Wilder West WW: Wait, Who Shot The Sheriff?

[Xumtiil]

One confirmed gun activation from Book, one activation missing. Either someone hasn't claimed activated yet, or Snow got activated and scum might try for a fake claim.
I did not get activated.

I'm going to need some time to go through the posts again to make up my mind. Book is definitely town, and apparently vig, so he's cleared (and likely safe from lynching - with one scum left they're going to need to up the kill rate to win).

I'm in two minds about proposing that we as town decide Book's target - on the one hand, at least there won't be any surprises who gets vig'd, on the other hand, telegraphing to scum which is the next target could backfire (Book didn't fire so we lynch the target haha it was town).

Maybe we should mitigate by picking 2, and letting Book decide which one he goes for? If he gets activated, it's likely the other one is town as scum wouldn't risk the odds of getting shot. No activation doesn't mean scum, though, they could be toying with us.

[Taffimai]

It's also plausible that if I'd rolled wolf again I'd be throwing pretty hard.

My sleep cycles are generally all over the place, particularly when I'm in the midst of trying to fix them (as I have been for the past week). However, you also don't need to take my word for it, because I have proof I was awake at EoD.

So, if you were online, why did you not weigh in on whether Snow or Flat was the better vote? Why leave it up to others?

The general lack of EoD activity saddens me tbh.

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It's because I'm following the Championship and EoD there is full of excitement and hype, I've become addicted to the dopamine

[AvatarVecna]

So, if you were online, why did you not weigh in on whether Snow or Flat was the better vote? Why leave it up to others?

The general lack of EoD activity saddens me tbh.

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It's because I'm following the Championship and EoD there is full of excitement and hype, I've become addicted to the dopamine

My D1s around here tend to be lower energy regardless of alignment. I ramp up after I'm sure I won't be immediately killed off. And as you can see in that thread I was extremely busy with something else.

The only reason I'm holding back right now is that DFW has a big thunderstorm last night so power is out. Once I can type on PC instead of phone I'll be able to analyze D1 better.

[Rogan]

Oh, yeah, I wasnÂ’t activated last night.

@Rogan, you say the flat vote doesnÂ’t limit the suspect pool much - does that mean you think some of the people on flatÂ’s wagon weÂ’re bussing? If so, who?


Okay, good to know. IÂ’m still leaning town on AV.

I mean that few people were (to the best of my knowledge without checking Profiles and stuff) active at this time. And even fewer are still relevant. The flat wagon happened too fast for the wolves to react, so they had to be offline.
To borrow from Snow: Taffi being a wolf is not impossible, merly improbable.
Snow obviously was active, but she is dead.
Bat was online roughly at this time, but he is dead.
Xum was online and casting a vote to make it a tie. I don't think a new wolf would bus like that.
My vote turned a coin flip into a hit. I deffinitly do bus, but I don't like to do so. I guess, If I had been in this situation, I would have waitet to be ninjad by the EOD message, hoping that my vote switch would not count.

I don't remember anybody else beeing active. So from my side, only two persons really profit from the timing part. Thats Taffi and Xum. I don't profit that much, since Snow is not alive to shout at Taffi to stop tunneling me.


So, bussing... If there was a wolf on flat, it would be Xi.
Otherwise, the Wolf has to be in gac, AV, Elenna. Book would be here as well, if he wasn't locked town for the vig shot.

Okay, I realise I had overestimated the number of players.

Xihirli, Taffimai, Xumtiil, Rogan, gac3, AvatarVecna, Elenna, Book Wombat

I don't know if AV is playing as an obvious wolf or not. She would have a reason to do so given the things she said and did in fallout. And now she doesn't have an ally who might feel let down.
Together with Xi, she falls into a categorie of "I have no idea how to read them without mechanical backup".
gac was awfully quiet day 1. He is my top suspect.
Elenna, I remember the one bad thing about you, but this got better with your explanation. I also remember that Snow had you as town. Checking a note, your first vote was on flat, which might have been a distancing move. I should look at you again later.

[Book Wombat]

Whoops! Sorry about that Batcathat, but there can only be one "bat"!
Also, look at my glaringly obvious gun! Wonderful isn't it?

[AvatarVecna]

My being online isn't a good reason to townread me fwiw. Put yourself in those shoes: the wagons are scum!flat vs town!snow, and you're already voting for Snow. The wagon majorly shifts to flat, and now you have two options:

1) do nothing and lose your only partner.

2) try and get a last-minute wagon on some third person, which probably fails and now when flat flips scum, you look guilty as he'll.

I probably wouldn't be throwing that hard. I'd he throwing in a "laid back not really putting lots of effort in" way.

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It also doesn't help that you can clearly see me hyperfocusing in that other thread so it's equally plausible that wolf!AV didn't notice the flat wagon. I was definitely online, that's just not a good reason to townread me.

[Rogan]

One confirmed gun activation from Book, one activation missing. Either someone hasn't claimed activated yet, or Snow got activated and scum might try for a fake claim.

I would have apprechiated if this had not been posted just yet. By spelling out that scum might fake a claim, you might have warned them not to do this.

But since you did say it, let's spell all the options* out:
*assuming honest and active town

0 Kills, 2 Claims. They are locked town. One of them prevented a kill, so they either can clear someone else (night kill target) or can hand us a wolf (roleblocking the kill).
0 Kills, 3+ claims. There is scum fake claiming, greatly reducing the number of possible targets. In combination with the things above, they are pretty much throwing the game.

1 Kill, 1 Claim, no Vig shot. Locked Town. Scum killed one of the townies they were activating.
1 Kill, 2 Claims, no Vig shot. Either 2 Town, with the Scum kill not being on the same target as the activated townie, or one town, one scum, with the real activated townie being dead.
1 Kill, 1 Claim, Vig shot. The vig killed a townie who managed to stop a wolf kill. Realy bad luck. Still locked town.

2 Kills, 0 Claims. Both active Town got killed off.
2 Kills, 1 Claim, Vig NKed. The claim might be true, it might be a lie if the vig hit the second activated target.
2 Kills, 1 Claim, Vig Alive. Vig is locked town and the only one to claim.
2 Kills, 2 Claims, Vig Nked. One or both claims are false.
2 Kills, 2 Claim, Vig Alive. The Vig is loked town and one of the claims. The other one can be scum, if the other activated townie died.


Since it's likely the vig will get activated every night (extra kills are great for wolves), we should be looking at the last options most. Everybody, feel free to correct any mistakes I might have done.
And those of you who didn't claim active / inactive, please do so or give me a very compelling reason to avoid giving town this information. Scum already has it.

[AvatarVecna]

I would have apprechiated if this had not been posted just yet. By spelling out that scum might fake a claim, you might have warned them not to do this.

But since you did say it, let's spell all the options* out:
*assuming honest and active town

0 Kills, 2 Claims. They are locked town. One of them prevented a kill, so they either can clear someone else (night kill target) or can hand us a wolf (roleblocking the kill).
0 Kills, 3+ claims. There is scum fake claiming, greatly reducing the number of possible targets. In combination with the things above, they are pretty much throwing the game.

1 Kill, 1 Claim, no Vig shot. Locked Town. Scum killed one of the townies they were activating.
1 Kill, 2 Claims, no Vig shot. Either 2 Town, with the Scum kill not being on the same target as the activated townie, or one town, one scum, with the real activated townie being dead.
1 Kill, 1 Claim, Vig shot. The vig killed a townie who managed to stop a wolf kill. Realy bad luck. Still locked town.

2 Kills, 0 Claims. Both active Town got killed off.
2 Kills, 1 Claim, Vig NKed. The claim might be true, it might be a lie if the vig hit the second activated target.
2 Kills, 1 Claim, Vig Alive. Vig is locked town and the only one to claim.
2 Kills, 2 Claims, Vig Nked. One or both claims are false.
2 Kills, 2 Claim, Vig Alive. The Vig is loked town and one of the claims. The other one can be scum, if the other activated townie died.


Since it's likely the vig will get activated every night (extra kills are great for wolves), we should be looking at the last options most. Everybody, feel free to correct any mistakes I might have done.
And those of you who didn't claim active / inactive, please do so or give me a very compelling reason to avoid giving town this information. Scum already has it.

