Midwest Mafia/Werewolf

[Mrs McGinty]

Xihirli
#11 - selfvote

#62 - votes Caoimhin for 'Dive-bombing on a joke target to appear helpful so late in the day'; I do not like this at all; weak reason is worse than no reason, and feels like an indirect snuggle on me

#115 - further explains above vote, citing 'newbie wolf play on McGinty' to 'get a bad wagon going';

---d2

#242 & #262 - back onto Caoimhin for the same reason;

Player halfway up the postcount list with virtually no content, sticking to a weak vote and avoiding talking about literally anything else? Wolfy as all hell. Lynch at will.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Aventine ISO

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Well, in that case, hello Lex

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The town drunk stumbles out of the saloon, trips, and falls on his face. Giving up any attempt to pull himself back up, he lays on the cold ground muttering about how it must be the magic pixies' fault.

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And because I take too long to make posts on my phone and had a couple more show up while I was making mine: Finger of suspicion on AV. It is way too early for so much wine.

Jokevote/RP post, nothing much to comment on this early in the day. Some shade thrown my way, but I did that first so can hardly get on someone else's case for doing the same.

I wouldn't, to be honest. Feels more like a careless, but innocent, mistake than a wolf slip of some sort.

And it feels like time to make an impactful vote rather than staying on a random non-wagon. So Snowblaze

Building a counterwagon to try and provide something to analyze later. Of course, we'd later know that such counterwagons would be in abundance.

Hmmm. Out of curiosity, and if you don't mind answering:

1) Why me instead of JeenLeen?

2) What do you think of my opinion that gac's mistake looks more like an innocent brainfart than a wolf slip of some sort?

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And, now that I remember that you were one of the AV votes:

3) Why the anti-self preservation vote?

Null read.

To be fair, I have reasons.

Oh, and we end on the 26th not the 25th. (I'm really living up to my rp of the town drunk here). Yeah, that makes more sense.

Ok, I was going to say I didn't think you could get a wagon going on me before the day ended, then ask who you would want to go after if the two of us joined together to start a different counter-wagon. We have a lot more time than I thought, but I figure it's still a good question.

Not sharing reasons now...

A vote that actually means something and affects things is better than some flying-under-the-radar pointless empty vote. Voting for you did (or at least could potentially do) the most at that point.

Unless you want to team up to pressure-wagon the quiet people, I'm not sure I have a better play to switch to for now.

...sharing them now though. Weird, not sure what to make of this. Not sharing reasons for voting at all would be a lil scummy, but that's not what happened.

Ahh! But only a villain would stop now!

Noooooooo!

My villainous scheme has been discovered and foiled! And I never even got a chance to deliver a gloating evil monologue. Only a truly great villain would be so cruel!

Alas, I have spent too much time planning and perfecting my now ruined plans to have observed the less villainously minded and know little of their current ways.

Also, I'm going to bed. G'night all.

Three joke-posts before bed. Null read.

Huh. Two more pages and an inexplicable wagon on McGinty. That's...not what I expected to find when I came back. (All that's missing is the Spanish Inquisition).

I like the several votes for quiet people, trying to get them to talk. But picking three or four different quiet people rather than stacking up and putting some actual pressure on feels more like attempts to fly under the radar by avoiding committing to anything while preparing a future defense of "oh, I was pressuring quiet people."

Also tempted to say the McGinty wagon smells like an experienced wolf expressed concern about and/or admiration for her to the other wolves and a less experienced one jumped on the wagon hoping to kill the danger.

I'll poke Caoimhin

Solid advice chastising town. The part about wolf reactions feels good to me - either good intuition, or Aventine's in the wolf chat and this is subtle chastisement of the over-eager wolf in question. Probably just good intuition, though, been around for awhile...leaning town.

McGinty is the most pro-town player in the game at the moment. I mean, if we both live long enough it's pretty much certain I'll get paranoid that she's manipulating us all (safe in the knowledge that there's no seer to get suspicious and check her) and so panic lynch her. But for the time being you'd have to be crazy to want her dead.

Oh, and JeenLeen, you have only one vote on you.

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Also Caoimhin unvoted, but has not yet posted. I'm assuming he's just slow (God knows I am more often than not). But this is a reminder to myself to watch that...

Defending McGinty for driving conversation...I can be on-board with that, at least. Certain parts of town definitely need to talk more. Still feel MMG's scummy though. Observant, regarding Cao, so that's good. Leaning town.

I mean, yeah, I would be at least a little surprised if there isn't a newbie wolf on the McGinty wagon. But at this point there are a bunch of town on it too, so frowny face at everyone trying to kill my villain buddy.

Joking about a bad wolf player in the McGinty wagon. Joking about being villains. I'll say this much: if either one ends up lynching and flipping wolf, the other isn't long for this world. Slight wolf lean.

To be honest, I kinda felt like you and AV make a great villain buddy pair and wouldn't want to get in the way of something beautiful like that.

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How delightfully non-committal Caoimhin. Do you mind telling me what you find scummy about McGinty?

Getting on Cao's case for the MMG vote would lean wolf, if Cao's vote on MMG wasn't super-sketchy-looking. Null.

There's something off about posting a vote count that doesn't include a vote change you made in the same post. I'm not sure a wolf would be that blatant. But I wouldn't do that, personally.

Agreed. Null.

Not after my poke, in my opinion. Completely ignoring a nascent pressure wagon to stay on a bad wagon would be way too trying-to-fly-under-the-radar for me. If you're a wolf you'd need to respond to deflect the heat: avoiding attention was no longer really an option. This argument only holds water if you and McGinty are scum-buddies and so you're expecting townie credit for being on the scum-killing wagon instead of suspicion for being on a mislynch wagon.

Overall, the post feels too much like backtracking and deflecting for me to join McGinty on you. But I like pressure, so I will join the kgato train for now.

Agreed (as I did at the time). Null.

I don't think Logan has posted at all. Looks like decent chance he's in the "signed up but then forgot about it before the game started" zone. Kgato is here to be pressured.

Oh, and my objection about the vote count wasn't that he missed some, but that he didn't include his own change, which he definitely would have known about . So it was knowingly outdated the moment it was posted.

Kgato might take a little while to show up and respond, but that's ok, I have a reasonable expectation that he will eventually. With Logan I risk sitting on him until the day ends and getting nothing. While with kgato I can always move to Logan next, and I suspect I have better odds of getting a response from kgato first than from Logan first.

That said, there are other people who could use a poke too...

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I'm not a number, I'm a free man!

A solid argument against the Logan wagon and not much else. I can't say I totally disagree, but at least my desire for a dead Logan to analyze his wagon and get anything useful out of him this game will be provided at the end of this phase. Null, slightly leaning town.

Nice OMGUS dude

I dislike the Logan wagon. At this point I don't really expect him to appear. Sitting on his wagon means not being able to do other stuff with your vote. And if he never shows up he'll AL. I'd rather have the lynch tell us something rather than just kill off the silent guy. Pressure wagons use the threat of death to get people talking so we get more information, actually killing the target isn't really a good thing.

I also don't like that people went after that mistake by gac3 early on. That was the lowest of low-hanging fruit. (So Valmark, kgato and Snowblaze

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Spoiler

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• AV -- has talked a lot, but a lot of it is more general strategy and such not directly related to solving this game. I'm mostly ok with him, but I do get slight vibes of trying to look more helpful and solve-y than he really is
• gac -- I dislike the McGinty vote. I don't really see anything else to make me feel better
• Valmark -- see above (re: low hanging fruit)
• Logan -- AL bait
• kgato -- see above (re: low hanging fruit). There are also some things in his list of reads I find curious, but anyone willing to commit to reads deserves a break at this point in the game
• Snowblaze -- I generally liked her answers to my questions. Though she was one who went after gac. I think I'm ok with her overall
• rogue_alchemist -- waaaay too quiet
• Captain Cap -- has made several posts and no actual contributions... That gets my squinty-eyed glare of suspicion
• Unavenger -- I mostly like the vote for rogue, the Logan vote was too late to be meaningful
• JeenLeen -- I'm not a huge fan of going after McGinty
• Xihirli -- I got pretty neutral at the moment (sorry other villain buddy)
• Caoimhin -- still agree with what I said earlier. Non-committal, then when that doesn't work goes with saying what he thinks people want to hear and deflects. Never feels like he's trying to help town, just trying to stay alive
• Libro -- I do kinda like what I've seen, but there is too little (and sorry, I'll get rp with my town drunk eventually)
• Lex -- I got nothing
• Duck -- I'm not sure I like discrediting day one analysis
• McGinty -- look, I don't even care whether or not she's town. So long as she's being active and promoting talk and activity I'm gonna keep her around. At least until several days in when I inevitably get hyper-paranoid and try to lynch her.

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I will see if a rogue_alchemist poke gets us anything

An actual reads list, that's cool. Gives something to hold against them further into the game. Leaning town.

Unavenger

I like nothing about what you were doing while I was asleep.

Agreed, although in the end it turned out to be a bad hunch. Null.

Feel fairly good about Aventine thus far, although if MMG flips wolf, that puts a lot of little comments into new light.

[Valmark]

#129 - ditches roleplay (= mildly scummy)

Something I'm not getting is, why ditching roleplay is wolfish?

[Xihirli]

If nobody else is doing it, the people who start it drop off. It happens in every game.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO

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I mean, pretty sure you're (jokingly) incriminating yourself there Mrs McGinty. Also, hi everyone!

Early D1 vote. Hard to say anything for sure.

Ehh, I mean, I felt I was posting late too. Day 1 feels a little different though, once Day 2 starts and the game is really going I'd agree with the logic (even if it's against me, haha).

Not sure what to make of this. Null.

So close! It's technically Caoimhin (h comes later) but it usually gets shortened to either Cao or theCape. But as long as it's close enough, anything works!

Also, it's day 1 so I'm not super set on Mrs. McGinty being definitely bad? I just don't have any better vote yet.

Same, null read.

I only have JeenLeen at 1 vote right now (from Valmark).

And honestly I'm feeling better about Mr.s McGinty for now. Really could go either way but not confident enough to really lynch. The wagon has a few of us from voting early on (myself, Lex-Kat, and CaptainCap) and not changing recently, so I'm not sure how much the others still believe in the vote.

I'll change to Duck999 since they haven't posted yet. If I'm not confident on who to vote I'd rather go after someone who talks less/gives less info.

Was willing to join me in pressuring Duck, albeit a little late. Slight town lean for contributing something, but wish they'd post more.

Oh. Well, if Vecna is voting himself again, Duck only has one. I'll switch to Logan1996 since they haven't voted yet and still have a vote on them.

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So like, cool, but is there more of an explanation? You didn't like that I unwagoned Mrs. McGinty?

Moves vote to new pressure-target. Doesn't lash out at me with votes for voting them. Null leaning town? Eh, a wolf with a cool head would do the same, and Cao's said they've played plenty before...

I mean, the answer is that I don't find enough bad to vote for McGinty anymore. Early on there was a fair amount of lampshade hanging/joking around that they were bad:





Which I've seen people do as a bad guy to deflect suspicion. No idea if that's how McGinty would act for either alignment, so at first it was enough for a first vote. Now, I'm not so sure.

But I'm not ready to clear McGinty yet? The responses to people are good enough but I'm trying to figure out what red flags are for her.



She's saying that if there's no reason to suspect her, vote her. But with the bandwagon early on there was maybe reason to vote her this game, which is supposed to make her innocent? I'm all about switching up my meta when I get too predictable, so who says this isn't her game to try changing her MO?

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But I'm a little more confused about why this necessarily makes me bad? Sure, I haven't committed to someone I really suspect. But I'm moving my vote away from someone who is now viewed as very townie to someone we don't have a read on.

If I'm bad then my play would be to stay quiet and let the lynch go through, hope there isn't much change before the Day 1 ends.

I'm comfortable with where I'm voting now. I'm not voting myself and I don't want to vote Mrs. McGinty anymore. If I don't have a strong enough read on Day 1, I'm comfortable voting someone who hasn't posted/I can't form opinions on.

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Treat me like any other player. I've played a lot in the past but it's been a while.

A lot of explaining, nothing really for me to comment on. Comes across as an involved player, maybe a lil scummy for defending MMG here but that might be me being biased.

Important difference, but no one is going to admit to changing a vote based on town opinion.




Unvoting silently is a fair point, but not really one I can defend? Either I was hoping to avoid suspicion or I had to step away from my computer for some of that time. There's not much I can do to defend that or prove innocence so I can make sure to only unvote when I'm ready to cast a new one.




Yes I did. I read what other people were saying, it made sense to me, and I didn't think McGinty was a good lynch so I was happy to change. What is your reason for continuing to vote for McGinty?

This post gave enough of an explanation of the weird silent unvote that I was willing to switch off them. Slight town lean.

Right. I failed a spot check.





Maybe it's a difference in playstyle then. I felt I haven't been super active (since I haven't had much to comment on till the suspicion on me) but depending on how things played out I probably would have been comfortable staying on McGinty a bit longer. I definitely wouldn't have come out clean, but still could have been worth it.

A good conversation we had, but nothing really leaning either way, just general strategy discussion. Null.

tl;dr Want to get this in before the deadline, but I'll probably have more to say in a bit. I'm still comfortable voting someone who hasn't been here rather than try to read into "slip ups" on Day 1 with no info. By all means, we should look back at them once someone was killed N1 and we can see how people interacted with a confirmed town. Until then, innocents who have no knowledge could easily be mistaken for wolves.




Joins the McGinty wagon just before me, deflects reasoning as "what other people consider wolfy". Immediately after says they don't agree with that rule?



And then starts to suspect me? I guess I just missed the cutoff for early random votes but Val is ok with that reasoning?


AvatarVecna - Neutral - votes themselves couple times, from what I gather this is in character. Still not something I'd recommend by page five or six of Day 1? Talks about general strategy a bit.
gac3
Valmark - Slight wolf - FoS for voting McGinty and saying they don't believe in the reason they're voting McGinty. (See Above)
Logan1996 - No read - has not been here.
kgato503 - makes a vote early on, replies to a question on it.
Aventine - Town - consistently pushing others for more information on their votes. So far I like them.
Snowblaze - Slight town? - talkative early, I like the participation
rogue_alchemist - a one line vote
Captain Cap - very slight town? - longer posts late in the day. I'm ok with for now? but not sure the vote on gac3 will do anything with an hour left in the day?
Unavenger - Wolf? - talks a little bit during the day, but only really comes in near the end of the day. Jumps on my wagon when it has picked up steam. If I die, keep an eye on them piling on to a town lynch.
JeenLeen - some discussion early on, jumps on McGinty as people are getting off the wagon.
Xihirli? - No read - somehow I still don't have an opinion yet?
Libro - No read - not around enough to decide yet
Lex-Kat - No read - really hasn't talked much at all.
Duck999 - No read - doesn't like day 1 lynches.
Mrs. McGinty - Town? - participating a lot, voting a lot. Early on the posts didn't have much content, but that changed quickly. I like the fact that there is analysis but I'm not completely sold on town. More looking to how they act on Day 2, rather than voting people to get them talking.



Since my vote was not included in the last voting page, I'll make sure i'm voting Logan1996. At this point I like an Unavenger vote or maybe Valmark, but I'd also rather not die.

*squints suspiciously*
*makes a note for Duck's ISO*

I like having a read list, so that's a town lean right there. Forgot to actually give their read on gac3 at the time, which...probably doesn't matter.

If I'm counting right, I need to vote Unavenger or else it'll be me.

Self-preservation vote (or at least thought to be). Null, anybody would do that.

So I get the suspicion on me, but of your wagon I'm going to be most suspect of Libro if anyone. He was convinced by your post to vote me, then by me to vote you? As much as that helps me it's a real quick switch.

A solid point calling out Libro for flip-flopping, but a wolf would do that too for easy deflection. Not sure how likely this would be to happen if Libro/Cao were both wolves...null read for now.

Hour and ten? I have 10 minutes?

Null.

At the risk of punching a gift horse in the mouth, was the vote on me only so that someone afk didn't get lynched? Or was there reasoning behind it?

Continues pushing despite danger to self. Slight town lean.

Even if you don't vote, giving a more detailed opinion on the current wagons will help us know where you stand once someone's role is revealed.

I like this and I too wish Unavenger had more to say about things once they were more or less locked in for the lynch.

Null, leaning town. Not as strong as Aventine by far, but I'm liking what I'm seeing. Wish they'd talk more though.

[Mrs McGinty]

CaoimhinTheCape

#49 - votes McGinty for '(jokingly) incriminating yourself'; slight scumlean for '(jokingly)' - worrying about being misunderstood on a vote like this is not a town look

#66 - responds to AV telling Xirihli it's not late in the day by confirming that they thought it was late in the day; this is a much better look, refusing the easy out

#69 - not set on McGinty being scum, waiting for a better option; townie

#117 - feeling better on McGinty, but not confident of towniness yet; reflecting on other McGinty voters; votes Duck999 for not posting; believable process

#120 - switch to Logan 'since they haven't voted yet and still have a vote on them'; requests explanation of AV voting them; again, I feel like I can see townCao's mind working stuff through

#124 - responds to Aventine on why McGinty is still scummy; explanation of perspective McG is entirely believable; questions why own moves should be suspect; great post, very townie

#152 - continuing evidence of believable thought process

#204 - big reads list; calls McGinty 'Town?' and gives exactly the right reasons; wolf reads on Valmark and Unavenger; revotes Logan to make sure;

#208 - votes Unavenger to save self

#210 - responds to Unavenger's lynch-imminent scum reads of self, McGinty and Snowblaze; says it's Libro who looks worst

#216 - questions Libro; this is what a townie should do here; starting to wonder if there's such a thing as TTTBT, then remember how many people think Cao is scummy

#222 - pushes Captain Cap to make a decision before eod for information reasons; exactly right again

If scum, has simultaneously drawn loads of suspicion whilst presenting what, from where I'm sitting, looks like a totally believable townie thought process. Never lynching here today.

Edit:

Something I'm not getting is, why ditching roleplay is wolfish?

Personal prejudice, tbh.

Roleplaying gets townpoints. Ditching roleplay gets scumpoints.

By way of explanation, among other examples, I once roleplayed an entire game as a cat, posting only sounds or actions that a cat could make (meow, purr, hiss, urinate on your shoes). Another time I posted only in quotes from Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. Anyone prepared to stick to a character gets mad props and an easier ride from me.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Captain Cap ISO

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Keeping track of your votes is a real pain, Mrs. McGinty.

If you say so. Null read.

Oh my god! Thank you for writing down the votes!
I basically spent the entire day writing a program to keep track of them, and just now I discovered a bad flaw...

Apart from that, I see CaoimhinTheCape left McGinty wagon not long after others got suspicious about a potential wolfy.
For now I'll just withdraw my joke vote: it harmed McGinty more than expected.

A solid point against Cao, and one I don't disagree with (especially if MMG flips town). Slight town lean for that. Slight scum lean for unvoting without revoting, even if the unvoting was at least declared, because...hooooo boy do I not like people not voting. At least Logan's got an excuse what with not being here.

What?! I trusted you, Valmark!
If I wasn't 55% sure that you are a townfolk, I'd probably vote you.

Joke. Null.

No reason, in fact, as I already pointed out in the same post, I unvoted her.

Null.

Valmark, I unvoted McGinty, so now she's at 3.

Null.

Time to decree my vote (finally corrected the program and reread all my notes), but before a bit of analysis.

My first vote, to Mrs McGinty, was mainly a joke, but as Valmark pointed out right after, spamming votes at the beginning is quite scummy (and annoying), but apart from that (and a suspiciously premature association with Aventine) there is nothing from my point of view to warrant an elimination. I disagree with the ones who seem overly sure that she's towny, but at the same time, she's not enough wolfy.

About Aventine, I find strange how they and Mrs McGinty started being on the same page so soon, but what really makes me suspicious are some of their interventions, like the defence of gac3's flawed position and the minor accusation toward Valmark (who has been, from my point of view, one of the towniest players so far). Still, not enough to make him a total wolf in my eyes.

gac3 is the most suspicious of all, and, if it wasn't already clear, I disagree with Aventine position regarding that first "mistake".

Previously, I had mixed feelings about CaoihminTheCape too, but I just think the pressure of Aventine's poking got the better of them (in the end, townies don't want to be hanged as much as the wolfs). They didn't defend themself too badly, and there is no legitimate evidence for him being a wolf.

JeenLeen posted a lot, and they're one of the most coherent towny out there. I disagree with a few of their positions (like the kgato503 question), but there is nothing I can attribute to malice.

Regarding Valmark, I agree with a lot of his positions and I barely find anything suspicious about him. Furthermore, I sincerely hope he's townsfolk because we share the same time zone.

There is no compelling argument I can make about the others, so I'll just end here.

A lot of talking, but not really much to talk about. It's half a read list, I guess that's nice, but a full list is a lot more helpful - heck it only even mentions one of the dead. I can't say I really disagree with any of these reads either, so that line of discussion shuts down too. Hmm...slight town lean I suppose...

Wait a second, the way I usually played with my friends is that if someone dies he loses, regardless of which team wins in the end. Are things different here?

Has some limited experience - new to us, but not to WW. Recalibrating some expectations...

As things stand, I don't want to lynch CaoihminTheCape and, aside from that, I can't really do anything to influence Logan1996's fate, so for now I won't change my vote.

Null.

I live in Arezzo, so yeah ...

Null.

I may be wrong, but I think Valmark was referring to the self-incrimination, not the wild voting.

Neither I am, but I'm against or neutral toward the current vagons, so I don't see any meaningful choice ahead of me.

EDIT: More than neutral, I'm quite lost right now. I should read Unavenger Infinity War from the start.

Could be a relatively inexperienced player getting a bit lost with a hectic forum game, could be a decently-experienced wolf doing a bit of distancing from the incoming townie lynch. Null.

No, I usually play with my friends in town (when I'm not attending university at Pisa).

Welcome to the club.

Null.

Oh boy, what a day start... let's take a minute of silence for JeenLeen, one of the only two neighbours I was quite positive they weren't a wolf.

At this point, gac3 is still one of my main suspects for the reasons already exposed, and the lack of activity toward the end of the day doesn't mitigate at all my suspicions. (maybe sidelined by the other wolves after that mistake?) (EDIT: didn't see the message of him saying he was busy)

Assuming gac3 is a wolf, let's look again at the incriminating post.

The compromising nature of the message, from my point of view, indicates a certain connection with JeenLeen or Snowblaze. JeenLeen wasn't a wolf, and this leaves Snowblaze.
There are a few other reasons to suspect her as well: the premature vagon on AvatarVecna (with a not particularly strong justification), her defensive attitude at the beginning, the vote on Unavenger at the end (this one, taken alone, doesn't mean much, given the heated argument) and, of course, the execution of JeenLeen.

About the execution of JeenLeen, if Snowblaze was a wolf, it would have been quite incautious from her to kill one of her accusers (especially after that night post), but what if she could send to the slaughterhouse a perfectly raised scapegoat? I'm talking about CaoimhinTheCape, who found himself both in the vagon of Unavenger and in the last suspect list of JeenLeen; not only that, even earlier suspicion about him was fueled, as we can see from the following post from Aventine (whose behavior in the first day was in general quite shady, if you ask me).

If we look both at Snowblaze and Aventine as wolves, an interesting light is shed on their tiff at the beginning of the game, a way to muddy the water, it would seem.

To a lesser extent, Mrs McGinty and AvatarVecna are subjects of my suspicions too: regarding the former, I'm still set on my earlier considerations; the latter has been quite unreadable for me during the first day (this kind of ambiguity bugs me), but the way she jumped on the Unavanger train right after CaoimhinTheCape (scapegoat?) got me thinking.

Another partial read list is nice, and TBH their laser-focus on gac3 feels good to me. Town lean.

I get it, but what I'm finding suspicious in particular is the timing.

This:


exactly after this:

Restating their suspicion of one of my votes, which I explained before this and after this. Null, slightly leaning wolf.

Which pressure vote? I'm going for the lynching.

Not happy about them saying absolutely nothing about the actual argument and instead solely addressing a sidenote. Slight wolf lean, but nothing really major.

Fair analysis, I just wanted to point a few things out about the highlighted point.

The first post (#196) was an answer to Unavenger's judgement of my vote on gac3: he told me it was basically useless, I told him there weren't other options I could contribute at the moment that could possibly lead to a positive outcome from my point of view, so there was no reason for me to change the vote from my main suspect.

The second (#219) was me repeating the same thing to CaoihminTheCape, who came out with the same doubts of Unavenger.

I still defend my position of back then.

It certainly feels like Cap has some experience, I'll say that much. Null, slightly leaning town.

Headstrong townie.

[Mrs McGinty]

Slighty tipsy now, so I'm gonna pause the tryhard bit until tomorrow.

Still to do:

1) ISOs for Sorting - Aventine, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna, Valmark (aka The High Rollers)

2) Posts to Review - #166, #167

3) Full d1 Reread

4) ISOs for Perspective - Unavenger, JeenLeen

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Duck999 ISO

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Look at me, joining a game for the first time in a while then waiting to be a full day late to post.

I have personally always been against day 1s that looked like this because the consensus at the end is that almost everyone is playing how they always play. On the other hand, the people who are willing to actually be active and participate are worth being kept alive for when there's more to analyze. For that sake, I'll vote Logan1996 for somehow posting less than me.

I am also always a little suspicious of people who seem to be incredibly confident about others on day one because in my experience there's nowhere near enough information to hit that level of confidence. There's nothing, especially on day one, that prevents a wolf from being active and "analyzing" when there's so little substantial content to analyze. I think some people here need to draw a line between "confident they're town" and "we should keep them alive because they're be more helpful if they are town."

Hard wolf lean, to the point I can't believe I didn't comment on this earlier. Oh boy howdy yeah you know what I freakin' hate to happen on D1? 200+ posts, 50+ votes, and 5+ big wagons to analyze later when people die off. D1 is supposed to be 17 people rolling dice to see who dies and then one unlucky person no longer getting to play, and nothing that happened can ever be used for analysis because nobody but RNGesus actually decided anything that happened! That's the kind of D1 WW that God intended!

Clearly you haven't played with me enough if you believe this.

In all serious though, I just don't have any strong reads or opinions right now because I don't see promoting discussion day one as a strong sign of a townie. I usuallyalways wait til we have at least a little more information. than day one to form strong opinions.

D1 discussion forms the backbone of further discussions. If we all waited to say anything until we had something worth saying that we were truly confident about, nobody would ever post and wolves would win every game. In a game where the set-up is inherently about an uninformed majority and an informed minority, I'm not sure how else to read that people should avoid real discussion until they're more informed. Early discussion is how village becomes informed, and arguing against discussion but in favor of informed decisions...well, it doesn't exactly sound like a townie argument.

While we're on the subject of this post, I also can't say I'm happy about joking about your own relative inactivity. That's a slight wolf lean from me.

I don't know if this has been asked, but I assume conversation at night is allowed?

Null read.

It's a newbie wolf mistake to lynch someone who has the right suspects so early on. I feel like chances are Jeenleen wasn't right if the wolves were willing to take that kill. On the other hand, I could totally see someone like McGinty using exactly this as a defense after killing someone with accurate reads. At that point it's just WIFOM though and not helpful. I'm just not a fan of the "I'm going to be a big wagon today" outlook you're taking.



I don't like this. Why vote for someone who might be town just to clear one of your main suspects? Why not just push for the main suspect, especially this early in the day when there's time for them to create some kind of response. Maybe I'm misreading this, but it seems a strange way to vote this early in the day. For now, I'll await a response from Valmark, though this is very subject to change.

Null, slightly leaning town.

I'm not sure Duck999 is a wolf but I sure don't like this attitude about how D1 turned out. If absolutely nothing else, there were so many wagons D1 that any of them dying gives us something significant.

[Mrs McGinty]

Leaving out the high rollers, here's my back-of-an-envelope ranking:

CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
kgato503
Libro
gac3
Duck999
rogue_alchemist
Elenna
Lex-Kat
Xihirli

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: gac3 ISO

Show

I want to vote Snowblaze... But I doubt they are a wolf again. So I'm going Jeenleen because they make me suspicious. If these bandwagons stay, I'll probably join the Snowblaze one. They tricked everyone last game.

Not sure Snowblaze would be wolf twice in a row by chance, but willing to lynch them without a better alternative (like JeenLeen, who's never a villager! ). Null, slightly leaning wolf for both thinking Snowblaze probably isn't a wolf, but being willing to lynch her anyway, based on basically nothing at the time.

I honestly don't remember

Yeah. I'd forgotten I'd said that. I posted it right before starting work in a rush.

It really was.

So few posts, and yet so little content too. Null read.

Okay. So I'll be real honest. This stuff blew up so fast. This thread currently has as many pages as a game I've been playing in for months. I had a calculus test Wednesday and am still working full time. So I'll catch up on this thread tonight since I'm off. Then I'll try to come up with some insights. For now I'm following my instincts and saying Mrs. McGinty

A placeholder vote I don't totally disagree with and a promise of future content. Null read for now, but who can say what the future will hold.

There's just not enough to say anything definitively, I think, although with a promise of content...well, if I don't wake up to something from gac3 tomorrow, I might well join Cap.

[Mrs McGinty]

If you're scum, AV, I trust you won't be chicken enough to kill me before we get a chance to properly go at it...

[Aventine]

...and TBH their laser-focus on gac3 feels good to me. Town lean.

I'm gonna have to agree to disagree with you on this one. Focusing on one player, and only analysing some others and under the assumption the focused one is guilty, means no real analysis on anyone else. It feels like a cheap way to avoid contributing and committing to current reads while sorta appearing otherwise. All the thought process in that post is only relevant if gac flips wolf. I'd like some analysis that is useful now, not that might be useful later.

...since if [gac] die[s] and [is] revealed Town then Aventine gets free too in my eyes (I suspect them only because their defence of Gac3 doesn't look very reasoned- if Gac3 is town I doubt a wolf would stick out their neck like that)

Haha, no. If I were a wolf, I'd still do what I did, gac's status wouldn't really matter. (Actually, I'd probably be more willing to do it with town-gac to avoid/take advantage of this sort of reasoning).

My point regarding gac was that if it was a mistake, then it's a null tell. The thought that it made him look like a wolf is based on the idea that it was intentional. But why would he ever except to get away with that? And what would he have hoped to gain? It fails the "would a wolf actually do this" test. Only way I could see it is a panicked miscalculation, and I don't see that given the circumstances. But it can be spun to look bad. And making a good, or at least good-seeming, argument against a townie? That's good for wolves. That's why I called it low-hanging fruit, and it's also why wolf-me would have done the same thing.

And that's why I'm suspicious of the people that jumped on what gac said. It didn't make sense for wolf-gac to do that intentionally, but it makes a lot of sense for other wolves to jump on it.

- - - Updated - - -

And I'm going to go back to trying to get a pressure wagon going on rogue_alchemist.

[Mrs McGinty]

@Aventine

Tell me why I'm wrong to hardread Cao as town and/or Xih as scum.

[AvatarVecna]

I forgot to go back and mention this the last time it occurred to me, but I'll put out the thought now: I'd rather have a wolf die tonight than a townie, but I'd also rather one townie die instead of two. If come morning I'm not feeling solid about any of the forming wagons I'm probably going to push for a directed lynch on Logan1996. I'd rather somebody more suspicious or whose death would give us a lot more information (like MMG, on both counts), but I'd settle for not being an extra step closer to LYLO if I didn't think we could get a wolf.

Spoiler: JeenLeen ISO

Show

JeenLeen is death/narrator-confirmed Townie. This will be slightly relevant in seeing how he talks about others, but more so in seeing how others talk about him.

I was going to go against the AvatarVecna wagon, and maybe I'll change my vote, but her voting for herself makes me suspect shenanigans.

...or, well, that's what I was thinking of writing, but I don't think her dying will give us much intel. If she's a wolf, then it's a failed ploy and probably the wolves either let us lynch her or are voting on her because they can tell it failed. If she's town, we did the wolves' job for them and they can hang back.

So I'll work on a counter-wagon. See who bites, as that could give useful info later when we learn AV and the second-in-lynching's affiliation.
Snowblaze

Not voting for AV despite suspecting the self-vote to be a wolf ploy? Obvious wolf.

I figured my explanation might seem wolfish, but, well, I also figured it was sound enough (and short enough) to be worth stating.

As to if I've ever been town: I was the accountant (seer) in the corporate game. And Town in this game



I actually feel rather suspicious of McGinty after this. As this forum has a metagame of not lynching new players D1, they are safe to do wolfish stuff like odd posts or switching around votes. The other wolves could have explained they essentially have 'plot armor' this Day.
So, following the courtesy of not voting for new players, not voting for her, at least D1.

Suspicious of MMG but doesn't vote for her to avoid voting new players, despite MMG being a long-time players who's just not played in a good while? Obvious wolf.

I missed this question when responding earlier, so answering now.

gac3: was the narrator last game, so wanted to keep him in the game at least one Day
Mrs McGinty: thought she was a new player, and not starting a wagon on new players D1
Xihirli: has been out the last couple games. Also, a D1 lynch on Xihirli probably gives little intel due to confusion-fu. (The same applies, but maybe not as much, to AvatarVecna as well.)

And, since you were in the entire game last time, it seems 'fair' for a D1 lynch to apply semi-randomly to you. And I'll admit the same makes me a reasonable target.



I appreciate you mentioning that. Not changing my vote currently, but I'll see how the vote totals are tomorrow morning.

A brief explanation of why certain people maybe didn't get analyzed too closely the first day 'round. It's honestly probably the same reason I didn't see the thing from Duck even though it's like the only thing he's done noteworthy the whole game - and who knows maybe I've missed something similar from Lex-Kat.

I don't think so. It sounds like most GMs/Narrators/whatever assign roles randomly. Or at least mostly randomly, e.g., might reserve a tricky role for an experienced player or give someone as wolf if they know they've never been wolf. But I think it was random number generator (RNG) for this game, so there's no reason to think Snowblaze or I are innocent just because we were wolves last game.

...I realize what I'm about to say might lend credence to folk thinking I'm a wolf, but I find it funny in that, now that I finally am Town, I feel like acting how I acted in my first game, when I was a wolf (and did it horribly).
So, here's my town-statement that will probably make me look like a wolf trying too hard to look town: "And, since I'm incriminating myself by stating that (or at least, removing one reason to NOT vote for me), I must be Town. A wolf wouldn't do that."

But, more honestly, if I'm a D1 or D2 lynch, I reckon it will yield some intel for the Town. So I'm cool with that. Though McGinty is looking mighty odd right now, and I'll probably join the bandwagon on them if the votes on me increase, for self-preservation purposes. (Especially since one vote on her is from herself, so in practical terms she just has 3 votes on her. Unless she pulls an AV and stays on the bandwagon against herself.)

Suspicions on MMG but still not voting her.

Something that just struck me as odd: kgato's post here, which I'm finding hard to quote and keep the context so I"m linking to.

kgato, Snowblaze, and I were all wolves last game. So his statement, not mentioning himself as part of trio, seems odd.
But, if he were wolf, probably not something he'd mention in the first place since it'd be risky in that it could draw attention to him if someone pointed that out. So, despite the oddness, maybe townish? Or wolf appearing town-helpful? That gets into WIFOM. So I'll let more experienced Mafia-analyst delve into that post.

---

ALSO (and maybe this is a question for flat_footed): forum rules prohibit 'past baggage' from other threads carrying forward. It seems that, in practice, "baggage" in the sense of knowledge of play styles and past actions is acceptable in these Mafia games. Does anyone know if the question was ever formally asked?
And now I'm going back to working.

*makes note for kgato ISO*

So I'm at 3 votes, then? Haven't done the counting myself yet, but seems that way.

So Mrs McGinty. She feels more wolfish than AvatarVecna currently.

I resemble that remark.

Also, wow did the posts explode. I'm glad I decided to get online tonight and read it, for it would've been hard to catch up in the morning before Day Phase ends.
All that said, no real change in my attitudes. McGinty seems "too obviously town" to be town. Maybe it's just that I overplayed my townishness my first game and got killed for it, so it seems really suspicious to me. And this idea of a 'towncore' seems odd, and the offer of being added to it (which I reckon means she won't consider voting for you) seems really suspicious.
Though it could just be an odd playstyle I'm not used to and thus responding to with caution. Like I probably would to Xihirli or AvatarVecna if not that a few games have already passed.

Mentioning this in part since she asked why she seems wolfish to me.



There's also the flaw that proposing such a plan might make folk suspect and lynch you instead of doing the plan

In defense of kgato: while they posted sparingly when a wolf last game, from being a wolf with him last game I know that it was largely (albeit it not always) due to being unable to post often. So I wouldn't take their silence lately as anything suspicious. I'm not saying it's any indication of innocence, but just seems normal to their real-life circumstances.

And I get the wagon on CaoimhinTheCape. But I'll stay on McGinty.

(And as for vote-count on me, I took Valmark's counting as accurate. Like him, I didn't see when folk switched their votes off me. Or I thought more voted for me than actually did.)

Suspicious of the towncore concept, which...yeah. Some good general discussion too.

Unavenger has persuaded me to switch to CaoimhinTheCape.
He's also invigorated my suspicion of Snowblaze. And I'm still suspicious of McGinty. But none of them are close to dying, so no reason to vote for them now.

...on deaths of auto-lynchees: I think, in power games, it benefits the town for a person who would auto-lynch to die, but I can see wanting the intel. Since we can't gain intel via night actions, but the wolves do kill us at night, seems good to let lynches give intel rather than be nigh-meaningless.

Also, are we doing 24-hour nights or 48-hour? Without night powers, the extra time seems less needed, and I've seen that as standard in some games in the far past.

- - - Updated - - -

As I didn't quote it, this post was the one that persuaded me: https://forums.giantitp.com/showsing...&postcount=180

[see pre-ISO note, this quoted post is what reminded me to address it.]

In case I get night-killed: I'm with Unavenger in thinking that these are good targets for the next Day.

Not saying I'm 100% convinced about any of the three people mentioned either way, but I think it's weird that we're not even considering lynching anybody fingered by both dead people. Heck, JeenLeen already proved they're psychic!

While that could be a sincere apology and insight, it could also be a wolf trying to disperse attention and suspicion.



To be honest, I don't remember. I just remember that Unavenger's reasoning seemed persuasive to me. I'll try to reread sometime during Day 2 and see for sure why, but maybe it was just unfounded.

I did realize that he didn't actually "reinvigorate" (or whatever verb I used) suspicion, as I wasn't originally suspicoius of you but just giving a Day 1 vote.

That said, I do find it suspicious that you started a wagon (e.g., a 2nd vote on someone) due to RNG justification. I usually find that wolfish, and about 50% of the time it has been.

Agreed regarding MMG's apology. Beyond absolutely anything else, I never feel a need to publicly apologize for mislynching a townie when I'm a townie, but when I'm a wolf the urge to go "oh no woe is me who could've seen this tragedy coming" is strong.

Statistically speaking, JeenLeen is a wolf. It's just science.

[Xihirli]

Aventine never defended me. It's odd to expect him to now.

[Aventine]

Ok give me a little bit, everything takes so f'ing long on my phone...

- - - Updated - - -

Re: Xihirli -- I can see flying under the radar. I can see doing what I described just above in pushing Caoimhin to push a mislynch while appearing helpful. Lean? Sure. Hard read? Why would you? I can easily buy wolf focusing on an easy target, but equally townie going after what they think is the best lynch. I'd add them to the "I need more" pile, but at this point I don't see any reason to hard read them.

...

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: kgato503 ISO

Show

Wait...Weren't they both wolves last time? Your reasoning seems a little flawed.

Huh, the D1 bandwagons formed pretty quickly. I'll go with Avatar Vecna for now (no real reason besides it's AV and I dislike voting for one's self).

JeenLeen said it, I'm just agreeing: townish to bring up previous game's wolves at all, wolfish to not mention they were one of them. Null read.

Voting for me. Strong town lean.

I seriously considered it, but I like to give Narrators just coming off a game a little breathing room (for being nice enough to Narrate in the first place).

Null.

I was mainly pointing out inconsistencies in gac3's voting (claiming not to vote for one person because they had just been wolf while turning around and voting for someone who had just been a wolf in the same game). Gac3 was the narrator that game, and should have known all the wolves that game, so I didn't feel the need to throw my name and former role into the mix and possibly make things confusing. Also, I had just followed up an 8hr shift with a 3hr trip (most of which was driving and no human contact), and was a bit tired (I briefly thought about adding it in, but my tired self didn't see a point). I'm more or less happy my post wasn't complete gibberish.

On the scum front, I don't really consider it any worse than using wolf...Although for some reason I keep putting "rebel" in front of it .

Explainy. Null.

...Wow. I think this is the most active D1 I have seen on this forum.

FYI: I can't be as active a poster as everyone else seems to be able to be. I have a job deemed "essential" (as in still going into work, not working from home), not computer based (most of my time at work is far away from a keyboard), and I have a non-standard weekend, so my available posting times are not going to be as often or long as some folk right now. I have posted when I can.

Due to the activity by the time I realized the game was live, I my normal D1 stagey of a random vote wasn't ideal (it didn't seem helpful). Since then, I hadn't had a strong reason to switch off of Avatar Vecna.

Normally I don't really invest much time in analyzing on D1, due to minimal information, but I will do my best here. Note: while I have read up to when I started writing this, I only read it all once, so I may be a bit off/vague, I'll do my best, but this is currently keeping me from eating. Also, I am normally highly suspicious of high numbers of vote changes, but I am going to let that one slide for now, since there have been so many vote changes. I am also not a fan of spreading false information, and that does make me bias. A *shrug* just means I don't have anything resembling a read on them yet.

Spoiler: Analysis

Show

AvatarVecna- Town lean-Honestly, they seem to be relatively helpful. While I am suspicious of self voting (they've done it twice already), I do have to admit it is in character for Avatar Vecna to do that, regardless of side.

gac3- Wolf lean- In addition to my previous comments on them, I am not a fan of the fact they later claimed to have not said that (however, I also understand forgetfulness)

Valmark- Slight Town lean- Was helpful enough to try and put together a vote list. Said list did misrepresented the (at the time) current vote, but I am willing to be forgiving of that, since there have been so may changes (seriously, we are at over 40 votes submitted). So that only earns them a slight ding.

Logan1996- No read

kgato503- Town, just busy

Aventine- Slight wolf lean- Has been fairly active, but actively chooses to go after someone who has previously spoken.

Snowblaze- *shrug*- Reasonably active early one, has been a bit quiet the last few pages (I think). I don't have a strong read one way or the other (sorry)

rogue_alchemist-very slight Wolf lean- relatively quiet, and I feel like they should have said more when they made their vote

Captain Cap- *shrug*-Relatively quiet, but has spoken up a bit more than rogue_alchemist.

Unavenger- *shrug*

JeenLeen- Town lean- Actively contributing, and seems genuine

Xihirli- *shrug*- Hasn't spoken up a ton, and its Xihirli, so who knows?

CaoimhinTheCape- slight Town lean

Libro- *shrug*-Hasn't spoken up a lot

Lex-Kat- slight Town lean- Has contributed, and nothing has stood out as that odd to me.

Duck999- *shrug*- They are now present, and will hopefully be contributing more

Mrs. McGinty-Town lean- Active, and working on analysis. Is pushing the analysis perhaps a bit hard for D1, but given the amount of conversation, I can understand it.

NOTE: I will probably be changing my vote in the not too distant future. I just don't have time to think it over after typing all this.

Read lists always make me happy. Slight town lean.

Okay, vote time (breaking this down based on who appears to have votes on them right now):

Logan1996: I feel like jumping on this bandwagon won't accomplish anything. If I am not mistaken (big if at this point, admittedly), they are points leader for lynch. While getting them to speak up would be good, I really don't see how my vote would cause that to happen.

Mrs. McGinty: appears to be second for lynch vote. I still feel like they are leaning more towards town by promoting conversation, so I am not going to vote for them at this time.

kgato503: I am not voting for myself.

Avatar Vecna: At this point, I feel like Avatar Vecna is leaning more towards town, so I will be taking my vote off of them, for now.

Aventine: I still get a slight wolf lean from them, but I will admit that that may be due in large part to the fact they are advocating for my death. While a part of me can appreciate the differentiation they are making (forcing someone who hasn't spoken as much to speak more, versus trying to get a silent person to speak), I feel like better targets for that might be rogue_alchemist, Duck999, or Libro. As such: tag, you're it.

gac3: I still get a wolf lean from them, but as previously mentioned, I don't like voting for a narrator just coming off of a game on D1. They get a slide for now.

CaoimhinTheCape: I stated before that I had a slight town lean towards them (then forgot to elaborate, sorry). They have been reasonably active and participating. Not much they have said has raised red flags (with so much conversation on D1, I'm sure something did, but it wasn't that noticeable compared to some of the others, and it has been a long day)

Valmark: Still reads as a slight town read. Has been relatively helpful, even if they have a new found hatred of vote tallying .

Spoiler: More Analysis

Show

I realized I also forgot to talk about Unavenger. I don't have a strong read on them. The vote chart seems like an honest attempt to help, but a lot of their posts haven't had a lot of meat to them. They also mentioned being sick, so I'm inclined to let that slide for now (feel better!)

Also, clarification/reminder: Caerulea, do you want us crossing out previous votes? If so, everyone please double check that you have gone back and corrected all of your votes. As it stands, a few of you may not be voting for you think you are voting for.

Another read list, some useful clarifications that read more like a townie than a wolf to me.

Leaning town, but it's a weak lean. As always, I'd love to see more content from kgato to get a better picture of things.

[Mrs McGinty]

Aventine never defended me. It's odd to expect him to now.

I wanted a second opinion on my harder reads from someone I haven't sorted yet.

Could you help us out and work some reads on other players?

[Valmark]

Haha, no. If I were a wolf, I'd still do what I did, gac's status wouldn't really matter. (Actually, I'd probably be more willing to do it with town-gac to avoid/take advantage of this sort of reasoning).

My point regarding gac was that if it was a mistake, then it's a null tell. The thought that it made him look like a wolf is based on the idea that it was intentional. But why would he ever except to get away with that? And what would he have hoped to gain? It fails the "would a wolf actually do this" test. Only way I could see it is a panicked miscalculation, and I don't see that given the circumstances. But it can be spun to look bad. And making a good, or at least good-seeming, argument against a townie? That's good for wolves. That's why I called it low-hanging fruit, and it's also why wolf-me would have done the same thing.

And that's why I'm suspicious of the people that jumped on what gac said. It didn't make sense for wolf-gac to do that intentionally, but it makes a lot of sense for other wolves to jump on it.

Aren't you contradicting yourself? You said you would've "defended" Gac3 either way, more so if wolf, but also that as a wolf you would've targeted them. Or am I misreading?

The fact that they kept in mind that Snow was a wolf last game makes it strange that they wouldn't think that Jeen was a wolf too. As a mistake I find it strange, but possible. Especially after mentioning both the work and the exam (I mean especially possible).
The "real" reason turns out to be something completely or at least significantly different... Which makes it harder to believe the first mistake. I can excuse the solitary vote, though.
Also Gac3 was already catched in my first game for these kind of mistakes, if I recall correctly. Though that time it was much more apparent to everyone (and it was a special kind of game with Town factions against each other, but it was still a matter of two factions trying to kill each other)

Not sure why we should assume they did it intentionally? As you said, there would be no reason to do it.

Like AV said, depending on how they act tomorrow, things might change. As of now, convinced of their wolfiness.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Lex-Kat ISO

Show

*hugs Mrs. McGinty* Sorry you were left off the list.

Null.

*nods* Not sure I'd call it an attempt, just a strange way of saying "hello".

Null.

That was me. How coincidental that my first game back, is also a game where someone recalls my particular issue. But it will no further be an issue, as I believe I have gotten over it. I think.

Null.

Changing my vote to Valmark, as I don't want Mrs. McGinty lynched.

N...wait. Hmm. Slight town lean. It's real weak and pure gut feeling, but...

AvatarVecna (1): kgato503
Aventine (1): Snowblaze
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Xihirli
gac3 (1): rogue_alchemist
kgato503 (2): Aventine, Mrs McGinty
Logan1996 (6): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Duck999, Libro, Unavenger, Valmark
Mrs McGinty (3): gac3, JeenLeen, Lex-Kat

...low activity is kinda a null read, since it could be a villager not particularly inspired to play or a wolf pretending to be a bored townie. But this kind of out-of-the-loop post doesn't fit what I think a wolf would be acting. With a more active town, a wolf would stop the act and start playing more actively to avoid being an easy "well who cares if we lose Logan" later in the game.

A post like this looks super-bad later if MMG flips wolf. It's one of many things that would be cast in a horrid light if MMG flipped wolf, which is part of what makes me think Lex isn't one. If she were, this is the kind of super-obvious tie to your scumpartner that you try to avoid.

Slight town lean, although I definitely want to see more from Lex.

[Mrs McGinty]

How are you townreading Lex off that, AV?

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Libro ISO

Show

What’s with all this darned noise while I’m mucking about in my rutabaga patch?

You there, Logan1996, stop leaning on my fence! I just replaced those timbers last week.

---

Rather vocal first day phase so far, but it needs more roleplay.

I don’t like any of the bandwagon logic thus far, so I’ll poke people who haven’t posted yet until they post.

Slight town lean for pushing roleplay, but very weak IMO.

I was expecting some discussion after I last posted, but holy moly this thread exploded.


Thank you. I haven’t had to follow a thread this fast in some time.



I wouldn’t err that way either because I tend to take 15-20 minutes for small/trivial posts, going upwards of 30 for longer ones. I probably edit/revise more than I should. If Valmark rushed it a bit, which wouldn’t surprise me given this thread’s staggering pace, such an error is plausible.

---

I’m going to keep my vote where it is for now, but I’ll move it later if McGinty is tied for the lynch. Don’t want to lose them early, especially since I don’t usually get going until there’s a couple days of lynch data.

I believe Logan1996 and Duck999 both have yet to post, unless I’m blind.

So much fun needing to revise what I’m saying because ~half a dozen posts happen as I’m typing.

So many words, so little to really discuss. Null read, nothing really strikes me either way about this.

1. I post when I have the time to be at my computer. Formatting on mobile sucks. and I have something to say. I try not to ramble in my online conversations like I do irl,
2. I read the forums offline. The "Last Activity" spot on my profile isn't accurate as to how often I do or do not view the forums.
3. I post when I have something I feel needs to be said.



Logan seems decidedly afk at this point and I dislike how my poke on afk became a wagon.
I'll shift to CaoimhinTheCape in the interest of not risking rng determining the lynch.

---

Second time there's half a dozen new posts in the span of me typing & proofreading mine. Idk if this has to slow down or I'm just that bad of a typer.

Edited to add: Thank you Unavenger for doing a vote tally last page. Edit 2 regardless of validity and that I'm now voting for you.

The second edit tickles my funny bone. I like that. Unlike people who don't lynch AFKs. Null read.

*puts away cardboard Katana and sulks off to work on stealth training to not be noticed next time*

---

Was just gonna joke around but the thread imploded. Unavenger's posts feel fishy, and while they could be working off of some bad logic, neither of those is good for town's well-being.

Looks worse in hindsight than it is. Null read.

I had two reasons:
1. Avoid lynching an afk.
2. A bunch of people had jumped on Logan after my last vote. Felt like a bad wagon building on my afk-poke vote.

Null read.

No idea how to feel about Libro, as usual. Want more content from them, as usual. Man I'm getting tired of doing ISOs on people who barely participate.

[Aventine]

Re: Caoimhin -- Still not a fan of the way he voted for you, or the way he backtracked. Under the assumption that your behavior was suspicious, I don't see why it would stop being so. He follows some popular logic pointing at you, then quickly starts hedging once called out? The vibe I get is trying to avoid being controversial.

Whatever you're seeing, I just don't see it.

[AvatarVecna]

How are you townreading Lex off that, AV?

Inactivity could be a wolf ploy. Wolves would probably stop being quite as quiet if being quiet was a ploy and suddenly the game picked up speed (since being quiet's now dangerous). Wolves probably wouldn't be that far out of the loop regarding the current vote totals, and probably wouldn't announce they were changing their vote specifically to save the person they used to be voting for. Especially if the person they used to be voting for flips wolf.

That post is a bad move if Lex is a wolf, and a super-bad move if you and Lex are scumpartners. I don't think Lex would do that as part of a ploy, and I do kinda suspect you of being a wolf, so I'm inclined to think that the barely-active and kinda out-of-the-loop poster is slightly townier than the other people who are less active than I'd like. It's a weak lean though, so idk why you're even jumping down my throat about it?

EDIT: TL;DR it's...what were the words you yourself used to describe it? "Too wolfy to be wolfy"?

- - - Updated - - -

Man I'm getting tired of doing ISOs on people who barely participate.

Spoiler: Logan1996 ISO

Show

Nani??!!!

Oh boy time for McGinty...

[Aventine]

Aren't you contradicting yourself? You said you would've "defended" Gac3 either way, more so if wolf, but also that as a wolf you would've targeted them. Or am I misreading?

(The moreso is if he's town rather than wolf, while I'm wolf either way. Thus if he gets lynched, I was defending a townie not a wolf, which I figure might influence some people's thinking)

I'd've defended him because this one felt too obvious. As a wolf, I like good-sounding reasons to lynch townies, but fear being too obvious about it, in no small part because as town I look for people doing that. If it feels too obvious I try to imitate my town self and criticize the attack.

It's a balance between doing things that are good for wolves and doing things that make me look townie.


As for the rest of your post. Again, if this was a genuine brainfart, i see it as a null tell. And if not a brainfart, I don't see why a wolf would do it. (Nor a townie for that matter, so null tell again)

[Mrs McGinty]

Inactivity could be a wolf ploy. Wolves would probably stop being quite as quiet if being quiet was a ploy and suddenly the game picked up speed (since being quiet's now dangerous). Wolves probably wouldn't be that far out of the loop regarding the current vote totals, and probably wouldn't announce they were changing their vote specifically to save the person they used to be voting for. Especially if the person they used to be voting for flips wolf.

That post is a bad move if Lex is a wolf, and a super-bad move if you and Lex are scumpartners. I don't think Lex would do that as part of a ploy, and I do kinda suspect you of being a wolf, so I'm inclined to think that the barely-active and kinda out-of-the-loop poster is slightly townier than the other people who are less active than I'd like. It's a weak lean though, so idk why you're even jumping down my throat about it?

Sorry, AV, but this gives me deep flannel vibes. Many noise, little signal.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

In case I get night-killed: I'm with Unavenger in thinking that [Snowblaze, Caomhin, and Mcginty] are good targets for the next Day.

Since JeenLeen called out a few names to follow up on if, they get killed, the wolves may have wanted to paint the three of us as suspicious? For those names:
gac3 voted McGinty
Xihirli voted Caoimhin

And that's really it. If I were to read into the kill at all I would say wolves were trying to paint these as suspects, even if no wagons have really started on any of us. Don't think we can read either way into that though.




I'm going to actually join the pressure wagon on rogue_alchemist. Went back to check on what they posted and found the only post on page 4.

I'll vote gac3 just to have a vote. May the best of us die valiantly!

Don't like that they weren't around to have an opinion on any wagon near the end of Day 1. For the same reason I want to see something from Lex-kat, who I would just as easily have voted. At this point I don't want either to get a pass with only a couple posts.

Looking forward to gac3's response but I can sympathize with not having enough time to post/analyze things right away.


Definitely getting late for me so I'll try to put together more in the morning. To note, I can appreciate Valmark's response to me late in Day 1 (Post #228). It was pretty early in Day 1 so even if I don't like the reasoning for Val's vote, voting someone for pressure makes some sense. Doesn't necessarily make them town still.

Wish [Caoimhin would] talk more though.

That's fair to want, but I feel I was involved near the end of Day 1. Unfortunately being busy today meant I got home late and caught up just now. Should be more present tomorrow.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Mrs McGinty ISO

Show

Snowblaze

Only a villain would pay such close attention to the player list!

And your response is to attempt to have me removed again at the end of the day?

If I could post that gif of where Fry from Futurama squints at something, I'd be pointing it right at you for this act of treachery!

Only a villain would make a spreadsheet to track votes!

Only a villain would do that every game so far, including twice when they've been town!

Spoiler

Show

Okay, okay.

I'll stop now.

Probably.

:S

Ahaha! But only a villain would make so insightful an observation!

Aventine

Everything up to this point is jokes to get people talking. Slight town lean but less so than some are giving it credit for, I think.

Finally I get the credit my play so richly deserves.

But pray tell me, my moderately villainous friend, have you any knowledge of the recent state of townplay on this site?

Are we to expect wallpost-battles of fiendish complexity and pointlessness, or pop-and-drop one-liners of humorous intent with no alignment-indicative content whatsoever?

It's all shouting in the dark either way, of course, but it'd be good to know what to expect so I can blend in without looking suspicious contribute to the town cause in an appropriate manner.

"I'm a wolf jk" well I'd be a hypocrite for mocking this strat. Null.

Snowblaze and Aventine can be my towncore.

Disclaimer: Membership of towncore is likely to harm survival chances and will be reviewed under conditions of wild paranoia in the case of members' continued existence much past d1.



JeenLeen

Only a villain could be so explainy!

Only a villain would switch around the vote several times?

All aboard the McGinty wagon!

The more I post, the more you vote me!

The more you vote me, the more I post!

More jokes.

No, I don't want to be lynched.

But the best way I know to generate alignment-indicative content on d1 is to act like I do.

It might help you to understand me if I tell you that the last game I played had more than 900 posts on d1 alone.

I came back here to play a more chilled kind of game, but I still want to make some kind of effort towards winning it, even if it risks me eating a mislynch for my trouble.



Edit: Just in case anyone thinks that makes me look any less villainous, I should now deploy the scummiest statement it is possible to make in mafia:

I would never play like this as scum!

p.s. Are we allowed to call the villains 'scum' here? I seem to recall someone having an issue with it once upon a time, but I'm going to find it hard not to do so given its ubiquity on the other sites I frequent.

I'm happy for all the content, at least. It's something to work with.

A perfectly natural reaction. I shan't hold it against you.

In fact, I would change my vote right now, but it seems like it would be even scummier to tell you I would change it while leaving it right where it is!




If it makes you feel more comfortable voting me, I can assure you that I'm not a new player. It's been a while, but I've played here a good few times before.

"im a wolf jk"

Like hypocrisy, inconsistency, and self-contradiction, being odd is much more often a sign of townishness than wolfishness in my experience.



This would be a much better reason for voting me than the one you're currently going off.

I've won my last ~10 outings as a wolf, soloing three of them after the rest of my team were wiped out in the first couple of days, and almost never being in serious lynch contention - even at final three - in most of those games.

But one of the reasons I'm so hard to catch is that I never, ever post like this when I'm a wolf. A good rule of thumb is that if you can't see any reasons to suspect me on d1 (other than relative inactivity - the easiest way to avoid giving other reasons), that's when you should put me at the top of your suspect list.

:D



Thanks.

I can assure you that whenever I call anyone an irredeemable scumbag it's done with the greatest respect and affection. In a game of random finger-pointing, where everyone is wrong nearly all of the time, it's important to remember that we're all just here to have fun.

Not taking the game seriously is something town generally does more often than wolves, that's true. Commenting on it and claiming it's your strategy...well, doing "what a townie would do" is the core of any wolf-strat, and admitting that it's at least partially you playing the part and knowing you're playing a part...well it's not doing you any favors. Null.

Welcome to my towncore, JeenLeen. Being explainy in the first place was slightly suspect, but now I'm starting to see how your brain works, it makes sense from town.

Now let's go with...

Valmark

Do you have much experience as scum?

"I trust these people and will defend them to the death" is something you sometimes hear in WW/Mafia games. Usually from people who are networked together. Are you perhaps...A MASON??!!!

I'm mostly joking, cuz I think the towncore concept is a joke, but I also just don't like the general idea of it. And time on the internet has made me less trusting of people who say sus things then go "just kidding". Slight wolf lean.

Immediately justifying that towncore status, JL. (edit: To be clear, it's the thought-process that I like as townie; the conclusions matter little at this point, since we have no data for reference.)

I don't know about the not mentioning himself bit, but that post from kgato could certainly be one a wolf would make.

(Had to remove the link because I don't have enough posts lol.)

Null read. Could be honest townie talk for once, could be a wolf playing the part.

This is funny, which makes me want you to be town.



Unfortunately this doesn't give us much more to work on.

Could you imagine I'm town for a few minutes, and make a judgement on who have had the more and less townie reactions to my shtick in the game so far?

Slight town lean. I like this question.

Edit:



This doesn't look great.

I mean, the analysis is reasonable enough, but it just seems like a lot of work being put into something that doesn't make much difference to the solving of this game.

AV staying away from the whole circus around me doesn't feel townie, either. I can see a sensible scum (which is my impression of what AV would be) deciding to steer clear, on the grounds that it's not something the outcomes of which they can easily predict.

Oh my sweet summer child.

Snowblaze, Aventine and JeenLeen are my towncore - I would vote to save them over anyone but myself at this point.

Valmark looks fine - I wouldn't vote there except to save myself or my towncore.

AvatarVecna has a slight scum lean, but is not a lynch priority because being talkative and risk-taking helps keep the content generation up.

I'm a sucker for roleplaying in mafia, so Libro gets a day pass unless the alternative to one of the above.

Everyone else is in the mix, and for now I'm going with:

kgato503

Two posts, either could quite easily be made by a wolf, with no evidence of a genuine solving process yet apparent.

Yeah this is the line that made me really not like the towncore concept, even if it's entirely in jest. It's also a tiny-read list, which I'd very much rather was longer, but MMG is doing ISOs later so that's useful too. Slight wolf lean.

No, no! It okay! Don't be cry! You can towncore!

Spoiler

Show

Curse my easily-exploited sympathetic nature. Now my core is too big to sustain The McGinty System. Whole thing's going right off the rails here!

Jokes.

How am I wolfish?

And why does it have to be AV or me? We've still got eighteen hours left, don't we?

Null.

Good post from Caoimhin there. Believable thought-processes. If faked, it's well done.

Null. Post defended MMG, MMG praises. Shock and surprise. I will say the post in question didn't give me any weird feelings at least, but not really any good ones either.

I appreciate the sentiment, but there's a reason my name is Mrs McGinty (one that you'll have to google yourselves as I'm not allowed to post links).

Having randed town in a game with no power roles, one way or another this was always likely to be a short ride for me.

Null read.

I've thought about this a lot over the years, and I believe it's less about me being a direct threat to scum (my record of actually catching them is no better than your average player) and more about my death making subsequent events easier for them to predict. Wolves tend to feel most comfortable when they think they know what's coming, which is less certain when I'm spamming provocative, perspective-flipping posts all over the thread.

Which is to say, the thing that gets me killed in half of my town games is the same thing that gets me mislynched in the other half. The most common feature, either way, is that it tends to happen early.

But if you're scum, and planning to keep me alive until the later stages, I will certainly be most grateful for the unexpected longevity (at least until ~d4, at which point the paranoia will likely become unbearable).

Null, slightly leaning town. These observations could be made by either side, but I think a townie is more likely to point them out; a wolf pointing them out gains "looking townie" points but also exposes a core part of wolf-strategy to the people who aren't thinking about such things.

I'm fighting off the urge to do a player-by-player analysis at this point.

It needs doing before the day is out, but I've got plenty of time, and the current thread-vibe feels very town-positive.

Better to let this roll for now; avoid locking in biases unnecessarily.

Thanks everyone, it's been a great game so far.

*hatsoff*

Null.

I'm giving you a pass because this is twtbw (too wolfy to be wolf).

Won't wash tomorrow, though.

Edit:

Special Offer: first three players to post a decent reads list get towncored for the day.

"DeEp FlAnNeL ViBeS."

Unexpectedly got a bunch of work to do, alongside home-schooling my son and supporting my wife (who's pulling a fourth consecutive 15 hour day of near-continuous phone and video calls), so I won't have much more input today.

For now I'll unvote kgato, who gets a daypass for the reads list (which I've only skimmed, but looks detailed enough), and sheep Snowblaze onto Unavenger, whose contributions so far contain no evidence of townishness that I can discern.

Joins Snowblaze in voting for the person who suspected both of them. Of course, now that there's "evidence of towniness", it's time to figure out if this post was made due to ignorance or malice. Slight scum lean.

Unavenger posting a bunch of condescending reads telling everyone how badly they're playing this game is deeply wolfy under the circumstances.

I think we're doing good, and the wolves are starting to worry.

Edit: It reads like Unavenger is looking for reasons to criticise people rather than reasons to actually suspect them. It's not a town process, it's an impression of it from a wolf who doesn't know how to fake it properly.

To my understanding, this is exactly what Unavenger was talking about between getting wagoned and getting lynched: that they called out two people as sus, those two people started a wagon on them, and that gets them killed...maybe it's villagers calling out wolfy behavior, maybe it's wolves trying to start a wagon on a townie who's on the right track. And I can certainly say at this point that Unavenger's actions weren't wolf-motivated. Slight scum lean.

It reads like Unavenger is looking for reasons to criticise people rather than reasons to actually suspect them. It's not a town process, it's an impression of it from a wolf who doesn't know how to fake it properly.

(posted again because the edit came after people responded to the original)

Null.

We have tons to analyse, and you're very late to the party in providing any real content.

And calling me a colossal wolf just rings totally false.

You're squirming because you can see the writing on the wall.

*mumble mumble* pot *mumble mumble* kettle.

Prepackaged 'scum indicators' are just crutches that wolves and inexperienced townies use in lieu of actual scumhunting.



Nobody's death tunnelling anyone. You're going way over the top with a lot of what you're saying here, and it looks very much to me like it's because you are afraid of being lynched. And that, under these circumstances, is something much more likely to come from a wolf than a townie. Also, you only seem to have recognised the need to post loads more, and start nagging other players to generate content, after you yourself became a suspect.

For my own part, I've been pretty chill about the prospect of getting lynched, even when I had a big pile of votes on me, because I knew that even if I got mislynched the town would still have plenty to work with. And most others have given a similar appearance. The fact your response seems so different on an emotional level counts quite strongly against you in my book.

Because only wolves are afraid of getting lynched, right? It's also kinda rich hearing you talk about nagging other players into posting more when at the start of the game that was kinda your whole strategy?

Sorry, Unavenger.

You misread me, but I misread you much worse.

That passion should have been a town tell, but I wanted you to be scum because you wounded my pride.

I hope we'll get another chance to play together in the future.

I've said it once already: I never feel a need to apologize post-reveal as a townie. But maybe you're just real different.

gg JeenLeen

I guess I'll be a major wagon again today, what with two dead townies making me a top suspect, one of whom I helped lynch and the other who kept viewing me scummy after I towncored them.

Nevertheless, I'm going to try for a total reset of my views of other players at this stage, rereading the thread and doing ISOs on everyone.

What I'm not going to do is stop moving my vote around as I see fit, no matter how scummy some people see it.

First up is Lex-Kat - your ISO took five seconds and there's nothing I could call townie. What can you do to convince me I'm barking up the wrong tree here?

Edit:

I'm going to work my way up from the bottom of the postcount list. I usually do ISOs this way as either alignment, and there's usually someone who thinks it looks scummy. If so, that is fine.

What I'd ask you all not to do is tell me that I'm playing the game badly by doing it this way. Maybe I am, maybe I'm not, but it won't help me to keep my eye on the ball if I'm getting drawn into a defence of my methods.

Slight town lean. Doing ISOs at all feels townish, starting from the bottom of the post-list does feel kinda scummy. Only slightly though. My basic thought process there (assuming you even want people to explain their thoughts when they disagree with you, but whatever) is that the low-post-count people have little to really analyze and thus any conclusions are gonna be weak at best in either direction. Doing them first stalls the big ISOs until much later in the day/game, making it less likely people are gonna have the time to see it and react to it and discuss it. It's that "looking more helpful than you're actually being" thing I mentioned earlier.

Post-by-post analysis on low posters: Elenna, rogue_alchemist, Duck999, Lex-Kat, Libro, kgato503.

Spoiler

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Elenna
#83. No vote, no game-relevant content.

Scummy by default, but pointless voting here until we see something more.
Edit: I am an unobservant fool and must read player lists more carefully in future.

rogue_alchemist
#105 - Votes gac3 'just to have a vote'.

Scummy by default, but pointless voting here until we see something more.


Duck999
#148 - Talks about general d1 meta. Votes Logan for not posting. Words-to-content ratio and lack of specifics suggest unwillingness to commit until thread easier to predict. Scummy opener.

#168 - Response to kgato, suggesting little point to doing anything d1. Mistaken, imo, but NAI.

#233 - Asks if night talking is allowed. Gets affirmative answer but posts no more. Could be scum trying to show some signs of activity, but probably NAI.

Very little to work with, and what there is could easily be from scum. Could vote here if no improvement today.


Lex-Kat
#8 - Joke vote for McGinty

#14 - explanation of joke vote

#65 - reply to McGinty comment about use of the word 'scum'

#159 - vote for Valmark to keep McGinty alive; no other reasons given

What little there is looks bad. Fits a profile of scum interactions with me I've encountered in the past. Comfortable leaving my vote here for now.


Libro
#60 - roleplay opener with vote for Logan

#129 - ditches roleplay (= mildly scummy); responds to Aventine remark about Valmark vote count thing; indicates willingness to switch vote to save McGinty; notes Logan and Duck are yet to post

#189 - explains lurking to Unavenger; dislikes how Logan became a wagon despite being afk; votes Caoimhin to avoid a tie (?); expresses difficulty at keeping up with speed of thread

#205 - votes Unavenger for feeling fishy and displaying either bad logic or bad intent

#223 - answers Caoimhin inquiry about switch from Logan; restates original explanation, including no apparent reason why the switch was onto Caoimhin

Plausible reactions and thought processes, with little evident concern about looking suspicious. Would not require a high level of skill to fake this, though.


kgato503
#25 - questions gac's reasoning on JeenLeen and Snowblaze; votes AvatarVecna for self-voting and tradition (?)

#28 - agrees with Valmark on gac sus, but giving a early pass because the latter hosted last (?)

#94 - explains gac bit to Snowblaze; bit waffly here

#166 & #167 - big analysis posts; content decent enough on superficial read; timing and concentration of analysis could indicate desire for image control; votes Aventine, but very hedgy with it

Sitting somewhere close to null for now. Deeper review of those two big posts and any activity today will be needed to get a better read.

Overambitious to do list for tonight:

1) ISOs for Sorting - gac3, Captain Cap, Xihirli, CaoimhimTheCape, Aventine, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna, Valmark

2) Posts to Review - #166, #167

3) Full d1 Reread

4) ISOs for Perspective - Unavenger, JeenLeen

Gonna need some beer for this, I think.

Leaning town. Only thing I really disagree with is that I don't like leaving inactives alone. Votes on them aren't "pointless", they're pressure. Or at least they should be.

lolme for that, then



I'm just saying what I see in the current game state and my place in it. Personally, I find it helpful when others explain stuff like this, wifom or not, as it helps me to follow their thought processes.

Null.

Since it seems to be a core element of the suspicions I've faced, can someone explain why changing votes a lot is considered to be so scummy?

I've not seen this take on any other site, and it seems quite arbitrary to me.

Edit: I've checked back, and I think I switched 6 times, which wouldn't be unusual for me given my post count. One thing that's making it hard to understand the problem here is that I don't think anyone has pointed at any particular switch as being suspect, so I'm left with the impression that it's just the number that matters. Is it that people think votes should only be used to express a lynch preference, and that I couldn't possibly have changed my preference so many times?

Null.

I should hope it's obvious that I don't need to switch votes to appear invested.

As for spreading confusion, I often do aim to create a degree of uncertainty and instability during d1, because in my experience it's the scum who find that hardest to deal with in a game like this (power roles and other mechanics can change that dynamic). By my standards, however, I was actually quite reserved with my chaos-spreading yesterday, aiming mainly just to spur discussion and generate content.

Slightly leaning town. Could be a wolf explaining the process to keep town from finding its footing, but idk.

@AV

Notice that I ended up town-reading many of the people I voted because of how they responded.

The whole point of the early game for me is to find people who give you positive vibes, and try to build a group whose perspectives you trust more (albeit only a little more) than average. It's not totally reliable, of course, but it's a step up from the random finger pointing that most d1 activity ends up being otherwise.

One thing that's essential, though, is that I'm not going to just carry those reads through to d2. Everything has to be reassessed in a fresh light with host-confirmed info, and that's what I'm up to today. Knowing I was wrong about Unavenger tells me something (mostly about my own failings), and knowing that I was right about JeenLeen tells me other things (that my town reads weren't total junk), and knowing that both were town gives me an idea of how certain kinds of townies are perceiving my play here.

Edit: On useful and non-useful activity, I don't tend to find longer, more involved back-and-forths to be much help at sorting people, at least not until there's some red meat on the table. On d1, I want to flick someone on the nose to see how they react, and jokey votes are a great way of doing that without needing to commit to any kind of judgment in advance (thus avoiding the great beast of bad scumhunting: confirmation bias).

Null. Disagreement on general playstyle isn't necessarily a scum or town tell.

I'll be removing irrelevant or repetitious posts from the next batch of ISOs, and posting them as I go rather than dumping a load at a time.

gac3
#21 - sus on Snowblaze, but 'I doubt they are a wolf again'; votes JeenLeen for being suspicious, but says they will probably join the Snowblaze wagon if they stay the same; weird post, no idea what to make of it

#81 - responds to kgato and Snowblaze questioning of above reasons, saying JeenLeen and Snowblaze would be dangerous if wolves; switches vote to McGinty for being odd (or new); still weird, incredibly wolfy on a superficial level, but would a wolf really act like this?

#95 & #97 - further responses to kgato and Snowblaze; distinct sense of confusion in the thought processes here, which is probably more townie than wolfie in itself

---d2

#257 - expresses difficulty in keeping up for RL reasons; votes McGinty again, based on instinct

I would hate to lose to a wolf playing like this, but I've got to try not to let that colour my judgement too much. Leaning confused townie, but if so I'm really hoping we get more to work with soon, or else gac's a no-information mislynch waiting to happen.

Null. Nothing here strikes me as a particularly townish/wolfish move. It's more ISO, but I've already covered that in a previous point.

Captain Cap
#46 - votes McGinty because 'Keeping track of your votes is a real pain'

#128 - removes vote as it 'harmed McGinty more than expected'; notes Caoimhin leaving the wagon for suspect reasons (?); I won't call this outright wolfy, but can see how a wolf might play it like this

#184 - big post; townish reads on JeenLeen and Valmark; null-to-scummy reads on McGinty, Aventine, and Caoihmin; votes gac as 'most suspicious of all'; very hedgy, which isn't necessarily scummy, and suggestions of a solving process; feels a bit too safe for my liking, though, like it's been calculated to avoid suspicion and preserve room for future movement; gac looking like low-hanging fruit at this point doesn't help this impression

#196 & #219 - doesn't want to lynch Caoihmin, and so feels unable to save Logan; apologetically helpless is not a great look at this point

---d2

#262 - big post; votes gac for same reasons as before; starts looking for associatives, reaches suspicions on Snowblaze and Aventine; McGinty and AV also suspect; good start to the day, plausible processes; good play here if scum

#264 - clarification on AV sus

Balances out a notch or two scumside of null. Wouldn't lynch today based on the above, but one to keep a close eye on.

I lean a bit the other way, but yeah there's some weird vibes. Null.

I like the boldness here.

As much as I'm hesitant about lynching gac, the reasons for doing so are decent enough, and someone ought to be pushing for it right now.

...liking things I don't like isn't a scum tell. Null.

Xihirli
#11 - selfvote

#62 - votes Caoimhin for 'Dive-bombing on a joke target to appear helpful so late in the day'; I do not like this at all; weak reason is worse than no reason, and feels like an indirect snuggle on me

#115 - further explains above vote, citing 'newbie wolf play on McGinty' to 'get a bad wagon going';

---d2

#242 & #262 - back onto Caoimhin for the same reason;

Player halfway up the postcount list with virtually no content, sticking to a weak vote and avoiding talking about literally anything else? Wolfy as all hell. Lynch at will.

I can't say I disagree with this analysis, and would like to see more from Xihirli. It feels scummy.

CaoimhinTheCape

#49 - votes McGinty for '(jokingly) incriminating yourself'; slight scumlean for '(jokingly)' - worrying about being misunderstood on a vote like this is not a town look

#66 - responds to AV telling Xirihli it's not late in the day by confirming that they thought it was late in the day; this is a much better look, refusing the easy out

#69 - not set on McGinty being scum, waiting for a better option; townie

#117 - feeling better on McGinty, but not confident of towniness yet; reflecting on other McGinty voters; votes Duck999 for not posting; believable process

#120 - switch to Logan 'since they haven't voted yet and still have a vote on them'; requests explanation of AV voting them; again, I feel like I can see townCao's mind working stuff through

#124 - responds to Aventine on why McGinty is still scummy; explanation of perspective McG is entirely believable; questions why own moves should be suspect; great post, very townie

#152 - continuing evidence of believable thought process

#204 - big reads list; calls McGinty 'Town?' and gives exactly the right reasons; wolf reads on Valmark and Unavenger; revotes Logan to make sure;

#208 - votes Unavenger to save self

#210 - responds to Unavenger's lynch-imminent scum reads of self, McGinty and Snowblaze; says it's Libro who looks worst

#216 - questions Libro; this is what a townie should do here; starting to wonder if there's such a thing as TTTBT, then remember how many people think Cao is scummy

#222 - pushes Captain Cap to make a decision before eod for information reasons; exactly right again

If scum, has simultaneously drawn loads of suspicion whilst presenting what, from where I'm sitting, looks like a totally believable townie thought process. Never lynching here today.

Edit:



Personal prejudice, tbh.

Roleplaying gets townpoints. Ditching roleplay gets scumpoints.

By way of explanation, among other examples, I once roleplayed an entire game as a cat, posting only sounds or actions that a cat could make (meow, purr, hiss, urinate on your shoes). Another time I posted only in quotes from Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. Anyone prepared to stick to a character gets mad props and an easier ride from me.

Hard wolf lean. Roleplayers are the devil's minions.

Slighty tipsy now, so I'm gonna pause the tryhard bit until tomorrow.

Still to do:

1) ISOs for Sorting - Aventine, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna, Valmark (aka The High Rollers)

2) Posts to Review - #166, #167

3) Full d1 Reread

4) ISOs for Perspective - Unavenger, JeenLeen

Lookin' forward to it.

Leaving out the high rollers, here's my back-of-an-envelope ranking:

CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap
kgato503
Libro
gac3
Duck999
rogue_alchemist
Elenna
Lex-Kat
Xihirli

Everyone on this list should take a long look in the mirror and think about what it says that Logan1996 isn't on this list. You're literally scummier than somebody who did nothing. You'd be less suspect if you'd never bothered playing.

If you're scum, AV, I trust you won't be chicken enough to kill me before we get a chance to properly go at it...

*angry were-chicken noises*

@Aventine

Tell me why I'm wrong to hardread Cao as town and/or Xih as scum.

Null.

I wanted a second opinion on my harder reads from someone I haven't sorted yet.

Could you help us out and work some reads on other players?

Null, slightly leaning town? Eh.

How are you townreading Lex off that, AV?

Null.

Sorry, AV, but this gives me deep flannel vibes. Many noise, little signal.

I'm sorry you find me actually explaining things apparently less useful than your ****ty acronym. Next time I'll do the right thing and ignore your question? *rolls eyes*

Wolf leaning, IMO, but generating useful discussion. Looking forward to those thoughts about the other high-post-count people.

- - - Updated - - -

That's fair to want, but I feel I was involved near the end of Day 1. Unfortunately being busy today meant I got home late and caught up just now. Should be more present tomorrow.

Nothing personal, just kinda want more activity from everyone. Almost everyone. Some people just cuz they've barely done anything, some because they're showing some effort and intellect and I wanna see more than "some".

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: rogue_alchemist ISO

Show

I'll vote gac3 just to have a vote. May the best of us die valiantly!

Joke d1 vote. Doesn't necessarily mean anything.

...that's it? Sigh...probably leaning scum just cuz I don't like inactivity, but that's bias talking.

[Valmark]

Since JeenLeen called out a few names to follow up on if, they get killed, the wolves may have wanted to paint the three of us as suspicious? For those names:
gac3 voted McGinty
Xihirli voted Caoimhin

Uh, good catch- I thought the same thing but didn't consider that the culprits could be who was voting them at the time. This reinforces my belief about Gac3, although...

After reading AV's analisys of Duck's posts that had flown completely over my head I'm kind of conflicted. On one side I think that Gac3 appears more wolf then Duck999, on the other...

I get not joining discussions because you think they are too random (...sort of, it does defeat the point of the game) but given that duck thought I considered Gac to be Town it feels like they didn't even bother to read said discussions. Even if it wasn't wolfish (a bit blatantly) I don't really expect anything from a townie that plays like this. If I were to see a Duck bandwagon forming I could jump, depending on Gac's situation.

Of course Duck is a veteran player, so maybe I'm missing something, but AV's thoughts are the same barring the bit about not reading Day 1, and she is a far more experienced player then me. Both in playing this game and in playing with Duck.

Hopefully we'll get answers.

(No comment on Xi- I think Caoimhin is suspicious, so it makes little sense for me to suspect Xi for voting them. I should keep an eye out for her though, but that's a given for everyone)

On a completely unrelated note, I'm starting to love Vecna's snarky comments, assuming that's the correct adjective.