Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Taffimai]

Ah, I'm sorry, but I really haven't been able to keep up.

[AvatarVecna]

Ah, I'm sorry, but I really haven't been able to keep up.

No worries. It's not me being sarcastic - it requires a rather close reading cuz I'm trying to not just say it.

[gac3]

No worries. It's not me being sarcastic - it requires a rather close reading cuz I'm trying to not just say it.

Hmmm... Maybe you are the person I thought you weren't...

[AvatarVecna]

Hmmm... Maybe you are the person I thought you weren't...

And who would that be.

[gac3]

And who would that be.

Well I mean your actual role name. If I'm right I don't want to say it because of ominous name reveal warnings. But if you don't care, I can say it I guess.

[AvatarVecna]

Well I mean your actual role name. If I'm right I don't want to say it because of ominous name reveal warnings. But if you don't care, I can say it I guess.

You can guess if you like.

[gac3]

You can guess if you like.

I've been leaning towards Kronk. But also conceed you might be Yzma.

[Elenna]

@Moonfly: your points make a lot of sense, but there's also this:

Spoiler: Caoimhin quote

Show

I gave a reads list a page ago. I said there were people I suspected (gac, Book, BCH) and voted gac, then Book. I am doing more in this game to go after leads than you. I've show how I'm trying to deal with them: Give answers and take a side, or you get voted.


Captain Cap, you're leaving your random vote out and only passively saying my lynch would help. You've given no indication as to what you think of other players and do not care between my lynch and Snow. You're not committing to anything and no matter who gets lynched today, we don't learn anything about you. Take a side, or get voted.

Which I really don't think a wolf says to their partner.

@Captain Cap: Moonfly's interpretation isn't unreasonable, in fact it's pretty close to my own. I just found a counter-argument and decided I didn't want to start tunneling you.

If you're town I get it, it's frustrating to be misunderstood, but not everyone who misunderstands you is a wolf.

Actually I do think that's a perfectly reasonable thing for a wolf to say to their partner for distancing. It's an argument against Cap, but it's an argument that can be completely nullified by Cap voting for Cao or Snow, at which point Cao has an easy excuse to move his vote off Cap.

High-Key don't like Captain Cap saying my death would be a source of intel but none of the main wagons attracted him.

OTOH this, to me, feels like something a wolf might not say about their partner.

I took another quick glance at the Cao/Cap interaction. I'm not as convinced that it's distancing as I was before, partly because of the above quote, partly because of the line Cap pointed out where he says the two wagons would give the same amount of info. Still not convinced it's not distancing, either.

I might come back to voting Cap later, but for now I want to poke Fext. Can you confirm whether you're claiming neutral or town? Also, do you have any reads on people? I know reads are harder when you're new, but even looking at other people's arguments, is there anything you do or do not agree with? Anything that strikes you as weird?

Can we have some scry results, in the meantime?

The seer(s?) likely don't think it's worth it to share their results, if they didn't find wolves. This is kinda TWTBW with asking for seers to reveal themselves.

I do have some kind of lie detection power.

Would it help you for everyone to explicitly state that they are a townie, so that you can basically act as a seer by checking if those statements are true? Or is that not how your power works? Feel free not to reply if your power works better without people knowing the details.

Just in case: I am a member of the town.

If mafia have a roleblock I'm probably blocked for the rest of my life in this game.

Only if wolves think you're going to hit a wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

I've been leaning towards Kronk. But also conceed you might be Yzma.

Appropriately enough, my response to this is, in fact, "wrong lever".

Neither of those is my role name. Although honestly I could see Kronk having this powerset with different fluff.

[gac3]

Appropriately enough, my response to this is, in fact, "wrong lever".

Neither of those is my role name. Although honestly I could see Kronk having this powerset with different fluff.

The mechanics shared screamed Kronk to me. But yay. Win win. Not only do I get to set up one of my favorite jokes from my childhood, but my guessing doesn't make the wolves any closer to guessing your name.

[moonfly7]

Blades power is not the forbidden one. Mine is. A part of my power is redacted. Could be a huge drawback, but it my guess is correct, it would not be that bad and could even be an advantage.

Corrected the autocorrect. Thanks for the heads-up.



It helps. It also means I'm surprised about your power level. A townie with at least three powers, one of them protection from night kill? What kind of crazy concept did you pick? Now, you also hinted at some drawbacks, but still...

You know, I hate to say it, but didn't AV specifically mention having 2 other powers+protection from night kill as the SK last game? That does sound similare. Granted AV saying that as the SK might not be the smartest move, but It is a coincidence to keep in mind.

Aside from that I would like to here from Snowblaze on her thoughts and if she gained anything she can share from the night.

[Batcathat]

Lots of talking and not a lot of dying. Better than the other way around, I suppose.

I should probably reread stuff with a less sleepy brain. Nothing to contribute of immediate value, I'm afraid.

[gac3]

You know, I hate to say it, but didn't AV specifically mention having 2 other powers+protection from night kill as the SK last game? That does sound similare. Granted AV saying that as the SK might not be the smartest move, but It is a coincidence to keep in mind.

Aside from that I would like to here from Snowblaze on her thoughts and if she gained anything she can share from the night.

Honestly... I've been thinking about this serial killer thing and I have two thoughts that may or may not hold water but since very few people are voting or discussing who should be voted for, I'll throw them out to see what people think and try to get the ball rolling on at least discussion. Even shooting the ideas down and lynching me is better than saying nothing.

Anyways. I have two opposing theories. Both of which cannot be true but might both be false. They are also based on the following two questions.

1. Why on earth would Town!AV have a power that works on neutral!antiserial killer?

2. Where was the third kill we know exists? There are lots of possibilities but in truth we don't know. However possible answers do factor into my theories.

Theory One:. Fext is a wolf anti-serial killer. This assumes AV is both Town and has been honest. Now have I missed something? Fext claims to be a neutral with just anti-serial killer powers? Powers for hunting and yet not killing? Meanwhile AV is Town and has the ability to kill either the serial killer of Fext? That means Fext can find the serial killer but not stop them and AV has the power to stop a violent anti town neutral and... A truly harmless neutral? That doesn't fit well in my head. But if Fext is a wolf, then it fits better. Fext wouldn't need a killing power because wolf kill. Then it's a serial killer and each faction has an opposing role that can be used to kill/hunt them. Seems like better balance than a serial killer versus a neutral and a townie. It could also explain the second kill. If I were the serial killer with Fext as a serial killer hunter, I would target them. Presumably though Fext has some level of protection. Maybe immune to one serial killer shot, which is why they didn't seem concerned about claiming
Then Fext talks to wolves into shooting to try to get rid of the only person besides the serial killer who is likely to try to kill them. (On top of normal reasons for killing AV.) The big problem with this theory is if I'm right, we shoot a wolf and if I'm wrong we kill a neutral but either way we maintain likely our best chance of finding the serial killer.

Theory two: AV is lying and is the serial killer. I'm less convinced of this one probably. It would explain both kills though. AV got blocked and the wolves tried to kill AV. If I'm wrong on this one though, a powerful townie dies.


Any thoughts? Both theories are probably riddled with holes but it's what has stood out to me for now.

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Also I types this while at work so it might be a nonsensical ramble mess.

[Snowblaze]

So, anyone want to claim to have been roleblocked last night? (Disclaimer: anyone so claiming may be lynched).

I am a member of the town. Though I’d like to hope that’s obvious even without lie detection.

I didn’t get any results I feel like claiming today (no comment on whether I got results I don’t feel like claiming today) and the sum total of my thoughts is “welp, two people in my POE flipped town, I need to re-evaluate”.

Yes, bladescape, we can be town clears together. Though I’m not sure when we ever were before.

gac3, please can you explain your Elenna scumread, and how you went from “AV didn’t bus” to having them as one of your two suspects last night?

Will be afk for most of this morning, but hopefully this afternoon I’ll have some thoughts on where I’ve been going wrong.

[gac3]

So, anyone want to claim to have been roleblocked last night? (Disclaimer: anyone so claiming may be lynched).

I am a member of the town. Though I’d like to hope that’s obvious even without lie detection.

I didn’t get any results I feel like claiming today (no comment on whether I got results I don’t feel like claiming today) and the sum total of my thoughts is “welp, two people in my POE flipped town, I need to re-evaluate”.

Yes, bladescape, we can be town clears together. Though I’m not sure when we ever were before.

gac3, please can you explain your Elenna scumread, and how you went from “AV didn’t bus” to having them as one of your two suspects last night?

Will be afk for most of this morning, but hopefully this afternoon I’ll have some thoughts on where I’ve been going wrong.

I already answered this? I said I thought we were guessing the most likely person to die. I thought Elenna might die. Then I changed my might to AV being a likely death candidate. I was t that far off on that guess.

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You snowblaze, should reread some of my posts today. Do an ISO and see what you think.

[Snowblaze]

I already answered this? I said I thought we were guessing the most likely person to die. I thought Elenna might die. Then I changed my might to AV being a likely death candidate. I was t that far off on that guess.

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You snowblaze, should reread some of my posts today. Do an ISO and see what you think.

Oh, right, I must have missed that at some point. Sorry. (I probably didn't take much of the thread in, it's too early in the morning.)

I already ISOed you, so I don't exactly feel like doing it again. General re-evaluation and working out which townreads I should keep and which I shouldn't are my priorities. I definitely won't just blindly write you off as "POE, can die" though.

Also I just realised AV is actually claiming to have been roleblocked. I was meming but now I'm genuinely paranoid.

[gac3]

Oh, right, I must have missed that at some point. Sorry. (I probably didn't take much of the thread in, it's too early in the morning.)

I already ISOed you, so I don't exactly feel like doing it again. General re-evaluation and working out which townreads I should keep and which I shouldn't are my priorities. I definitely won't just blindly write you off as "POE, can die" though.

Also I just realised AV is actually claiming to have been roleblocked. I was meming but now I'm genuinely paranoid.

Oh well. That's fine. I was hoping you'd get a specific reference I made in the night. But I'll explain it after the game I guess.

[Book Wombat]

Another guess then AV since I was also thinking of Yzma, something to do with GF?

[AvatarVecna]

Another guess then AV since I was also thinking of Yzma, something to do with GF?

GF? Not sure what that is, sorry.

[Metastachydium]

Also I just realised AV is actually claiming to have been roleblocked. I was meming but now I'm genuinely paranoid.

The seer(s?) likely don't think it's worth it to share their results, if they didn't find wolves. This is kinda TWTBW with asking for seers to reveal themselves.

That's why I wanted a seer scry on AV. We need to know whether they are on our side or not, especially now that this, khm, weird coincidence occured.

As for Fext, they had a comment where they called the idea of AV and them being scried "silly". Could it be that they are worried about something?

All in all, I'm joining the camp speculating that one of them is a wolf.

[Book Wombat]

GF? Not sure what that is, sorry.

Gravity Falls.

[AvatarVecna]

Gravity Falls.

Ah! Nope, sorry.

[Rogan]

I am a member of the town. Though IÂ’d like to hope thatÂ’s obvious even without lie detection.

I didn’t get any results I feel like claiming today (no comment on whether I got results I don’t feel like claiming today) and the sum total of my thoughts is “welp, two people in my POE flipped town, I need to re-evaluate”.


Will be afk for most of this morning, but hopefully this afternoon IÂ’ll have some thoughts on where IÂ’ve been going wrong.

For what it is worth, I am extremely confident you are not a wolf. I am much less sure about the possibility of you being the serial killer, but it's nothing to be too worried about.
(That being said, I could use your statement to check you. But this would be an action used poorly. There are much more suspicious people to take a look at)

Did your POE include Blades? I think you had him as not-wolf at some time, but I am not sure.

---

Some general observations:
Personally, I don't think AV is the killer again. Her stated role is so similar to the previous UPick, it would be pretty obvious. Killer!AV would not be so obvious? But this could be easily faked.
I think what is worth more is her sarcastic comment on the killers victory condition. She said, the killer would have to kill everyone else. Book claims to be able to win together with the serial killer. So, unless book is lying, AV was going by her old victory condition, which would imply she didn't knew the current one.
Now, there still are some red flags raised by AV and I would not like to see her in the endgame unchecked, but I'm still willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

I also noticed there are still very few votes our there. *hands out some red paint* Come on, use it!

[gac3]

That's why I wanted a seer scry on AV. We need to know whether they are on our side or not, especially now that this, khm, weird coincidence occured.

As for Fext, they had a comment where they called the idea of AV and them being scried "silly". Could it be that they are worried about something?

All in all, I'm joining the camp speculating that one of them is a wolf.

I stand by AV is not a wolf. They might be serial killer but I am not thinking that's the case. But they aren't a wolf.

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For what it is worth, I am extremely confident you are not a wolf. I am much less sure about the possibility of you being the serial killer, but it's nothing to be too worried about.
(That being said, I could use your statement to check you. But this would be an action used poorly. There are much more suspicious people to take a look at)

Did your POE include Blades? I think you had him as not-wolf at some time, but I am not sure.

---

Some general observations:
Personally, I don't think AV is the killer again. Her stated role is so similar to the previous UPick, it would be pretty obvious. Killer!AV would not be so obvious? But this could be easily faked.
I think what is worth more is her sarcastic comment on the killers victory condition. She said, the killer would have to kill everyone else. Book claims to be able to win together with the serial killer. So, unless book is lying, AV was going by her old victory condition, which would imply she didn't knew the current one.
Now, there still are some red flags raised by AV and I would not like to see her in the endgame unchecked, but I'm still willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

I also noticed there are still very few votes our there. *hands out some red paint* Come on, use it!

Are you putting some kind of code in your quotes?

[Book Wombat]

Are you putting some kind of code in your quotes?

That could be the case but I think iDevices have a different formatting than others so they change certain characters.

[Metastachydium]

I also noticed there are still very few votes our there. *hands out some red paint* Come on, use it!

I'd like to hear about Fext first.

I stand by AV is not a wolf. They might be serial killer but I am not thinking that's the case. But they aren't a wolf.

Why?

[Rogan]

Vote Count
Captain Cap (1): Rogan
Fext (2): Gac3, Elenna

I might come back to voting Cap later, but for now I want to poke Fext. Can you confirm whether you're claiming neutral or town? Also, do you have any reads on people? I know reads are harder when you're new, but even looking at other people's arguments, is there anything you do or do not agree with? Anything that strikes you as weird?


The seer(s?) likely don't think it's worth it to share their results, if they didn't find wolves. This is kinda TWTBW with asking for seers to reveal themselves.


Would it help you for everyone to explicitly state that they are a townie, so that you can basically act as a seer by checking if those statements are true? Or is that not how your power works? Feel free not to reply if your power works better without people knowing the details.

Just in case: I am a member of the town.

@Fext I don't know if this is going to help you, but I am still going to say it:
I'm fairly confident Elenna is not a wolf, so I don't belief she is setting you up for a misslynch. But her questions are important. Don't be afraid to be wrong with your reads and don't be afraid to let us know if you don't know how to read someone.

---

Since I said something about my power already, I feel free to talk some more:
I might share my result later, especially if I feel like it would change the lynch target. But it's safe to say, I didn't find a lie, so I can't say someone is guilt.

Using my power to check a claim is possible and I won't mind everyone claiming town. But it would not be the best use of my action as far as I can tell. It could be pretty overpowered when used on the right kind of statement. But I must not tell you what kind of statement I would want you to make.

I also think I am risking to get night killed by scum if there are too many detailed statements. Shooting a normal Seer is normal. I have the potential to be more dangerous.

[bladescape]

So, anyone want to claim to have been roleblocked last night? (Disclaimer: anyone so claiming may be lynched).

I am a member of the town. Though I’d like to hope that’s obvious even without lie detection.

I didn’t get any results I feel like claiming today (no comment on whether I got results I don’t feel like claiming today) and the sum total of my thoughts is “welp, two people in my POE flipped town, I need to re-evaluate”.

Yes, bladescape, we can be town clears together. Though I’m not sure when we ever were before.

gac3, please can you explain your Elenna scumread, and how you went from “AV didn’t bus” to having them as one of your two suspects last night?

Will be afk for most of this morning, but hopefully this afternoon I’ll have some thoughts on where I’ve been going wrong.

I thought you were obvious town D1 in love letter before I was N1'd.

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Kinda treated you as D1 clear buddy that game.

[Rogan]

I stand by AV is not a wolf. They might be serial killer but I am not thinking that's the case. But they aren't a wolf.

Are you putting some kind of code in your quotes?

I think I had asked you about this before, but is there a specific reason you are so sure about AV?

I snip quotes from time to time, or remove a spoiler to make it easier to see the thing I an replying to. Maybe bold some text for emphasis, but this is rare. I might also add a bit of context, if the original post had a quote in it that got lost. (Things like "Quote about AVs claim") But the thing you probably mean is a technical problem.

That could be the case but I think iDevices have a different formatting than others so they change certain characters.

Not an IPhone in my case, but another kind of phone.

[Snowblaze]

Yes, my POE included bladescape.

Speaking of POE... let's build a new one.

bladescape is town because he shot Xihirli.

Meta is town because they're never partners with Caoimhin.

Moonfly is town because Reasons (I am implying something here so Moonfly if you have no idea what I'm talking about please say so.)

Book Wombat is a Survivor. (Or wolfbuddies with exactly Captain Cap, but that's very tinfoil and not something I want to explore in detail.)

Elenna and Batcathat are townreads but not locktown. I don't have reasons to townread either outside their Batcathat votes.

Taffimai can still be a townread, I don't think the reason I'm townreading her is a bad one.

Fext... Fext is probably town for mechanical reasons, an anti-SK wolf would be unlikely to claim to be anti-SK because "hello, SK, I'm trying to kill you" is a pretty easy way to get yourself serial-killed.

AV is the same, except with paranoia - especially since they seem to have some means of not dying? Am I interpreting that correctly?

I've liked a lot of Rogan's recent posting, but it's based more on gut rather than something concrete I have to go on.

So that's
bladescape/Meta/Moonfly
Elenna/Batcathat/Taffimai
Fext/AV/Rogan

Which leaves gac3, Captain Cap and Supagoof. That is still an uncomfortably small POE and I still think I could be misclearing someone. I need to look over my second tier in more detail, but not while phoneposting.

(Also, yeah, I do sometimes post on an iPad so that might be messing up the formatting.)

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I thought you were obvious town D1 in love letter before I was N1'd.

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Kinda treated you as D1 clear buddy that game.

Right, I wasn't townreading you that game because paranoia.

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Also I should probably vote. I'll join Rogan on Captain Cap for now, let's see if we can get some wagons moving.