think what MitD is doing is clever or subtle? The first few pages of this thread said that a lot... It won't be long before Redcloak looks at the wall of doors and goes, "I'm pretty sure we've only been doing this for X weeks. Why are over half the doors marked?"

this time they only tackled one but that doesnt mean its a hard fast rule, plus that would require him to actually count the X's which he is unlikely to do unless he suspects someone is Xing on purpose

plus thje MiTD said "can i do the pain this time" and then Xykon hands it over so its likely this was the firs time he had this opportunity

[Anarion]

Fun with paints, and fun with being ignored. I wonder what MitD actually wants now. Maybe he knows that stalling is important.

[Wildroses]

I hope Team Evil don't blow up when they discover the sabotage. Even if they buy the I am incredibly stupid defence what if they are so furious they attack him or kick him out? Actually it could be interesting to see how well he can take an epic level Lich now I think about it.

I seriously doubt Team Evil are going to have time to search the unmarked doors before Lien and O-Chul arrive so I don't see the point in arguing whether or not the monster did something helpful or not. I wonder what will happen when they do? Will O-Chul try to make contact?

[Ruck]

I know that MITD is being subtle. But seeing how it had a change of heart, why not just murder redcloak. It's willing to kill (probably) good aligned monsters.... but not xykon or redcloak?

I actually don't think we've seen MITD attack anyone with intent to harm this entire comic. He's probably relatively peaceful and non-confrontational. Starting a fight with the other members of Team Evil would open up a whole big can of worms (especially since, if he couldn't kill him immediately, he'd had to deal with both Redcloak and Xykon).

[wyrmhole]

Technically, that's not accurate. They don't need to search all the doors, they only need to search as many as it takes for them to find the gate, assuming its behind a door. Now while in the long run it is more likely than not that the MITD will cover the correct gate this way far sooner than Team Evil picks that door, until that actually happens, Pendell is correct and the MITD is simply narrowing down the number of wrong options to pick from. Its a calculated risk not guaranteed to stop them, but it is more likely than not to do so.

It's not a long vs short term play. Every step is the same -- when MitD marks a door that hasn't been entered, it reduces the chances of Team Evil finding the gate without having to start over, and increases the expected amount of time until Team Evil does find the gate. The odds that the gate is behind any specific door they might pick don't change, but the odds that the correct door isn't one they can pick go up.

The way to think about it is to remember that you don't know where the gate is, so there's no special point where MitD "locks out" Evil. There's just the two sets of doors we know about: unchecked doors, and unmarked doors, with the latter becoming a decreasing subset of the former. The gate can be behind any unchecked door, so the odds that the gate is behind an unmarked door go down with every falsely-marked door.