To the best of my knowledge my gun didn't go off. But also my gun can activate itself and I don't know what it does to somebody it shoots. I made the decision to not deliberately shoot anybody, but I also can't say with any certainty that I didn't shoot somebody, because I have no idea if I get any feedback when my gun self-activates, nor if the conditions for self-activation occurred.

[Book Wombat]

All town players have guns.

Not all guns are made equal.

Each night the mafia must activate 2 players who are not themselves. Those players have their shots work. All other players can't fire.
(Clarification: All town players must choose a target. They aren't told if they were activated by mafia or not until end of night.)

Any other roles remain hidden until such a time as they're revealed.

But you have to target someone? Or is your gun an exception?

[AvatarVecna]

But you have to target someone? Or is your gun an exception?

I have no reason to think my gun is an exception. But I wasn't aware of thebrule so I just explicitly refused to target somebody.

[Elenna]

Okay, I realise I had overestimated the number of players.

This might be the reason for the confusion? From my POV, there were 5 people on flat, if you're clearing most of them that's 4 or 5 people cleared out of 9 living players, which obviously limits the suspect pool quite a bit. You saying that "doesn't limit the suspect pool much" seems strange and clearly untrue, and made me wonder if you were a wolf trying to cause confusion or increase the number of possible mislynches. Any thoughts on that, now that you've looked at the number of players again?

My being online isn't a good reason to townread me fwiw. Put yourself in those shoes: the wagons are scum!flat vs town!snow, and you're already voting for Snow. The wagon majorly shifts to flat, and now you have two options:

1) do nothing and lose your only partner.

2) try and get a last-minute wagon on some third person, which probably fails and now when flat flips scum, you look guilty as he'll.

I probably wouldn't be throwing that hard. I'd he throwing in a "laid back not really putting lots of effort in" way.

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It also doesn't help that you can clearly see me hyperfocusing in that other thread so it's equally plausible that wolf!AV didn't notice the flat wagon. I was definitely online, that's just not a good reason to townread me.

I'm not really townreading you because of not saying anything EOD, although it helps. The main reason I'm townreading you is the sequence of votes earlier in the day where Xi ties Snow and flat at 3 votes each, then flat and you both immediately jump on Snow with very little explanation. If that's you trying to save your partner, it would be an extremely obvious and clumsy attempt, and I think you're a better player than that. So I think the explanation you gave, of wanting to mess with Snow for fun, is more plausible.

That being said, it is possible that AV was annoyed about getting wolf again and throwing, and in general all my reads on AV should be taken with a whole lot of grains of salt, because AV.

[AvatarVecna]

With the knowledge that refusing to shoot isn't an option, I'd like to nominate AvatarVecna for the lynch. A gun where both the targeting and the effect are unknown is not a gun worth keeping in play when targeting is a requirement.

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And we're in a pretty good position coming out of D1 anyway, so using a day to resolve a tricky slot isn't an awful choice.

[Rogan]

This might be the reason for the confusion? From my POV, there were 5 people on flat, if you're clearing most of them that's 4 or 5 people cleared out of 9 living players, which obviously limits the suspect pool quite a bit. You saying that "doesn't limit the suspect pool much" seems strange and clearly untrue, and made me wonder if you were a wolf trying to cause confusion or increase the number of possible mislynches. Any thoughts on that, now that you've looked at the number of players again?

I suppose my thoughts didn't change much after I made the post where I realized my mistake.
The situation has some good things (we lynched a wolf, obviously, and we have a mech cleared vig) and some bad things (we have a vig who is forced to shoot, so we can expect a deadly game).

So, 4 suspects out of 8 other players (my POV) is nice. Asuming, the wolf won't kill Book until being locked is more harmful than not getting extra kills, we are, at worst, looking at this:
mech cleared town / other town / wolf
1 / 7 / 1 (today)
1 / 6 / 1 (town misslynch)
1 / 4 / 1 (one semi cleared towny NKed, one suspect killed) tomorrow (d3)
1 / 3 / 1 (town misslynch, one suspect remaining)
0 / 2 / 1 (last suspect vigged by Book, Book NKed) (d4) Final 3.

These are odds I'm confortable with, especialy since the other night actions are probably being helpful.
For you, the odds might be different, since you won't include yourself as a suspect.

- - - Updated - - -

So, maybe I should clarify, the <result of Books> night action is very helpful for limiting the suspects as well. One is dead, the other one locked town.

[Book Wombat]

Anyway, if the wolf doesn't want me to kill anyone they can just pick someone else to "activate". Don't have to kill me.

[Xihirli]

gac was awfully quiet day 1. He is my top suspect.

Yeah I'll join in on murdering gac3.

Really happy we got a cowboy d1. That rarely happens.

[gac3]

Hello everyone.
First things first:
Claim: Inactive! Please claim if you were activated or not. Thank you.

I still think Taffis Day 1 was an ugly one. However, I don't see her being that agressive at pushing a lynch on her partner, so this should clear her till F3.

I am willing to bet that Blades would not spell out who killed someone if the killer was a wolf. So Book is locked town. Congratulation! Book is also one of two active townies.
I (still) have some more thoughts about the whole activation thing, but I'll hold them off untill everybody claimed active/inactive.

Since flat became tied for the lynch half an hour before EOD, with my final vote getting in with some 5 minutes to spare, I think it's pretty likely that the wolf team had no chance to react.
This is less helpful than I'd like it, since it doesn't limit the suspects a lot, but it's better than nothing.

I will start with a vote for gac.
Gac, you were awfully quiet day 1. What happened?
Plus... Why do you ask if Snow claimed her gun?

Calculus. Calculus happened.

And I asked because I now have their gun. I assumed they didn't know what their gun did because my gun was unknown but that might have just been me.

Yeah I'll join in on murdering gac3.

Really happy we got a cowboy d1. That rarely happens.

That is pretty nice.

[Xumtiil]

I'm going to revert back to my very first, original day1 vote and say gac3.

I mean, I was right about Snow being town but I didn't expect flat to flip cowboy honestly, so my reads are unreliable and I should just go with the flow.

[Xihirli]

I will chime in to say that I also targeted BatCatHat last night. That might mean something.

[gac3]

So either two people weren't activated or not all guns kill people. Or someone was protected from a kill. If our gun is activated and fails to kill someone (either because of defenses or because it's not a killing gun), would we be told?

[Rogan]

So either two people weren't activated or not all guns kill people. Or someone was protected from a kill. If our gun is activated and fails to kill someone (either because of defenses or because it's not a killing gun), would we be told?

Since I'm not sure if I did understand you correctly:
You were told you had been active this night and grabbed Snows gun?
Why Snow? I totally get Books (and Xihirlis) target choice, but using an unknown power on someone who was very involved in catching a wolf day 1 is a strange move.

Also, Xihirli, did you target Bat and your power failed to activate or do you claim to have used a power on Bat?

And @everyone who hasn't done so before, could you please state "I got a message saying I was active at night" or something similar?*

According to the setup, the wolves pick the town players that will get active. You will be Informed if you had been active.
There is no reason not to claim this part. Don't tell me your target**, don't tell me your power**, don't tell me if you got feedback beyond 'You were active, here is what you did'**. Just tell me "active" or "not active". If you refuse this, you better have a very good reason or you are only helping the wolf. Cowboy. Whatever.

*ONLY IF THIS REALLY HAPPENED AND NOT AS A JOKE!
** unless it's important cause you caught a wolf or can clear a townie.

[gac3]

Since I'm not sure if I did understand you correctly:
You were told you had been active this night and grabbed Snows gun?
Why Snow? I totally get Books (and Xihirlis) target choice, but using an unknown power on someone who was very involved in catching a wolf day 1 is a strange move.

Also, Xihirli, did you target Bat and your power failed to activate or do you claim to have used a power on Bat?

And @everyone who hasn't done so before, could you please state "I got a message saying I was active at night" or something similar?*

According to the setup, the wolves pick the town players that will get active. You will be Informed if you had been active.
There is no reason not to claim this part. Don't tell me your target**, don't tell me your power**, don't tell me if you got feedback beyond 'You were active, here is what you did'**. Just tell me "active" or "not active". If you refuse this, you better have a very good reason or you are only helping the wolf. Cowboy. Whatever.

