Candy-Coated Werewolf

[bladescape]

Okay, I haven't caught up since I ran my car into a ditch yesterday (me and the car are fine now, no big deal) but I can't help thinking about some quotes that I'm going to paraphrase and not look up.

Essentially they were quotes from AV claiming that if they were alive day 3 and one from blade saying that if they and AV were alive day 3, then one was a wolf.

Now this is meta I'm aware of which means any experienced player also is. But it also exists for a reason. And visor doesn't make a ton of sense for a night kill I'm my head yet.

Any thoughts on this? Or on why Visor was chosen specifically? More thoughts to come from me later.

Yes. Hence my earlier post.

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Please use bold as well.

Blades, could you clarify one thing about your 100% read:
It was directed at a specific player, right?
Otherwise, sure. It's technically true there had been too many players on the list to all be non town, but it's a very unhelpful thing.

I hope I'll be able to post some more later, but I can't promise, RL and some technical problems might keep me up.

It was at a specific player yes.

[Cazero]

With regards to timing, I'd like to point out that that's not the first thing I did, it's the first thing I did after Blade explicitly asked me to dig into him. Pretty significant difference, to my mind. And it's also of interest to me that the first person to note it is our current top wolf candidate, who does so in the way that makes me look as bad as possible.

You know what? That's fair. I completely forgot the part when blade asked for it and a wolf read is kinda more useful than a town read.

[Lady Serpentine]

So, first off... Snow, your post seems to have gotten doubled twice over? Not sure what's up with that.

I didn't particularly consider Blade to be the driver of that wagon, on the grounds that 90% of what Blade has said has been so vague as to be meaningless with the exception of a few bits and pieces where he's actually made some sort of definitive statement, which is what I focused on.

Given that you're saying otherwise, however, this might be an unfair impression, so I guess I should read the thread over again. Between The Thing, salt over people's expectations of who would and would not get The Thing, and a close lynch on top of that, I'm certainly willing to concede that I might have missed something.

I also would like to strongly disagree that that's more likely to be a baner variant than a voider variant but I'm pretty sure you're not actually necessarily wrong about that, since you've played more than me recently. My experience with those kinds of powers is the opposite, but if people who are more familiar with the current meta think it's not going to be a voider thing, then... I guess that's probably true.

Wolves having a baner would generally be pretty weird, in that case. Admittedly, historically part of why wolves having a baner would be super weird is that there's nothing for a traditional night-baner to do on the wolf team when the wolves have all the kills, and I think we're all on the same page that the wolves just straight up having two kills is unlikely? But I still wouldn't expect it.

(The other wolf!baner option of day-baning wolves, of course, tend to be a balance nightmare, frequently pretty unfun even when balanced, and are a totally different variant that's irrrelevant regardless.)

To respond to your thoughts on my response... First, if this reads as more normal to other people, fair enough; I'm not the arbiter of anyone else's reads and it's been some time since I played with Blade. I did address that this felt more like wolf play than town play for non-mechanical reasons to me too, but I acknowledge that I didn't explicitly go into non-mechanical town reasons for it, and that part of the argument was based more on a general feel.

That being said, you're rather cherrypicking when you accuse me of doing the same, in a way that misrepresents what I said. I pointed out that the originator of a specific claim was the currently lead for wolf candidates - which was not the sum of my argument against that claim, because it was also framed in a misleading way, which I explicitly called out.

Now, is the fact that someone suspicious is making an argument in itself a reason to completely dismiss that argument? Of course not. But when they're the source of that argument and it seems to materially misrepresent the situation, I think it's a perfectly good reason to suggest that the less suspicious people who are agreeing with them look at it more closely and see if they still believe it to be sound.

As far as my vote seeming suspicious... What? I honestly have no idea what you're talking about here; the logic just makes no sense to me.

Yes, I have a suspicion about Bladescape, and I'm sticking with it for now. And clearly that suspicion is a pretty contentious one, considering the fact that there is some vehement disagreement from multiple people, you included. That much we agree on.

It's everything after that where you're losing me. Whether you read it the way 3SecondCultist is doing, where the disagreement starts to look like it might be the wolf team closing ranks, or just as "Lots of people don't share that opinion", it's pretty obvious that a wagon on Blade is not going to take off right now. Given that a number of those people believe Blade to be town strongly enough that it's gone straight to the point of trying to get a wagon going on me, even if I did get one started on him, they'd probably all just switch to Cazero instead if it started to get close.

Since there is also someone else who is widely agreed by many people, including me, to be highly suspicious, why would I throw a vote on Bladescape at this point? As a townie, I know the other person who's gotten any votes - that is, me - is a bad pick, so I want to avoid that happening if I can (at least until it gets to the point that me staying alive is generating so much suspicion it's actively bad for town regardless of how I flip), and as I just explained, I have good reason to believe that trying to actually get rid of Bladescape is going to be pointless right now.

You also seem to be suspicious of me saying that the situation with Cazero "needs to be resolved", in particular, but... Again, why? Flipping Cazero means we're not going to rehash the same arguments for killing him again tomorrow and get nothing done. That statement seems both true and totally inoccuous to me.

[bladescape]

Persolus

I actually think outside my kneejerk reaction this might make Ti town.

I don't like it because I feel like the read is wrong but also I kinda like the rebuffs/thoughts.

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I actually think Snow might be wolf too but need to check something before I commit to that.

[Rogan]

Yes. Hence my earlier post.

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It was at a specific player yes.

Okay, thanks. I'll probably still don't play the game of "guess Blades read" unless I have to, because your reads are cryptic at best and even if I would see something which feels townie, I would run around in circles if this is the same thing you noticed.
This also means: please don't force me to take a guess like this. Clarify this when it gets relevant and think about including it in a legacy post for the night if it doesn't get relevant by then.

[bladescape]

Okay, thanks. I'll probably still don't play the game of "guess Blades read" unless I have to, because your reads are cryptic at best and even if I would see something which feels townie, I would run around in circles if this is the same thing you noticed.
This also means: please don't force me to take a guess like this. Clarify this when it gets relevant and think about including it in a legacy post for the night if it doesn't get relevant by then.

Nah I'm not asking anyone to guess this.

The only reason I said it was to try and fish for people thinking about it.

[AvatarVecna]

We're either 8-3 or 7-1-3 right now. Presuming a mislynch and two NKs on town (worst case scenario), tomorrow I'd either 5-3 or 4-1-3. Maybe we get lucky and find a wolf, or there's only one NK in the night, but current assumption is that tomorrow's LYLO. Maybe today's actually a decent day to claim, to prevent info loss. Mass legacies would also solve this, but I'm not sure if that should be expected or not...

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I'll look over the snow case when my brain turns on.

[gac3]

Okay... I am still in early stages of actually examining Xumtil's wagon... So far I've literally just been looking at the end of day vote counts and not following the actual progression.

My thoughts in no particular order.

I'm definitely assuming 4 wolves. And as there is math involved, it is important to note that the math won't hold up on other numbers of wolves most likely.

Wagons were 6-3-3-a bunch of ones.

If any wolves were voting Xumtill then moving might have swayed the wagon but also tipped their hand. Despite this, there is plenty of reason to give some town points to some of the voters.

If no wolves were voting Xumtiil, and neither Rogan or AV are wolves, Xumtil's could have been saved theoretically but likely would have tipped their hand also.

If we look at people who didn't vote Xum, we have Gac, AV, cultist, Rogan, Persolus, Flat/Serpentine. I personally still push town Rogan and that leaves four people. Almost definitely not all are wolves.

As I type all of this, I come to a realization... If flat was a wolf but wasn't really around, then the above comments about saving Xumtil are invalid as there would only be 3 functional wolves. So Serpentine is a possible lynch for that...

AV's defense of being a counter wagon to a wolf doesn't hold up in light of present knowledge that their wagon was 100% town (at least at the end of the day). I'm trying not to tunnel but I'm still really really suspicious of AV. For reasons other than the thing. If a push for them is made I will join but in the interest of making sure the thing doesn't sway me subconsciously, I will not start the push on them. It is worth noting though that with Ms. McGinty being the only possible wolf led wagon at the end of day and my insistence to personally clear Rogan, AV looks sketchier in that light.

Does anyone know if votes are listed in order?

Assuming the answer is yes then the most likely wolves to be on that wagon for one reason or another would be Snow, Hallow Katt, and Cazero. So I'll put my vote there while I continue to think.

[AvatarVecna]

Does anyone know if votes are listed in order?

I put together a vote-tracking post near EoN1 on the D1 wagons, which includes post numbers so you can double-check me. I also have a version with pretty colors, although it doesn't include the D2/N2 flips cuz I don't wanna edit really old posts.

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HK/blade are not w/w

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Cazero is just town, I think.

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Maybe SK, but not a wolf.

[bladescape]

I put together a vote-tracking post near EoN1 on the D1 wagons, which includes post numbers so you can double-check me. I also have a version with pretty colors, although it doesn't include the D2/N2 flips cuz I don't wanna edit really old posts.

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HK/blade are not w/w

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Cazero is just town, I think.

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Maybe SK, but not a wolf.

I find myself agreeing with this thought tbh.

[AvatarVecna]

Hello! I have returned*, and a lot has happened!
* I only got kicked in the head once, and i barely bled anywhere :)

I will start reading through and posting what I have to say to everything - i feel like there's a word for that, but I can't remember what it is?

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(paraphrased because you can't quote quotes inside quotes)

Well, it appears that RNG's decision from D1 was wrong. Also, the Thing wasn't a lucky guess, so no more need to speculate over it.

So two kills? Since it's a low-power game, that means we either have an SK or a Vig. If it's a SK, then no comment? Both were equally valid targets for an anti-town faction - CH because there was practically no content and therefore it wouldn't further discussion, and BW because he was already a fairly common townlean and having him confirmed wouldn't add anything new.

If it's a Vig, then either they're one of the few town still suspicious of BW, or they checked and found out that CH literally had the lowest post of anyone. Perhaps I was lucky in that I got to hear AV's rants about vigs last game, but even I know that trying to kill someone who wouldn't add anything to the discussion, wolf or not, is a ... suboptimal play. So the Vig is either Flat (from what I remember of votes/lean discussions) or someone new.
(I think it's okay to say this because the meta here was "Vigs tend to be good for wolves," so I'm not painting a target on anyone's back)

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...it appears that I remembered/understood things wrong, then. The Vig is either Flat or any other experienced player, but most likely not someone as new as I am.

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I find it interesting that Cazero claims to give a town read to "solvy" people, including snow, while not switching off of his RNG vote until post 233, well after Snow started being "solvy".

[*trying to avoid references to the Thing*]

If 3SC stated that some of his reasons are simply paranoid, then why not ignore them and focus on the other reasons?

Definitely getting a wolf-lean off of this - not a strong one, but as there aren't many wagons currently going, I'll hop on?

Cazero.

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Haven't got around to the Flat discussions or the mixed feelings around me, but I do have a halloween party to go to, so I will say more later!

Coaching?

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havent played on gitp for a hot minute

but id imagine given its a simple game

some sort of blocking power

some sort of investigation power

maybe some other sort of manipulation power of some kind

Posts That Might Have Gotten Visor Killed

[gac3]

I put together a vote-tracking post near EoN1 on the D1 wagons, which includes post numbers so you can double-check me. I also have a version with pretty colors, although it doesn't include the D2/N2 flips cuz I don't wanna edit really old posts.

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HK/blade are not w/w

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Cazero is just town, I think.

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Maybe SK, but not a wolf.

Fascinating. I will give this a closer look probably after I sleep

[AvatarVecna]

If caz is scumteam, HK might be paired with them.

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Spoiler: D1 Vote Movement

Show

Post 2
Murska (1): flat_footed

Post 3
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat

Post 4
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil

Post 5
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze

Post 6
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Cazero

Post 8
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 9
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna

Post 11
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, hollowkatt

Post 13
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, hollowkatt
Cuthalion (1): Persolus

Post 14
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, hollowkatt
Cuthalion (1): Persolus

Post 18
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus

Post 19
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Rogan (1): 3SecondCultist

Post 24
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Rogan (1): 3SecondCultist
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor

Post 27
Murska (1): flat_footed
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, Murska
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Rogan (1): 3SecondCultist
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor

Post 29
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, Murska
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor

Post 33
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, Murska
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
"all" (1): Mrs. McGinty
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion

Post 34
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Rogan
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, Murska
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"all except ff, Murska, hk" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 52
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, Murska
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"all except ff, Murska, hk" (1): Mrs. McGinty
"a wolf" (1): Rogan

Post 56
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (1): Xumtiil
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, Murska
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 61
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 63
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
Mrs. McGinty (1): Visor
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 64
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Cazero (1): Visor

Post 69
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
Cazero (1): Visor
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus, gac" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 73
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
Cazero (1): Visor
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 85
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
Cazero (1): Visor
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (1): AvatarVecna

Post 87
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Murska
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
Cazero (1): Visor
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (1): AvatarVecna
hollowkatt (1): bladescape

Post 94
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (1): AvatarVecna
hollowkatt (1): bladescape

Post 95
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Book Wombat
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (1): AvatarVecna
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (1): gac3

Post 98
Murska (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (1): AvatarVecna
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (2): gac3, Book Wombat

Post 101
Murska (1): flat_footed
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (1): AvatarVecna
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (2): gac3, Book Wombat
gac3 (1): 3SecondCultist

Post 148
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (2): AvatarVecna, flat_footed
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (2): gac3, Book Wombat
gac3 (1): 3SecondCultist

Post 155
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (3): AvatarVecna, flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (2): gac3, Book Wombat

Post 162
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"a wolf" (1): Rogan
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (2): gac3, Book Wombat
Mrs. McGinty (1): AvatarVecna

Post 164
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (2): Snowblaze, hollowkatt
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
hollowkatt (1): bladescape
AvatarVecna (3): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan
Mrs. McGinty (1): AvatarVecna

Post 182
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus" (1): Mrs. McGinty
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (3): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan
Mrs. McGinty (1): AvatarVecna

Post 207
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (3): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (3): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan
Mrs. McGinty (1): AvatarVecna
"all except ff, Murska, hk, Rogan, sb, Persolus, gac, AV, 3SC" (1): Mrs. McGinty

Post 218
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (4): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (3): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan
Mrs. McGinty (1): AvatarVecna

Post 219
flat_footed (3): Xumtiil, Murska, Visor
Xumtiil (4): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (4): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan, AvatarVecna

Post 221
flat_footed (2): Xumtiil, Visor
Xumtiil (4): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (5): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska

Post 222
flat_footed (1): Visor
Xumtiil (4): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (5): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Mrs. McGinty (1): Xumtiil

Post 223
Xumtiil (5): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty, Visor
Snowblaze (1): Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (5): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Mrs. McGinty (1): Xumtiil

Post 233
Xumtiil (6): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty, Visor, Cazero
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (2): flat_footed, 3SecondCultist
AvatarVecna (5): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Mrs. McGinty (1): Xumtiil

Post 237
Xumtiil (7): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty, Visor, Cazero, 3SecondCultist
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
AvatarVecna (5): gac3, Book Wombat, Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Mrs. McGinty (1): Xumtiil

Post 249
Xumtiil (7): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty, Visor, Cazero, 3SecondCultist
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
AvatarVecna (4): gac3, Book Wombat, AvatarVecna, Murska
Mrs. McGinty (2): Xumtiil, Rogan

Post 252
Xumtiil (7): Snowblaze, hollowkatt, bladescape, Mrs. McGinty, Visor, Cazero, 3SecondCultist
Cuthalion (1): Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): Cuthalion
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
AvatarVecna (3): gac3, Book Wombat, Murska
Mrs. McGinty (3): Xumtiil, Rogan, AvatarVecna

Spoiler: D2 Vote Movement

Show

Post 285
Snowblaze (1): Visor

Post 312
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (1): Rogan

Post 313
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, AvatarVecna

Post 315
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, AvatarVecna
Cazero (1): 3SecondCultist

Post 318
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, AvatarVecna
Cazero (1): 3SecondCultist
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt

Post 319
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (1): 3SecondCultist
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt

Post 323
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (1): 3SecondCultist
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt
Murska (1): Mrs McGinty

Post 325
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (2): 3SecondCultist, Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt
Murska (1): Mrs McGinty

Post 327
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (2): 3SecondCultist, Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt
Murska (1): Mrs McGinty
Persolus (1): bladescape

Post 343
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (2): 3SecondCultist, Persolus
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt
Murska (1): Mrs McGinty
Persolus (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

Post 373
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (3): 3SecondCultist, Persolus, gac3
3SecondCultist (1): hollowkatt
Murska (1): Mrs McGinty
Persolus (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

Post 377
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (3): Rogan, AvatarVecna, Murska
Cazero (3): 3SecondCultist, Persolus, gac3
3SecondCultist (2): hollowkatt, Cazero
Murska (1): Mrs McGinty
Persolus (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

Post 380
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, Murska
Cazero (3): 3SecondCultist, Persolus, gac3
3SecondCultist (2): hollowkatt, Cazero
Murska (2): Mrs McGinty, AvatarVecna
Persolus (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

Post 382
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, Murska
Cazero (3): 3SecondCultist, Persolus, gac3
3SecondCultist (1): Cazero
Murska (3): Mrs McGinty, AvatarVecna, hollowkatt
Persolus (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

Post 406
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, Murska
Cazero (3): 3SecondCultist, Persolus, gac3
Murska (3): Mrs McGinty, AvatarVecna, hollowkatt
Persolus (3): bladescape, Snowblaze, Cazero

Post 422
Snowblaze (1): Visor
flat_footed (2): Rogan, Murska
Cazero (3): 3SecondCultist, Persolus, gac3
Murska (4): Mrs McGinty, AvatarVecna, hollowkatt, Cazero
Persolus (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

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@ Persolus/McGinty/Lady Ti

Please list your top three town, top three scum, and anybody you think is unpaired from each other. Not necessarily unpaired with Xumtiil, but things like "there's no way AV and Snow are both on scumteam", things like that. Explanations for these things are also appreciated.

[Snowblaze]

Stressed and sleep-deprived, so don't really feel like producing wallposts. I have, however, had a realisation: Mrs McGinty is a wolf.

Case to come once people have had a chance to react and I've had a chance to check I'm not going mad.

[AvatarVecna]

Mmg has good position on D1 wagon and could probably have gotten away with voting off the main wagons but didn't. I'm townreading mmg for the moment.

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Possible that hk is covering for her tho unlikely

[Taffimai]

Current Votecount

Cazero 3: Cazero, Serpentine, Gac
Persolus 2: Rogan, Bladescape
Snowblaze 2: Cultist, Hollowkatt
McGinty 1: Snow

Not voting: AV, McGinty, Persolus

There are 24 hours left in Day 3.
Somebody post please so my Halloween Event Results don't merge into this.

[AvatarVecna]

There are 24 hours left in Day 3.
Somebody post please so my Halloween Event Results don't merge into this.

No problem, Taffimai.

[Taffimai]

Halloween Event Results

Winners! We have lots of them!

First off, in the gold category with four votes, an entry that stood out for its creative wit, costume 9:

Spoiler: Congratulations!

Show

A massive Motorcycle Visor with an advertisement on it.
(An Ad-Visor)

Next up, our red winner with five votes, undoubtedly inspired by a taste for blood, costume 5:

Spoiler: Congratulations!

Show

A Vampiress

Black dress, midway between knee- and ankle-length, slightly old-fashioned. Short sleeves with lace at the ends. Stockings (black) and smart shoes (also black, without heels).

A cape (also black) that stretches down to my waist, with enough loose material to wrap around myself should I choose to do so, which stretches out behind me when I walk. Fastened with a gold clasp in the shape of a vampire bat.

Fangs, naturally, but subtle ones so you don't notice them at first and then you take a second glance and see them and the way I'm smiling as if wondering how tasty your blood would be.

And if I'm allowed to go beyond "it would be a pain to find the just right things to make this outfit" and into "completely unrealistic", I'll give myself straight bright-white hair, just over shoulder-length.

In the blue category, a lovely three-way tie between the more mysterious and otherworldly costumes 6, 8 and 16 at three votes each:

Spoiler: Congratulations!

Show

A Mad Scientist that experiments on themselves so ends up looking pretty horrifying. Too many eyes, mouths and other body parts. All under the lab coat, hidden from plain sight.

An Anthropomorphic Coronation Chicken Sandwich with Alien Antennae and a Witch's Hat.

From a distance, period noblewoman with a fancy black dress, a feathered cloak, and a raven-themed masquerade mask. Up close, the red eyes and unusually pale skin lean it towards vampire instead, with fangs that are pretty subtle, but also just a bit concerningly realistic if you look closely enough to tell.

And last but not least, our overall winner with two golden, four red and also three blue votes, the scariest outfit of them all: Xihirli!

Spoiler: Congratulations!

Show

You know what? My Halloween costume is Xihirli
Gothic Xihirli.

Good luck checking behind you for the rest of your life.

Best of all: only two people voted for themselves (the rascals)!

[AvatarVecna]

Best of all: only two people voted for themselves (the rascals)!

Guaranteed one scum in here.

[hollowkatt]

snowblaze, what do you make of the visor kill?

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lady serpent

this needs more votes

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Guaranteed one scum in here.

all I know is I was hard robbed

[Snowblaze]

snowblaze, what do you make of the visor kill?

Talked about it a bit earlier, I think it's an attempt to frame me but not just that because framing someone alone isn't a good reason to kill someone, so I think there's at least one wolf who thought Visor's continued existence was a threat to theirs.

iirc someone mentioned that this could be MMG given the dynamic between them and Visor, I agree with whoever that was and it's one of the factors contributing to my current vote. (I should probably actually check who it was, though.)

Speaking of MMG, can I get your thoughts on them please?

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Oh, that was you, lol. Makes sense.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I was badly wrong on my guesses on the Halloween costumes, I thought Xihirli was AV and Cultist was the anthropomorphic sandwich. Appreciate the votes, people! And Ti gets an Arbitrary Meaningless Point for sharing my taste in Halloween costumes.

[AvatarVecna]

If we're looking at reasons Visor was killed, it might just be activity level? 24 hours ago, Visor was second-highest poster behind me.

[Cazero]

Strange take on that motive, not even going for number one. Unless AV is wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

Strange take on that motive, not even going for number one. Unless AV is wolf.

*shrug*

It's how I tend to pick targets when I wolf. I just realized cuz it's been awful quiet today.

[3SecondCultist]

Best of all: only two people voted for themselves (the rascals)!

Welp, I guess I'm a rascal then.

snowblaze, what do you make of the visor kill?

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lady serpent

this needs more votes

Moving away from Snow to vote for Ti... yeah, you just lost whatever townpoints I had considered giving you for voting Snow.

This plays into an observation from today: Ti and Snow are unpaired. Highly unlikely there's a w/w situation there, my money would be on t/w in favour of the latter.

HK/blade are not w/w

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Cazero is just town, I think.

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe SK, but not a wolf.

Can you explain your logic for these claims? Where do you see evidence of unpairing for HK and blade? And looking back at Caz's last few posts I might actually agree with you - the more he posts, the more I read obvious wolf, and despite my earlier wolfread it doesn't seem like he's being coached or really in contact with anyone - but I want to know your reasoning.

I'd love a reason not to point a finger at blade in particular. I think we might be telepathically linked this game.

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Strange take on that motive, not even going for number one. Unless AV is wolf.

I'm 95% certain that AV is not wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

I actually think Snow might be wolf too but need to check something before I commit to that.

Equally blade, I'd love to hear whether or not you landed on an answer here, and if so what basis you have for said answer (even if the answer is '3SC is tinfoiling hard').

[Snowblaze]

3SC, can you not preflip me wolf please?

(Pre-flipping = basing your reads on one player on the assumption that another player will flip a certain alignment when the other player hasn't yet flipped, which is what your thoughts on hollowkatt are in that post.)

Anyway, I should probably just give my MMG case.

Point One: someone probably bussed Xumtiil. And going down the list... I'm town. I don't think bladescape or hollowkatt are wolves (shut up, tinfoil voice, bladescape being alive on day three despite having killed a wolf is not in isolation a valid reason to suspect him).

Visor is dead and town. I don't think 3SC is a wolf, I believe he believes his cases. Cazero... I hate the idea of clearing him, but I can't fit his play to any kind of wolf agenda that involves self-preservation. That leaves one: Mrs McGinty.

Which led me to actually pay attention to them, and realise that wolf!MMG would explain several things that don't otherwise make sense...

insert dramatic pause while I fish out quotes

- - - Updated - - -

Point Two: this

Hey AV - McGinty blinked. Also, glass or plastic, glass or plastic? (Will explain later, if I'm still alive)

AV and I both spent a while struggling to parse why Xumtiil did this when AV was his counterwagon. It was unlikely that Xumtiil thought this would gain sufficient momentum to overtake his own wagon given AV was the only one who'd stated suspicion of them as of that point. So it's a move that seems to go against self-preservation.

Then you consider wolf!MMG, and the explanation is simple: distancing. Xumtiil knew he was screwed and was trying to make sure his partner got towncred so wolves could salvage something from the mess. It fits.

- - - Updated - - -

Point Three is the Visor kill, which I already talked about.

Point Four is the below:

raises hand
We have two games together from two years ago when I was pretty new. I remember they were a pretty chaotic player who did a very good job of provoking activity and discussion but not such a good job of finding wolves. (No offence, limited sample size.)

Their play so far fits pretty much with my vague expectations.

Their play no longer fits with my vague expectations of town!them. D1 you could argue they were provoking discussion with their gimmick but they never really did anything with it and have been pretty under the radar ever since. I believe there's a quote from town!MMG from my past games that illustrates that point, if I can find it.

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Not precisely what I remembered, but it's still a decent point:

But one of the reasons I'm so hard to catch is that I never, ever post like this when I'm a wolf. A good rule of thumb is that if you can't see any reasons to suspect me on d1 (other than relative inactivity - the easiest way to avoid giving other reasons), that's when you should put me at the top of your suspect list.

("This" being, let's say, considerably more chaotic than anything they've done this game.)

So, thoughts, please! Am I onto something, or have I connected dots that really shouldn't be connected?

[AvatarVecna]

Harem Comedy "Busted!" Season One is now recruiting.

[Rogan]

Best of all: only two people voted for themselves (the rascals)!

Claim: I didn't vote for myself!
But a self vote makes me lean AV

Congratulations for the winners.
I even was right about Snows costume (although I gave her the 'wrong' wrapper).

Now, the first person to tell me my costume gets an guaranteed honest answer (although I would prefer if you didn't ask me if I'm town. It's just boring...).
(Taffi, I'm sorry but you don't count. Dead chat, I would include you, but I don't think I'll get your answers.)

---

Snow, while I don't have much on MMG, it's a slight town lean. Her vote on Xum plays a role and I think there was a post which gave me some townie feelings (although it could be a trick), but I don't have the quote ready and I don't think it's important enough to give this priority.

- - - Updated - - -

I didn't get to read your case before posting.
(But I don't think this is bad, I just wanted to mention it)

[Persolus]

Coaching?

Being coached, karate.

Furthermore, what if there was another play, a bolder play? Here is where I get more tinfoil-y, but bear with me. I am also looking hard at bladescape and HK... because they are possible wolves with Snow, who have engaged in a successful triple bus to sneak by town.

I would like to note that this is my Hot Take from earlier, except actually analysed and developed.

@ Persolus/McGinty/Lady Ti

Please list your top three town, top three scum, and anybody you think is unpaired from each other. Not necessarily unpaired with Xumtiil, but things like "there's no way AV and Snow are both on scumteam", things like that. Explanations for these things are also appreciated.

Alright, here we go:

Town:
Rogan

• Cleared by the Thing, which hopefully is the last I need to worry about it.

Cazero

• Okay, not completely certain. However, as Rogan I believe pointed out, AV suggested that the Vig shoot him.
• Town!Cazero might have made a mistake at EoD2, or Wolf!Cazero might have done the smarter move. Either way, when I tried to defend the choice, Cazero himself went out of his way to explain precisely why the move was not justifiable (i.e. stating he was either an idiot or a wolf).
• Cazero didn't wait for someone else to remember that he was a good lynch target, even though AV (and potentially others) were starting to Town-lean him.

OK, now for something you didn't ask for:

Why I think we have an SK and not a Vig.

• Note: the following is what I think is most likely: I didn't want to type "probably" after every action
• We have either a Vig or an SK (as multi-kill Wolves are most definitely not a "common PR" as promised by Taffi)
• We had two deaths on N1 (BW and Cuthalion), and one death on N2 (Visor)
• At the time, Visor was the second-highest poster and was Town. Since AV was the highest poster, and was largely considered Town, the Wolves assumed AV would be the most likely Bane target and went after #2. Cazero was a horrible choice as everyone agreed that his flip would be useful.
• There was no real reason for a Vig to try and shoot Visor - as mentioned, second-highest poster, and didn't have anything close to a wagon on them, especially since Cazero was agreed on as the best possible Vig target. The same applies for a SK, as the more things clear up, the less space they'd have to hide.
• Cazero didn't die.
• Assuming a Vig: someone managed to void the Vig, someone deliberately baned Cazero, or the Vig decided not to shoot.
• Town wouldn't bane Cazero, given the explicit instructions from everyone with even a hint of a town-lean to shoot him.
• Voiding the Vig is possible? Can't say how likely this is unless someone speaks up.
• Given the instructions from AV, an experienced Vig would shoot. However, there are a lot of new players in this game. After one unsuccessful kill, maybe they would back off? Again, though, explicit instructions to shoot him.
• Therefore, it is unlikely that we have a Vig.
• On the other hand, a Serial Killer would have no qualms with ignoring the advice and going after someone else.

Now, that isn't necessarily the best case, but let's think about who it could be:
Who was the one person to keep a vote on BW?
Flat_footed.
BW was, as I already mentioned, a decent SK choice - since we all pretty much had cleared him, the flip doesn't add any info to the game.

Why was Taffi willing to replace Flat_Footed after one missed day of voting? Because his absence was messing with the balance of the game.

Lady Serpentine, before D3, based her reasonings off of the existence of a Vigilante, specifically.
After D3, she made a post which argued for the existence of a non-Vig kill power, but did not mention that this could be an SK. This is honestly the sort of thing I would do if I were an SK: she's not linking the title with herself, but by arguing for it in vague terms, she is less likely to be suspected.

Why no second N2 kill? Because either a) LS hadn't been able to figure out the best kill (possible, especially given the "will collapse from exhaustion" part of the N2 posts), or b) LS targeted someone other than Visor or Cazero and got baned/voided.

Interesting to note: Serpentine made a big deal about Bladescape potentially being a "Beast," and therefore a bad target for a non-Wolf kill role.

If anyone is willing to come forth with a bane claim, this could help me decide on this position. However, until that point, I'm going to reserve my vote for a Wolf.

Wolf list coming soon.

[hollowkatt]

Welp, I guess I'm a rascal then.



Moving away from Snow to vote for Ti... yeah, you just lost whatever townpoints I had considered giving you for voting Snow.

This plays into an observation from today: Ti and Snow are unpaired. Highly unlikely there's a w/w situation there, my money would be on t/w in favour of the latter.



Can you explain your logic for these claims? Where do you see evidence of unpairing for HK and blade? And looking back at Caz's last few posts I might actually agree with you - the more he posts, the more I read obvious wolf, and despite my earlier wolfread it doesn't seem like he's being coached or really in contact with anyone - but I want to know your reasoning.

I'd love a reason not to point a finger at blade in particular. I think we might be telepathically linked this game.

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I'm 95% certain that AV is not wolf.

- - - Updated - - -



Equally blade, I'd love to hear whether or not you landed on an answer here, and if so what basis you have for said answer (even if the answer is '3SC is tinfoiling hard').

good thing I don't care at all about your townpoints (mostly b/c I think you could also be a wolf but partially because I just don't care)

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Talked about it a bit earlier, I think it's an attempt to frame me but not just that because framing someone alone isn't a good reason to kill someone, so I think there's at least one wolf who thought Visor's continued existence was a threat to theirs.

iirc someone mentioned that this could be MMG given the dynamic between them and Visor, I agree with whoever that was and it's one of the factors contributing to my current vote. (I should probably actually check who it was, though.)

Speaking of MMG, can I get your thoughts on them please?

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Oh, that was you, lol. Makes sense.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I was badly wrong on my guesses on the Halloween costumes, I thought Xihirli was AV and Cultist was the anthropomorphic sandwich. Appreciate the votes, people! And Ti gets an Arbitrary Meaningless Point for sharing my taste in Halloween costumes.

Why would the wolf team be interested in framing you?