Left 4 Dead 3

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Original Recruitment Post

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It's a few months into the zombie apocalypse, and about a week back it seemed like your luck had turned for the better: you and your little bunch of survivors met up with a whole bunch more. You're all watching each other's back, carving a bloody path to a military outpost in Seattle, taking whatever supplies you can find. You haven't lost anybody to the hoards in awhile. But then...a new problem rears it's ugly head.

Notes left behind by other survivors, be they scrawled on walls or journals left behind to keep people informed, make your squad aware that there's two kinds of survivors, both of which are themselves immune to the zombie plague that's claiming the world, but one of which acts as a carrier who can still bring the infection to others while looking completely healthy. The lot of you get to talking, and it seems like everybody suddenly remembers that one time where a helicopter pilot zombified midflight, or where some guy they holed up with for a week turned in the night even though there's no way he'd been bitten the previous day.

The military is more likely to shoot all of them if they've got carriers in the group, just to be safe - they can't go strolling in unless they've already dealth with the problem. Shifting glances and accusations shoot across the safe room for nearly an hour, with long-time allies suddenly unsure of who they can trust, and hurtful words flung at suspects, before everything finally simmers down. In the end, one thing is for sure: the survivors still need to set up night shifts to guard the safe room, and need to get more supplies. A random group of survivors is sent out to fetch supplies, and they keep up the conversation.

This scavenging group soon realizes that all of them are displaying some secondary symptoms of being carriers, and that their presence has been responsible for the various incidents that had been repeated so loudly that night. After some tense discussion, a decision is reached: they'll stick with the main group as long as they can, getting rid of whoever gets too close to truth and covering for each other as best they can. And when the moment is right, and they've gotten far enough, they ditch the rest of them, and the carriers will figure out a way to continue living on their own in no-man's land. Hopefully sometime in the next few weeks they'll find a place worth holing up forever, because who knows how long they can hold off the others from killing them.

Spoiler: Basic Mechanics

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This is a game of Werewolf/Mafia. It functions somewhat like "Among Us", if you are more familiar with that game.

Prior to the game starting, I will randomly assign roles to players from the lists below. The role you receive will define your win condition and what powers you have (if any). If you are a member of the scumteam, you will start the game in secret contact with other carriers, which you can use to discuss strategy without being discovered.

The game will start on a Day Phase; the first Day Phase will last 72 hours, while subsequent ones will last 48 hours. During any Day Phase, all players can vote for who they wish to "lynch" (remove from the game) that phase. Your vote is not set in stone once cast, and you can recast your vote at any time (or even unvote entirely), provided that the phase has not ended. To cast your vote, please bold and color in red the name of the person you wish to vote. It doesn't have to be their forum name proper, or some official "I vote [name]", as long as it's recognizable who you're voting and the formatting has been done.

I'm voting AvatarVecna

AV is acting really sus right now

I saw Vecna perform the nightkill

At the end of the day phase, I'll tally votes, declare how many votes each wagon received. Whichever wagon has the most votes is lynched. I will then inform the other players of that person's role and alignment. If there was a tie between who had the most votes, whichever wagon reaches that vote total first will be the one who gets lynched.

After a Day Phase ends, the game will shift to the Night Phase; all Night Phases will last 24 hours. If you possess a power that lets you target somebody during the Night Phase, this is the time to use it. During this time, the scum team will be able to select a non-scum player to be killed (as well as using whatever other powers they might have as well). After a Night Phase ends, the game will shift to the Day Phase once more.

This cycle will repeat until one of two things happens: either all members of one team or the other is eliminated, or the elimination of all members of one team is inevitable. For example, if you get to a Day Phase with 7 players left (3 town, 4 scum), town has basically already lost, and so a Mercy Rule will be invoked to call the game early instead of making everybody play through the next 120 hours.

Spoiler: Special Rules

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Role Assignment

Role assignment in this game will be a little weirder from how a lot of WW/Mafia games on this site go. There are 20 roles below, with varying powers. Prior to the game starting, I will randomly determine which roles make it into the game, based on how many players sign up. This random role selection can include repeats (such as 13 players having 11 different roles because 2 roles show up twice each), but repeats shouldn't be very likely. From there, I will determine what team each role is on. Some roles are more likely to be town than scum, and vice versa. From there, I will randomly assign roles to players, giving them a QuickTopic thread detailing their role, their alignment, their win condition, and their powers (if any); if you are a member of a faction, you will also receive a faction chat. These QT links (personal and faction) are not to be shared under any circumstances until the game has ended.

This role setup should allow for the possibility of fraudulent claims, and how some claims aren't necessarily a guarantee that you're on town's side.

QuickTopic

This community frequently employs the use of QuickTopic threads for games like this, in order to have private communication between players without the narrator's inbox getting filled up constantly. However, the overuse of QuickTopics by certain individuals (...me, I'm the one who's done this, primarily) has tended to result in them being the center of a great deal of the game's strategy rather than the main game thread, which 1) makes it difficult to gauge the gamestate properly if 90% of the game is occuring in chats you're not in, and 2) makes it basically worthless to try and revisit the game later, since frequently only two QTs will get posted in the main thread (the wolf chat and the dead chat, typically).

So I'm going to be trying out something a bit different this game.

During the Day Phase, you can declare in your personal QT that you wish to sacrifice your vote for the day in order to set up a networking QT with another specific player. At the end of the phase, I will figure out what QTs need to be made, and I will put links in the personal QTs of the player who gave up their vote, and the player who they wished to network with.

During the Night Phase, if you possess an active power, you may instead choose to network with another player, which will function similarly to the above. If you possess a Night Power that lets you see what power another player uses on a given night, and your target makes this trade-off, I will report that the player you targeted used the Network power. The factional kill power of the scumteam can also be sacrificed in this way, if they choose to do so.

This setup should significantly cut down on how many QTs are involved with the game, while still allowing players to privately network for their own gain, regardless of team.

Spoiler: Roles

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In general, Survivor's win condition is to eliminate all Carriers. Carrier's goal is eliminate all Survivors. This does not require your personal survival - if you die, but your faction wins, that generally means that you win too.

Alcoholic
Keeping the hole in your chest filled up with booze has been tough in these hard times, but you always manage to find more. Of course, it's almost always when somebody else is around, and you gotta share with them, but them's the shakes.
5/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Voided, and thus their Night Power (if any) fails to work. If this targets the person using the Carrier's faction kill, the faction kill fails to work as well.

Celebrity
Everybody's heard of you, and they (maybe even unintentionally) try to keep you alive when things start going south.
5/10 Survivor. Your vote counts double (which means you can set up 2 QTs if you wish, although it doesn't mean you can vote for two different people). During the Night Phase, select one player. If both of you are alive during tomorrow's lynch, their vote counts double as well (although they are not informed of this). If it matters for power watchers, this detects as a Rob.

Conspiracy Nut
You are absolutely convinced that you've been receiving messages from the government that you need to sweep these people clean to figure out which of them are Carriers, and dangnabbit you're still a patriot!
10/10 Survivor. At the start of the game, you will be informed that you are the Spy, but in fact you are not. During the Night Phase, target one player other than yourself. That player will detect as a random role. You cannot target the same player more than once. If you die before the Spy does, you will be reported as the Spy; if the Spy dies, I will reveal that your role was in fact the Conspiracy Nut.

Corpsman
You've got some military training, with a particular focus on treating wounds. You're not all that good for identifying symptoms, but you can bring somebody back practically from the brink of death if you've got supplies on hand.
7/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Baned, and thus cannot be killed during the night. If your bane prevents their death, you are informed of this, and your vote counts double (which means you can set up 2 QTs if you wish, although it doesn't mean you can vote for two different people). You may target yourself with this power. You may not select the same player two nights in a row.

Detective
You're the best when it comes to stumbling onto a scene and using small clues to place somebody there and figure out what occurred.
7/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Detected, and thus if they are visited in the night, you learn one random person who visited them (besides yourself), and what power that person used on your target.

Family
The two of you have stuck it out through absolutely everything. Losing each other at this point is unbearable to think about, and this latest issue won't separate you either.
9/10 Survivor. If the Family role is in the game, there are two people with it. I will role faction for each of them. Both "Family" start in contact with each other (in a Family faction chat), and automatically Detect each other every night, seeing who targets their Family during the night (but not what powers targeted them). If one dies for any reason, the other also dies. If the two Family are one opposite sides, they don't need to die for the other faction to win. That is to say, the Survivor Family doesn't need to die for Carriers to win, and the Carrier Family doesn't need to die for Survivors to win.

Gamer
Oh man, this is just like those Mafia games you used to waste so much time playing! If you can keep tons of notes on what everybody says and where they were and what they were doing, maybe you can figure out what's really going on! Well, probably not, but your hindsight is really strong.
5/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, you have two options. First, you can analyze the previous day's lynch and determine how much each person's vote counted for, rather than how many votes each wagon got. Alternatively, you can select one dead player and retroactively Watch them, learning who they targeted each night previously during the game.

Hypochondriac
You're paranoid about every little cough and sneeze and scab and cut on everybody around you. This is your living hell, but you might finally be able to put your encyclopedic knowledge of medical symptoms to good use. Shame you flip out over just about anything, and don't know how to tell between the worrying symptoms of a Carrier and the signs of more mundane illness.
10/10 Survivor. At the start of the game, you will be informed that you are the Med Student, but in fact you are not. During the Night Phase, target one player other than yourself. I will flip a coin - heads, I tell you that player is a Survivor (town); tails, I tell you that player is a Carrier (scum). This power will detect as a Scry, even though it isn't really a proper Scry. You cannot target the same player more than once. If you die before the Med Student does, you will be reported as the Med Student; only once the real Med Student dies will I accurately report your role.

Jack Of All Trades
You've got a little talent for a bunch of things. Here's hoping the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
6/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, you have the default option to Network, setting up a QT with another player. Alternatively, you can use one of the following powers. Each power can only be used once per game.

• Bane: The target cannot die during this Night Phase.
• Day Bane: The target cannot be lynched during the following Day Phase, although some other kill effect during the day can still get them.
• Detect: You learn one random person who targeted your target last night (besides yourself).
• Rob: Target's vote doesn't count for tomorrow's lynch.
• Watch: You learn who they targeted, but not what power they used.
• Void: The target's powers fail, although this can only shut down one power (determined randomly if they have multiple powers).

Mastermind
You're the one who pieced together that your little group was all Carriers. You're the one who came up with the plan to lay low and off any Survivors that get too close to the truth. These are the only people in the world you can trust at this point, and you're gonna make sure you all pull through together if you can.
0/10 Survivor. Prior to the start of the game, I'll tell you to select a certain number of other players. Those players will be your fellow Carriers. I will assign their powers randomly, per my own private guidelines. During the Night Phase, select one Carrier; if that player is alignment Scried the same night, they will detect as a Survivor regardless of the usual accuracy of said Scry power. If that player is role Scried, they will detect as a random role that is at least 5/10 Survivor. You may target yourself with this power. This power will detect as a Bane if somebody is watching you to determine what power you used.

Med Student
You were studying to become a doctor prior to the world going to hell, and now that you've found notes on what symptoms to look for, you think you might be able to locate the sick people. Unfortunately, it's the apocalypse: everybody's getting bitten and scratched constantly, and even if they can't turn, they're still getting sick here and there. You're still pants at patching people up, but you've got enough of a scientific grounding that you won't fly off the handle over a false positive - you know what you're looking for, and you know what combinations of symptoms are other, less immediately concerning maladies.
10/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, target one player other than yourself. That player is Scried, and thus you learn whether that player is a Survivor (town) or a Carrier (scum). You cannot target the same player more than once.

Paranoid
You're absolutely convinced that a particular person is going to die soon, and you're gonna do everything you can to keep them safe! At least until your obsession latches onto somebody else. So many dangerous things during an apocalypse, after all...
5/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is double-Baned, meaning that they cannot be Killed this phase or Lynched next phase.

Police Officer
A career full of long boring stake-outs has well-prepared you for watch duty in the night, and usually you make sure to keep an eye on a particular person to see what happens around them.
7/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Detected, and thus you learn everybody who visited that player during the night, although you don't learn what powers were used on them.

Psychopath
You were ready and waiting for the apocalypse years before it actually occurred, but since your preparation mostly focused around how much ammo you had and not around food and shelter so much, you've ended up on the road. Which is just fine, you get to kill plenty out here, which is all you really wanted. But if these cowards think they'll be able to kick you out or kill you without repercussions, they've got another thing coming.
3/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. If both of you are still alive during the following Day Phase, their vote counts for whoever you're voting instead of whoever they voted for (this detects as you Robbing them). If you would be lynched, one random player voting for you also dies, and is revealed as if they too were lynched. If you would be killed in the night, the player who killed you is also killed.

Reporter
Prior to the world going to hell, you worked for the press, hunting down stories wherever they could be found. Your people-watching skills have gotten a little rusty, but you still know how to tail someone in a pinch - time to see if you've still got it.
7/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Watched, and thus you learn who they targeted and what power(s) they used.

Socialite
The only thing that would be worse than the apocalypse is going through it alone. You're glad you've got folk to talk to along the way, and you make new friends and allies and conversations easily - even now that everybody's at each other's throats. And sometimes you pick up neat info too!
7/10 Survivor. Your vote counts double (which means you can set up 2 QTs if you wish, although it doesn't mean you can vote for two different people). During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Watched, and thus you learn who they targeted (however, you do not learn what power they used).

Spy
You were sent by the military to infiltrate this large group of survivors and see which ones if any are carriers, and now they're resorting to mob mentality to root out the bad apples. You're not the best at sorting out medical conditions, but you're great at catching people in lies, and you've got enough info on them all to figure out what they should be doing from day-to-day.
10/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player other than yourself. They are Role Scried, and thus you learn what their role is (though not what their alignment is). You cannot target the same player more than once.

Teacher
You can't believe people are so willing to try and use guns to solve this problem! The world is ending, but we're still civilized people! We're going to talk through this and not just murder each other, we have time to figure this out even if supplies is limited.
7/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Day Baned. If they survive to see the following day, that player cannot be killed by any means during said Day Phase. If they do not survive to see the following day, then your vote counts double (which means you can set up 2 QTs if you wish, although it doesn't mean you can vote for two different people). You may target yourself with this power. You may not select the same player two nights in a row.

Veteran
You know how to handle yourself in a combat situation better than most, and so you can keep people from getting hurt or sabotaged in most any way while out on supply runs.
7/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That player is Baned, and thus cannot be targeted by any other power during the same night. You may target yourself with this power. You may not select the same player two nights in a row.

Vigilante
You didn't come this far just to get turned away cuz you've got some dead weight hanging on. You'll hunt down these Carriers on your own, if you have to!
10/10 Survivor. During the Night Phase, select one player. That payer is Killed, and thus they are removed from the game and have their role/alignment revealed by the narrator at the end of the Phase. A player who is killed still has their powers work successfully, just in case that matters.

Player List:

1. Xihirli
2. Apogee1
3. Caerulea
4. CaoimhinTheCape
5. Captain Cap
6. gac3
7. Holy-hunter
8. JeenLeen
9. PartyOfRouges
10. rogue_alchemist
11. The Outsider
12. Unavenger
13. Valmark

Day 1 begins when this is posted.
Day 1 ends 72 hours after it is posted.

EDIT: Day 1 ends in ~72 hours from this edit time.

[Valmark]

You know the drill, Xihirli. We got enough zombies as is.

[Xihirli]

And I think not nearly enough. Leeeet's see. Apogee1 seems closest.

[Caerulea]

I'm going to go and vote Holy-hunter. Their name is too anti-zombie to be believed.

[The Outsider]

The divine word of RNGesus has once again cast light on the evildoer: PartyOfRouges, the red menace!

[PartyOfRogues]

Voting AvatarVecna in case there are any shenanigans afoot

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Vote: gac3 for literally no good reason.

To get conversations started, what do people think of these two (possibly stupid) ideas:

1) Instead of voting, on Day 1 everyone trades in their vote to create a QT with the person below them. We have a circle of QTs set up and Day 1 votes are essentially random anyway.

2) Anyone with a 10/10 Town role claims - they set up QTs with one another and we put all our doctors on protecting them.




@Avatar Vecna Can you confirm how trading your vote for a QT works? Can you change your mind in the personal QT until the end of the day? Or once you commit your vote once, you can't get the vote back?

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Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
PartyOfRouges (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap, gac3, Holy-hunter, JeenLeen, PartyOfRouges, rogue_alchemist, Unavenger

- - - Updated - - -

Third option - we choose one person to be the center of town, everyone makes a QT with them, and they are focused by all of the docs.

[AvatarVecna]

@Avatar Vecna Can you confirm how trading your vote for a QT works? Can you change your mind in the personal QT until the end of the day? Or once you commit your vote once, you can't get the vote back?

As the day draws to a close, I open up a tab of every individual person's personal QuickTopic. Sometime within 15 minutes of EoD, I'm gonna announce publicly that pencils are down, all votes are final. I refresh each tab one last time, and figure out which people were at that moment declaring in the QT that they want to trade their vote away in order to network with somebody. The decision is made privately, and it only matters what your private decision was at that exact point.

Casting your vote publicly doesn't invalidate a networking attempt privately. You can undo a networking attempt in your QT if you decide you actually want your vote to count. Just indicate in a new QT post that you'd like to keep your vote instead of networking, and you're good. But whatever it is when I refresh that final time, that's what you're stuck with.

[Valmark]

1) Instead of voting, on Day 1 everyone trades in their vote to create a QT with the person below them. We have a circle of QTs set up and Day 1 votes are essentially random anyway.

2) Anyone with a 10/10 Town role claims - they set up QTs with one another and we put all our doctors on protecting them.

Third option - we choose one person to be the center of town, everyone makes a QT with them, and they are focused by all of the docs.

I disagree with all three of those- the first means no lynch which... Is probably a matter of taste. In a situation where there could be an higher amount of Carriers then usual I'd rather take my chances.

Second and third though means giving the Carriers a few free targets- among which the potential medics. Plus the first option tells them who could be the seers/vigilante/just trustworthy. With the Survivors not being able to trust them.

Why do you think that we should trust the claimants in option 2?

[Holy-hunter]

Vote: CaoimhinTheCape for all the strategy n’ stuff that I don’t understand.

((EDIT: did I do that right? Am I playing?)) :)

[AvatarVecna]

Vote: CaoimhinTheCape for all the strategy n’ stuff that I don’t understand.

((EDIT: did I do that right? Am I playing?)) :)

That is a viable way to cast a vote. I won't comment on the reasoning behind the vote.

[Xihirli]

Your reasoning be making the mathemological sense.

[gac3]

Spoiler: Quote

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Spoiler

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Vote: gac3

for literally no good reason.

To get conversations started, what do people think of these two (possibly stupid) ideas:

1) Instead of voting, on Day 1 everyone trades in their vote to create a QT with the person below them. We have a circle of QTs set up and Day 1 votes are essentially random anyway.

2) Anyone with a 10/10 Town role claims - they set up QTs with one another and we put all our doctors on protecting them.




@Avatar Vecna Can you confirm how trading your vote for a QT works? Can you change your mind in the personal QT until the end of the day? Or once you commit your vote once, you can't get the vote back?

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Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
PartyOfRouges (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap, gac3, Holy-hunter, JeenLeen, PartyOfRouges, rogue_alchemist, Unavenger

- - - Updated - - -

Third option - we choose one person to be the center of town, everyone makes a QT with them, and they are focused by all of the docs.

So I know this makes me the first person to start a wagon but the other vote was by the new person and mine has an actual reason. CaiominhinTheCape

Responses to your ideas.
1. This is just... Well... It makes no sense to me. Make a QT with the person below you? That sounds like QTs for the sake of having a QT. Which, let's face it, with how selective you have to be, each QT should have a reason because votes are still more valuable to be made randomly than a random QT.
2. Not as bad an option but eh. This one might not be terrible but all it truly does is give the wolves a list of people to target. Also this would assume they are all claiming honestly which probably can't be checked immediately.
3. No. Chances are too high of this person ending up a wolf. What's the point of randomly picking to trust someone.

My big issue is that your plans have the following things in common:
1. They encourage town not to vote, which only helps wolves. You've been around long enough that I shouldn't have to explain why this is but I will if need be.
2. They mention focusing all of the docs, on one or fewer people which seems like a waste of our docs if we have more than one and allow the wolves to pick the rest of us off.
3. These would depend on a universal agreement by all of town which kind of discourages discussion. I'd say that we should keep secret whether or not we plan to make a QT until after the vote is done minimum. We don't get adequate intel if we know that most of the votes don't matter. But if everybody publically acts like normal, then we can still have discussion.

[rogue_alchemist]

Spoiler: CtC

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Vote: gac3 for literally no good reason.

To get conversations started, what do people think of these two (possibly stupid) ideas:

1) Instead of voting, on Day 1 everyone trades in their vote to create a QT with the person below them. We have a circle of QTs set up and Day 1 votes are essentially random anyway.

2) Anyone with a 10/10 Town role claims - they set up QTs with one another and we put all our doctors on protecting them.




@Avatar Vecna Can you confirm how trading your vote for a QT works? Can you change your mind in the personal QT until the end of the day? Or once you commit your vote once, you can't get the vote back?

---

Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
PartyOfRouges (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap, gac3, Holy-hunter, JeenLeen, PartyOfRouges, rogue_alchemist, Unavenger

- - - Updated - - -

Third option - we choose one person to be the center of town, everyone makes a QT with them, and they are focused by all of the docs.

Spoiler: Val

Show

I disagree with all three of those- the first means no lynch which... Is probably a matter of taste. In a situation where there could be an higher amount of Carriers then usual I'd rather take my chances.

Second and third though means giving the Carriers a few free targets- among which the potential medics. Plus the first option tells them who could be the seers/vigilante/just trustworthy. With the Survivors not being able to trust them.

Why do you think that we should trust the claimants in option 2?

Spoiler: gac3

Show

So I know this makes me the first person to start a wagon but the other vote was by the new person and mine has an actual reason. CaiominhinTheCape

Responses to your ideas.
1. This is just... Well... It makes no sense to me. Make a QT with the person below you? That sounds like QTs for the sake of having a QT. Which, let's face it, with how selective you have to be, each QT should have a reason because votes are still more valuable to be made randomly than a random QT.
2. Not as bad an option but eh. This one might not be terrible but all it truly does is give the wolves a list of people to target. Also this would assume they are all claiming honestly which probably can't be checked immediately.
3. No. Chances are too high of this person ending up a wolf. What's the point of randomly picking to trust someone.

My big issue is that your plans have the following things in common:
1. They encourage town not to vote, which only helps wolves. You've been around long enough that I shouldn't have to explain why this is but I will if need be.
2. They mention focusing all of the docs, on one or fewer people which seems like a waste of our docs if we have more than one and allow the wolves to pick the rest of us off.
3. These would depend on a universal agreement by all of town which kind of discourages discussion. I'd say that we should keep secret whether or not we plan to make a QT until after the vote is done minimum. We don't get adequate intel if we know that most of the votes don't matter. But if everybody publically acts like normal, then we can still have discussion.

First I vote for Captain Cap. I don't want to start a train, so I eliminated the first people with votes on them already. (it was 6 'real' votes at the time) and RNGd between the remaining using AV's list for the order.

Now for analysis. I agree with gac3 and Valmark that CtC's plan is pretty bad. It looks a bit wolfish, but having looked wolfish myself the past couple of starts, I am willing to give him a chance to defend himself before jumping on the train. As for gac3's final point that we should somehow make a QT without letting everyone know so that their votes count like normal, I don't think that can happen as any kind of unified plan because it will be either known or not. So I guess they mean for everyone to do what their conscience tells them to do and it'll all shake out in the end. I don't think anyone should claim publicly, especially not yet, as it will give the wolves a list of targets, but a town core that can be verified and start a voting block will be great. I don't know how to tell people publicly to proceed without the wolves coming up with an even better counter plan that invalidates it.

[gac3]

It's not a unified plan. I'm just advising that if anyone were to make a QT they not mention it until after the result. For instance if I were to make a QT today and tell everyone "I'm making a QT" then they know I don't have a vote. So I can't put any pressure on anyone to talk more or any other situation my vote might help us find a wolf. I can still analyze but I think people are undervaluing the power that a vote gives you in discussion, even if it doesn't count in truth.

Besides now that it's confirmed you can change your mind, its simplist to wait. If you do end up making a QT and want to tell people about it, I just recommend you wait until night begins. That way we can still have a day like normal.

[rogue_alchemist]

Even if someone said they were going to create a QT publicly, I wouldn't trust them at all. Unless they flat out don't vote on here, I assume they are voting. It could be a wolf tactic to say they are going to create a QT and "throw away" their vote, so people don't count it, only to use that power to distract or cause a weird lynch situation. This adds another layer of lying to the game, but is just more noise that ultimately doesn't mean anything until the end of the phase and we can try to analyze which votes actually counted and which went toward QTs. What is going to be hard is if we have a situation where we can't tell whose votes didn't count and so we don't know who is creating QTs. Then was their vote a throw-away or was it intentional to mislead others but not be part of it themselves.

For the narrator: I see a few powers that "randomly kill someone who voted to lynch you, if you die", but lets say someone posts a vote on that person, but in their private QT tells you they are using their vote to create a network QT, so it looks like they voted for that person from our public perspective, but then that person gets lynched. Since they didn't technically vote for that person, are they part of the random choice or not? Their vote might have been part of a misleading way to get a train on the person who got lynched, but then they don't suffer the consequences.

EDIT: changed would to wouldn't, because I'm an idiot when I try to type fast.

[gac3]

See, the availability for deception is just another example of why it serves no purpose to declare during the day what choice you made. Now when the day ends if people are like "somebody didn't vote" then the information could be useful. But during the day, it serves no purpose that I see.

[Apogee1]

16 posts in and walls of mech

My personal philosophy is that if you have a high percent town role that isn’t a seer, claiming for the purpose of networking is potentially good

I won’t go into like what the derivative aspects of such a plan would be

Also word of warning

We will want to be careful about not outing prs from vote pattern behavior tomorrow

Because seers at least will want to form networks based on results

What that actually looks like in play idk

[The Outsider]

Spoiler: CtC

Show

To get conversations started, what do people think of these two (possibly stupid) ideas:

1) Instead of voting, on Day 1 everyone trades in their vote to create a QT with the person below them. We have a circle of QTs set up and Day 1 votes are essentially random anyway.

2) Anyone with a 10/10 Town role claims - they set up QTs with one another and we put all our doctors on protecting them.

I agree with the general sentiment that these aren't the best of ideas. However, they strike me less as wolfish and more as tentative experimentation. And considering how novel this game is, I don't want to discourage more experimental ideas.

What I do want to discourage is silence. Therefore, I'm switching my vote to JeenLeen, who hasn't spoken yet.

Spoiler: Xihirli

Show

Your reasoning be making the mathemological sense.

Dang it, now I want to go read 8-bit Theater for the 64th time.

[Xihirli]

Excellent. Phase two of my evil plan begins now.

Spoiler: PHASE TWO

Show

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I disagree with all three of those- the first means no lynch which... Is probably a matter of taste. In a situation where there could be an higher amount of Carriers then usual I'd rather take my chances.

Second and third though means giving the Carriers a few free targets- among which the potential medics. Plus the first option tells them who could be the seers/vigilante/just trustworthy. With the Survivors not being able to trust them.

Why do you think that we should trust the claimants in option 2?

Plan 1 definitely isn't good, we can't expect everyone to sign onto it. But if everyone spent 1 vote on making a QT, that leaves the vote up to roles with 2 votes to make a decision. Those roles are Celebrity (5/10) and Socialite (7/10) which could give town a slight edge on day 1 if they're more likely to be town.

For trusting someone in option 2, the only check there is that the town probably has at least one scry, which can be used to check out the other group.

Both option 2 and 3 rely on the potential of doctors healing the outed players which... is sorta how doctors work. Sure, the Wolves have one or more targets that are likely town, but if they try hitting any of them there's a decent chance that the group will be protected by one or more docs.

3. No. Chances are too high of this person ending up a wolf. What's the point of randomly picking to trust someone.

3. These would depend on a universal agreement by all of town which kind of discourages discussion. I'd say that we should keep secret whether or not we plan to make a QT until after the vote is done minimum. We don't get adequate intel if we know that most of the votes don't matter. But if everybody publically acts like normal, then we can still have discussion.

Your criticisms of options 1 and 2 were legit and basically the same as Val's, so skipping those.

I mean, Day 1 we randomly vote someone and there's a good chance it is town but we learn info from the lynch/wagons. If we're randomly picking someone anyway, why not get a town network started with someone who could be protected by docs and scryed Night 1?

The point about making it public is right, and I honestly didn't put too much thought into how easy it is for Wolves to hide that they're the ones who voted. Last game AV lost a vote day 1 and since I was the other Wolf, it was just obvious to me who it was. In this game I thought we could threaten to vote anyone who didn't agree to any plan, but there's too much opportunity to hide (like how AV kept under the radar last game).

Now for analysis. I agree with gac3 and Valmark that CtC's plan is pretty bad. It looks a bit wolfish, but having looked wolfish myself the past couple of starts, I am willing to give him a chance to defend himself before jumping on the train. As for gac3's final point that we should somehow make a QT without letting everyone know so that their votes count like normal, I don't think that can happen as any kind of unified plan because it will be either known or not. So I guess they mean for everyone to do what their conscience tells them to do and it'll all shake out in the end. I don't think anyone should claim publicly, especially not yet, as it will give the wolves a list of targets, but a town core that can be verified and start a voting block will be great. I don't know how to tell people publicly to proceed without the wolves coming up with an even better counter plan that invalidates it.

My point with the ideas was mostly trying to find a way the town can set up a network without unlimited QTs. There's no way we can discuss strategies without Wolves seeing and even optimistically a Seer takes 1 Day phase to set up a QT and 1 Night phase to check someone before we can get some sort of network going. Plus the Seer may not be able to trust their results (with the Fool type of role). Plus the Seer or their target could die, or the Seer could get voided.

Really, I'm just throwing stuff at the group so we can find a good way to organize. If there's some trick to getting a network together I want to explore it Day 1 when the votes are random anyway and we have the time/votes to spend on it.

16 posts in and walls of mech

My personal philosophy is that if you have a high percent town role that isn’t a seer, claiming for the purpose of networking is potentially good

That's how a potential version of plan 3 would work. One person who is most likely town does the claim and centers the network around them. Seer validates at night and we go from there. The problem is roles are random, people can lie, etc.





I'm in no way attached to those plans, but if anyone has better suggestions on getting organized I'd want to hear them. Otherwise, it feels like the game will be possible Seers/Fools taking most of the game to figure out what they are while the Wolves have a couple free days of killing.

---

Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
PartyOfRouges (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Holy-hunter, gac3
Captain Cap (1): rogue_alchemist


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap, JeenLeen, PartyOfRouges, Unavenger

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Got Ninja'd, and don't remember the policy about editing posts. So new Vote Count.

Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
JeenLeen (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Holy-hunter, gac3
Captain Cap (1): rogue_alchemist


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap, JeenLeen, PartyOfRouges, Unavenger

[JeenLeen]

Valmark and gac3 have stated the reasons for it, and it's a crazy busy week at work so far, so I'll vote for CaiominhimTheCape for now.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if all of us traded our votes for QTs (or at least everyone but the 2-vote roles), expecting someone else to stick the vote, and someone with 1-2 votes dies.
And, on that note (and really hoping the newbie isn't a wolf), I recommend any joke-votes on holy-hunter be dropped (or turned into QTs), lest our new player get unfairly killed D1.

That's how a potential version of plan 3 would work. One person who is most likely town does the claim and centers the network around them. Seer validates at night and we go from there. The problem is roles are random, people can lie, etc.

Both Spy and fake-Spy are 10/10 Town, so if someone is one of those and willing to claim, we could tentatively trust them and circle a network around them.
Obvious downsides: require a baner to protect them, and a wolf could easily fakeclaim, or a wolf!watcher could find out who the seer/baner is by watching the Spy-claimant. Though there's decent odds we don't have a wolf!watcher. And if a wolf fakeclaims, we'll know it after a mislynch or two, but we can afford that? Could someone more experienced with calculating "last die to vote wolf or we lose" figure out how many mislynches we can afford, assuming no NKs outside the wolf NKs and the wolves successfully NK each time?
Though we probably (almost certainly) have 2 wolves with our player count. So if we can find one by D3, we can probably win. But I'd like someone to do the math before I write much more.

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New post/edit: I was rushed reading and didn't realize what I wrote was Cao's #2. So I guess I did make a plan like his, and can see a townie making such a plan. Anyway, want to see some math if someone can provide, and think more when I'm not so busy. Probably should have waited to post until more free, but wanted to get something in early-to-mid D1.

[Unavenger]

Partyofrogues, apropos of nothing in particular. Obviously there's nothing really to go on. Luckily, we have the chance to network by giving up our votes, I suppose. I'm not sure whether or not people should make it obvious whether they're doing that or not, mind. Certainly I see that knowing which votes are real and which ones aren't makes it easier for the wolves to avoid suspicion, but they can always tell which of each other's votes are real. Everyone else can be argued to lose out by not pressuring the wolves into making their networking public. On the other hand, I can see the problems with this. Few conclusions will be possible just from who's networking. Fewer still will be possible without knowing who they're networking with. It's easy to argue that you're just inviting the wolves to kill the people you're trying to network with. Can town use the information as well as the wolves can? Eh. Really, I'm not sure either way.

[The Outsider]

Switching vote to Captain Cap, who hasn't spoken.

My instincts tell me that any plan that involves revealing information D1 is not the best plan, since said information can easily be utilized by the wolves. On the other hand, it's in the Town's best interest to create a solid network, and conversely against the best interest of the wolves. It really comes down to a gamble, like Unavenger said: can the Town use the information on D1 better than the wolves can? And personally, I don't think we should make that gamble. Not when the strong possibility exists that by waiting to reveal information, we can do so under circumstances where it would be a strategically valid move instead of a gamble.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Valmark and gac3 have stated the reasons for it, and it's a crazy busy week at work so far, so I'll vote for CaiominhimTheCape for now.

Though we probably (almost certainly) have 2 wolves with our player count. So if we can find one by D3, we can probably win. But I'd like someone to do the math before I write much more.

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New post/edit: I was rushed reading and didn't realize what I wrote was Cao's #2. So I guess I did make a plan like his, and can see a townie making such a plan. Anyway, want to see some math if someone can provide, and think more when I'm not so busy. Probably should have waited to post until more free, but wanted to get something in early-to-mid D1.

I could see 3 wolves for a 3/13 scenario. Assuming 1 Wolf kill each night, that brings us to 4 Town vs 3 Wolves on Day 4. Having only two Wolves seems too few to me.

Interested to see another post from you when you have a chance to look things over. Bit confused by you voting me and then giving the similar plan.

Mastermind
0/10 Survivor. Prior to the start of the game, I'll tell you to select a certain number of other players. Those players will be your fellow Carriers. I will assign their powers randomly, per my own private guidelines.

Is there any value in talking about who is likely to be picked for the Wolf team?

---

Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
JeenLeen (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Holy-hunter, gac3, JeenLeen
Captain Cap (1): rogue_alchemist
PartyofRogues (1): Unavenger


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap, PartyOfRouges

- - - Updated - - -

Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Apogee1 (1): Xihirli
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Holy-hunter, gac3, JeenLeen
Captain Cap (1): rogue_alchemist, The Outsider
PartyofRogues (1): Unavenger


Not Voting: Apogee1, Captain Cap

[Xihirli]

Valmark and gac3 have stated the reasons for it, and it's a crazy busy week at work so far, so I'll vote for CaiominhimTheCape for now.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if all of us traded our votes for QTs (or at least everyone but the 2-vote roles), expecting someone else to stick the vote, and someone with 1-2 votes dies.
And, on that note (and really hoping the newbie isn't a wolf), I recommend any joke-votes on holy-hunter be dropped (or turned into QTs), lest our new player get unfairly killed D1.



