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Thread: UPick
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2021-03-19, 06:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
It's not an absolute percentage, but that's a good gauge of my thoughts on you, yeah.
The hail mary longshot where you're a wolf and I'm not is: your power feels like too much for one wolf in a two wolf team to have. D1 is a gambit to see who will roleplay or claim to you, but the way you played D1 doesn't feel quite as smooth as a proper wolf plan would be - your partner would've had words about the degree to which you claimed D1. And I gotta be honest: part of the way I was considering testing that was to disintegrate you - that would either take out a wolf who's only faking a transformation because they only got to learn what my powers are and not copy them...or you survive because you copied them and you're not yet vulnerable, and that's too much power for a single wolf (so you must be a townie), so that proves you town (at least in my eyes), and at the very least proves to the rest of town that my power works the way you said it does. You're a solid choice for my disintegrate.
The longer things go on, the weirder I feel about targeting Cap, and even Aleph feels wrong at this point. I kinda wanna look at the people being quiet - Xihirli, Elenna, and especially Book Wombat...somebody else I'm forgetting? I feel like you me and JeenLeen are making a ruckus that's making it easy for the other wolf to stay out of the spotlight. If nothing else, we end up dealing with quieter players - a lack of participation isn't helpful, especially in a game this small.
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2021-03-19, 06:27 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
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2021-03-19, 06:30 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
Beasts ITP tend to be "when you die, a random person responsible for your death dies" or alternatively, "when you die, a random person who was on your wagon today dies", and that benefits wolves more than town since random beasts are likely to target town just by sheer odds. And the reason we don't do non-random town!beasts is because it encourages the beast-townie in question to get themselves killed as quickly as possible, since they're basically guaranteed to take out a wolf. Trade a townie for a wolf D1 when the lynch usually can't ever catch a wolf? Yes please! But yeah, encouraging people to actively pursue their own demise is maybe a good tactic for a given game, but it's a bad strategy for maintaining a community. It's the narrator selecting one player and asking them "alright do you wanna be selfish and play as much of the game as possible, or are you gonna do the right thing and die D1 for your team". That's a ****ty thing for a narrator to put on you.
With random beasts, it's the other way around - wolf!beasts are encouraged to seek their own demise. But it's more fun tricking town into killing you as a wolf strat than it is tricking wolves into killing you as a town strat, at least in my personal experience playing both multiple times.
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2021-03-19, 06:31 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
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2021-03-19, 06:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
Gaining information isn't a waste. The risk that blind firing can hit a townie is why I presented this for town to debate at all in the first place: that scenario I described with you and me as wolves screwing town? It's only very slightly better if we're both townies and just get tricked into dayvigging other townies. "Wasting" a kill on somebody who is either a townie who will live or a wolf who will die doesn't feel like a huge waste to me, because it's only a waste if we were guaranteed to catch wolves with them otherwise. And we most certainly are not - even with how things are going, even with as certain as I feel about JeenLeen, I know in my bones that our three "lynches" today are going to kill one wolf at best. Wasting a kill getting more info isn't a waste. I'm not doing it yet because I wanna hear from other people (quite frankly, you and I are dominating the discussion this game), and while targeting you is worse than targeting a wolf, targeting a townie is even worse than that. If I'm not positive I can hit a wolf, and I don't feel like testing you, I'd rather just not kill anybody with it.
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2021-03-19, 06:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: UPick
Okay reasonable enough for the random angle
I'm more used to the perspective of a non-random town vengeful being like "I'm (probably/hopefully) being either nightkilled or eliminated early this game anyways (more so NK you play for such as a vengeful in my opinion) and I'll get the chance to shoot someone on my way out" but fair and not particularly relevant to this game anyways.
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Oh shoot
Dayvig!JeenLeen is unlikely to carry a nightkill right?
Do we know if the NK is carried by a member or unassigned factional?
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Doesn't seem to be in the OP
I have good reason for wondering this
It might clear Xihirli
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2021-03-19, 06:55 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
AvatarVecna I do fail to see that so long as both of us are confident we're town, why we wouldnt win as town even if we used all day-vig'd provided we survived.
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2021-03-19, 07:02 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: UPick
Readslist:
I'm town
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I think AV is ~never a wolf here
Assuming our Jeen preflip wolf is correct in all but I have a hard time seeing wolf!Aleph just lying about town!Jeen combined with the AV stuff to make it so
Meaning JeenLeen is a wolf and AV is town (because AV doesn't out Jeen as day KP when he actually is as his wolf buddy like, ever)
Sure, there is some bizarre world where AV goes for a play (okay) to fake a partner dayvigging her (what?) prior to using a public dayvig (unlikely) while also claiming some mix of seer and protective (maybe less surprising)
But like still no. Also self-resolving now
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I would be deeply surprised if totadilplayz is a wolf here.
I have in-the-thread reasons to townread him off behavior. I think he's tried absurdly hard to townside with his ability. I, quite frankly, don't believe a wolf dayvig and a dayvig-capable role-copier are ever the same team. He's posting up a storm and seems willing to bounce around the thread.
Paranoia is that he could have made up this entire "my role is having a list" thing and its actually a mafia factional ability where he's the inheritor or something but seems unlikely on a set up spec level.
Again, late game worry if ever
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I have some mechanical reason to townread Xihirli if my assumptions are not flawed
Of course, I can't read ITT Xihirli for anything so shrug if I'm wrong somewhere.
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This leaves
Elenna
BookWombat
CaptainCap
Aleph Null
This is the "to sort in next readslist pile"
I have the most reservations about Cap
Aleph Null comes down to "did decide to hammer out Jeen as a cred play or not"
Elenna needs a reread
BookWombat maybe exists?
And then at the bottom we have JeenLeen as a defacto outed wolf.
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For the record I am confident you are both town
And think using multiple dayvigs is probably fine but I'm not the best set-up speccer. Although I do engage in it relentlessly
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2021-03-19, 07:04 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
"Provided we survive" is the key. I believe it was you yourself who brought up that retribution abilities tend to bypass protection? And that's to say nothing of whatever esoteric powers may be hidden among the town and the wolves.
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Additionally, if you are so confident in our ability to win, why are you so against a kill being "wasted"?
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2021-03-19, 07:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
We dont know anything about the wolves abilities, and frankly speaking that worries me from the info we have of the town. I'd prefer to not shoot fellow town in the head especially when it provides no real info. What would us dayvigging me do? Confirm that I'm town? No, not at all. All it would confirm is that I copied your abilities. Which frankly speaking I would normally say belongs to a wolf then a town, and if a wolf did possess it in this set-up I'd expect it to be stronger then the town's variant in some capacity.
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And all the confirmation would do is something we'd have already confirmed already by me just day-vigging someone.
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2021-03-19, 07:27 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
Here, you offer to use my powers in order to prove that I can trust you, and that's why I don't need to use my power on you.
...and here when I talk it through more seriously, you bring up my own argument about weird wolf powers as a reason why it doesn't prove anything and that's why I shouldn't do it. But this is still proving my conclusion that the game is hardly solved just because we both have these powers.
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2021-03-19, 07:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
More accurately the entire basis on why you should trust me, is That you should trust me that I have those powers. Because that's ridiculously easy to prove. The actual proving of that does nothing.
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Now the whole deal about 2 day vigs probably using their powers in the day?
Because so long as both are confident the other one is town we can get rid of the people we suspect aren't. At a much faster pace then if there was only one or none at all. Because if the scum din't target us and we have town backing. The most likely people to be scum will be eliminated far faster then scum can eliminate us. Even if they do have defenses that doesn't give them the right of way it just makes them be looked at in the future. Seeing as how we will have likely killed one wolf today. Having 6 players tomorrow or possibly 5 allows us to literally kill everyone if they don't focus fire on you. Thus by creating a victory only provided both of us trust the other is town.
Since retributionary abilities exist and the only mostly confirmed wolf's powers are a theoretical day-vig or a beast.
That being said Last Chapter may be stronger then we think, as the last chapter of the death note was used to kill everyone that came after him. As such I'll sacrifice myself to kill him if people think that's the best recourse, because it doesn't kill the other day-vig.
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And by exist I dont mean in this game but in general.
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Well he wanted to at least.
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2021-03-19, 08:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
But since Light Yagami only has on ability it means he can't have both the beast and the day kills. Since those would be two seperate abilities. If he has the former then his teammate has the other. If he has the latter there's no certainty about the beast ability existing.
So AvatarVecna what was the fluff of the day kill attempt as that may prove to be what's needed to show who attempted to kill you.
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2021-03-19, 09:10 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: UPick
I'm starting to think either totaldileplayz or AvatarVecna might be a neutral serial killer. (I think one or two people may have suggested this already, but I was skim-reading to catch up and try to post something before I die and/or gotta go to bed and probably not be online again for a while, so I forget who said it first.)
The OPness of their power, in contrast to the mildness/simplicity of my own and Cao's... well, it's something noteworthy.
From when Cao died:
The phrasing of this doesn't prove there may be a neutral serial killer in addition to (instead of?) mafia, but it implies such is possible.
I'm dead regardless this Day, I'm sure, so no point in trying to persuade y'all otherwise. Just keep in mind one of them can still be a threat, even if I flip wolf.
totaldileplayz, that being the case, if you decide to day-vig me: would you be willing to give the extent of AV's protective abilities before you day-vig me? I'd prefer that info to be public, and you won't be able to give it after I retribute-kill you.
And to town!AV, if totaldile is a serial killer, recall he might be lying about not retaining your abilities after he dies. Maybe he can hold onto them, as long as he doesn't 'transform' again, like the Freelancer in the Final Fantasy Guild game.
And, yeah, I'm purposefully spreading mistrust between you two.
If I'm Town, it's because I'm legit concerned one of you is wolf or a serial killer.
If I'm wolf, it's because you're town I want dead, and maybe still I'm afraid you might be an OP serial killer.
Still sticking by the beast-town claim, but, as I said already, I know I'm dead eventually, so no longer trying to persuade about it.
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2021-03-19, 09:36 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
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- Ithilien
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Re: UPick
I didn't have anything specific in mind either - it was more just the general idea that people had been talking about and to Caoimhin a lot, and they were one of two competing wagons, so I was hoping that as we saw more flips we might be able to go back and get more information from D1. And obviously if Cao flipped wolf we could have taken a closer look at what they said, the people who voted for/against them, etc. Of course that didn't happen, but it's something I was keeping in mind when I moved my vote to Caoimhin.
This was specifically in comparison to Aleph, the other person I was considering voting - nobody really interacted with Aleph, he didn't say much or accuse anyone, and so on. Aleph flipping wolf at the end of D1 would have given basically no information.
Honestly, yeah, I haven't felt super invested - might take a break from Werewolf for the next game or two.
But anyways, here's my thoughts on each player. It's based generally on the assumption that JeenLeen is actually a wolf, mostly because Aleph lying about town!Jeen would be pretty weird - why bother to lie and potentially get found out when Jeen was already likely to be killed without Aleph saying anything?
AvatarVecna: I can't imagine a situation where AV and Jeen are both wolves here. However, I still think there's a strong possibility AV is neutral and using this for towncred, mostly because their claimed powers are super strong for a townie.
Captain Cap: I still like that they proposed the "secret messages using totadile's role list" idea on day 1 (although it's worth noting that their version of the idea involved writing messages by dropping hints that only make sense if you knew the role, which would have been significantly harder to actually implement than the cipher idea). They haven't said much today, which is a little annoying/suspicious (I say, hypocritically).
Jeen was on Caoimhin yesterday, which could have been protecting wolf!Cap, I guess, but Jeen's posts don't really read like they're pushing the Caoimhin lynch.
I guess it's worth noting that JeenLeen pushed Cap as a vote target after Jeen was outed? Could be trying to make us trust wolf!Cap, but it's also entirely possible that Jeen knows we'll think that so they're actually trying to make us doubt town!Cap. Too much WIFOM for me to try to read anything into it.
Also, as previously mentioned, they proposed the bad plan for AV to dayvig Jeen, but I don't see any reason for wolf!Cap to suggest that if they're on a team with Jeen, so that doesn't really seem like evidence of wolfiness to me.
Xihirli: Hasn't really said anything much of substance - pretty much just that she thinks AV is wolf or neutral due to her claimed powers being too strong. Xi, got any thoughts on the rest of the players?
I'm also curious about Apogee's mechanical evidence for Xihirli's towniness. I can make a guess, and it does exonerate Xihirli somewhat, but it's definitely not certain.
Aleph Null: I agree with AV and Apogee, that claim could be distancing. I could definitely see wolf!Aleph panicking and trying a bit too hard to distance when they realized that Jeen was going to die, especially since there are likely only two wolves. And I still feel that a role that's so dependent on another role seems weird in a UPick game.
Beyond that, they've said almost nothing. Definitely leaning wolf on Aleph.
totadileplayz: I do believe that totadile has AV's powers - the dayvig at least is easy to prove. That doesn't necessarily mean they aren't a wolf, though. Mechanically, they haven't done all that much that would help town. The fact that they back up AV's claims here gives them a bit of towncred, but most of what they've said to back up AV's claims was said before AV accused JeenLeen. The main reason I'm townleaning totadile is that their posts (especially on D1) feel like they're just posting stuff as they think of it, and I feel a wolf would be more inclined to think things through completely before posting.
Book Wombat: Made several posts at the start of the game - mostly RP, a little light discussion of what was happening - and then dropped off the face of the earth, despite apparently being online earlier today. Sigh.
Apogee1: Being fairly talkative and helpful (at least in comparison to some other people (I say, again, hypocritically)). Not seeing anything particularly suspicious here, but I'm also not seeing anything that really jumps out as towny. More content than Cap, at least - I actually have an idea what Apogee is thinking, although I would like to see that "next readlist" he mentioned making.
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I personally don't like the idea of using the other vig kill on totadile. Mostly because, as I said above, I doubt they're lying about AV's powers. If totadile is a wolf with AV's powers, a vig-kill on them won't help matters.
I think at least one of the vig kills should be used on the super quiet players - ideally Aleph but I'd also be okay with Xi or BW - if only because it doesn't seem that we're likely to get information on them any other way. I'd be fine with using both vig kills in this group, honestly.
Of the other two players, Captain Cap and Apogee, I'm having a lot of trouble ranking them. I feel like with Cap, there are a lot of things to talk about (the cipher plan, the way Jeen voted the counterwagon to Cap yesterday but is now pushing a Cap lynch, the suggestion that AV should dayvig Jeen) but it all kinda works out to a vague neutral/slight town read. Whereas Apogee's posts have just been generally feeling like "good townie trying to analyze" but without much of anything specific that catches my attention.
I think I'm leaning slightly towards preferring a Cap kill over an Apogee kill, if only because from what I know Apogee's power seems more useful for town.I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2021-03-19, 09:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2017
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- Germany
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Re: UPick
I'm confused, oh well.
What was the poem from Xihirli about? Was it triggered by Apogee1 targeting her or something else?
Honestly seeing these powers makes mine feel a bit underwhelming. Makes sense though considering which character I chose.
totadileplayz might be able to confirm that I'm town, my role has two words, nine and eight letters respectively.
I'll voteJeenLeenI guess? Aleph somehow feels suspicious though.
EDIT: I didn't post yesterday because after I read through the thread I wrote something but then got distracted and forgot to post it.Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-03-20 at 02:20 PM.
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2021-03-19, 09:55 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
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2021-03-19, 10:58 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
Those two being Elenna and Apogee1
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2021-03-19, 11:48 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
I've seen it speculated about an awful lot and mostly I've kept quiet, but now that one of the wolves is casting serious shade based around it, I'm going to clarify it:
That bolded/underlined part is not about "you learn how my kill looks", it's "you'll learn my alignment when I do it". Y'all are right that my powers feel stronger than you think - and that's because y'all don't know all the details, even totadile doesn't because they haven't been acting that way today.
Yeah, I'm betting that had some redacted text in it, tot. The full version looks like this:
Originally Posted by AV QT
Xihirli: "That's too powerful to be town."
AV: "Correct."
I'm not hiding it, and I never have been. When I suggested this 2nd lynch plan, I did so with the full knowledge that it would reveal my alignment when I used it. It's obvious that it's intended to balance the kill out a bit, make town worry about my allegiances. Like oh yeah, AV publicly murders somebody outside the lynch and NK, and the kill even calls them out as a neutral? String em up!
D1, I had this:
That question I was maybe gonna ask y'all was the one I asked at the start of D2, about the idea of using it as a 2nd lynch. The reason I held off asking it D1 is because it was so late in the day at that point that town wouldn't really have time to fully discuss it and figure out how they wanna use it, if at all, so I held off. The question I asked the narrator was me confirming with them that my kill results in a full death reveal, which is why my SoD2 post specifies "yes, narrator confirmed for me it's a full death reveal". This has been on my mind for awhile now.
I'm a neutral survivor. Mechanically speaking, I just wanna reach the end of the game, I don't care who wins. But one way I could play that is faffing about like "oooooh uhhhhhh geeeeee do I wanna kill a single person to speed up the game in exchange for outing myself as nontown, or do I keep quiet and just hope everything goes my way". Just keep my head down and don't attract attention and hope the game resolves itself in a happy way for me.
Nah. That's not fun. That's a boring way to survive Let's try using all the stupid OP powers I was given to survive this game, and use them in town's favor. **** it. Picked a side D1 and ran with it - if it looks like wolves are winning later on, I can change my answer just fine.
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2021-03-20, 12:19 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
I mean I do wish I could have gotten the second part of the dayvig power but that would have been a boon in my hands, and revealed your alignment. Both of those being why it was omitted in the first place.
But yeah I did want to reveal what I got so you can understand how my role abilities work. I'm basically just a town-aligned dupe who can't learn about alignments from his powers.
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2021-03-20, 11:39 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
My personal vote would be for Apogee1, which at best ties things up AFAICT (I haven't seen many other people discussing who the pseudo-lynch should be for, unfortunately >.<). But since it's my kill, I'm gonna say I get the tiebreaker soooooo DISINTEGRATE: APOGEE1
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2021-03-20, 11:44 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: UPick
Apogee1 died today. He was disintegrated. Apogee1's role was Big Brother.
Originally Posted by Unavenger
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2021-03-20, 11:49 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
immediate thoughts on that: Xihirli and totadile are clear.
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2021-03-20, 12:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
With That I Think We Win Today. Since Jeenleen is bound to be the second mafia.
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That Being said, they really were an idiot.
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They had no reason to come up with the fake claim, since Big Brother as a role claim was one I could actually see who's tapped someone already, while Spy might have made sense. Big Brother Agents being aware of their target but not aware of their current appearance makes sense without any fake claiming at all. Keep Things simple.
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Also AV as I am the Second Day Breaker. I'm going to day-lynch someone tonight. So, further thoughts. Jeenleen is being lynched, Apogee is dead. Now, if Apogee was trying to make Jeenleen a scapegoat, which yeah not going to happen. I can probably just end the day right here.
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2021-03-20, 12:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
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Re: UPick
Nice pick, AV! (Even though I'm still a little skeptical of your claim - survivor is just such a nice safe claim for basically any neutral.)
Can't help but notice that this doesn't actually confirm that AV is neutral... I'm guessing that was just an accident, or maybe left out because AV already claimed, but still
Xihirli, yeah, for sure. I'm not quite sure why this clears totadile but maybe I just need to go back and reread.
Wait, when did Apogee fake-claim? As far as I can tell, their claim was completely honest except that they (obviously) left out the part about being mafia?
Also yeah I see no reason not to dayvig Jeen at this point.I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!
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2021-03-20, 12:22 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
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2021-03-20, 12:24 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2018
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Re: UPick
JeenLeen died today. He was disintegrated. JeenLeen's role was Light Yagami.
Originally Posted by Unavenger
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2021-03-20, 12:28 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
That feel when you personally catch two wolves D2 but town still suspects you cuz you're a neutral.
Can't help but notice that this doesn't actually confirm that AV is neutral... I'm guessing that was just an accident, or maybe left out because AV already claimed, but still
Xihirli, yeah, for sure. I'm not quite sure why this clears totadile but maybe I just need to go back and reread.
(There's also an edge-case where scum!Apogee deliberately targeted scum!Xihirli with a "know target's power name and target" scry, but the only reason to do that is if Apogee didn't actually trust that Xihirli was a scumbuddy instead of a spy? Or maybe it was deliberate misdirection - Apogee knowing that their scry would be made public knowledge, and they targeted Xihirli as a subtle distancing ploy? But I don't see anything in Apogee's power that would indicate they should've expected their power targeting would be publicly known, so there'd need to be some other wolf involved, and now we're getting into a 3-wolf team set-up that doesn't even involve JeenLeen.)
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2021-03-20, 12:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2019
Re: UPick
Also the Disintegration Confirms me. Green is town, Blue has to Be Neutral, and If Mafia had it Red.
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2021-03-20, 12:30 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: UPick
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