Midwest Mafia/Werewolf

[Mrs McGinty]

gg JeenLeen

I guess I'll be a major wagon again today, what with two dead townies making me a top suspect, one of whom I helped lynch and the other who kept viewing me scummy after I towncored them.

Nevertheless, I'm going to try for a total reset of my views of other players at this stage, rereading the thread and doing ISOs on everyone.

What I'm not going to do is stop moving my vote around as I see fit, no matter how scummy some people see it.

First up is Lex-Kat - your ISO took five seconds and there's nothing I could call townie. What can you do to convince me I'm barking up the wrong tree here?

Edit:

I'm going to work my way up from the bottom of the postcount list. I usually do ISOs this way as either alignment, and there's usually someone who thinks it looks scummy. If so, that is fine.

What I'd ask you all not to do is tell me that I'm playing the game badly by doing it this way. Maybe I am, maybe I'm not, but it won't help me to keep my eye on the ball if I'm getting drawn into a defence of my methods.

[Xihirli]

My read’s still the same. Newbie wolf piled onto the McGinty wagon, then jumped off once that was being called suspicious. Gonna vote for the same person once I’m off mobile.

[Valmark]

To be fair, given Unavenger's outburst I'm not entirely sure it can be used as good reference. And it kind of strikes me as odd that JeenLeen would get killed by their suspects- that's a bit too obvious. I do imagine that with six votes there must be at least a wolf, but I'm not sure I want to target those three specific people.

Especially since two of the three called out (Not sure why the others on the wagon weren't, maybe because they kept out of the argument? Gotta re-read to be sure) previously risked a lynch. I'm not going to disregard it obviously, especially since Caoimhin was already in my sights, but still.

As of now I'm going to reiterate Gac3, since if they die and are revealed Town then Aventine gets free too in my eyes (I suspect them only because their defence of Gac3 doesn't look very reasoned- if Gac3 is town I doubt a wolf would stick out their neck like that), but in case a wagon on one of my other suspects (well, main suspects) picks up (Aventine, Lex-Kat, CaoimhinTheCape) it's likely that I'll switch my vote to try and lynch them.

Of course it's start of Day 2- there's plenty that can happen.

- - - Updated - - -

NOTE: The fact that I've got four people I'm willing to lynch doesn't mean the rest are considered Town- just that they are less likely to be wolves, for now. I highly doubt I can identify four wolves in a single day, especially since we don't actually know how many there are. We don't know, right?

If there are three of them than at least one on that list is wrong :p

[Snowblaze]

Right... Analysis time!

So... Unavenger was acting very suspiciously, and I think there were a lot of townies on their wagon. But there could also be some opportunistic wolves there. Or some wolves going against the wagon for town points (Valmark?) Here's my suspect list, in order from least to most suspicious.

gac3: I'm not convinced that they're a wolf, but they have posted slightly suspicious things (see my reads list from day one) so it's worth considering.

CaoimhinTheCape: unvoted without saying anything, which was seen as suspicious - but given they haven't played on this forum could just be unfamiliarity with how we do things. Was on both the suspicious inactive wagon and the confirmed town wagon, but gets a pass because self-preservation. Mildly suspicious.


Valmark: see yesterday. Also deliberately avoided the Unavenger wagon - could be a wolf trying to gain town credit. Or could be my paranoia speaking.

Duck999: put the fifth vote on the inactive wagon, and must have been paying at least some attention to know Logan hadn't posted.

Libro: was on the suspicious wagons. I'll let them off on Logan because it was the first vote and not intended to start a wagon, but their rapid switching from Caoimhin to Unavenger makes me think they could be a wolf.

AvatarVecna: The main read I'm getting is "they're AV" but I also think they could be a wolf, having been on both the confirmed town wagon and the inactive wagon, and pushing both into lynch contention.

Overall I'd be happy to put pressure on any of those at the moment, but AV is my prime suspect right now.

[Duck999]

I guess I'll be a major wagon again today, what with two dead townies making me a top suspect, one of whom I helped lynch and the other who kept viewing me scummy after I towncored them.

It's a newbie wolf mistake to lynch someone who has the right suspects so early on. I feel like chances are Jeenleen wasn't right if the wolves were willing to take that kill. On the other hand, I could totally see someone like McGinty using exactly this as a defense after killing someone with accurate reads. At that point it's just WIFOM though and not helpful. I'm just not a fan of the "I'm going to be a big wagon today" outlook you're taking.