Both Spy and fake-Spy are 10/10 Town, so if someone is one of those and willing to claim, we could tentatively trust them and circle a network around them.
Obvious downsides: require a baner to protect them, and a wolf could easily fakeclaim, or a wolf!watcher could find out who the seer/baner is by watching the Spy-claimant. Though there's decent odds we don't have a wolf!watcher. And if a wolf fakeclaims, we'll know it after a mislynch or two, but we can afford that? Could someone more experienced with calculating "last die to vote wolf or we lose" figure out how many mislynches we can afford, assuming no NKs outside the wolf NKs and the wolves successfully NK each time?
Though we probably (almost certainly) have 2 wolves with our player count. So if we can find one by D3, we can probably win. But I'd like someone to do the math before I write much more.

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New post/edit: I was rushed reading and didn't realize what I wrote was Cao's #2. So I guess I did make a plan like his, and can see a townie making such a plan. Anyway, want to see some math if someone can provide, and think more when I'm not so busy. Probably should have waited to post until more free, but wanted to get something in early-to-mid D1.

Switching vote to Captain Cap, who hasn't spoken.

My instincts tell me that any plan that involves revealing information D1 is not the best plan, since said information can easily be utilized by the wolves. On the other hand, it's in the Town's best interest to create a solid network, and conversely against the best interest of the wolves. It really comes down to a gamble, like Unavenger said: can the Town use the information on D1 better than the wolves can? And personally, I don't think we should make that gamble. Not when the strong possibility exists that by waiting to reveal information, we can do so under circumstances where it would be a strategically valid move instead of a gamble.

Caoimhin has provoked the most discussion today and promises to continue activity, so I'm inclined to keep them around. CaptainCap I can get behind, let's encourage activity.

[Apogee1]

Captain Cap

over Cao I suppose

[JeenLeen]

If Captain Cap flips town, it's probably not a wolf ploy to save Cao, but let's look at those voting for him thus far:
rogue_alchemist: first vote on Captain Cap, seems reasonable D1 random vote
The Outsider: starts the real counterwagon
Xihirli: eh, Xi is hard to read, but looks legit townie reason to keep discussion active.

If Captain Cap is Town and The Outsider wolf, I think we should suspect Cao. Otherwise, I'm shifting my read on him to a townie one.
I'll sacrifice my vote for a QuickTopic today, so I'll leave it on Cao to protect him. It'll make it look like there's more votes than there are, if anyone isn't reading closely or forgets I'm doing this. (I'm also stating this explicitly to draw to people's minds that vote totals will be misleading in this game.)

Other Thoughts

For some reason I thought we were still at 11 players. Yeah, 3 wolves seems possible.
I recently got a promotion at work and am feeling a bit overwhelmed adjusting, so my participation and thought processes may be less than usual.
I'm the Spy, or, well, a Spy, or the Conspiracy Nut. If people want to try to coordinate with me, feel free. Or wait until D2 if someone vets me as town.

I was hoping to wait to claim until some harder math gets made, but I think it's a solid enough move, and I'm not sure how active I'll be Friday or over the weekend, and I want to get that in before too late in D1. Also, even if I die to the wolves because the baners don't exist or don't trust me, my role's power doesn't seem incredibly useful at finding wolves (except Mastermind). It can find liars, but town might have good reason to lie about their roles.

AV: are we allowed to share QTs we create with votes publicly?
Can we share the links to them in other QTs that we create with votes?
Pondering how easy it is/isn't to hand the network over to another townie.

If there is another Spy/Conspiracy Nut, and you'd rather try to lead the network, feel free to claim if you think it's wise to, since my real life stuff doesn't make me ideal.

[AvatarVecna]

AV: are we allowed to share QTs we create with votes publicly?
Can we share the links to them in other QTs that we create with votes?
Pondering how easy it is/isn't to hand the network over to another townie.

No and no.

[Captain Cap]

Sorry for the lateness, people, I was working on the math and just today I realized I missed the Family role (and consequently their ability to influence the number of Survivors in the game), so my approximations could be far less good than I thought (I'll still present the results, at least the general formula, for anyone curious and to prove some activity from my part).
I hope to redo the work on it as soon as possible (including Family in the calculations this time around).

About the lynching pending on me: unluckily for me, I can't really count on my role to prove my innocence (around 50%, more or less), so I'm not going to claim and reveal my powers.

About the discussion started by Caoihmin: I agree with most of what others pointed out. A chain is as strong as its weakest link, is said: a chain of QT may establish a "global" connection, but would be too sensible to wolves interference; moreover, you have to convince EVERYONE to make it effective and avoid a few votes lynching (we wouldn't even be able to distinguish between opportunist wolves and skeptic towns). My opinion is that everyone should do whatever they feel right: does that guy seems particularly trustworthy? let's open a link with him; does that guy give wolf vibes? why not lynch him? (However we could agree together to "impose" a sort threshold: if it's violated, inquiry would be a must)
About his other point: as others already said, it's a bit too risky (we probably don't have a lot of Baners around, given AvatarVecna said role repeats are not very likely, and if there's just one, the plan would fail catastrophically).

Here the calculations I made, but please keep these in mind:

• The result is an approximation (due to the assumptions made and because there are some unclear points in roles determination)
• The consequences of Family's inclusion are not considered (this could be particularly problematic)
• The number X of carriers chosen by the Mastermind is an unknown parameter

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@Avatarvecna Now that I think about it: does the Mastermind's inclusion and selection override the "normal" faction determination (X/10)? If that's the case, my calculation are even more wrong.