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Thread: The Jellicle Ball
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2020-06-26, 02:10 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Eh, yes and no- I did post my list of suspects, and BW fits precisely as Macavity... And we do need to consider the risk of loss. I'd much prefer targeting the head cultist, but without being exactly sure of who they are...
Plus BW still needs to reply to the pressure anyway.
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2020-06-26, 03:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Ok. My best guess now is that Apogee and Book Wombat are wolves, and Valmark is Bombalurina.
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2020-06-26, 04:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: The Jellicle Ball
Agreed on BW, though I don't understand where people are getting me being the head cultist?
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2020-06-26, 05:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Look guys. Flat footed didn't steal anything last night.
Below is the player list. The ones uncrossed mean that they are the ones that still need to be targetted... Or killed. So I don't really care too much but I am on board with all of the major suspects because I neither know who they are, nor do I need them alive. This is mainly just a check in.
Spoiler: Player List
Apogee1
Aventine
Book Wombat
Bunny of Faith
CaoimhinTheCape
Elenna
flat_footed
gac3
JeenLeen
JoyWonderLove
Logan1996
Snowblaze
Unavenger
Valmark
My counts shows we have six more to target? So assuming flat footed doesn't show up tonight... Someone dies today and if someone I don't choose dies at night then I'm halfway through the rest.
So looks like the soonest I am likely to have achieved my win con is two days from now. So I really think we should get whoever we most suspect as being cult leader. That way they can't grow and the cult can try to work to eliminate the wolves. And by extension, pretty much guarantee that the game lasts long enough for me to try to win.Last edited by gac3; 2020-06-29 at 11:20 AM.
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2020-06-26, 05:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
I'm not against helping gac, homewever seeing how people seem to trust me being the Head Cultist, I can't really go along with that since my suspect for the Cult isn't, well, myself.
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2020-06-26, 05:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2020-06-26, 06:50 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-06-26, 07:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
The issue is I'm less certain about Valmark. I didn't (and don't) want to rely on the wolves killing Bombalurina for us, but we're starting to get closer to the point where even killing one scum just gives the other faction lynch control the next day. We're running out of mislynches that we can survive. The ability to convert makes the cult more of a threat, but is it better to lynch the player more likely to be a less dangerous (for the moment) scum, or the player with a smaller chance of being the more dangerous scum?
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2020-06-26, 08:09 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Of the at least 3 VT left in the game I'm not going to take the chance that Book Wombat the confirmed one is Macavity where Valmark is quite possibily the cult leader. I mean what exactly is the case on book wombat being Macavity besides the one post I quoted of hers which seems awkward after Unavenger noted that she was copchecked?
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2020-06-26, 08:42 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Voting patterns around JeenLeen point to Wombat. So I pushed it today to see what would happen, and I got these:
"I know we need to figure out who Macavity is, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to just assume the scry is accurate, even though we know it might not be."
It's not a natural response. It's a "trying to figure out how to get out of this mess" sort of response.
It's "interesting" that me and Valmark would agree despite earlier arguments? Why? And why would that suggest we are wrong? And if you think we are scum and working together, why would we choose to go after the person who's been scried? Then you put too much effort into trying to discourage hunting for Macavity. Then you sugest me, Valmark and Bunny look like we're working together to protect Valmark. What faction do you think we are? And how many of us do you think there are?
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2020-06-26, 08:58 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
I was the first person to bring up Book Wombat as Macavity.
I think you and Valmark are cult and Bunny of Faith just went in on Valmark because momentum.
There is a real chance there are 3 cult right now.
There are 10 players - the neutrals left = 8, 2 wolves probably = 6, 2+ cult = 4 town left at most
If we vote off a town, then cult converts a town cult just wins
Town probably looses unless we hit cult today or mafia hit cult tonight.
Tinfoiling a PEEKED VT on the 1/3 chance they are Macavity makes absolutely no sense if and as town looses if we do
The fact you seem to recognize cult is one of the largest threats and you seem to have no interest in going after the most likely leader is incredibly sus
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"I know we need to hit cult soon, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to pretend town has a chance so they don't turn and vote on me"
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Aventine, explain to me town's path to victory if we don't hit cult today
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2020-06-26, 09:14 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Again, how am I the most likely head cultist? And I doubt there's three cultists seeing how 'Cult Leader' knew Jeen was Mafia on Day 2. Would have had to try to convert him to discover that.
