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  1. - Top - End - #181
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Eh, yes and no- I did post my list of suspects, and BW fits precisely as Macavity... And we do need to consider the risk of loss. I'd much prefer targeting the head cultist, but without being exactly sure of who they are...

    Plus BW still needs to reply to the pressure anyway.

  2. - Top - End - #182
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    GreenSorcererElf

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Ok. My best guess now is that Apogee and Book Wombat are wolves, and Valmark is Bombalurina.

  3. - Top - End - #183
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Agreed on BW, though I don't understand where people are getting me being the head cultist?

  4. - Top - End - #184
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Look guys. Flat footed didn't steal anything last night.

    Below is the player list. The ones uncrossed mean that they are the ones that still need to be targetted... Or killed. So I don't really care too much but I am on board with all of the major suspects because I neither know who they are, nor do I need them alive. This is mainly just a check in.

    Spoiler: Player List
    Show

    Apogee1
    Aventine
    Book Wombat
    Bunny of Faith
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    flat_footed
    gac3
    JeenLeen
    JoyWonderLove
    Logan1996
    Snowblaze
    Unavenger
    Valmark


    My counts shows we have six more to target? So assuming flat footed doesn't show up tonight... Someone dies today and if someone I don't choose dies at night then I'm halfway through the rest.

    So looks like the soonest I am likely to have achieved my win con is two days from now. So I really think we should get whoever we most suspect as being cult leader. That way they can't grow and the cult can try to work to eliminate the wolves. And by extension, pretty much guarantee that the game lasts long enough for me to try to win.
    Last edited by gac3; 2020-06-29 at 11:20 AM.

  5. - Top - End - #185
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    I'm not against helping gac, homewever seeing how people seem to trust me being the Head Cultist, I can't really go along with that since my suspect for the Cult isn't, well, myself.

  6. - Top - End - #186
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I'm not against helping gac, homewever seeing how people seem to trust me being the Head Cultist, I can't really go along with that since my suspect for the Cult isn't, well, myself.
    I understand. Honestly I hope this isn't my fault. I expressed a guess that you might be the most likely cult leader last night. But just based on a hunch. No evidence.

  7. - Top - End - #187
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    Ok. My best guess now is that Apogee and Book Wombat are wolves, and Valmark is Bombalurina.
    Well I’m not a wolf but you should join me on Valmark then

  8. - Top - End - #188
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    GreenSorcererElf

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Well I’m not a wolf but you should join me on Valmark then
    The issue is I'm less certain about Valmark. I didn't (and don't) want to rely on the wolves killing Bombalurina for us, but we're starting to get closer to the point where even killing one scum just gives the other faction lynch control the next day. We're running out of mislynches that we can survive. The ability to convert makes the cult more of a threat, but is it better to lynch the player more likely to be a less dangerous (for the moment) scum, or the player with a smaller chance of being the more dangerous scum?

  9. - Top - End - #189
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    The issue is I'm less certain about Valmark. I didn't (and don't) want to rely on the wolves killing Bombalurina for us, but we're starting to get closer to the point where even killing one scum just gives the other faction lynch control the next day. We're running out of mislynches that we can survive. The ability to convert makes the cult more of a threat, but is it better to lynch the player more likely to be a less dangerous (for the moment) scum, or the player with a smaller chance of being the more dangerous scum?
    Of the at least 3 VT left in the game I'm not going to take the chance that Book Wombat the confirmed one is Macavity where Valmark is quite possibily the cult leader. I mean what exactly is the case on book wombat being Macavity besides the one post I quoted of hers which seems awkward after Unavenger noted that she was copchecked?

  10. - Top - End - #190
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Voting patterns around JeenLeen point to Wombat. So I pushed it today to see what would happen, and I got these:

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Interesting you two come together and agree like this after all that earlier conflict onto a claimed and peeked VT. I know we have to find macavity and we have too many VT but still I'm starting to want to resurrect that Aventine cult theory, where the cult than converts Valmark or the other way around because it kind of makes a lot of sense from my POV
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Yeah but it's the classic dilemma with godfather esque roles. You assume the peek is accurate until you have to consider it not being or risk loosing. Like I know this, I brought up the chance of Wombat as Macavity first, but the way you and Aventine and now Bunny piled on in what looks like it could be a preservation of you susses me out

    Valmark
    "I know we need to figure out who Macavity is, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to just assume the scry is accurate, even though we know it might not be."

    It's not a natural response. It's a "trying to figure out how to get out of this mess" sort of response.

    It's "interesting" that me and Valmark would agree despite earlier arguments? Why? And why would that suggest we are wrong? And if you think we are scum and working together, why would we choose to go after the person who's been scried? Then you put too much effort into trying to discourage hunting for Macavity. Then you sugest me, Valmark and Bunny look like we're working together to protect Valmark. What faction do you think we are? And how many of us do you think there are?

  11. - Top - End - #191
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    You've been coppeeked as vanillager so congrats, it's pretty convincing.

    Unless you are feeling guilty about something because you are Macavity?
    I was the first person to bring up Book Wombat as Macavity.

    I think you and Valmark are cult and Bunny of Faith just went in on Valmark because momentum.

    There is a real chance there are 3 cult right now.

    There are 10 players - the neutrals left = 8, 2 wolves probably = 6, 2+ cult = 4 town left at most
    If we vote off a town, then cult converts a town cult just wins

    Town probably looses unless we hit cult today or mafia hit cult tonight.

    Tinfoiling a PEEKED VT on the 1/3 chance they are Macavity makes absolutely no sense if and as town looses if we do

    The fact you seem to recognize cult is one of the largest threats and you seem to have no interest in going after the most likely leader is incredibly sus

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post

    "I know we need to figure out who Macavity is, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to just assume the scry is accurate, even though we know it might not be."

    It's not a natural response. It's a "trying to figure out how to get out of this mess" sort of response.
    "I know we need to hit cult soon, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to pretend town has a chance so they don't turn and vote on me"

    - - - Updated - - -

    Aventine, explain to me town's path to victory if we don't hit cult today

  12. - Top - End - #192
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Again, how am I the most likely head cultist? And I doubt there's three cultists seeing how 'Cult Leader' knew Jeen was Mafia on Day 2. Would have had to try to convert him to discover that.

    If anything, the fact that somebody in the QT accused me of being Bombalurina when nobody could have reported results of a scry (If I'm not mistaken about my memory of the power roles) should show you that they are trying to use me as easy lynch. Or I guess somebody could have been converted and then be betraying me like gac said, but then why the concerned cat didn't offer explanation on that?

    Unless you think it's all a devious ploy I guess.

  13. - Top - End - #193
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Again, how am I the most likely head cultist? And I doubt there's three cultists seeing how 'Cult Leader' knew Jeen was Mafia on Day 2. Would have had to try to convert him to discover that.

    If anything, the fact that somebody in the QT accused me of being Bombalurina when nobody could have reported results of a scry (If I'm not mistaken about my memory of the power roles) should show you that they are trying to use me as easy lynch. Or I guess somebody could have been converted and then be betraying me like gac said, but then why the concerned cat didn't offer explanation on that?

    Unless you think it's all a devious ploy I guess.
    Yeah the QT thing was wack I'm not focusing on it. I've already explained that 100% calling Jeen a wolf could have been cult gunning to save you and they lucky guessed a slot that was actually wolf.

    Easy person to vote? Maybe? More likely IMO person who has skated by a little long.

    So who is cult leader? How do we win if we don't hit cult leader today or if mafia doesn't get them tonight?

  14. - Top - End - #194
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    GreenSorcererElf

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    You've been coppeeked as vanillager so congrats, it's pretty convincing.

    Unless you are feeling guilty about something because you are Macavity?
    I was the first person to bring up Book Wombat as Macavity.
    So? What difference does it make that you were the first to bring it up? Why does that matter at all? And quoting that post of yours isn't doing you any favors. In it you emphasize that Wombat is totally certain to be town, then hedge by noting the possibility of Macavity. That post makes you two look like scum-buddies, and your insistence that being the first to point out the possibility of Wombat being Macavity is somehow meaningful and relevant is bizarre. You're trying too hard to get towncredit from something that could just as easily (if not more) be a scum trying for towncredit than an actual townie.

    There is a real chance there are 3 cult right now.

    There are 10 players - the neutrals left = 8, 2 wolves probably = 6, 2+ cult = 4 town left at most
    If we vote off a town, then cult converts a town cult just wins

    Town probably looses unless we hit cult today or mafia hit cult tonight.
    You go from "it's possible" to "it's probable." Less town compared to cult raises the likelihood of the NK hitting cult, and the likelihood of conversion attempts hitting mafia. We need to lynch both mafia and cult, I've already noted that we're running out of mislynches we can survive.

    Also, the idea that if we mislynch and the cult successfully converts they "just win" is completely wrong. The mafia still have an NK. Only under the assumption that there are currently 3 cultists (meaning the JeenLeen thing was crazy luck, much less likely than your "1/3" below), and both they successfully convert tonight and the mafia miss them with an NK, would the cult get 50% of the lynch votes. And even then, that's not an outright majority. Plus, both town and mafia have a role in the recruitment post that count as having one less vote, requiring more votes to securely control the lynch. Plus, Old Deuternomy survives one NK or conversion.

    You are building an argument off a possibility, and not even one that appears to have a great chance of being true, misrepresenting it as much more probable than it actually is. And even then you have to blatantly lie in order for your scenario to look as bad as you want it to.

    Tinfoiling a PEEKED VT on the 1/3 chance they are Macavity makes absolutely no sense if and as town looses if we do
    1/3 chance if we know literally nothing else. The whole point of this game is analyzing to find players who are more likely than random chance to be scum. Ignoring that and claiming that there is a 1/3 chance here is something there is no way anyone other than scum would ever do.

    The fact you seem to recognize cult is one of the largest threats and you seem to have no interest in going after the most likely leader is incredibly sus

    - - - Updated - - -


    "I know we need to hit cult soon, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to pretend town has a chance so they don't turn and vote on me"

    - - - Updated - - -

    Aventine, explain to me town's path to victory if we don't hit cult today
    Cult is a threat, but at this point I have no doubt that you and Wombat are mafia scum-buddies. I'll take the guaranteed scum kill and hope you hit a cultist tonight over a chance of hitting a cultist with this lynch.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Yeah the QT thing was wack I'm not focusing on it. I've already explained that 100% calling Jeen a wolf could have been cult gunning to save you and they lucky guessed a slot that was actually wolf.
    We shouldn't "tinfoil" about Wombat being macavity because there is supposedly only a 1/3 chance of it being true. But it's totally reasonable to assume that the cult found Jeen by pure dumb luck?

  15. - Top - End - #195
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    My guesses for Bombalurina are either you or Aventine, going by exclusion. I don't really find either of you likely though, nor do I believe I can push a lynch on either >.>

    And it's a pretty easy way out to not consider the QT thing when it would speak for my innocence.

    Anyway, it's not impossible but pretty hard to win without getting the Cult Leader- thing is, killing me is a mislynch so that won't get you anywhere. Not that you believe me.

  16. - Top - End - #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    So? What difference does it make that you were the first to bring it up? Why does that matter at all? And quoting that post of yours isn't doing you any favors. In it you emphasize that Wombat is totally certain to be town, then hedge by noting the possibility of Macavity. That post makes you two look like scum-buddies, and your insistence that being the first to point out the possibility of Wombat being Macavity is somehow meaningful and relevant is bizarre. You're trying too hard to get towncredit from something that could just as easily (if not more) be a scum trying for towncredit than an actual townie.



    You go from "it's possible" to "it's probable." Less town compared to cult raises the likelihood of the NK hitting cult, and the likelihood of conversion attempts hitting mafia. We need to lynch both mafia and cult, I've already noted that we're running out of mislynches we can survive.

    Also, the idea that if we mislynch and the cult successfully converts they "just win" is completely wrong. The mafia still have an NK. Only under the assumption that there are currently 3 cultists (meaning the JeenLeen thing was crazy luck, much less likely than your "1/3" below), and both they successfully convert tonight and the mafia miss them with an NK, would the cult get 50% of the lynch votes. And even then, that's not an outright majority. Plus, both town and mafia have a role in the recruitment post that count as having one less vote, requiring more votes to securely control the lynch. Plus, Old Deuternomy survives one NK or conversion.

    You are building an argument off a possibility, and not even one that appears to have a great chance of being true, misrepresenting it as much more probable than it actually is. And even then you have to blatantly lie in order for your scenario to look as bad as you want it to.



    1/3 chance if we know literally nothing else. The whole point of this game is analyzing to find players who are more likely than random chance to be scum. Ignoring that and claiming that there is a 1/3 chance here is something there is no way anyone other than scum would ever do.



    Cult is a threat, but at this point I have no doubt that you and Wombat are mafia scum-buddies. I'll take the guaranteed scum kill and hope you hit a cultist tonight over a chance of hitting a cultist with this lynch.
    Ok I'm pretty sure you are just straight cultsiding now.

    Put it this way: if Wombat is not scum (which I'll put at 2/3 from your perspective AS YOU ADMIT the chance is about 1/3), in what is probably the best case scenario we end up with 2 cult, 2 wolves, 3 townies, and the neutrals going into night. Even if the cult shoots the leader we come out with 2 cult 2 wolves 3 townies and the neutral. That's not a good position, and the fact you don't feel a need to avoid it locks you in as scum. And that assumes a) wolves target the cult leader, b) cult don't have the doc c) towndoc doesn't do something stupid.

    LMAO at Book Wombat being a guaranteed scum kill have you cult!peeked them macavity somehow? That's the only reason you could possibly be so confident. I mean believe what you want and it's better they flip Macavity than VT for sure but "I'll take the guaranteed scumkill" is ?!?.

    The fact that you and Valmark are happy to blatantly ignore any reservations you have had with each other and pile onto a peeked VT is a big ??.

    Completely pointless argument on JeenLeen and luck -- he would have been the obvious target for a cult fake outting as scum -- and from the cult perspective he would have been a 3/7? 8? chance of being scum anyways (I forget how many clears there were at that point) literally a better chance than Wombat lol.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    My guesses for Bombalurina are either you or Aventine, going by exclusion. I don't really find either of you likely though, nor do I believe I can push a lynch on either >.>

    And it's a pretty easy way out to not consider the QT thing when it would speak for my innocence.

    Anyway, it's not impossible but pretty hard to win without getting the Cult Leader- thing is, killing me is a mislynch so that won't get you anywhere. Not that you believe me.
    Actually I'm kind of coming around on you being the minion and Aventine being the leader but ?!? I don't know anymore.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    We shouldn't "tinfoil" about Wombat being macavity because there is supposedly only a 1/3 chance of it being true. But it's totally reasonable to assume that the cult found Jeen by pure dumb luck?
    Big difference: there was other stuff that would draw cult towards targeting Jeen so it doesn't matter initially if he was a wolf or not. Cult didn't fake peek him accurately because they thought he was wolf but because he was playing anti-cult. Probability of him being wolf or not than doesn't matter for determining why the fake peek would occur.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Aventine what positive results have come out of your D1 networking?

    I'm coming back around on a thought I had d1 that Aventine's plan was just to ensure they survive the night as a scum PR (likely cult).

  17. - Top - End - #197
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Put it this way: if Wombat is not scum (which I'll put at 2/3 from your perspective AS YOU ADMIT the chance is about 1/3)
    *shrug*

    I didn't even bother reading beyond this. If you're gonna try to claim I admitted the chance was about 1/3 then you're either panicking or just straight-up lying. An important part of my argument was that the chances were very much not 1/3.

  18. - Top - End - #198
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    *shrug*

    I didn't even bother reading beyond this. If you're gonna try to claim I admitted the chance was about 1/3 then you're either panicking or just straight-up lying. An important part of my argument was that the chances were very much not 1/3.
    Ok that's actually right: I misread your comparison to JeenLeen's chances of being wolf as saying Book Wombat was 1/3.

  19. - Top - End - #199
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    To be fair, I don't really have a choice- either we lynch Macavity, or mislynch me apparently. And I'm not sacrificing myself at this point in game, could lead to Town losing.

    And I should point out that Macavity would still turn out as Town for Cult, according to the role description- I'd tell you it's almost guaranteed, given my own list of suspects.

    And yeah, as Aventine said, that math isn't correct. I very much believe you to be not-Town, having an hard time deciding what.

  20. - Top - End - #200
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    And I've seen absolutely no reasoning for why BookWombat is more likely as Macavity than JWL or the third remaining "VT"

    But me saying this will likely confbias you further into us as a scumpair so *shrug* indeed

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ok if both of you are fully confident on Book Wombat Macavity maybe we just go there.

    Idk no one else in this game besides the literal wolves seems to be concerned about the cult (which tbh fits into what happened to me in a cult/town/wolves game on another site) and maybe I panicked a bit over exactly how bad our situation is but it is really bad I think if the cult leader isn't dead by tomorrow one way or another.

  21. - Top - End - #201
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Random question: I assum their are games with just cult and no wolves. Do those not have night kills?

  22. - Top - End - #202
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    And I've seen absolutely no reasoning for why BookWombat is more likely as Macavity than JWL or the third remaining "VT"

    But me saying this will likely confbias you further into us as a scumpair so *shrug* indeed
    BW exhibited one of Macavity's powers, plus voted without giving reasons nor commenting on anything. I'd have other things, but I don't really want to go reread at this time of night.
    Joy claimed correctly Vanilla before the role text was public (something you noticed too- this does make you look like a buddy, funnily).

    Guess I can't really prove who the third VT is- but it's not, or at least shouldn't be, BW. At the very least it fits nicely with my theory of BW being Macavity.

  23. - Top - End - #203
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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Ok let's look at the math calmly and slow enough I don't trip up.

    WORLD A:Living (assume cult failed a recruit)

    4 town 2 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral

    After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:

    4 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral, A
    After night assuming cult doesn't miss and wolves miss cult: 2 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals, town looses this as cult and neutrals win together
    After night if cult doesn't miss and wolves hit non leader cult: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals: town has a chance if they vote cult leader exactly
    If cult doesn't miss and wolves hit a leader: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals. This is way up in the air and town could win

    I guess Old Deuteronmy messes this up to an extent

    If BW is not Macavity:
    3 Town 2 Cult 2 Wolves 2 Neutral

    Not going to case all of these but I think either cult or wolves win here the vast majority of the time. Let me know how town pulls this off if they do. Maybe a Old deuternomy shot onto either macavity or grizabella does it.

    WORLD B: Living (assume cult got 2 recruits)

    3 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral

    After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:

    3 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral: Unless wolves hit cult leader cult wins

    If BW is not macavity

    2 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral. IDK who wins but Old Deuteronomy would be the only town left so town looses


    Ok it's a leap of faith onto BW being macavity but maybe it's our best option to have a chance TBH. It would require me putting aside what I actually think happens with JeenLeen and hoping wolves don't cult but maybe it's our only out

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Random question: I assum their are games with just cult and no wolves. Do those not have night kills?
    Generally town has a vig or something like that else town autoloses pretty much

    - - - Updated - - -

    Fine leap of faith it is Book Wombat

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Joy claimed correctly Vanilla before the role text was public (something you noticed too- this does make you look like a buddy, funnily).

    I noticed this yeah, but who does it make me a buddy too? And not sure where I posted that I noticed this?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yeah I'm rereading what I've said these last pages and maybe I'm just too worried about the cult and trying to fit my worldview to that.

    For reference, the cult game I mentioned above was a 72 player game where we had 4 cultists to start and we won with only 2 deaths ending with 10 cultists. No one actually cult hunted until like d3 when we pretty much had the game locked already. I'm terrified we are approaching that but maybe it's better just to go for what is in front of us while we can, but that's what the town in that game did and they got burned hard for it

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also inb4 it's something like JWL macavity, logan and wombat cult and lol at us for fighting in that world.

    But nah probably at least one of Valmark and Aventine is bad I just don't really know who

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    End Of Day Three


    Stories of Macavity spread from one cat to the next, with old paws teaching newcomers about his tricky ways. Paranoia built among them, until they ended up cornering one of the newer cats who they were all convinced was Macavity's most recent alias. Alas...the Hidden Paw eluded them.


    Book Wombat died. They were a Vanillager.

    Spoiler: Book Wombat Role PM
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    Book Wombat/Vanillager
    "All cats are jellicle cats, you see."


    You have no special power. If you would be scried, and the scry would learn your role name, they are told you are Komadia.


    Night Three Ends In ~48 hours


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xumtiil View Post
    An Abattoir Vecna, if you will.
    My Homebrew

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    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Oh look, the person we scried as VT was VT. No way.

    I don't know why I bother telling you people things.

  26. - Top - End - #206
    Ogre in the Playground
    Join Date
    Dec 2013

    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    Oh look, the person we scried as VT was VT. No way.

    I don't know why I bother telling you people things.
    Look, I was rioting for Valmark.

    Btw: Wolves, if you wanted to reach out, I'd like to know two things:

    1. Can you kill someone not crossed out on my list? And help me not pick them. My current plan is to target JWL.

    2. If you are telling me that, I would also like to know if you have the baner or the beast as your last wolf.

  27. - Top - End - #207
    Barbarian in the Playground
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    Oh look, the person we scried as VT was VT. No way.

    I don't know why I bother telling you people things.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Macavity
    "He always has an alibi, and one or two to spare."

    You are the first role assigned. You will select a number of players as directed, and assign roles to them from the other roles here in the mafia section.

    If you would have your alignment scried, you will detect as town. If you would also have your role name scried, they will be told a private random jellicle name assigned to you at the beginning of the game instead of your actual role name.[/spoiler]
    Macavity scries as town.

  28. - Top - End - #208
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Valmark's Avatar

    Join Date
    May 2017
    Location
    Montevarchi, Italy
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I noticed this yeah, but who does it make me a buddy too? And not sure where I posted that I noticed this?
    Made you a buddy because you wrote that you noticed it but seemingly ignored it to build your case for defending Book.
    And you posted a bit earlier while we talked of the evenience of more then three vanillagers.

    And uhm, I guess we now know for sure there are more then three vanillagers. Could it be possible that Jeen was being truthful?

    I'll elaborate more on this in the morning. There is to say that I had a list of 4/5 people, and with the new knowledge this still fits nicely in, having 3/4 suspects of 4 possible villains.

  29. - Top - End - #209
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    WolfInSheepsClothing

    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Gender
    Intersex

    Default Re: The Jellicle Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunny of Faith View Post
    Macavity scries as town.
    Yeah, but "That VT was necessarily Macavity" was a BIT OF A STRETCH, don't you think? It seems as though the very fact that they scried as town was used as ammo for them not being, which doesn't make me very happy about it.

  30. - Top - End - #210
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    RedKnightGirl

    Join Date
    Oct 2019

    Question Re: The Jellicle Ball

    @AV: If a Town member is converted by the Cult one night, and then targetted by the Mafia another, are they reported as a Town-turned-Cult passing? Or exclusively as a Towny being targetted?

    4) The game ends when only one non-neutral faction remains.
    For Apopgee or whoever it was that claimed the bigger faction wins automatically: Not necessarily true. AV's first post does highlight the normal conditions for a team victory.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunny of Faith View Post
    Sorry for the general radio silence over here! Also, I shall point at Book Wombat as well for the time being.
    Posts saying very - very - little, votes without any clear reason, and then goes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Ok let's look at the math calmly and slow enough I don't trip up.

    WORLD A:Living (assume cult failed a recruit)

    4 town 2 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral

    After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:

    4 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral, A
    After night assuming cult doesn't miss and wolves miss cult: 2 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals, town looses this as cult and neutrals win together
    After night if cult doesn't miss and wolves hit non leader cult: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals: town has a chance if they vote cult leader exactly
    If cult doesn't miss and wolves hit a leader: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals. This is way up in the air and town could win

    I guess Old Deuteronmy messes this up to an extent

    If BW is not Macavity:
    3 Town 2 Cult 2 Wolves 2 Neutral

    Not going to case all of these but I think either cult or wolves win here the vast majority of the time. Let me know how town pulls this off if they do. Maybe a Old deuternomy shot onto either macavity or grizabella does it.

    WORLD B: Living (assume cult got 2 recruits)

    3 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral

    After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:

    3 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral: Unless wolves hit cult leader cult wins

    If BW is not macavity

    2 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral. IDK who wins but Old Deuteronomy would be the only town left so town looses
    This is all assuming that Jeen (a confirmed Mafia member, that likely wants his 'team' to win) was being honest and the Mafia only has three members to start. I doubt it's true for that reason. Why have none of us questioned whether the Neutrals might be lying? From the start, I blindly assumed gac3 was being honest when he claimed to me in a quicktopic. But, late game, exclusively after we have gone after the most likely candidates for none-Town, and only if we're grasping for targets, I think it's fair to target flat_footed. He pretty much doesn't care enough to post or participate, and allegedly didn't even use his powers last night. All that points to a player that doesn't care if he's voted off (again, much later, we have bigger priorities right now). It's also a way to test if gac3 is lying without losing anyone talkative.

    But, as I've already repeated, focus on the more likely Mafia and Cult first.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Also inb4 it's something like JWL macavity, logan and wombat cult and lol at us for fighting in that world.

    But nah probably at least one of Valmark and Aventine is bad I just don't really know who
    ?

    Valmark even pointed out my posted role matches (word for word) the real Vanillager text (that I made on the first page). Throw in the Aventine observations and your comments feel off.

    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    Well that puts this into an interesting context:
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    Yeah, but "That VT was necessarily Macavity" was a BIT OF A STRETCH, don't you think? It seems as though the very fact that they scried as town was used as ammo for them not being, which doesn't make me very happy about it.
    What I thought happaned was it was a spillover from the last Day's vote; those other posters claimed they were suspicious of Book Wombat specifically, even then. That night went by with TheCape being Mafia targeted. Then you posted TheCape's supposed PM suggesting "Macavity might be BW or JWL, maybe". Then it spilled over into the previous day's mistrusts of Book Wombat and Macavity's ability to change names. That's the superficial analysis. TheCape and I were actually talking in a "Towncore" first day, but it never really went beyond us. With him gone, and no other Town Core established (?), I'm speculating Jenny was hit by the Cult. Otherwise, she would have knit together the beginnings of another Core by now (or maybe I'm expecting too much of her).

    So, Unavenger, I'll leave you to come to your own conclusions about who's being honest. Also, we have a few surprisingly quiet players that have said little to nothing.
    Last edited by JoyWonderLove; 2020-06-27 at 07:50 AM.

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