As of now I'm going to reiterate Gac3, since if they die and are revealed Town then Aventine gets free too in my eyes (I suspect them only because their defence of Gac3 doesn't look very reasoned- if Gac3 is town I doubt a wolf would stick out their neck like that), but in case a wagon on one of my other suspects (well, main suspects) picks up (Aventine, Lex-Kat, CaoimhinTheCape) it's likely that I'll switch my vote to try and lynch them.

I don't like this. Why vote for someone who might be town just to clear one of your main suspects? Why not just push for the main suspect, especially this early in the day when there's time for them to create some kind of response. Maybe I'm misreading this, but it seems a strange way to vote this early in the day. For now, I'll await a response from Valmark, though this is very subject to change.

[Snowblaze]

Just realised I forgot something:

Spoiler: Day One Vote Count

Show

Mrs McGinty 1 (gac3)

Aventine 1 (kgato503)

Logan1996 1 (Duck999)

Rogue_alchemist 1 (Aventine)

CaoimhinTheCape 3 (Xihirli, Unavenger, JeenLeen)

gac3 3 (rogue_alchemist, Captain Cap, Valmark)

Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)

Unavenger 6 (Snowblaze, Mrs McGinty, Libro, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Aventine)

Didn't post: Logan1996

(Note: this is different from Caerulea's because it counts votes after EOD.

@Duck999, why did you join the Logan wagon?

[Valmark]

I don't like this. Why vote for someone who might be town just to clear one of your main suspects? Why not just push for the main suspect, especially this early in the day when there's time for them to create some kind of response. Maybe I'm misreading this, but it seems a strange way to vote this early in the day. For now, I'll await a response from Valmark, though this is very subject to change.

Uhm, did you read my posts from day 1? Ever since, like, Gac3's first post I've been suspicious of them, reiterating that thought every time something came up. I'm saying that my suspicion of Aventine are dependant on Gac3 being wolf- which means that if they are Town it's unlikely that Aventine is a wolf.

I'm gonna assume you didn't know since you weren't very active Day 1, thought it could be wrong. From what I understand you are generally little active, so it's more likely you didn't know or didn't remember.

- - - Updated - - -

Just realised I forgot something:

Spoiler: Day One Vote Count

Show

Mrs McGinty 1 (gac3)

Aventine 1 (kgato503)

Logan1996 2 ( Valmark, Duck999)

Rogue_alchemist 1 (Aventine)

CaoimhinTheCape 3 (Xihirli, Unavenger, JeenLeen)

gac3 3 (rogue_alchemist, Captain Cap, Valmark)

Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)

Unavenger 6 (Snowblaze, Mrs McGinty, Libro, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Aventine)

Didn't post: Logan1996

(Note: this is different from Caerulea's because it counts votes after EOD.

@Duck999, why did you join the Logan wagon?

Didn't I vote for Gac3 after EOD (not sure what it means but I'm assuming you mean past the dealine?)

- - - Updated - - -

I'll put a vote on Gac3 because they are still my top suspect. Unavenger... After re-reading it really feels like someone throwing a fit. Which means, at least to me, that it's unreliable for determining their allegiance, since people get angry all the same beyond their factions.

Yes I did. Also @Duck999, it's clearly Gac3 the top of my main suspects :p

[Snowblaze]

I have you down as voting gac3... but also as voting Logan. Will fix that.

[Mrs McGinty]

Post-by-post analysis on low posters: Elenna, rogue_alchemist, Duck999, Lex-Kat, Libro, kgato503.

Spoiler

Show

Elenna
#83. No vote, no game-relevant content.

Scummy by default, but pointless voting here until we see something more.
Edit: I am an unobservant fool and must read player lists more carefully in future.

rogue_alchemist
#105 - Votes gac3 'just to have a vote'.

Scummy by default, but pointless voting here until we see something more.


Duck999
#148 - Talks about general d1 meta. Votes Logan for not posting. Words-to-content ratio and lack of specifics suggest unwillingness to commit until thread easier to predict. Scummy opener.

#168 - Response to kgato, suggesting little point to doing anything d1. Mistaken, imo, but NAI.

#233 - Asks if night talking is allowed. Gets affirmative answer but posts no more. Could be scum trying to show some signs of activity, but probably NAI.

Very little to work with, and what there is could easily be from scum. Could vote here if no improvement today.


Lex-Kat
#8 - Joke vote for McGinty

#14 - explanation of joke vote

#65 - reply to McGinty comment about use of the word 'scum'

#159 - vote for Valmark to keep McGinty alive; no other reasons given

What little there is looks bad. Fits a profile of scum interactions with me I've encountered in the past. Comfortable leaving my vote here for now.


Libro
#60 - roleplay opener with vote for Logan

#129 - ditches roleplay (= mildly scummy); responds to Aventine remark about Valmark vote count thing; indicates willingness to switch vote to save McGinty; notes Logan and Duck are yet to post

#189 - explains lurking to Unavenger; dislikes how Logan became a wagon despite being afk; votes Caoimhin to avoid a tie (?); expresses difficulty at keeping up with speed of thread

#205 - votes Unavenger for feeling fishy and displaying either bad logic or bad intent

#223 - answers Caoimhin inquiry about switch from Logan; restates original explanation, including no apparent reason why the switch was onto Caoimhin

Plausible reactions and thought processes, with little evident concern about looking suspicious. Would not require a high level of skill to fake this, though.


kgato503
#25 - questions gac's reasoning on JeenLeen and Snowblaze; votes AvatarVecna for self-voting and tradition (?)

#28 - agrees with Valmark on gac sus, but giving a early pass because the latter hosted last (?)

#94 - explains gac bit to Snowblaze; bit waffly here

#166 & #167 - big analysis posts; content decent enough on superficial read; timing and concentration of analysis could indicate desire for image control; votes Aventine, but very hedgy with it

Sitting somewhere close to null for now. Deeper review of those two big posts and any activity today will be needed to get a better read.

Overambitious to do list for tonight:

1) ISOs for Sorting - gac3, Captain Cap, Xihirli, CaoimhimTheCape, Aventine, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna, Valmark

2) Posts to Review - #166, #167

3) Full d1 Reread

4) ISOs for Perspective - Unavenger, JeenLeen

Gonna need some beer for this, I think.

[Snowblaze]

Um... Elenna isn't playing.

[Mrs McGinty]

lolme for that, then

It's a newbie wolf mistake to lynch someone who has the right suspects so early on. I feel like chances are Jeenleen wasn't right if the wolves were willing to take that kill. On the other hand, I could totally see someone like McGinty using exactly this as a defense after killing someone with accurate reads. At that point it's just WIFOM though and not helpful. I'm just not a fan of the "I'm going to be a big wagon today" outlook you're taking.

I'm just saying what I see in the current game state and my place in it. Personally, I find it helpful when others explain stuff like this, wifom or not, as it helps me to follow their thought processes.

[Valmark]

Um... Elenna isn't playing.

Had been this day 1 I'd be tempted to vote for her now.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Wagons Table

Show

Post	AvatarVecna	Aventine	CaoimhinTheCape	Captain Cap	Duck999	gac3	JeenLeen	kgato503	Lex-Kat	Libro	Logan1996	Mrs McGinty	rogue_alchemist	Snowblaze	Unavenger	Valmark	Xihirli
2	1
3	2
4	2					1
6	3					1
7	3					1								1
8	3					1						1		1
11	3					1						1		1			1
12	3					1						1		2			1
17	3					1			1			1		2			1
21	3					1	1		1			1		2			1
25	4					1	1		1			1		2			1
29	4					1	1					1		3			1
30	3	1				1	1					1		3			1
40	3	2				1	1					1		2			1
45	3	1				1	2					1		2			1
46	3	1				1	2					2		2			1
47	3	1					2					3		2			1
49	3	1					2					4		2			1
60	3	1					2				1	4		2			1
61	2	1					2				1	4	1	2			1
62	2	1	1				2				1	4	1	2
76	1	1	1		1		2				1	4	1	2
81	1	1	1		1		1				1	5	1	2
87	1	1	1		1						1	5	1	2		1
101	1	1	1		1			1			1	5	1	2
105	1	1	1		1	1		1			1	5	1	2
108	1	1	2		1	1		1			1	5	1	1
111	1	1	2		1	1		1			1	6	1
113	1	1	2			1		1			1	6	1
117	1	1	2		1	1		1			1	5	1
119	1	1	3		1	1		1			1	5	1
120	1	1	3			1		1			2	5	1
122	1	1	4			1		1			2	4	1
128	1	1	4			1		1			2	3	1
137	1	1	3			1		2			2	3	1
138	1	1	2			1		2			3	3	1
142	1	1	1			1		2			4	3	1
148	1	1	1			1		2			5	3	1
149	1	1	1			1		2			6	3
159	1	1	1			1		2			6	2				1
167		2	1			1		2			6	2				1
169		2	1			1		1			6	2	1			1
171		1	1			1		1			6	2	1		1	1
175		1	1			1					6	2	1		2	1
180		1	2			1					5	2	1		2	1
184		1	2			2					5	2	1		2	1
188		1	3			2					5	1	1		2	1
189			4			2					5	1	1		2	1
204			4			2					5	1	1		2	1
205			3			2					5	1	1		3	1
206			3			2					4	1	1		4	1
208			3			2					3	1	1		5	1
227			3			2					3	1			6	1
230			3			3					2	1			6	1

Spoiler: Gut Feelings at this time

Show

AvatarVecna: 100% scum, as always. Untrustworthy.

