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Thread: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-12, 08:10 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2021-09-12, 08:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-12, 08:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Ahh. Fair.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2021-09-12, 09:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
1 hour left - if you have any action to send in or last minute changes, now is the time!
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2021-09-12, 10:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
And that's the end of the Night Phase! No more actions/changes will be accepted. I'll doublecheck the actions and Day will start... eventually.
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After Jeen's exit, all rush to the room,
Of the arrested, for evidence, clue.
Nothing was found, over all settled gloom.
Day 1 seemed for nothing, all they'd been through.
Each went to their room, taking on their role,
Hoping their talents may aid in the search.
Setting to their task, they each take a stroll,
Some looking for proof, or how to besmirch.
With morning comes breakfast: bread, milk, eggs, crepe.
But not all showed up for the morning feast.
Poisoned in his room, you all find bladescape.
Found with him a man of the cloth, a Priest.
Time to accuse once more - but this time who?
To those that yet remain, begin Day 2.
bladescape and Priest Helenus, Town, were poisoned.
Day 2 Ends Tuesday, Sept. 14 at 11:30 PM EST /
Wednesday, Sept. 15 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
Wednesday, Sept. 15 at 5:30 AM CESTLast edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-09-13 at 07:57 AM.
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2021-09-12, 10:23 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Roganto start because Blade said we should look into Rogan and then Blade died. The rest of my review of day one to come.Last edited by gac3; 2021-09-14 at 02:48 PM.
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2021-09-12, 10:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I'm gonna run to do a blade ISO to see what useful info can be gained, but I'll put a quick vote on Emmy to start out. You're online, let's get some thoughts flowing, yeah?
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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My Homebrew
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2021-09-12, 11:49 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: bladescape ISOTypical early randvote.
I should probably reevaluate Mr Popo more critically at some point - having a style of play I like doesn't make them towny. But I like effort because the more effort that goes into the game, the more likely scum is to get caught, so tryharding tends to be a pretty pro-town move (even if I know full well it can be a great bluff sometimes, and Mr Popo even acknowledges exactly that).
I pulled the Snowblaze quote to see if the full context would better explain the smiley, but I'm still not really able to sus any deeper meaning behind the smiley. It's probably just that Snowblaze is being paranoid and bladescape was amused by that, but I worry I'm missing out on something that made blade suspect Snow (especially when, a few blade posts back, Snow was a town lean). Idk I'm probably just trying to read deeper into it because this ISO is surprisingly sparse of actual analysis to dig into.
Calling out Mr Popo on being very gung-ho about killing me for no publicly-stated reason, and promises more thoughts to come.
Oh well, maybe later. The next one is big enough that I'll need to break it into chunks:
Ha! I see what you did there. Don't worry blade, it'll come back around.
bladescape giving us more information about popo, but I'm not sure if it's quite as useful this time. I could hazard a guess about the reasons why, but a lot of it could make scum consider possibilities I'd rather went unconsidered, so the only one I'll state is that I think the activity level could easily be attributable to having returned to WW on this forum, with a few old familiar faces in the mix even.
*nodnod*
Murska does that a lot too. Seems to be a thing the old guard does to newer players who don't have good poker faces yet. Also probably works well on veterans who try to play as honest townies even when lying would be better for them.
what I can glean from this:
Popo is a townlean, but a risky one in blade's mind, because he's tricky. Nothing new there.
blade trusted that Snowblaze is genuine, as is Libro.
blade is lightly townleaning Xihirli based on RP, but isn't sure that's a good basis for a townlean, especially D1.
blade is concerned about gac and is lightly scumleaning him, but so far it's not really enough evidence to have earned a vote.
blade was very interested in seeing JeenLeen hang, which occurred and provokes some change in thoughts later in the ISO.
*nodnod*
If he was the kind of person who defends his D1 reads to the end of time, unwilling to consider new evidence, he wouldn't be anywhere near the kind of player you felt the need to warn us about.
Rogan did a few shifty things, even if there's people I'm rating lower. With JeenLeen gone, I've got a pressure-vote on Emmy to show up. I'd be fine going for Rogan, but for the moment I'd like to dig into the ISOs that popped up overnight - they've almost certainly got some juicy details in them that'll be fun to analyze, and there's promise of even more to come. And while I'm vaguely comfortable-ish clearing Popo on activity alone for the moment, I don't feel comfortable doing that for more than one person at a time...and gac isn't the "recently returned to our little community" guy, so he gets the cross-examination first. Rogan still definitely in my scum leans atm though.
The only one that didn't get a mention in that initial "my leans" RP letter is Rogan, who has since attracted attention. Nothing particularly surprising there.
Bolded the section I feel is relevant. A rogan reevaluation/cross-examination needs to happen - idk if it'd be a smoking gun pointed at Popo, but the change in position just because blade spoke out against Rogan isn't a good look.
This was a quick little exchange explaining how one weird thing blade noted about Popo wasn't actually all that weird.
Step 1) Dig into gac3's ISOs and see if anything feels like scum trying to look like town.
Step 2) Re-ISO Rogan, re-evaluate.
Step 3) ISO Popo properly and see what can be gleaned.
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2021-09-13, 12:25 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Somehow I feel like I know less D2 than I did D1, I felt so confident about Jeen that him flipping town made me question all my reads. I'll probably try to reevaluate everyone from scratch, starting with the people who already have votes.