*ONLY IF THIS REALLY HAPPENED AND NOT AS A JOKE!
** unless it's important cause you caught a wolf or can clear a townie.

No. I targeted AV with my gun and have no idea if it did anything because I received no feedback on that.

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Ah. If we will be informed if activated, then I was not activated.

[gac3]

Alive: 8
AvatarVecna
BookWombat
Elenna
Gac3
Rogan
Taffimai
Xihirli
Xumtiil

Lock Town:
Book Wombat
Rogan
Xumtiil

Nearly Lock Town:
Taffimai
Xihirli

Wolf Candidates:
Avatar Vecna
Elenna



Guys, I took some bladescape advice (I think it was bladescape) and I read next to nothing from day 1. I only looked at votes. I can say with utmost confidence that I fully believe in my above list. I left myself off of it intentionally because I'm unconcerned with convincing you all of my alignment. I think I solved it though. Idk if we started with 2 or 3 wolves but I'm placing my bet on the fact that one or both fall in my list of wolf candidates.

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Xi would be my third most likely wolf but at this point I'd have to see a double town flip I think to not think the wolfs are Elenna and/or AV

[Xihirli]

Also, Xihirli, did you target Bat and your power failed to activate or do you claim to have used a power on Bat?

I received no information, which I take to mean I was not activated.

Nearly Lock Town:
Taffimai
Xihirli

Wait, why am I nearly lock town?

[gac3]

I received no information, which I take to mean I was not activated.



Wait, why am I nearly lock town?

Nearly Lock Town might have been. Bit of an exagération. Strongish town lean would be more accurate. It's a combination of things but primarily when watching the votes. Flat was voted for by elenna and AV. Then you vote for flat. Bringing them up to a real wagon for the first time. Elenna and AV both jump off of that wagon and on to the other two. One of which is you and you stay on flat the whole time.

That whole chain of events make me think you are more likely town than wolf. But it's also partially based on my suspicions that Elenna and/Or AV are wolves

[Elenna]

I'm going to revert back to my very first, original day1 vote and say gac3.

I mean, I was right about Snow being town but I didn't expect flat to flip cowboy honestly, so my reads are unreliable and I should just go with the flow.

People get things wrong a lot, it happens. You're still better off talking about who you suspect rather than just following the majority, discussion is town's main weapon.

Alive: 8
AvatarVecna
BookWombat
Elenna
Gac3
Rogan
Taffimai
Xihirli
Xumtiil

Lock Town:
Book Wombat
Rogan
Xumtiil

Nearly Lock Town:
Taffimai
Xihirli

Wolf Candidates:
Avatar Vecna
Elenna



Guys, I took some bladescape advice (I think it was bladescape) and I read next to nothing from day 1. I only looked at votes. I can say with utmost confidence that I fully believe in my above list. I left myself off of it intentionally because I'm unconcerned with convincing you all of my alignment. I think I solved it though. Idk if we started with 2 or 3 wolves but I'm placing my bet on the fact that one or both fall in my list of wolf candidates.

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Xi would be my third most likely wolf but at this point I'd have to see a double town flip I think to not think the wolfs are Elenna and/or AV

I disagree with you placing Taffimai lower than Rogan and Xumtiil but I can see that just being because you're only looking at votes and not discussion. But if you read the discussion you'll see that the flat wagon only happened at all because Taff and Snow pushed for it super hard.

Anyways, I hope you can see that from my POV, using similar logic, the remaining wolf is most likely to be either you or AV. And I've already explained why I townread AV. Hence my vote on you.

[gac3]

People get things wrong a lot, it happens. You're still better off talking about who you suspect rather than just following the majority, discussion is town's main weapon.


I disagree with you placing Taffimai lower than Rogan and Xumtiil but I can see that just being because you're only looking at votes and not discussion. But if you read the discussion you'll see that the flat wagon only happened at all because Taff and Snow pushed for it super hard.

Anyways, I hope you can see that from my POV, using similar logic, the remaining wolf is most likely to be either you or AV. And I've already explained why I townread AV. Hence my vote on you.

No that's fair. I'm not trying to change anyone off of nothing me.

But yes. Taff is lower because while they did vote in a way that feels unlikely for a wolf, Rogan and Xumtiil actually did Flat in. Xum made it a tie and Rog took it from a tie to sealed.

[Elenna]

Taffimai can you please comment on whether you received a message saying you were activated? The wolves already have this info, no reason to hide it.

Also I'm starting to not feel great about this gac lynch? Like, if he's really the last wolf, he's pretty far in the lead for the lynch (I think... haven't done an actual vote count), he'd be very likely to lose. His posts don't feel like someone who's likely to lose soon. But at the same time, I tend to trust wagonomics more than I trust my read of other people's tone. And anyways he's such an obvious suspect that I kinda feel like he has to die just so we can focus on other people. So I'm leaving my vote there for now, but I'm curious what others think.

Really happy we got a cowboy d1. That rarely happens.

I know I just said I don't trust my read of people's tone, but... this feels super non-genuine to me. Not sure why.

With the knowledge that refusing to shoot isn't an option, I'd like to nominate AvatarVecna for the lynch. A gun where both the targeting and the effect are unknown is not a gun worth keeping in play when targeting is a requirement.

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And we're in a pretty good position coming out of D1 anyway, so using a day to resolve a tricky slot isn't an awful choice.

As I said above, I think we need to resolve gac's slot. But this is worth keeping in mind. Although remember that everyone's gun has an unknown effect, not just yours. And assuming you're town, I don't think bladescape would put in something completely anti-town that you couldn't control at all.

[Xihirli]

I know I just said I don't trust my read of people's tone, but... this feels super non-genuine to me. Not sure why.

Well, I am a liar.

[Taffimai]

My case for why Rogan is a wolf:

I really don’t want to do a post-for-post ISO so I’m just quoting the parts I want to use to show why I think Rogan is a wolf. Let’s start yesterday and move forward:

But hey, there might be more to it: The rules contain a paragraph about scry interference, so it seems very likely that there are multiple scry powers. Maybe two Seer, to increase the chances of a scry actually going off. Seer and Fool is certainly possible as well, but I hope it's something else. Otherwise, as soon as the scum team learns the identity of the fool, they can park their activation there, greatly limiting our chances of actually getting a useful power use. Of course, there might be different kinds of scrys, especially if track/watch counts as Scry as well. Does anybody know how they usually work in regards to the scry interference rule?

The different scry interferences are spelled out in the first posts of AV’s Mafia Capital thread. I give it a 0% chance that Rogan hasn’t read those, since he loves the mechanical side of the game. This is pure filler.


The following are two posts where Rogan talks about Snow or responds to other people’s votes for Snow, heavily snipped to show only the parts I want to talk about:

<snip>

In combination with Snows post above, this might have been a distancing move between them, but since I feel postive that gac didn't know his alignment at this time, thats a moot point.

<snip>

You don't always vote in order to kill. Votes are not locked in and especially on day 1, they are expected to change.
If Snow actually had landed on the new player, I might even call her town for this. I realy doubt a SnowWolf would go after a new player, even when the vote is unlikely to stick. The way it is now, I can see the RNG.

<snip>

I think, this is a slightly better reason. But let's be fair here: There is not much to go by at this point, so using a random vote to create activity and reaction is fine. And I'd say, assuming this was Snows goal: Mission accomplished*.

<snip>

You had to say "please don't kill me" here, didn't you?

<snip>

Snow, here is your friendly reminder to study!

I think unprompted is a very strong word. Sure, nobody said "hey, what do you think about Rogan" but her read was in direct response to one of my posts.

<snip>

Your reasons for the vote seem fair enough. What did you learn from the reactions? Or is it still too early to tell?

<snip>

Okay, so I'm not a cool kid. I'm not voting for her and I think the case against her is a bitoverblown. I'm not sure she is town and I won't fight hard to save her unless things change. A flip would yield some Intel even if she is town.

<snip>

<snip>

I can see your point about Snow not using RNG. I wouldn't have called her out on this and I can see Town!Snow use this, but yeah Wolf!Snow might do this as well so she doesn't need to make up some kind of reason.
I might do an ISO of Snow tomorrow, but no promises. If the problems with the search persist, it would be annoying (I made a reply in the thread you linked) and I have RL stuff to do as well, so I'm not sure if I can get to it in time.

<snip>

Ah, okay. You are an eeeevil person

<snip>

Rogan goes back and forth between defending Snow and validating people’s votes for her, without adding his own arguments. It’s what you do when you’re a wolf and obviously know the person is town: you don’t want to stop the lynch, but you also don’t want to take the blame for it.


In comparison to previous games where he’s actively analysing posts for wolfiness, most of Rogan’s posts this game have more been commentary rather than wolfhunting. The best example I can give is here:

<snip>

Yeah, some "I agree" was mising in there. But okay, I can see your intention now and I guess it's fine.

<snip>

That’s such an odd thing to say one player to another, really more like a teacher giving feedback when grading a paper than two equals talking to each other. I thought about calling it W/W because of how unnatural it is except that nothing else Elenna has done has struck me as wolfy. Going to be very embarrassed if I’m wrong here.


So now we get to EoD, and Rogan announces that he’s present in the thread:

Short announcement:

I am here now and still willing to change. Sorry for being late in the day. Went to bed late, got up even later...

Then he clearly doesn’t want to vote Flat despite what he said about voting Snow earlier and calling Flat’s behaviour bad (which I interpret as wolfy):

I can understand what you mean now, but I think this is realy a huge strech... It feels like you were trying to throw mudd at Snow. She gave a smal read in direct response to a post with some content. That's just typical Snow.

Since you now call Snow Town, you either town who was throwing these hardly justified accusions her way in order to check the reactions, or you are scum trying to look like you are. My money is on the later...

I'm on the fence.
flats vote with no explanation was ok-ish when he made it, since he telegraphed coming back to give reasonings when he has more time. This didn't happen by now, which is bad.

On the other hand, I don't like getting pressured by Taffi to vote there.

I said I wouldn't fight hard for you, but now it's only one smal change of vote... Argh...

And eventually has to be bribed into it with the option of :

Hi Rogan. I'm afraid your Taffimai case will have to wait. We have a tie between me and flat and ten minutes until EOD.

If I survive I promise I'll consider your case and ISO Taffimai and figure out if she's a wolf.

In day phase, since lack of night chat.

Okay, that's a sell for me.
flat_footed

I hope I can find my old post in time to strike it out.
BLADES, PLEASE BE PATIENT!

He really, really wants me gone at the end of the day. But then when today starts, there’s a huge tonal shift. He goes from angrily demanding an explanation for my scum lean yesterday:

Your arguments for me are totaly bull**** again. I'd rather have my vote somewhere it matters than being the single vote on someone, even if I think this someone is a wolf. I will still raise my voice against this certain someone. Read, YOU!
And during the night or day 2, you should deffinitly pull out some quotes of "Why do you vote, I see your reasons"-

...to dropping the matter entirely and only a pre-emptive “oh she’s just tunnelling” in case I decide to push him:

<snip>

I still think Taffis Day 1 was an ugly one. However, I don't see her being that agressive at pushing a lynch on her partner, so this should clear her till F3.

<snip>

<snip>

I don't remember anybody else beeing active. So from my side, only two persons really profit from the timing part. Thats Taffi and Xum. I don't profit that much, since Snow is not alive to shout at Taffi to stop tunneling me.

<snip>

This isn’t normal for Town!Rogan, he’d still want to know what my (inaccurate) wolfread is based on. This is clearly Wolf!Rogan who has talked it over in wolfchat and come to the conclusion that this is the better tactic.


On to today. He’s pushing the narrative that the wolves were inactive EoD (because it clears him), and is very insistent about how we should all claim (in)active even though his own calculations prove that this information is useless for town:

Hello everyone.
First things first:
Claim: Inactive! Please claim if you were activated or not. Thank you.<snip>

I would have apprechiated if this had not been posted just yet. By spelling out that scum might fake a claim, you might have warned them not to do this.

But since you did say it, let's spell all the options* out:
*assuming honest and active town

0 Kills, 2 Claims. They are locked town. One of them prevented a kill, so they either can clear someone else (night kill target) or can hand us a wolf (roleblocking the kill).
0 Kills, 3+ claims. There is scum fake claiming, greatly reducing the number of possible targets. In combination with the things above, they are pretty much throwing the game.

1 Kill, 1 Claim, no Vig shot. Locked Town. Scum killed one of the townies they were activating.
1 Kill, 2 Claims, no Vig shot. Either 2 Town, with the Scum kill not being on the same target as the activated townie, or one town, one scum, with the real activated townie being dead.
1 Kill, 1 Claim, Vig shot. The vig killed a townie who managed to stop a wolf kill. Realy bad luck. Still locked town.

2 Kills, 0 Claims. Both active Town got killed off.
2 Kills, 1 Claim, Vig NKed. The claim might be true, it might be a lie if the vig hit the second activated target.
2 Kills, 1 Claim, Vig Alive. Vig is locked town and the only one to claim.
2 Kills, 2 Claims, Vig Nked. One or both claims are false.
2 Kills, 2 Claim, Vig Alive. The Vig is loked town and one of the claims. The other one can be scum, if the other activated townie died.


Since it's likely the vig will get activated every night (extra kills are great for wolves), we should be looking at the last options most. Everybody, feel free to correct any mistakes I might have done.
And those of you who didn't claim active / inactive, please do so or give me a very compelling reason to avoid giving town this information. Scum already has it.

Since I'm not sure if I did understand you correctly:
You were told you had been active this night and grabbed Snows gun?
Why Snow? I totally get Books (and Xihirlis) target choice, but using an unknown power on someone who was very involved in catching a wolf day 1 is a strange move.

Also, Xihirli, did you target Bat and your power failed to activate or do you claim to have used a power on Bat?

And @everyone who hasn't done so before, could you please state "I got a message saying I was active at night" or something similar?*

According to the setup, the wolves pick the town players that will get active. You will be Informed if you had been active.
There is no reason not to claim this part. Don't tell me your target**, don't tell me your power**, don't tell me if you got feedback beyond 'You were active, here is what you did'**. Just tell me "active" or "not active". If you refuse this, you better have a very good reason or you are only helping the wolf. Cowboy. Whatever.

*ONLY IF THIS REALLY HAPPENED AND NOT AS A JOKE!
** unless it's important cause you caught a wolf or can clear a townie.

Town has no way to know whether, if there are two claims, the wolves activated two townies outside their kill or they activated their night kill, one townie and are adding a fake claim.

And that’s the whole purpose of this plan: to be able to sneak in a fake claim one of the following days as soon as they have seen enough real ones to come up with something plausible. NOT claiming (in)active spoils their plan because they’ll never be able to fake mech clear someone.

Even if you don’t believe me that Rogan is an obvious wolf, do not go along with this plan because town gains nothing from it and it enables the wolves to fake claim.


I have stood back today hoping to find out who his partner might be, and I've limited it to Gac or Xumtiil. Not saying Elenna, Xihirli or AV aren't plausible just a lot less imo. I'll see if I can explain before EoD in case I die.

- - - Updated - - -

Forgot to add:

Only trust mech clears that come from Bladescape, like Wombat's.

- - - Updated - - -

A vote count:


Rogan (1): Taffimai
Gac (4): Elenna, Rogan, Xihirli, Xumtiil,
AV (2): Gac, AV

[Elenna]

@Taff: Rogan’s wolfiness or otherwise aside (I don’t have time for a long post on that right now, but I’m not as convinced as you are, but also if someone bussed flat I think it’s either him or Xi) I don’t think saying yes or no to the question “were you activated” gives wolves any info they don’t already have. If they want to lie and say yes, they can easily do so without seeing other people claim first.

I do agree that the active/inactive information is not terribly useful at the moment, but I don’t see any harm in providing it. Maybe it’ll become useful in the future.

Agreed on not town clearing people for saying they were activated though.

Also, you seem pretty sure there are three wolves? Any comment on the narration suggesting there were two to start with?