If anything, the fact that somebody in the QT accused me of being Bombalurina when nobody could have reported results of a scry (If I'm not mistaken about my memory of the power roles) should show you that they are trying to use me as easy lynch. Or I guess somebody could have been converted and then be betraying me like gac said, but then why the concerned cat didn't offer explanation on that?
Unless you think it's all a devious ploy I guess.
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2020-06-26, 09:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Yeah the QT thing was wack I'm not focusing on it. I've already explained that 100% calling Jeen a wolf could have been cult gunning to save you and they lucky guessed a slot that was actually wolf.
Easy person to vote? Maybe? More likely IMO person who has skated by a little long.
So who is cult leader? How do we win if we don't hit cult leader today or if mafia doesn't get them tonight?
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2020-06-26, 09:37 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
So? What difference does it make that you were the first to bring it up? Why does that matter at all? And quoting that post of yours isn't doing you any favors. In it you emphasize that Wombat is totally certain to be town, then hedge by noting the possibility of Macavity. That post makes you two look like scum-buddies, and your insistence that being the first to point out the possibility of Wombat being Macavity is somehow meaningful and relevant is bizarre. You're trying too hard to get towncredit from something that could just as easily (if not more) be a scum trying for towncredit than an actual townie.
There is a real chance there are 3 cult right now.
There are 10 players - the neutrals left = 8, 2 wolves probably = 6, 2+ cult = 4 town left at most
If we vote off a town, then cult converts a town cult just wins
Town probably looses unless we hit cult today or mafia hit cult tonight.
Also, the idea that if we mislynch and the cult successfully converts they "just win" is completely wrong. The mafia still have an NK. Only under the assumption that there are currently 3 cultists (meaning the JeenLeen thing was crazy luck, much less likely than your "1/3" below), and both they successfully convert tonight and the mafia miss them with an NK, would the cult get 50% of the lynch votes. And even then, that's not an outright majority. Plus, both town and mafia have a role in the recruitment post that count as having one less vote, requiring more votes to securely control the lynch. Plus, Old Deuternomy survives one NK or conversion.
You are building an argument off a possibility, and not even one that appears to have a great chance of being true, misrepresenting it as much more probable than it actually is. And even then you have to blatantly lie in order for your scenario to look as bad as you want it to.
Tinfoiling a PEEKED VT on the 1/3 chance they are Macavity makes absolutely no sense if and as town looses if we do
The fact you seem to recognize cult is one of the largest threats and you seem to have no interest in going after the most likely leader is incredibly sus
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"I know we need to hit cult soon, but let's not look too much into that. It's better to pretend town has a chance so they don't turn and vote on me"
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Aventine, explain to me town's path to victory if we don't hit cult today
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We shouldn't "tinfoil" about Wombat being macavity because there is supposedly only a 1/3 chance of it being true. But it's totally reasonable to assume that the cult found Jeen by pure dumb luck?
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2020-06-26, 09:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
My guesses for Bombalurina are either you or Aventine, going by exclusion. I don't really find either of you likely though, nor do I believe I can push a lynch on either >.>
And it's a pretty easy way out to not consider the QT thing when it would speak for my innocence.
Anyway, it's not impossible but pretty hard to win without getting the Cult Leader- thing is, killing me is a mislynch so that won't get you anywhere. Not that you believe me.
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2020-06-26, 09:57 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Ok I'm pretty sure you are just straight cultsiding now.
Put it this way: if Wombat is not scum (which I'll put at 2/3 from your perspective AS YOU ADMIT the chance is about 1/3), in what is probably the best case scenario we end up with 2 cult, 2 wolves, 3 townies, and the neutrals going into night. Even if the cult shoots the leader we come out with 2 cult 2 wolves 3 townies and the neutral. That's not a good position, and the fact you don't feel a need to avoid it locks you in as scum. And that assumes a) wolves target the cult leader, b) cult don't have the doc c) towndoc doesn't do something stupid.
LMAO at Book Wombat being a guaranteed scum kill have you cult!peeked them macavity somehow? That's the only reason you could possibly be so confident. I mean believe what you want and it's better they flip Macavity than VT for sure but "I'll take the guaranteed scumkill" is ?!?.
The fact that you and Valmark are happy to blatantly ignore any reservations you have had with each other and pile onto a peeked VT is a big ??.
Completely pointless argument on JeenLeen and luck -- he would have been the obvious target for a cult fake outting as scum -- and from the cult perspective he would have been a 3/7? 8? chance of being scum anyways (I forget how many clears there were at that point) literally a better chance than Wombat lol.
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Actually I'm kind of coming around on you being the minion and Aventine being the leader but ?!? I don't know anymore.
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Big difference: there was other stuff that would draw cult towards targeting Jeen so it doesn't matter initially if he was a wolf or not. Cult didn't fake peek him accurately because they thought he was wolf but because he was playing anti-cult. Probability of him being wolf or not than doesn't matter for determining why the fake peek would occur.
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Aventine what positive results have come out of your D1 networking?
I'm coming back around on a thought I had d1 that Aventine's plan was just to ensure they survive the night as a scum PR (likely cult).
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2020-06-26, 10:04 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
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2020-06-26, 10:06 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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2020-06-26, 10:07 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
To be fair, I don't really have a choice- either we lynch Macavity, or mislynch me apparently. And I'm not sacrificing myself at this point in game, could lead to Town losing.
And I should point out that Macavity would still turn out as Town for Cult, according to the role description- I'd tell you it's almost guaranteed, given my own list of suspects.
And yeah, as Aventine said, that math isn't correct. I very much believe you to be not-Town, having an hard time deciding what.
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2020-06-26, 10:09 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
And I've seen absolutely no reasoning for why BookWombat is more likely as Macavity than JWL or the third remaining "VT"
But me saying this will likely confbias you further into us as a scumpair so *shrug* indeed
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Ok if both of you are fully confident on Book Wombat Macavity maybe we just go there.
Idk no one else in this game besides the literal wolves seems to be concerned about the cult (which tbh fits into what happened to me in a cult/town/wolves game on another site) and maybe I panicked a bit over exactly how bad our situation is but it is really bad I think if the cult leader isn't dead by tomorrow one way or another.
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2020-06-26, 10:19 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Random question: I assum their are games with just cult and no wolves. Do those not have night kills?
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2020-06-26, 10:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
BW exhibited one of Macavity's powers, plus voted without giving reasons nor commenting on anything. I'd have other things, but I don't really want to go reread at this time of night.
Joy claimed correctly Vanilla before the role text was public (something you noticed too- this does make you look like a buddy, funnily).
Guess I can't really prove who the third VT is- but it's not, or at least shouldn't be, BW. At the very least it fits nicely with my theory of BW being Macavity.
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2020-06-26, 10:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Ok let's look at the math calmly and slow enough I don't trip up.
WORLD A:Living (assume cult failed a recruit)
4 town 2 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral
After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:
4 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral, A
After night assuming cult doesn't miss and wolves miss cult: 2 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals, town looses this as cult and neutrals win together
After night if cult doesn't miss and wolves hit non leader cult: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals: town has a chance if they vote cult leader exactly
If cult doesn't miss and wolves hit a leader: 3 town 2 cult 1 wolves 2 neutrals. This is way up in the air and town could win
I guess Old Deuteronmy messes this up to an extent
If BW is not Macavity:
3 Town 2 Cult 2 Wolves 2 Neutral
Not going to case all of these but I think either cult or wolves win here the vast majority of the time. Let me know how town pulls this off if they do. Maybe a Old deuternomy shot onto either macavity or grizabella does it.
WORLD B: Living (assume cult got 2 recruits)
3 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral
After the vote if Book Wombat is Macavity:
3 town 3 cult 1 wolves 2 neutral: Unless wolves hit cult leader cult wins
If BW is not macavity
2 town 3 cult 2 wolves 2 neutral. IDK who wins but Old Deuteronomy would be the only town left so town looses
Ok it's a leap of faith onto BW being macavity but maybe it's our best option to have a chance TBH. It would require me putting aside what I actually think happens with JeenLeen and hoping wolves don't cult but maybe it's our only out
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Generally town has a vig or something like that else town autoloses pretty much
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Fine leap of faith it is Book Wombat
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I noticed this yeah, but who does it make me a buddy too? And not sure where I posted that I noticed this?
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Yeah I'm rereading what I've said these last pages and maybe I'm just too worried about the cult and trying to fit my worldview to that.
For reference, the cult game I mentioned above was a 72 player game where we had 4 cultists to start and we won with only 2 deaths ending with 10 cultists. No one actually cult hunted until like d3 when we pretty much had the game locked already. I'm terrified we are approaching that but maybe it's better just to go for what is in front of us while we can, but that's what the town in that game did and they got burned hard for it
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Also inb4 it's something like JWL macavity, logan and wombat cult and lol at us for fighting in that world.
But nah probably at least one of Valmark and Aventine is bad I just don't really know who
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2020-06-27, 02:06 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: The Jellicle Ball
End Of Day Three
Stories of Macavity spread from one cat to the next, with old paws teaching newcomers about his tricky ways. Paranoia built among them, until they ended up cornering one of the newer cats who they were all convinced was Macavity's most recent alias. Alas...the Hidden Paw eluded them.
Book Wombat died. They were a Vanillager.
Spoiler: Book Wombat Role PMBook Wombat/Vanillager
"All cats are jellicle cats, you see."
You have no special power. If you would be scried, and the scry would learn your role name, they are told you are Komadia.
Night Three Ends In ~48 hours
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2020-06-27, 04:17 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Oh look, the person we scried as VT was VT. No way.
I don't know why I bother telling you people things.
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2020-06-27, 04:32 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Look, I was rioting for Valmark.
Btw: Wolves, if you wanted to reach out, I'd like to know two things:
1. Can you kill someone not crossed out on my list? And help me not pick them. My current plan is to target JWL.
2. If you are telling me that, I would also like to know if you have the baner or the beast as your last wolf.
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2020-06-27, 05:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2007
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2020-06-27, 05:43 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: The Jellicle Ball
Made you a buddy because you wrote that you noticed it but seemingly ignored it to build your case for defending Book.
And you posted a bit earlier while we talked of the evenience of more then three vanillagers.
And uhm, I guess we now know for sure there are more then three vanillagers. Could it be possible that Jeen was being truthful?
I'll elaborate more on this in the morning. There is to say that I had a list of 4/5 people, and with the new knowledge this still fits nicely in, having 3/4 suspects of 4 possible villains.
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2020-06-27, 06:24 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
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2020-06-27, 07:38 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2019
Re: The Jellicle Ball
@AV: If a Town member is converted by the Cult one night, and then targetted by the Mafia another, are they reported as a Town-turned-Cult passing? Or exclusively as a Towny being targetted?
4) The game ends when only one non-neutral faction remains.
Posts saying very - very - little, votes without any clear reason, and then goes.
This is all assuming that Jeen (a confirmed Mafia member, that likely wants his 'team' to win) was being honest and the Mafia only has three members to start. I doubt it's true for that reason. Why have none of us questioned whether the Neutrals might be lying? From the start, I blindly assumed gac3 was being honest when he claimed to me in a quicktopic. But, late game, exclusively after we have gone after the most likely candidates for none-Town, and only if we're grasping for targets, I think it's fair to target flat_footed. He pretty much doesn't care enough to post or participate, and allegedly didn't even use his powers last night. All that points to a player that doesn't care if he's voted off (again, much later, we have bigger priorities right now). It's also a way to test if gac3 is lying without losing anyone talkative.
But, as I've already repeated, focus on the more likely Mafia and Cult first.
?
Valmark even pointed out my posted role matches (word for word) the real Vanillager text (that I made on the first page). Throw in the Aventine observations and your comments feel off.
What I thought happaned was it was a spillover from the last Day's vote; those other posters claimed they were suspicious of Book Wombat specifically, even then. That night went by with TheCape being Mafia targeted. Then you posted TheCape's supposed PM suggesting "Macavity might be BW or JWL, maybe". Then it spilled over into the previous day's mistrusts of Book Wombat and Macavity's ability to change names. That's the superficial analysis. TheCape and I were actually talking in a "Towncore" first day, but it never really went beyond us. With him gone, and no other Town Core established (?), I'm speculating Jenny was hit by the Cult. Otherwise, she would have knit together the beginnings of another Core by now (or maybe I'm expecting too much of her).
So, Unavenger, I'll leave you to come to your own conclusions about who's being honest. Also, we have a few surprisingly quiet players that have said little to nothing.Last edited by JoyWonderLove; 2020-06-27 at 07:50 AM.