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Thread: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
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2021-06-11, 03:55 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Spoiler: Murska
10 posts in total... Not much to analyze. (I am not sure anymore where the day/might breaks are between the posts, so my analysis might be slightly incorrect on this front)
3 posts on day 1, a semi random vote on AV, changed to BCH later. Was not lucky about the plan to test Emmy.
I think a wolf would like to keep a neutral alive at this point, to increase the number of persons to hide behind and keep someone they could safely push against.
Day 2 has more activities. Throwing doubt on Snow. One vote for Val without much explanation.
Arguing about the usefulness of AV, stating that long posts are helpful, no matter the alignment. By doing this, also throwing some doubt in my direction (my role).
Day 3 a boring vote for the obvious target.
Day 4 a single post at the time writing.
---
So, for someone saying seer days are boring and taking will help town, there are suspicious few posts. Slight wolf lean, but nothing big. Since there simply is not much to go by.
- - - Updated - - -
Shal has not posted in the thread since day 1.
Going to check the rules for auto lynch now.
Originally Posted by RulesLast edited by Rogan; 2021-06-11 at 04:05 PM.
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2021-06-11, 04:05 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Only rule for auto lynches is they must post before day 2 as far as I can find. I don't care who you are this is suspicious.
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2021-06-11, 04:07 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-06-11, 04:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Hit post too soon. Will edit in actual replies to the first quotes
I tend to agree about the first post. It was long and contained analysis to back the target up. It could have helped day 2.
On day 2, if I remember correctly, only Val voted afterwards.
However, the day was nearly over, so the chances of someone changing to Xi were low. However, assuming wolves guessed right about Cao, Mornshines vote would not have been enough. See Caos Post quoted below for the chances.
Your update confuses me a bit...
Xi was pushing Apogee to out the Vig so he (I) could be killed. Why did you think she was a town vig?
Going from no vote to Xi.
Assuming Double voter is on Snow: Safe for a wolf (1vote more for Snow)
Assuming double vote on Xi: Setting Xi up for the lynch.
Assuming double voter inactive: A tie.
Finished updating the post
This is the last post I can find
Therefore Shal was only active in QTs.
Very suspiciousLast edited by Rogan; 2021-06-11 at 04:36 PM. Reason: Sending to soon
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2021-06-11, 04:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Here's an approximate order of the people I'm willing to lynch, from least to most suspicious:
Murska
MornShine
Snowblaze
Libro
Zelphas
People not on that list aren't being considered for today, at least not by me.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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2021-06-11, 04:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2021-06-11, 04:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
While I would like to get an answer to this question as well, it seems like AV knows something not told in the public. So, no vote against Shal from my side.
Still, Shal, I think you should talk a bit more. Even if it's nothing more than "Sorry, I am busy right now and can't do much more than doing what AV suggests in my QT" or similar.
- - - Updated - - -
Spoiler: Libro
Soo... what do we have here?
Very few public posts, but I think there was some communication with the Network in the night.
First post skipping a towny and hitting a wolf. It is noticeable now, but I don't think it has a meaning.
There is also some explanation of the rules. Null.
Next post admits the skipping. But again, seems not very important.
Now the big reveal (not the power).
It starts with a reason for staying quiet, with would still be valid now.
Some RP. This might be a way to make the post seem bigger and more memorable than he really is, but I don't think so.
Wanting to stay hidden is logical. The talk about the fool was discussed later.
So, an early claim is good. But the role does not necessarily mean town. It seems more likely, but could still be a wolf. And claiming with this role would seem logical for a wolf.
The next post points out the limits of a parent scry in a game where parents/ powers have no guaranteed alignment. A wolf could use this to lay the foundation of a defense in case a scried player ends up as town.
Also points out he can be very useful to verify neutrals. A wolf might say this if an ally claimed Neutral. Depending on the amount of distrust, he could grant his ally one day more (while gaining town points) or save the wolf.
Spoiler: Scenario
Some wolf: I am neutral
Town: We don't trust you!
Libro: Don't kill him, I can check him tonight.
Next day:
IF lots of suspicion:
Linro: okay, it's not a neutral. Let's kill him.
(Losing a wolf, but gaining trust)
ELSE
Libro: okay, he scried as neutral.
Town: good that this is confirmed without wasting a kill.
(Saving a wolf, but risking getting outed later)
Next post is a vote (for BCH, a neutral, but highlysuspicious at this time) Null
Public confirmation of Snows parent, setting her as neutral. If Snow gets herself killed, Libro is very, very suspicious unless Snow has the power to disguise the parents. The other way round (libro flips Wolf) would not be telling much about Snow. Or anything, really.
Also a vote for blades. Null.
I am not sure... did I miss a post? I will check after posting...
All in all, my first impression was town, but I'm not sure anymore. Can definitely still be town. He would but be my vote target unless there is more evidence against him.Last edited by Rogan; 2021-06-11 at 04:45 PM.
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2021-06-11, 05:52 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Location
- Aiur, low orbit
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Busy day irl.
I scried Murska last night and got "Child of Ares".
Given that the beast role is still unaccounted for I know where I'm not putting my vote. Idk where I'll put it yet tho; I'll figure it out and see what I need to respond to when I'm less burned out.
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2021-06-11, 06:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Another public scry result. For someone with full access to the network, this could help
determiningverifying claims. To the best of my knowledge, there is a Ares claim from Murska.
Killing Ares Children is something I should do, if there is enough suspicion. If it's the beast, I will die as well, but it will help Town AND Jeen at the same time. Win-Win.
I will go to bed now.
26 hours left for this day, right?Last edited by Rogan; 2021-06-11 at 06:01 PM. Reason: Changed wording
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2021-06-11, 06:39 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-06-11, 06:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Just to clear some confusion up. I am child of Hermes: light of Foot (aka tracker). I tried to follow AV N1 and "got dizzy" then ended up following myself and seeing that I targeted myself (seems crazy that a vortexer would point me back to myself, but maybe they thought I was the vig). N2 I tried to follow Valmark, but instead I noticed <redacted> didn't target anyone. *this makes sense that I couldn't find him hiding behind <redacted>, though he didn't mention specifically in public who he hid behind, so I won't out him in case it matters* then N3 I tracked BookWombat, who targeted Elenna. I have been in contact with Apo/AV every night and basically following along with them. I was told that I was used as a test of sorts basically every night, though not who I tested, why, or what the results were, so I haven't had much info besides who I tracked and what I found.
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2021-06-11, 08:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
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2021-06-11, 08:19 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
I doubt that is by any means a Guarantee. As Far As I'm aware there are 4 people alive right now who can mess with actions.
Healing Waters could protect the vig
Hades could have fog to direct the beast's kill elsewhere.
Hermes would just add to the kill count.
Drunken Fun Stops the Beast kill in the first place.
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2021-06-11, 10:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2012
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
This was a horrible time to be at a wedding all day, and away from home so it's hard to get time to read things.
I'll throw a vote on Shal06 for no since there seems to be a question there from what I could read, and hope that I can see what's going on tomorrow.
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2021-06-12, 01:09 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Well, at least I know who I need to not die.
CaoimhinTheCape
Libro
Murska
Shal06
Zelphas
...Now I’m townsiding I can’t play the “I’m neutral, I don’t have to do any work” card. *sigh*
Caoimhin was pushed by Bladescape day one, but the way in which it was done I don’t think actually clears them - I seem to remember Caoimhin felt more like part of the argument with AV than Bladescape’s suspect in their own right. But... I’ve been kind of harsh on them earlier, and *shrug* there isn’t anything that actually screams wolf in their ISO. Conflicted on this one.
Libro is a large part of why I’m not currently being killed with fire, which is a bad reason to not vote for someone. Hasn’t really posted much analysis recently, which could be a sign of a demoralised wolf.
Murska... well, Child of Ares is a likely wolf role, and I’ve been hovering around the null point on him for a while... but killing him without evidence seems counterproductive given his possible roles.
Shal06 hasn’t posted since day one, and I have a couple of reasons to suspect him but I don’t think they’re very good reasons. I think we can do better than “kill the inactive”.
Zelphas is my vote; I do genuinely think the post quoted by Murska is suspicious, and not a massive fan of “I haven’t read much so I’ll just chuck a vote on my counterwagon”. I... might also have an ulterior motive for wanting him dead (AV knows what I mean).I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-06-12, 06:12 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
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2021-06-12, 06:47 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Close to 0.
On the other hand, town definitely could do it.
But I think, I could move against you even without protection. If you are hard to kill, nothing happens. If you are the beast, Jeen gets his victory.
But you are safe today and the result of the lynch will help determining the best night actions.
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2021-06-12, 06:57 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2007
- Location
- Whose eye is that eye?
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Ah, yeah, Town could do it.
But certainly no Wolf would ever be so daring as to launch an attack against me. I mean, what are the odds that I'm actually some other, more vulnerable and important town role?
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2021-06-12, 07:20 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-06-12, 07:21 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-06-12, 07:32 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-06-12, 09:44 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2019
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2021-06-12, 10:07 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Comparing those lists...
Zelphas is on both lists.
Libro is on both lists.
Murska is on both lists.
AV has Snow and Morn.
Snow has Cao and Shal.
I can understand that snow won't target herself.
Since I gave reasons for voting Shal myself, I can't hold this against Snow either.
So... Cao and Morn are the odd ones out.
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2021-06-12, 10:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
I'm clearing MornShine for their vote on Xihirli day two. It's not lock mechanical clear, but wolves were unlikely enough to have bussed that it's "don't revisist for a couple more days" clear.
I don't know of any reason why Caoimhin couldn't be a wolf, so I'm not clearing them. AV has a lot of information I don't, but I'm operating on what I've got rather than trying to second-guess AV. Less likely to drive me mad.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-06-12, 10:28 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Okay, I can understand that reasoning.
I don't agree with it regarding Mornshine since her vote was 8 minutes before the EOD and as the analysis above showed, a Wolf!Morn would have good reason to believe Xi was not set up for the lynch. 5 minutes later, Valmark joined the Xi hater club. This last vote tipped the scales to a 50/50 chance of getting Xi killed instead of you.
But if Morn is a wolf you want to defend, then you would have to be able to disguise your parent OR Libro was lying about his scry.
The last one would mean 6 wolves. Too many in my opinion.
The first one is still possible, but I doubt it.
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2021-06-12, 10:51 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
...still disagreeing there. I wouldn't have the nerve to make that Xihirli vote in wolf!MornShine's place unless I was 100% certain that the double-voter was on me and even then it would be a pretty big risk.
I mean, yes, there's the chance of a large dose of towncred, but MornShine would want to make sure their buddy didn't die and there's a very easy target to be voted for instead. It's too crazy a move for most wolves.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-06-12, 11:04 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
That's fine, we can agree to disagree.
Maybe one more question: I think you said something like, AV should help help Jeen, a neutral, win.
Now your vote is on Zelphas, another claimed neutral.
Do you think this claim was a lie? (You can send me a QT if you want to keep this away from the public for one reason or the other)
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2021-06-12, 11:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
I don't know. I'm treating the claim as NAI due to lack of information. I don't have time to set up a QT at the moment, but you can ask AV for more detail about me and Zelphas.
(Also, where did I say that AV should help Jeen win? I do think helping neutrals is a good idea but I don't remember actually saying anything about it.)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-06-12, 11:29 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
Okay, don't worry about the QT. I think I can figure out what you mean.
Going back, you did not literally AV should help Jeen, but there was this:
Still, I think it would be nice for you to survive and win - unless there is good reason to suspect you are a wolf instead of a neutral.
I don't think I will vote for you today or kill you tonight.
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2021-06-12, 01:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson
That was just me being snarky about the death of a Child of Dionysus. I’d also prefer to survive and win, so thanks for not plotting my death I guess?
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature