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Thread: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 08:49 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Sorry, this took longer than expected/ planned. I'm a bit distracted and on mobile.
I wouldn't put much weight on the mistake at the vote count. The first count WAS correct, after all. Gac voted later. It's something to keep in mind, but I don't see an advantage of faking the count in this way.
Are you sure about some role being able to check you because you have some secret info? Last U-Pick had a player with the roles list, if I remember correctly.
If you flip town, the players voting you should be checked for a hostile motive and everyone should keep an eye on me to see if I have too much information.
If you are scum, everyone you could have pushed to 3 votes should be checked for a possible team. Yes, this includes myself. I know I am town, but everyone else can't be sure.
And, as Snow mentioned (see below) if you flip scum, Elenna is very unlikely to be in your team. Same for AV and Meta. They could easily change their vote, since they didn't have much reason to vote for you.
Flipping you will only prove your alignment, but it will give hints for multiple other players.
Regarding the read list, many entries are short compilation of info without a read. That's not surprising, since there are not many things to go by and if I had to do a read list, many entries would be "no idea" as well.
But along with the TL;DR part, it looks a bit like you're trying to make up for the lack of real contributions with a lot of empty words.
I like the observation about BCHs ominous presence comment. Bat do you still doubt the warning had a mech meaning? If yes, why?
Well, when there is no good reason to suspect someone as wolf, voting for a fair distribution of the lynch sounds like a good enough reason. Sure, it's only slightly better than random, but what do you expect from the first post of the game?
So, thinking about it some more, I think I should not give you town points for not voting me with a OMGUS, explanation. Maybe even a slight scum lean, since it could be a subtle way to accuse me which didn't work out. Opinions, anybody?
The "Bat do you really want to kill me?" was a joke reply to a vote I don't take terribly serious. But your reading is partly right. I think I am bad at hiding my allies. See love letter. When my joke / distance vote for AV suddenly gained traction and put her in the lead, I was getting nervous. So keeping wolf!me alive might be more helpful than lynching me immediately.
Gac, do you think the mistake stands out in a negative way? What do you think would be the reason to fake it?
I'm not sure if I understand your line of thought correctly. You say Fext didn't use an optimal strategy, so he is scum? The same logic was used by AV last game to push a misslynch. In addition, let's assume Fext has a way to survive a night kill (or every kill by the killer). By going public when the topic of SK was discussed, he doesn't lose much, but gains some support by town. Sure, it could be a trick, but it would be quite bold.
Somehow, I am getting the impression you are suspecting everyone and everything... AV might still be the killer? Why would AV tell us she has some special knowledge about the killer while she is the killer herself? Sure, she gains a bit of town cred, but she gains even more attention. Seems like a bad risk/reward ratio.
Now, those are good questions. I think, there is currently the hypothesis that every killing power has a line about the SK. It would be nice to get confirmation for this, but this would require yet another killing power to be active.
My own vague impression is, Fext and AV had different sources. I could speculate some more, but I am not sure if this would be helpful.
I second Snows questions for Fext.
The parts about Cao are included in my post above. Mostly quoting this since I referenced it already.
The general notion of this post is easy to understand. I was paranoid about AV in PJ as well, which resulted in a killed Seer. Okay, AV got back from the dead and helped town win the game but this was not planned.
The problem I see is the specific plan. You want to get her lynched. Not checked. I'm totally in favor of checking, but simply lynching AV out of principle is a bad move I am not willing to support. See also Snows reply (not quoted, I have nothing to add)
You might be, but I don't speak the language this book is written. But maybe I can learn this language...
I noticed you ask many questions. Why?
Do you have any reads? Any people you don't want to die for other reasons?
And all the questions asked by Meta.
So you don't have a killing power?
Oh, and are you The Three Investigators (Die drei ???, in German)? This would be a hilarious way to hide that you added your role to your Sig.
You seem to be a bit defensive here. It's not your fault people are voting for Cao. But you are still doing so yourself.
Do you think he is a wolf? Why / Why not?
If you don't think he is a wolf, why are you still voting him?
Please note I can imagine a reason or two to vote for Cao, so I don't want to say you are wolfy for doing so. But I want to hear your reasons in your own words.
For you, the question as well:
Do you have a killing power?Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-10-17, 08:51 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Okay, I 99% don't believe this statement: it wouldn't be new for AvatarVecna to claim something false at the beginning for whatever reason. Are they a baddie? Are they trying to draw the baddies' attention for tonight? I have no idea, but I see absolutely zero reasons to believe their words or for them to come out as a vigilant at this point of the game if they truly are.
And then the "useful asset" gains trust by simply being useful, people stop questioning their true motives and once the inconvenient truth comes to light it's too late to actually do anything about it.
I'm sorry, but given what happened in the last Upick, I think the "useful asset" argument is not a good reason by itself to keep a potentially dangerous opponent alive.Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-10-17 at 08:54 AM.
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2021-10-17, 09:00 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
I mean, just before my wagon happened I was thinking "gamestate feels kind of stagnant, maybe wolves don't care that Caoimhin is likely to die".
Then the gamestate stopped being stagnant.
There's definitely a world where bladescape is trying to save his buddy Caoimhin, but that way lies confbias and paranoia.
I'll ISO Caoimhin, see where that gets me.
Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO
I've already explained my thoughts on the initial BCH vote (speaking of BCH, they seem a bit quieter than usual. Any particular reason?)
The reasons for voting BCH are understandable. Not so much a fan of "isn't putting out a random vote the townie thing to do?" especially since iirc Rogan was randomly voting at the time, and just wasn't ready to seriously vote Cao.
The early reads are fine, so is pressuring bladescape for a vote.
I get the "I don't see how it would shine light on other players" thing. That's definitely a thought processes I've had as town.
I already mentioned my issues with the reads list, but another thing I kind of feel is that there's a lot of reads that don't say very much and then the tl;dr kind of just repeats a lot of what was there. Yes, there are a lot of people who haven't done very much AI stuff yet, but in that case why make a full reads list?
*shrug* I'm allowed to agree with someone on some points and still think they're a wolf.
Also there's been a bit of a theme of poking people for content rather than actually having and voting wolfreads. Which I'm not too much a fan of, it suggests a wolf struggling to find a plausible push.
tl;dr I'm okay with my Caoimhin vote rn, I feel like they have a decent chance of flipping wolf.
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Got to go. Will hopefully be able to at least check in before EOD. Please don't lynch me ;)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 19
Games as town: 29.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 31
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2021-10-17, 09:05 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
I'm still not sure about this Cao matter, but given the amount of conversation it has spawned, mafia or not his death would be a pretty decent source of intel at this point.
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2021-10-17, 09:11 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-10-17 at 09:11 AM.
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2021-10-17, 09:20 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
…
You are very correct (and now I wonder why Snow and especially Captain Cap, who posted after you, didn't point that out). We should check AV, the sooner the better. In case we lose the seer(s?) early, however, I'll begin to advocate not letting AV and their kill power anywhere near the endgame.
You seem to be a bit defensive here. It's not your fault people are voting for Cao. But you are still doing so yourself.
Do you think he is a wolf? Why / Why not?
If you don't think he is a wolf, why are you still voting him?
Please note I can imagine a reason or two to vote for Cao, so I don't want to say you are wolfy for doing so. But I want to hear your reasons in your own words.
For you, the question as well:
Do you have a killing power?
Speaking of which, I'd like to hear Xihirli's answer to the same question.
I concur. (Which is another reason why I'll probably stay on Cao unless something big happens before the day ends.)Last edited by Metastachydium; 2021-10-17 at 09:22 AM.
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2021-10-17, 09:22 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 09:24 AM (ISO 8601)
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2021-10-17, 09:25 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at too. I'm not sure I quite understand the case against Cao, but I can't see any better ones and him flipping should indeed give us something more to go on.
I didn't really mean that I doubted it much, just not ruling out the possibility that it didn't (I don't know about Unavenger, but if I ran I game I'd probably be open to making some unfounded warning just to see people freak out about it ). But I do agree that it most likely did have some reason behind, whether in relation to a serial killer, some wolf power or some other hostile role.
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2021-10-17, 09:27 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 09:31 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 09:31 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Fleeting dreams of paper wings.
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2021-10-17, 09:33 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Blades, my gut says you are not a wolf. My brain is saying you are deliberately unhelpful. I hope this will change tomorrow.
I know your position very well. I had similar feelings about AV in my first game.
Snow is a skilled player and very good at avoiding the lynch, even if the lynch would be deserved. She is also right when she said that she is capable of driving the discussion as a wolf.
Your gut feeling can still be right, but I would not put too much emphasis there.
For AV and Fext, I would advise against a vote today. Their public claim let's them stand out, but it seems a bit too obvious for a wolf to do so.
If you want me to elaborate, feel free to ask.
A death activated power is unlikely. There was something in the OP about roles that win by getting lynched being forbidden.
Do you really want me to answer this?Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-10-17, 09:35 AM (ISO 8601)
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2021-10-17, 09:39 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
As for me, it seems AvatarVecna is currently at no risk of getting lynched, so discussing about keeping them alive or not is relatively pointless right now. Besides, I'm not really advocating for their death (my vote is still on them mainly because none of the main wagons attract me), I'm simply saying that I don't trust them and that we shouldn't decide the fate of a possible enemy basing only on their potential usefulness (which is usually proportional to their danger).
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2021-10-17, 09:45 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
While I appreciate the concurrence I don't think Snow is Conclusive, just suspicious enough that I think we need them out.
Honestly the fact that you aren't wolfreading me when I come out of left field rapidly defending someone I haven't mentioned after almost a whole day of minimal posting is suspicious. New guy suddenly rapidly posting defense of someone with stupid confidence would set off MY wolf alarms. Once again, zero hard evidence but every comment puts me deeper in suspicion of Snow.
Fair enough, the Elena guess was me throwing a wild guess. And I appreciate the vote of confidence.
I can't take that at face value or as any evidence at all. I have neither the experience with Snow or any reason to trust you to take what's basically conjecture as a reason to back down. Granted I also don't have much more than gut instinct on this either, but I'll trust my gut over a vague "they're just like that" any day.
Not disputing but legitimate question: how does the death help? Do we get a role reveal when they die? If not how on earth could it help? Beyond reactions to the death I can't see lynching them, or anyone for that matter, being an investigative tool. If someone could explain it to me that would be great, because I'm sure I'm missing something on this since I'm new.
I don't agree with that assessment of cao and snow, but I agree that AV is a danger but one we deal with later, but not TOO much later.
All snow has provided is defenses for themselves and lack luster evidence or concurring with other people. Cao's recaps, lists, and debates have helped create a better picture of what's going on for me, at least. And while I disagree with a lot of what he said I think he's still providing more than Snow, especially because that one REEKS deception to me.
So you say that, but it's convenient that no one can confirm you aren't a threat, isn't it?
Personal theory time:
AV and Fext are not both possessing anti SK roles. Ones the Serial Killer, and the other is the Anti SK. Just a thought, but a potent one in my mind.Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-17 at 09:54 AM.
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2021-10-17, 09:51 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
I do not have a roles list.
So, last UPick Game I was lynched because "it would provide info". Gonna follow out your logic and see what y'all would learn.
If I flip Town:
Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna are checked for hostile motive. Keep an eye on Rogan.
If I flip Evil:
Check everyone I could have pushed to 3 votes for scum. That includes: Xihirli, Rogan,CaoimhinTheCape. Clear Elenna, AV, and Meta.
Either way, no info on Book Wombat, Captain Cap, Batcathat, Taffimai, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape. For the most part they are passively OK with me getting lynched. Moon has recently defended me, slight points to Blade who have actually made recent votes.
Spoiler: count at the time of my votegac3 (1): Rogan
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (2): Moonfly7, CaoimhinTheCape
Not Voting: Snowblaze, SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape
Is that the info you're happy to learn when I flip? Cause I see 8 players who haven't commented on me at all. If I flip Town on the lynch, it'll look suspicious in that they avoided talking about me while letting my lynch happen. If I flip Scum on the lynch, it'll look like they had no route to save me and stayed quiet (barring maybe a Snow lynch now?)
You're wrong about me not giving info on the reads list. Maybe I could have said it more plainly but here's the list below:
Rogan, Snowblaze have done a lot to push discussion forward. Off chance that Wolf!Snow pushed my wagon to protect a buddy with votes (Rogan, Xihirli, or BCH at the time) but I'd lean Town trying to help (even at my expense).
Elenna has only a couple posts but engages right away, so that's find.
SupaGoof has no posts.
AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Captain Cap will survive through the Day, but would love to know any opinions.
BladeScape gave an opinion on Snow and Rogan, but hasn't put down a vote.
Batcathat, Book Wombat have a deceptive amount of posts. Worried about them.
gac3 should come back and tell us what he's thinking.
Rogan, Snowblaze as Town (I don't know that I could be more clear on that).
Elenna as Town lean, not as strong as Rogan/Snow.
SupaGoof as No Info. (literally nothing)
AV, Xi, Captain Cap as Neutral. (lack of useful content)
Blade was a small Wolf Lean.
BCH, Book Wombat as Wolf lean.
gac3 vote (implying I think he's Wolf).
I guess I didn't need to reiterate my thoughts but I wanted to order them from Towniest to Wolfiest. I have no info to go on for my Neutral reads, seeing as there's so little info. I gave you 3 people I lean town on, 3/4 I find Wolfish. And the newer players I left out, seeing as I won't vote them today.Avatar by AstralSeal
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2021-10-17, 09:53 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 09:54 AM (ISO 8601)
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2021-10-17, 09:56 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
That's a fair and sensible position to take. AV is hard to read and good at manipulation. Not trusting her on reads alone is something I can get behind.
I also can understand your position regarding Cao. It seemed important to me to make sure you are at least a bit committed instead of only voting there as a joke.
Sorry, I didn't remember you already claimed not killing. Thanks for repeating.
Thanks for your answer as well. It's something to remember in case I join a game hosted by you.
I won't clear you for this, but I don't think I should suspect you in particular either.
So, you have multiple powers, at least two are killing? Wow, you really know how to formulate your role concepts!
Since I only have one power, which is kind of situational, it makes me think you are more likely to be non-town. Not necessarily evil, but not town. Of course your powers could also have some serious limits... can you comment?
I have one situational active power and something redacted.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-10-17, 09:59 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 09:59 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
In general, it puts all the votes and discussions in a new, more informed light. In our specific case, if Cao flips town, the fact the arguments used against him are not particularly strong could suggest some hidden motives: perhaps there were too many 2-vote wagons wolves and wolf!Snowblaze decided to take the matter on her hand; or maybe Snowblaze motives were genuine and some wolves simply decided to pile on a safe target. If Cao flips mafia, the recent speed wagon on Snowblaze might turn out to be an attempt by the wolves to save their companion and in any case it would merit our attention.
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2021-10-17, 10:01 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
See my post above. I especially don't like that it would give no info on either of you. You're endorsing my lynch without voting me, which seems like you don't want to get blood on your hands.
High-Key don't like Captain Cap saying my death would be a source of intel but none of the main wagons attracted him.
You said it, not me. That only makes my lynch less helpful.Avatar by AstralSeal
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2021-10-17, 10:03 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Makes sense, although if Cao does flip wolf I'm not going to have a good time. I petitioned hard for snow and argued for Cao to be saved, looking like he won't make it now sadly. But I'm pretty confident he isn't mafia, if he is I'll be the first to acknowledge that I both messed up, and look very suspicious.
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2021-10-17, 10:06 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
Why not? No flip is ever going to give insight on every player, especially in the first days, when there's not much to form strong opinions on. Besides, 50% of the player base is involved in some way or another in this matter, so it doesn't seem bad at all to me for Day 1.
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If Snowblaze overtakes you, we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other.
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2021-10-17, 10:14 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
I do get what he's saying about you agreeing but not voting either way. Just conjecture, but if I wanted someone dead but wanted to keep myself above suspicion I would do that, exactly. Persuasive, passive, "they're looking very suspicious lets be smart and learn something". But I wouldn't vote, not voting keeps me looking impartial and like an island of reason. I don't think that means your wolf, but I do think your trying to keep your hands clean for your own reasons, because if you really wanted that information you'd cement a vote for the one you thought would answer the most questions.
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2021-10-17, 10:14 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
More importantly, Cao, I see you're rallying against the arguments for your lynching (and reasonably so), but you're failing to give a good reason we should lynch someone else in your place.
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2021-10-17, 10:15 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
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2021-10-17, 10:15 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
AV is saying they shouldn't be cleared for this and with how they bus, that's fair. That means AV is suspicious no matter what. Rogan himself said that people should keep an eye on him either way.
So you get reads on Meta, Snow, Elenna, and Moon (adding in because of recent defense). You maybe get info on Xihirli.
My problem is you're saying this is preferable to dealing with the large group that doesn't seem to care about this lynch one way or the other.
Wait, what? You're saying that you don't prefer my wagon over Snow? I'm confused at this.Avatar by AstralSeal
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2021-10-17, 10:16 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo
But why? He's already the top wagon, and the second wagon is equally good to me. Do I have to put a vote on one of them just to look good?
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Matter of fact I don't. You can pretty much flip the conclusions you would get in the two cases.
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And how do you deal with them? What's your proposal? This is pretty in line with my previous point: