Yu-Gi-Oh! ZeXal!

[Illven]

Well I disagree with Vecna on "What if Marion isn't a voider." Cause they strike me as VERY similar to a voider. I agree with them on why target Blade and let them know Marion is in the game.

The difference between a blade scry, and anyone elses scry is not so much greater as to tell them "Hey the beast/voider is in game."

My reads.

I trust Vecna enough now to note. My most tragic memory is related to my role.


As for wolf reads.

Let's see. I suppose Persolus could be overcompensating for my "Over eagerness is a wolf sign from them." But I don't think that's true.

Ti. She's just been low posting in a bunch of games recently. I hope everything's okay.

Allando Is a likely wolf, same reason as Caedorous.

I'd need to re-read the other three wolves that snowblaze thinks is likely.

Allando

[AvatarVecna]

I trust Vecna enough now to note. My most tragic memory is related to my role.

Oohhhh okay. I'm willing to reciprocate. Praise be to Aidia.

EDIT: Don't think too deep on it. Just about names is all.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I think 3 wolves would be very weird if one of them is Nash. Cultists always throw off the balance, although admittedly Nash is weaker than standard cultist so maybe that balances things out.

To be clear I do think that you've made a good argument for blade possibly lying - I just don't necessarily agree with your logic around the Marin actions. Them not using their power comes at the cost of being otherwise perfectly passive, I just don't think it's as clear-cut as you are making it out to be. I am not sold on Blade being town and your arguments helped with that.

However I do disagree with the bit of quoted logic above - Cultists throw off balance, but also the wolves (seemingly) have no night kill, so I could see a 3-wolf world here.

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Also, since wolves can coordinate - the amount of uncontested suspicion onto Allando almost makes me think he is not a wolf. Same reason I did not switch to Caedorus T1.

[AvatarVecna]

To be clear I do think that you've made a good argument for blade possibly lying - I just don't necessarily agree with your logic around the Marin actions. Them not using their power comes at the cost of being otherwise perfectly passive, I just don't think it's as clear-cut as you are making it out to be. I am not sold on Blade being town and your arguments helped with that.

However I do disagree with the bit of quoted logic above - Cultists throw off balance, but also the wolves (seemingly) have no night kill, so I could see a 3-wolf world here.

Default cult game has no kill either, just the conversion. A game where cult's only power is converting people almost always ends up having a balance issue where 1 starting cultist is too few (game could end immediately), but 2 starting cultists can easily be too many (quickly spirals beyond town's ability to recover). The lack of a kill isn't the weirdness here, it's that the cult is only stealing votes, rather than votes and powers.

[Batcathat]

Also, since wolves can coordinate - the amount of uncontested suspicion onto Allando almost makes me think he is not a wolf. Same reason I did not switch to Caedorus T1.

As I suggested earlier, I think one possibility is flat and Allando both being wolves and having decided that one of them might have to be sacrificed for the other to look better, which would explain the lack of push back (along with it still being quite far from EoD).

[Let'sGetKraken]

As I suggested earlier, I think one possibility is flat and Allando both being wolves and having decided that one of them might have to be sacrificed for the other to look better, which would explain the lack of push back (along with it still being quite far from EoD).

I am okay with this as an option but we really need to stop killing the brothers day 1 & 2

[Illven]

Oohhhh okay. I'm willing to reciprocate. Praise be to Aidia.

EDIT: Don't think too deep on it. Just about names is all.

Well, Hello Priestess~

[Batcathat]

I am okay with this as an option but we really need to stop killing the brothers day 1 & 2

Heh. For what it's worth, I think flat would be a better lynch than Allando (since if flat's a wolf, that makes me even more suspicious of Allando, but I'm not sure the opposite is true).

[bladescape]

Btw I can confirm Mirin is a voider.

[Book Wombat]

Wombat, do you still suspect Caoimhin? Do you have any other reads?

It was a gut feeling, so I don't know.

Anyway, I would have agreed with AV that Marin seems more like a feedback-replacer rather than an actual voider (except in the case it information powers of course), but bladescape says the opposite? Will have to think about it.

[Illven]

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't.

[JeenLeen]

Initial thoughts on AV/bladescape:
I wouldn't put this past a AV/bladescape wolf-pair, but it seems too odd to do it while neither have any heat. Well, I guess that's actually the safest time to protect your scumbuddy... but both of them can be tricksey enough that WIFOM spirals a ton. I have a townread gut on both of them, but don't trust it a ton. AV didn't vote bladescape, so her words don't have a lot of weight.

I think I get AV's point. Here's why (might be rephrasing/summarizing her argument, but I'm trying to put it into my words/thought process):
Most any townie, if targeted by Marin, would share "I got targeted by Marin". The wolves know if Marin is out there and know who Marin targeted. It doesn't hurt town at all to share that info.
The only risk is outting oneself to the wolves as an info-gatherer or not. In that regard, bladescape is an odd choice because he's more likely to sow misinformation alongside telling the town. (I'm reminded of Valmark's game where he softclaimed baner as vanillager and such was incredibly helpful for town.) So, yeah, choosing bladescape was suboptimal as he's less likely to leak extra info while sharing useful info.
But, as bladescape noted, a suboptimal plan does not mean the wolves didn't do it. Just means AV isn't a wolf (or, if you want WIFOM/paranoia, she is a wolf, wolves targeted bladescape, and this entire conversation was preplanned to discredit blade and gain AV towncred. But I'd rather not contemplate that many layers of deception.)

That's if bladescape is town. Now to ponder if he's wolf.
If Marin is not in play, I could see wolf!bladescape making this claim. It gains towncred, sows misinformation, and doesn't hurt the wolves at all.
If Marin is in play... there's still those reasons for wolf!bladescape to make this claim. At first I was thinking it wouldn't be worthwhile to risk wasting a void N1, but, as AV pointed out, the odds of actually hitting an info-gatherer are low. Perhaps it would make sense to wait N1, say you were targeted by Marin, and by D3 when a real townie has been targeted you are basically considered town. Yeah, I can see that play as a tricksey play. And bladescape is tricksey enough to propose it.

All that said, others looks more suspicious. And I don't think the "bladescape is a lying wolf" is very likely. But I'll warrant it's a believable scenario.

Oohhhh okay. I'm willing to reciprocate. Praise be to Aidia.

EDIT: Don't think too deep on it. Just about names is all.

FYI: in a prior game, Illven effectively claimed a role to AV via alluding to a play-by-post game both were in. I assume this is the same thing, and AV now knows what role Illven is claiming.
(Of course, if Vector is in play, doesn't mean Illven isn't a wolf claiming a safe fakeclaim.)

[AvatarVecna]

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't.

Frankly I think blade has already said too much, but I guess they've got a better perspective on that than I do if they're town so I'll trust their judgement.

[Snowblaze]

I'm sure you can imagine how happy I am to spend time and effort typing up a wall answering the question only to be met with two separate people going "I disagree but I'm not gonna bother explaining why".

EDIT: Like wow I sure am glad the possibility blade is a lying wolf trying to manipulate us into chasing ghosts and the possibility that AV is trying to cast shade on blade isn't worth digging into.

Yeah, sorry.

It's just. a) I think both you and bladescape are town independently of (and in your case because of) this thing;

b) I don't think I can write up the kind of super-detailed well-articulated case that would convince you you're wrong (my counter-arguments would be pretty similar to what Kraken said, I believe);

and c) I think my play gets significantly worse if I start getting sucked into long wallposty debates on a specific issue so I'm choosing not to do that.

Heh. For what it's worth, I think flat would be a better lynch than Allando (since if flat's a wolf, that makes me even more suspicious of Allando, but I'm not sure the opposite is true).

...didn't you say earlier that you thought flat was only a wolf with Allando? And therefore wouldn't it make more sense to vote Allando over flat because if the former flips town it would clear the latter?

Will dig into Illven's reads in a second.

[JeenLeen]

Btw I can confirm Mirin is a voider.

So bladescape is claiming an info-gathering role.
Whether he's lying to sow misinfo to wolves at the expense of probably-irrelevant misinfo to town... that's the question. The question he shouldn't answer.

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't.

I don't like this.
While it can look like just poking fun at bladescape for his enigmatic nature, it also looks like a wolf hoping to get him to leak info he shouldn't share.
flat_footed and Allando still look more suspicious to me, though...

Wolfleans: Allando, flat_footed
Kinda suspicious (but not strong): Batcathat*, Illven, Cao*
Kinda towny (but not strong): bladescape, AV, Kraken*
I'll probably have an opinion on Snowblaze once I reread and think through things better.

*This feeling is mostly from D1. I want to reread these two in light of the D1 flip, and also see if I really think they (or anyone else) was trying to shut down AV's discussion of Marin. As none have much/any heat today, might wait until D2, when we have more info, to do solid analysis on them.
Fairly neutral on most everyone else. Some gut feelings, but I don't trust them.

[Batcathat]

...didn't you say earlier that you thought flat was only a wolf with Allando? And therefore wouldn't it make more sense to vote Allando over flat because if the former flips town it would clear the latter?
.

No, but maybe I phrased something weirdly? Anyhow, my reasoning (and feel free to check it for holes) is that if flat’s a wolf, voting Caedorus when he did is a strange move (since he might get heat after Caed flips) unless it’s to save a wolf buddy. So if Allando flips wolf, flat might still just be a townie who made the wrong choice, but if flat flips wolf, Allando seems like a likely buddy.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: Illven suspecting Caedorus

Show

My thought process is that Caedrous is more likely to be a wolf. I remember that I had to control their Cain instinct in Tarot club and thus they may be more inclined to murder Allando without me checking them in.

Well I disagree with Vecna on "What if Marion isn't a voider." Cause they strike me as VERY similar to a voider. I agree with them on why target Blade and let them know Marion is in the game.

The difference between a blade scry, and anyone elses scry is not so much greater as to tell them "Hey the beast/voider is in game."

My reads.

I trust Vecna enough now to note. My most tragic memory is related to my role.


As for wolf reads.

Let's see. I suppose Persolus could be overcompensating for my "Over eagerness is a wolf sign from them." But I don't think that's true.

Ti. She's just been low posting in a bunch of games recently. I hope everything's okay.

Allando Is a likely wolf, same reason as Caedorous.

I'd need to re-read the other three wolves that snowblaze thinks is likely.

Allando

That's not a list of likely wolves, it's a list of "people I don't have reason to townread".

Eh, Persolus being less engaged being towny is a thought I had, but I don't know how much I actually believed in it, I guess.

The Allando thing I don't really get though? Because I checked your reason to suspect Caedorus (trying to get his brother killed; see spoiler) and it seems like you're applying it to Caedorus in particular due to previous experience wolfing with him, and thus it wouldn't generalise to Allando.

Or did you have different reasons for suspecting Caedorus that I missed/you didn't mention?

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No, but maybe I phrased something weirdly? Anyhow, my reasoning (and feel free to check it for holes) is that if flat’s a wolf, voting Caedorus when he did is a strange move (since he might get heat after Caed flips) unless it’s to save a wolf buddy. So if Allando flips wolf, flat might still just be a townie who made the wrong choice, but if flat flips wolf, Allando seems like a likely buddy.

Your first point is basically what I'm saying you said and what you're saying you didn't say, in my interpretation.

"If flat is a wolf, it's a strange move unless it's to save a partner" implies "if flat is a wolf, so is Allando" implies "if Allando is town, so is flat" implies "killing flat before Allando is wasting a mislynch in town!Allando worlds".

But that also might be me projecting my own logic onto you when most people probably don't think about the game the same way I do.

[bladescape]

Frankly I think blade has already said too much, but I guess they've got a better perspective on that than I do if they're town so I'll trust their judgement.

You're right, to be fair.

[Snowblaze]

Wolfleans: Allando, flat_footed
Kinda suspicious (but not strong): Batcathat*, Illven, Cao*
Kinda towny (but not strong): bladescape, AV, Kraken*
I'll probably have an opinion on Snowblaze once I reread and think through things better.

*This feeling is mostly from D1. I want to reread these two in light of the D1 flip, and also see if I really think they (or anyone else) was trying to shut down AV's discussion of Marin. As none have much/any heat today, might wait until D2, when we have more info, to do solid analysis on them.
Fairly neutral on most everyone else. Some gut feelings, but I don't trust them.

It is D2, do you mean D3?

Also I would appreciate it if you did get to those this phase, if you have time. Should help me either gain more confidence in townreads or realise why they could be wrong.

Also also do you think shutting down the discussion of Marin is wolfy? Why/why not?

Also also also I just realised that in worlds where Allando/flat are town we're kind of screwed.

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Mine is pending Illven's response to my question and Persolus and Ti doing stuff.

(Me: "oh, it's fine, I feel decent about my current worldview, I don't need to tinfoil AV/bladescape". Me, half an hour later: "actually wait my worldview might be wrong". Lolme.)

Going to try and get some RL stuff done, back in some indefinite amount of time.

[bladescape]

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Ti or Kraken.

Ti because unusual play.

Kraken because they're standing on the big red square that says "If Allando is town this is where I'd look."

Also they said something earlier that made me feel very iffy if Allando was town.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Ti or Kraken.

Ti because unusual play.

Kraken because they're standing on the big red square that says "If Allando is town this is where I'd look."

Also they said something earlier that made me feel very iffy if Allando was town.

Hm, I don't like this. Not only because it points at me, but because it's very much setting up me as the next lynch if Allando flips town - which a wolf would know would happen. It's not firmly wolfy because it was in response to a question, but it feels hedgy in a way that I dislike.


Originally Posted by Snowblaze
Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Aside from you - I'm still suspicious from D1 behaviour - I'd say Caohimn or JeenLeen. Both had suspiciously substantive posts after suspicion might have turned to them. Illven is also giving me gut pings but that might just be residual from last game

[bladescape]

Hm, I don't like this. Not only because it points at me, but because it's very much setting up me as the next lynch if Allando flips town - which a wolf would know would happen. It's not firmly wolfy because it was in response to a question, but it feels hedgy in a way that I dislike.


Originally Posted by Snowblaze
Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Aside from you - I'm still suspicious from D1 behaviour - I'd say Caohimn or JeenLeen. Both had suspiciously substantive posts after suspicion might have turned to them. Illven is also giving me gut pings but that might just be residual from last game

We can do it in a different order if you'd prefer, Mr Let'sGetKraken?

[Illven]

Eh, my thought is that the siblings are likely similar. (due to similar nature vs nurture.) Plus something I didn't notice day 1. (Cause work is ****ing awful and keeps leaving me by myself to handle a two person job.) is that Caedorus switched their vote, while Allando keep there's on Cae all day.

[JeenLeen]

It is D2, do you mean D3?

Yes.

Also I would appreciate it if you did get to those this phase, if you have time. Should help me either gain more confidence in townreads or realise why they could be wrong.

I'll work on it. I need to do some actual "my job" work, but I should be able to fit this in by this afternoon.

Also also do you think shutting down the discussion of Marin is wolfy? Why/why not?

In short, shutting down conversation looks wolfy, especially if bladescape flips wolf.

When I first read through D2's posts, I felt like AV's discussion of Marin was sidetracking more pertinent stuff. Basically changing the flow of the conversation from analysis/wolfhunting to mechanical discussion. (Note this was me skim-reading walls of text early morning. My reading comprehension wasn't great.)

But then I realized it was building an argument against bladescape, and thus was very pertinent. Or, rather, I suspected that was it so I asked AV explicitly and then she confirmed. And also she called out folk not giving full responses. That part was persuasive to me, even if her overall argument that bladescape claiming Marin is a good wolf ploy is not super convincing. (As I said, I get the idea, and it's believable, but I'm not willing to vote bladescape because he claimed the voider hit him.)

So trying to shut down the talk could be protecting wolf!bladescape and/or casting shade at town!AV. Or WIFOM to make folk think a wolf is protecting bladescape, but y'all know how WIFOM spirals.
When I reread, I'll try to get a sense of if folk (if wolf) really were trying to shut down conversation or were just "wall of text about hypotheticals is hard to parse".

[Allando]

On Allando: apparently I missed this last night so scratch the questions that came with the vote.



Mmm. If I squint I can see things I like here but then...



...which I'm not so much a fan of, especially since it... doesn't really fit with the previous post?

Can you talk me through the progression between the bolded lines, please? How did you go from "it doesn't make sense why wolves would do this, but here's a possibility that might somehow have occurred" to "this is almost certainly what happened" (since "wolves noticed the softs and got Caedorus killed as a result" follows from the latter bolded line)?

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That was indeed the quote I was thinking of, thanks for finding it.

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Okay, Jeen is the main person in the "potential towncred for lack of TMI" pile.

Also slightly walking back my suspicion of Allando's last post, I initially found it suspicious for over-justifying voting town yesterday but it was actually a response to Jeen which makes that particular point invalid.

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Illven, can I get a reads list/summary of your current thoughts about the game, please? I don't really have an idea of where you stand on anything aorn, which is mildly concerning.

(Incidentally, Illven/bladescape not w/w.)

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Though bladescape is probably town anyway? The claim is part of that but I think in general he's been playing how I expect town!him to play.

(Is it bad that I kind of want to play against wolf!bladescape to see if I end up misclearing him?)

I originally didn't get it, then I realised what could've happened. I'm like 90% sure flat is a wolf who got the hint and really wanted him gone.
All this doesn't hold up if Marin is in play though, because then they could've just targeted Caedorus. Then again, easier to get rid of him than to have to block him every day.

Nash's power is interesting because it's analogous to a cult power, but weaker. Normally, a cultist targets player X, and going forward Player X is voting with scumteam, using powers with scumteam, and sharing thoughts with scumteam. Here, scumteam only gets player X's vote, and anyone "recruited to the cult" detransitions should the cult leader be targeted for death. However, targeting the cult leader for death just gets rid of their vote power; you've gotta kill them a second time before they gain any more, or they have kill protection again. To actually get ahead of the cult leader, you need banes that can protect from culting, voids that can prevent him from culting, or kill powers; "just the lynch" is insufficient.

Also, the game could actually be over today. Say that the scumteam is Nash/Alito.

D1: Starts living 12:2/voting 12:2. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 11:2/voting 11:2.
N1: Yuma cults someone into a lover. Nash cults a non-lover into material. Ends living 11:2/voting 10:3.
D2: Starts living 11:2/voting 10:3. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 10:2/voting 9:3.
N2: Yuma cults. Nash cults. Alito rolls a 6 on a lover. No other overlaps. Ends 6:2/voting 4:4.
D3: GG EZ PZ NO RE

There are a lot of assumptions here... hm. I hope this isn't going to happen.

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Eh, my thought is that the siblings are likely similar. (due to similar nature vs nurture.) Plus something I didn't notice day 1. (Cause work is ****ing awful and keeps leaving me by myself to handle a two person job.) is that Caedorus switched their vote, while Allando keep there's on Cae all day.

I never changed my vote from Caedorus because he was IMO the most sus. Also I wasn't rlly around for EOD.
And yes, we are similar, in that we both vote each other d1. But saying we're going to always act similarly depending on our alignment is wrong: our roles are different, for one, and we are still separate people.

[AvatarVecna]

There are a lot of assumptions here... hm. I hope this isn't going to happen.

Oh for sure. It's essentially speculating on a worst-case scenario that doesn't involve townies actively throwing (like I guess it could go faster if Quattro was deliberately targeting townies but like...why?). It was more my musings in regards to Snow being worried that D3 could be LYLO. Because technically, depending on exactly what's happening behind the scenes, today could be LYLO. Theoretically. It probably isn't though. Basically everything would have to go wrong in exactly the right way for today to be LYLO.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Just enough time for a quick update but AV/Jeen have jumped up in my reads to join Kracken/Snow as "trust enough to not worry about until we get a better feel for everyone else".

Blade's claim that Marin is in the game is fine but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

One of Persolus/Lady Serpentine/Book Wombat as an inactive Wolf. My pick from that group would probably be Persolus - it feels enough to be a Wolf who is genuinely busy but doesn't want to inactive/be seen as inactive. Also...

Hello! I am alive and apologise again for inactivity. Today was also a day, but in the very good direction, so nice but still distracting.

It's quite simple - Nistro targeted someone, they're going to die next phase. Nistro, if you want to step forth and reveal who you targeted, then that's two cleared townies for this voting phase.

This explanation for what happened feels weird to me too. Like, this is after a couple people talked about there being no night kills this game. But he doesn't address that and instead calls out to have a role reveal themselves?

---

If anyone wants to have Votecounts for this Day phase someone else will have to take over the job. I might have time to catch up when I get home/tomorrow morning early but I can't guarantee it.

[Batcathat]

Your first point is basically what I'm saying you said and what you're saying you didn't say, in my interpretation.

"If flat is a wolf, it's a strange move unless it's to save a partner" implies "if flat is a wolf, so is Allando" implies "if Allando is town, so is flat" implies "killing flat before Allando is wasting a mislynch in town!Allando worlds".

But that also might be me projecting my own logic onto you when most people probably don't think about the game the same way I do.

Yeah, I'm not really sure of your reasoning either, so probably some mismatched logic. My thought is that there are basically four outcomes:

• Allando flips town: Doesn't really say much about flat in either direction. (Maybe some slight town points since a wolf might have voted outside of the wagons if they were t/t?)
• Allando flips wolf: Might make flat look a little more wolfy, but he could still easily be a townie who made a poor choice.
• flat flips town: Doesn't really tell us much about Allando.
• flat flips wolf: Allando looks very wolfy, since it's the best explanation for flat's vote.

But as long as we agree that both of them look suspicious, I suppose we can argue over the details later.

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

I would say Cao, Illven and Ti. But it's basically all gut. If I have the time and energy, I should probably reread the thread assuming flat and Allando are town (and knowing Caedorus is) and see if I can think of anything.

[Allando]

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

I'm sus of Illven mainly, (aside from my 99% wolfread, Flat_Footed)

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How do I look at a specific person's iso? Looking for a specific Illven post.

[Batcathat]

How do I look at a specific person's iso? Looking for a specific Illven post.

Click the number of replies to the thread, then click the number of posts for the specific person.