Aventine: Feels like they're really thinking things through, even if we don't always agree on the conclusions. Time will tell though.

CaoimhinTheCape: Nothing Cao's done makes me suspect them specifically, but being one of the big wagons D1 who ended up not getting lynched means I'm gonna be looking at them a lot more closely for the rest of the game.

Captain Cap: Quiet. Too new to make a judgement call on what that means.

Duck999: Veteran player, super-quiet D1. Been too long since I played with Duck to know what that means.

gac3: Quiet, and I don't like that. I'm used to seeing some decent activity from gac3, even on D1. Slight wolf lean.

JeenLeen: Confirmed town by death/narrator.

kgato503: Quiet, as always. Impossible to say what that means right now. ISO might help a bit.

Lex-Kat: Veteran player, jokey D1 but kinda quiet. Been too long since I played with Lex to know what that means.

Libro: More or less what I'm used to from Libro - decent activity but nothing super-noteworthy in quantity or quality. Slight town lean, but that's just my gut talking.

Logan1996: Inactive. "Useless" carries stronger connotations than I really mean to imply here, but it's the right ballpark. Unless they jump in today with some absurdly-valuable insights, the most useful thing Logan can do is die so we can use that to analyze the D1 wagon on them.

Mrs McGinty: Strong wolf lean. Too much jumping around, getting weird vibes off her. That her death would also give us a lot of D1 information makes her a decent lynch choice even if I'm wrong (in a "best of the worst" kinda way).

rogue_alchemist: A single post isn't much to go on, and as far as single posts go there's barely anything to it. I'm used to this kinda activity from RA, but it's not helpful.

Snowblaze: Getting bad flashbacks from the last game Snowblaze was super-active in. Slight wolf lean.

Unavenger: Confirmed town by death/narrator.

Valmark: High quantity average quality. At least so far it doesn't feel like they're playing us.

Xihirli: 100% scum, as always. Untrustworthy. Okay I don't have any specific bad feelings from this game, it's more just a general assumption regarding Xihirli.

PLacing a vote on Mrs McGinty for now. Might move it later.

[Mrs McGinty]

Since it seems to be a core element of the suspicions I've faced, can someone explain why changing votes a lot is considered to be so scummy?

I've not seen this take on any other site, and it seems quite arbitrary to me.

Edit: I've checked back, and I think I switched 6 times, which wouldn't be unusual for me given my post count. One thing that's making it hard to understand the problem here is that I don't think anyone has pointed at any particular switch as being suspect, so I'm left with the impression that it's just the number that matters. Is it that people think votes should only be used to express a lynch preference, and that I couldn't possibly have changed my preference so many times?

[Valmark]

Since it seems to be a core element of the suspicions I've faced, can someone explain why changing votes a lot is considered to be so scummy?

I've not seen this take on any other site, and it seems quite arbitrary to me.

If I'm not wrong it's because it can be a way to spread confusion and appear invested without doing anything noteworthy. Hopefully the experienced ones can answer better/correctly.

[AvatarVecna]

Since it seems to be a core element of the suspicions I've faced, can someone explain why changing votes a lot is considered to be so scummy?

I've not seen this take on any other site, and it seems quite arbitrary to me.

Changing votes frequently doesn't necessarily mean anything. Changing votes frequently, and the motivation feels thin...that's somebody jumping around not because they feel their vote is needed elsewhere, but because they actually care much who gets lynched. Wolves can change votes freely more or less since they know who they don't want dead and everybody else is kosher - villagers switch for reasons (bad reasons, perhaps, but stronger reasons), or they don't switch at all because it's D1 and it barely ever matters what you do because a townie ends up swinging 99% of the time. D1 is for joke votes and analysis later in the game, usually.

Using myself as an example, I was self-voting as a joke for awhile, switched to Duck for a slight pressure vote, switched to Cao because their actions pinged my scumdar, and switched to Logan as another pressure vote once Cao explained themselves sufficiently. Unavenger was pinging my scumdar at one point (which I posted about to signal my suspicion, so that it wouldn't go completely uncommented), but I didn't switch at that point because switching from Logan to Unavenger would've meant (IIRC) Cao getting lynched instead of either Logan or Unavenger. But once Unavenger got a few votes on them, I was perfectly happy to switch over to my top suspect since it wouldn't be a wasted vote-switch anymore.

...and yeah that last switch ended up definitely being a mistake, and that's a lot of vote-switching for D1, but none of it's unmotivated.

[gac3]

Okay. So I'll be real honest. This stuff blew up so fast. This thread currently has as many pages as a game I've been playing in for months. I had a calculus test Wednesday and am still working full time. So I'll catch up on this thread tonight since I'm off. Then I'll try to come up with some insights. For now I'm following my instincts and saying Mrs. McGinty

[Mrs McGinty]

If I'm not wrong it's because it can be a way to spread confusion and appear invested without doing anything noteworthy. Hopefully the experienced ones can answer better/correctly.

I should hope it's obvious that I don't need to switch votes to appear invested.

As for spreading confusion, I often do aim to create a degree of uncertainty and instability during d1, because in my experience it's the scum who find that hardest to deal with in a game like this (power roles and other mechanics can change that dynamic). By my standards, however, I was actually quite reserved with my chaos-spreading yesterday, aiming mainly just to spur discussion and generate content.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Not an ISO just vote-posts

Show

Snowblaze

Only a villain would pay such close attention to the player list!

D1 joke vote, means nothing.

Ahaha! But only a villain would make so insightful an observation!

Aventine

Switching from a joke vote to another joke vote? I guess that's not too unheard of...

Snowblaze and Aventine can be my towncore.

Disclaimer: Membership of towncore is likely to harm survival chances and will be reviewed under conditions of wild paranoia in the case of members' continued existence much past d1.



JeenLeen

Only a villain could be so explainy!

...another switch from joke to joke. If you're not taking it seriously, why bother changing your vote anyway?

[QUOTE=Mrs McGinty;24415977]

No, I don't want to be lynched.

But the best way I know to generate alignment-indicative content on d1 is to act like I do.

It might help you to understand me if I tell you that the last game I played had more than 900 posts on d1 alone.

I came back here to play a more chilled kind of game, but I still want to make some kind of effort towards winning it, even if it risks me eating a mislynch for my trouble.



Edit: Just in case anyone thinks that makes me look any less villainous, I should now deploy the scummiest statement it is possible to make in mafia:

I would never play like this as scum!

p.s. Are we allowed to call the villains 'scum' here? I seem to recall someone having an issue with it once upon a time, but I'm going to find it hard not to do so given its ubiquity on the other sites I frequent.

[...commenting on this below]

Welcome to my towncore, JeenLeen. Being explainy in the first place was slightly suspect, but now I'm starting to see how your brain works, it makes sense from town.

Now let's go with...

Valmark

Do you have much experience as scum?

Here we are, 86 posts in, and finally the person who's advocating for high activity on the grounds that it leads to good town play has cast a vote that isn't an obvious joke on its face! Better late than never to practice what you preach, right?

Snowblaze, Aventine and JeenLeen are my towncore - I would vote to save them over anyone but myself at this point.

Valmark looks fine - I wouldn't vote there except to save myself or my towncore.

AvatarVecna has a slight scum lean, but is not a lynch priority because being talkative and risk-taking helps keep the content generation up.

I'm a sucker for roleplaying in mafia, so Libro gets a day pass unless the alternative to one of the above.

Everyone else is in the mix, and for now I'm going with:

kgato503

Two posts, either could quite easily be made by a wolf, with no evidence of a genuine solving process yet apparent.

Changing for a reason - not a great one, but it's at least motivated.

Unexpectedly got a bunch of work to do, alongside home-schooling my son and supporting my wife (who's pulling a fourth consecutive 15 hour day of near-continuous phone and video calls), so I won't have much more input today.

For now I'll unvote kgato, who gets a daypass for the reads list (which I've only skimmed, but looks detailed enough), and sheep Snowblaze onto Unavenger, whose contributions so far contain no evidence of townishness that I can discern.

Moving from one non-wagon to another non-wagon. Says nothing about your alignment, since you had no reason to think it'd kick off a wagon.

Far be it from me to claim that acting like you want to get lynched is a sure sign you're a wolf (because if I did, I'd be a giant hypocrite), but quantity isn't a complete replacement for quality, and half these votes are pointless jokes. They don't mean anything, and if your playstyle is motivated by getting town busy talking because more activity is better than less, useful activity is better than useless activity too, yes?

[Xihirli]

I have returned. CaoimhinTheCape

[Mrs McGinty]

@AV

Notice that I ended up town-reading many of the people I voted because of how they responded.

The whole point of the early game for me is to find people who give you positive vibes, and try to build a group whose perspectives you trust more (albeit only a little more) than average. It's not totally reliable, of course, but it's a step up from the random finger pointing that most d1 activity ends up being otherwise.

One thing that's essential, though, is that I'm not going to just carry those reads through to d2. Everything has to be reassessed in a fresh light with host-confirmed info, and that's what I'm up to today. Knowing I was wrong about Unavenger tells me something (mostly about my own failings), and knowing that I was right about JeenLeen tells me other things (that my town reads weren't total junk), and knowing that both were town gives me an idea of how certain kinds of townies are perceiving my play here.

Edit: On useful and non-useful activity, I don't tend to find longer, more involved back-and-forths to be much help at sorting people, at least not until there's some red meat on the table. On d1, I want to flick someone on the nose to see how they react, and jokey votes are a great way of doing that without needing to commit to any kind of judgment in advance (thus avoiding the great beast of bad scumhunting: confirmation bias).

[Captain Cap]

Oh boy, what a day start... let's take a minute of silence for JeenLeen, one of the only two neighbours I was quite positive they weren't a wolf.

At this point, gac3 is still one of my main suspects for the reasons already exposed, and the lack of activity toward the end of the day doesn't mitigate at all my suspicions. (maybe sidelined by the other wolves after that mistake?) (EDIT: didn't see the message of him saying he was busy)

Assuming gac3 is a wolf, let's look again at the incriminating post.

I want to vote Snowblaze... But I doubt they are a wolf again. So I'm going Jeenleen because they make me suspicious. If these bandwagons stay, I'll probably join the Snowblaze one. They tricked everyone last game.

The compromising nature of the message, from my point of view, indicates a certain connection with JeenLeen or Snowblaze. JeenLeen wasn't a wolf, and this leaves Snowblaze.
There are a few other reasons to suspect her as well: the premature vagon on AvatarVecna (with a not particularly strong justification), her defensive attitude at the beginning, the vote on Unavenger at the end (this one, taken alone, doesn't mean much, given the heated argument) and, of course, the execution of JeenLeen.

About the execution of JeenLeen, if Snowblaze was a wolf, it would have been quite incautious from her to kill one of her accusers (especially after that night post), but what if she could send to the slaughterhouse a perfectly raised scapegoat? I'm talking about CaoimhinTheCape, who found himself both in the vagon of Unavenger and in the last suspect list of JeenLeen; not only that, even earlier suspicion about him was fueled, as we can see from the following post from Aventine (whose behavior in the first day was in general quite shady, if you ask me).

Huh. Two more pages and an inexplicable wagon on McGinty. That's...not what I expected to find when I came back. (All that's missing is the Spanish Inquisition).

I like the several votes for quiet people, trying to get them to talk. But picking three or four different quiet people rather than stacking up and putting some actual pressure on feels more like attempts to fly under the radar by avoiding committing to anything while preparing a future defense of "oh, I was pressuring quiet people."

Also tempted to say the McGinty wagon smells like an experienced wolf expressed concern about and/or admiration for her to the other wolves and a less experienced one jumped on the wagon hoping to kill the danger.

I'll poke Caoimhin

If we look both at Snowblaze and Aventine as wolves, an interesting light is shed on their tiff at the beginning of the game, a way to muddy the water, it would seem.

To a lesser extent, Mrs McGinty and AvatarVecna are subjects of my suspicions too: regarding the former, I'm still set on my earlier considerations; the latter has been quite unreadable for me during the first day (this kind of ambiguity bugs me), but the way she jumped on the Unavanger train right after CaoimhinTheCape (scapegoat?) got me thinking.

[AvatarVecna]

the latter has been quite unreadable for me during the first day (this kind of ambiguity bugs me), but the way she jumped on the Unavanger train right after CaoimhinTheCape (scapegoat?) got me thinking.

I've explained why I shifted my vote when I did. I can't make you read that explanation, or believe it, but the post record will show I was suspicious before there was even a single vote on Unavenger, and the vote record will show that switching my vote at that point in time would've resulted in a third party getting lynched instead of either the person I switched from or switched to. It wasn't a good decision, but it was a townie move through and through.

[Captain Cap]

I've explained why I shifted my vote when I did. I can't make you read that explanation, or believe it, but the post record will show I was suspicious before there was even a single vote on Unavenger, and the vote record will show that switching my vote at that point in time would've resulted in a third party getting lynched instead of either the person I switched from or switched to. It wasn't a good decision, but it was a townie move through and through.

I get it, but what I'm finding suspicious in particular is the timing.

This:

I'm game if you are. Unavenger.

exactly after this:

At this point I like an Unavenger vote or maybe Valmark, but I'd also rather not die.

[Mrs McGinty]

I'll be removing irrelevant or repetitious posts from the next batch of ISOs, and posting them as I go rather than dumping a load at a time.

gac3
#21 - sus on Snowblaze, but 'I doubt they are a wolf again'; votes JeenLeen for being suspicious, but says they will probably join the Snowblaze wagon if they stay the same; weird post, no idea what to make of it

#81 - responds to kgato and Snowblaze questioning of above reasons, saying JeenLeen and Snowblaze would be dangerous if wolves; switches vote to McGinty for being odd (or new); still weird, incredibly wolfy on a superficial level, but would a wolf really act like this?

#95 & #97 - further responses to kgato and Snowblaze; distinct sense of confusion in the thought processes here, which is probably more townie than wolfie in itself

---d2

#257 - expresses difficulty in keeping up for RL reasons; votes McGinty again, based on instinct

I would hate to lose to a wolf playing like this, but I've got to try not to let that colour my judgement too much. Leaning confused townie, but if so I'm really hoping we get more to work with soon, or else gac's a no-information mislynch waiting to happen.

[AvatarVecna]

I get it, but what I'm finding suspicious in particular is the timing.

This:


exactly after this:

It's difficult to respond to this without just literally restating what I've already stated about that vote, but sure let's go into more detail about how (as previously stated) that was the time to switch, and that was the reason to switch, you're just seeing it as wolfy rather than townie acting on their legitimate suspicions.

Compiles a list of voting record in a quirky way without actually offering any analysis on it, a classic "look more helpful than you actually are" wolf move.

*squints suspiciously*

This is post #150, my initial suspicion on Unavenger, but I was still waiting on literally anything from Logan before removing pressure.

(Btw here's a hint for your pressure vote on gac3: unless it's actually in danger of getting someone lynched, it's not actually a pressure vote, it's a lifeless vote with delusions of pressure.)

Unave 2 (Mrs McGinty, Snowblaze)
Rogue 1 (Aventine)
Avent 1 (kgato)
Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)
Logan 3 (Duck999, Valmark, Libro)
CaoimhinTheCape 3 (AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Unave)
Mrs McGinty 2 (JeenLeen, gac3)
Gac3 1 (rogue)

Spoiler: Unavenger's Vote Count Was Wrong

Show

Logan1996

CaoimhinTheCape

Mrs. McGinty

gac3

Mrs McGinty

Logan1996

Logan1996[/B]

Logan1996

Logan1996

Valmark

Aventine

rogue_alchemist

Unavenger

Unavenger

CaoimhinTheCape

Hmm.

UVC:

Unave 2 (Mrs McGinty, Snowblaze)
Rogue 1 (Aventine)
Avent 1 (kgato)
Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)
Logan 3 (Duck999, Valmark, Libro)
CaoimhinTheCape 3 (AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Unave)
Mrs McGinty 2 (JeenLeen, gac3)
Gac3 1 (rogue)

This is what Unavenger said the vote count was after counting their own vote for Cao. What I've got recorded as the true vote count at that point is:

Aventine (1): kgato503
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Unavenger, Xihirli
gac3 (1): rogue_alchemist
Logan1996 (5): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Duck999, Libro, Valmark
Mrs. McGinty (2): gac3, JeenLeen
rogue_alchemist (1): Aventine
Unavenger (2): Mrs. McGinty, Snowblaze
Valmark (1): Lex-Kat

This is Unavenger getting the vote count wrong, which prompted a correction from me.

Unavenger posting a bunch of condescending reads telling everyone how badly they're playing this game is deeply wolfy under the circumstances.

I think we're doing good, and the wolves are starting to worry.

Edit: It reads like Unavenger is looking for reasons to criticise people rather than reasons to actually suspect them. It's not a town process, it's an impression of it from a wolf who doesn't know how to fake it properly.

I don't disagree, but I'm also not changing my vote at the moment.

MMG posts a comment on Unavenger's wolfiness, to which I agree without a vote change. The reason is simple:

CaoimhinTheCape (4): JeenLeen, kgato503, Unavenger, Xihirli
gac3 (2): Captain Cap, rogue_alchemist
Logan1996 (5): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Duck999, Libro, Valmark
Mrs McGinty (1): gac3
rogue_alchemist (1): Aventine
Unavenger (2): Mrs McGinty, Snowblaze
Valmark (1): Lex-Kat

Changing my vote from Logan to Unavenger just means Cao/Logan is up for the lynch. At the time, I wasn't necessarily suspicious of Cao anymore. I might've definitely wanted Unavenger lynched at that point, but at that point in time, voting for Unavenger wouldn't accomplish anything but maybe killing somebody I didn't particularly want to see hang. However, my reasons for not switching were obvious (or at least seemed so to me at the time, but I guess it wasn't clear to some people ), so when somebody on either the Cao or Logan wagon offered to switch to Unavenger too, that opened up a path to lynching the person I wanted to lynch, and I switched - even though they hadn't yet, because now I had reason to believe switching to vote Unavenger would actually get them lynched.

[Mrs McGinty]

Captain Cap
#46 - votes McGinty because 'Keeping track of your votes is a real pain'

#128 - removes vote as it 'harmed McGinty more than expected'; notes Caoimhin leaving the wagon for suspect reasons (?); I won't call this outright wolfy, but can see how a wolf might play it like this

#184 - big post; townish reads on JeenLeen and Valmark; null-to-scummy reads on McGinty, Aventine, and Caoihmin; votes gac as 'most suspicious of all'; very hedgy, which isn't necessarily scummy, and suggestions of a solving process; feels a bit too safe for my liking, though, like it's been calculated to avoid suspicion and preserve room for future movement; gac looking like low-hanging fruit at this point doesn't help this impression

#196 & #219 - doesn't want to lynch Caoihmin, and so feels unable to save Logan; apologetically helpless is not a great look at this point

---d2

#262 - big post; votes gac for same reasons as before; starts looking for associatives, reaches suspicions on Snowblaze and Aventine; McGinty and AV also suspect; good start to the day, plausible processes; good play here if scum

#264 - clarification on AV sus

Balances out a notch or two scumside of null. Wouldn't lynch today based on the above, but one to keep a close eye on.

[Captain Cap]

Btw here's a hint for your pressure vote on gac3: unless it's actually in danger of getting someone lynched, it's not actually a pressure vote, it's a lifeless vote with delusions of pressure.

Which pressure vote? I'm going for the lynching.

[Mrs McGinty]

Which pressure vote? I'm going for the lynching.

I like the boldness here.

As much as I'm hesitant about lynching gac, the reasons for doing so are decent enough, and someone ought to be pushing for it right now.

[Captain Cap]

Captain Cap
#46 - votes McGinty because 'Keeping track of your votes is a real pain'

#128 - removes vote as it 'harmed McGinty more than expected'; notes Caoimhin leaving the wagon for suspect reasons (?); I won't call this outright wolfy, but can see how a wolf might play it like this

#184 - big post; townish reads on JeenLeen and Valmark; null-to-scummy reads on McGinty, Aventine, and Caoihmin; votes gac as 'most suspicious of all'; very hedgy, which isn't necessarily scummy, and suggestions of a solving process; feels a bit too safe for my liking, though, like it's been calculated to avoid suspicion and preserve room for future movement; gac looking like low-hanging fruit at this point doesn't help this impression

#196 & #219 - doesn't want to lynch Caoihmin, and so feels unable to save Logan; apologetically helpless is not a great look at this point

---d2

#262 - big post; votes gac for same reasons as before; starts looking for associatives, reaches suspicions on Snowblaze and Aventine; McGinty and AV also suspect; good start to the day, plausible processes; good play here if scum

#264 - clarification on AV sus

Balances out a notch or two scumside of null. Wouldn't lynch today based on the above, but one to keep a close eye on.

Fair analysis, I just wanted to point a few things out about the highlighted point.

The first post (#196) was an answer to Unavenger's judgement of my vote on gac3: he told me it was basically useless, I told him there weren't other options I could contribute at the moment that could possibly lead to a positive outcome from my point of view, so there was no reason for me to change the vote from my main suspect.

The second (#219) was me repeating the same thing to CaoihminTheCape, who came out with the same doubts of Unavenger.

I still defend my position of back then.