Now that AV and Popo are agreeing with each other, I'm getting a little paranoid that they're both wolves, based mostly on how screwed we'd probably be if that was the case. Less of an accusation and more of a "Hey, wouldn't it be horrible if...?".
Oh, and the day on the "converted" time for EoD is wrong (but the date is right so it doesn't really matter).Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-13 at 12:27 AM.
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2021-09-13, 12:54 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
RIP bladescape. It is possible for you to be town after all.
Hmm. I’ll start by pokingBook Wombat.
I feel like there’s exactly one wolf in Rogan/Batcathat. Re-evaluating both of those is my first task for today.
Willing to help with unpairings at some point but I’ll be busy IRL this morning so analysis will have to wait.Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-09-14 at 11:08 AM.
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 30
Extended Signature
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2021-09-13, 01:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I've cut down the post to just the ISOs to...demonstrate what I'd like to talk about. I'm gonna go through these ISO reactions, underlining things I want to mention.
What a fun read! Oh, what's the underlining about? That's the analysis. That's it. Most of this post? It's not analysis of the ISOs, it's summaries of the ISOs. Analysis is "here's what happened, and here's what I think about it". Most of what's happened, we don't even really get a "I'm not sure if this really says anything about the gamestate", it just gets stated and he moves on to describing the next post.
Here's the analysis isolated for our viewing pleasure:
Literally no analysis, but at least understandable since Supagoof doesn't seem to be participating.
Libro: Counterclaimed Mr. Popo's. [...] Given the fact that the countess is a confirmed town role and they have not been counterclaimed, seems they are likely telling the truth.
Xi: Voting me makes sense though a wolf could easily do that too. The defense of Jeen was fair and looks even better after the flip. [...] Overall I got town read here.
Bladescape: They also stated that its not normally open/close and then stated that I am either red or Jeen is. Not sure what makes them confident that that is the case. [...] Then two posts stating we should look at Rogan if Jeen flips green... Well Jeen flipped blue so, I assume that still applies. Will come back to Blade. Need to read the long fluff post before I give a verdict on if I think they are town or wolf or what.
If scum was doing something like...ISOing half the players in the middle of the night phase, and they know that a particular person is going to die, they're not going to scumread that player. They know the dead player will flip townie, and they don't wanna be scumreading somebody who's about to be confirmed town because it makes people trust the rest of their reads less. They don't want to provoke an argument with dangerous townies by disagreeing with them on reads too much, but they don't wanna look like they're pocketing them either, so the safest place is a middle ground of:
"I'm not sure how to feel about that person I guess I'll look later OH NO THEYRE DEAD AND IT TURNED OUT THEYRE TOWN well let's at least honor the dead townie's wishes"
gac3's analysis of bladescape honestly reads to me like "the only thing I've got a serious opinion on here is that blade was being inconsistent, but Popo and AV are both townreading blade and I don't want them jumping down my throat, and I don't want the others not trusting my reads, so I'll play it safe for the moment". It's very wishy-washy and doesn't even really have a reason to be.
JeenLeen: ...
Book Wombat: Presented the possibility that the Princess or Countess is not in use. Pretty sure this is narrator confirmed to not be the case? Suggests the countess should sacrifice their self for the princess after the reveal. Agreed but also, the reveal isn't necessary for that. [...] "I didn't know Mr. Popo called me out. I wouldn't have voted them had I known." "I might be lying to appear town." [...] This would be more suspicious but... this is pretty much bar for the course for Book. However they seem very nonchalant about their "hey, maybe I am a wolf" which does stand out as something I don't remember them doing before. So maybe a wolf who is trying a balls out "hey guys, I'm wolfy" strategy or just Book not caring how their posts look. I respect either but am unsure which it is.
Wish-wash-wish-wash
Gac3: So far has not contributed anything useful and only seems to be concerned with defending themselves, not helping town. Not a good look and not quite their normal style. Definitely suspicious. But also they have claimed privately so that's a point in their favor, assuming I can believe them.
FoS on gac3 for all this Information Without Analysis (and as night-talking to bait people into night-debates, too). Slight FoS on Mr for somehow clearing gac based on all this nothingness.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-13 at 01:14 AM.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-13, 01:43 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I'd appreciate if you would actually do a review on me instead of voting on me in grounds of "The person who wanted a review got attacked"
But I am going to assume you plan to include that into your next post.
Personally, I won't be able to write much today, but intend to do so tomorrow. I have to work today, which costs time and energy. Right now I am on my way to work and will use the time in the train for this post from mobile.
Spoiler: Tangent
I can guarantee you I will never lie about my RL in order to further my position in this game. It's something deeply unsportsmanlike. My impression is that there is a lady's and gentleman agreement to not lie about your RL, so I will always trust you if you say you are busy and won't judge a lack of activity harshly. But it's not a get out of jail for free card either.
While there was no full review for myself, someone mentioned he (or she?) Thought I would change my stances too often. This feels like an unfair judgment.
Spoiler: Explanation. Better read this after you looked at my day 1 again?
I changed my stance on one player, namely Mr Popo. But this changes always were the result of new info.
At first, he claimed a unique, unchanging Town only role. I won't vote there.
His behavior is alien for me. He rings multiple alarm bells for me. There is a soft counter claim. Still, nothing definite, so he stays in the group of people I am not going to lynch.
Next thing a counter claim. Popo lost the reason I believe him to be town. That's the last drop in an ocean of red flags. I vote him.
Next thing is an explanation. It's multiple experienced players agreeing about the explanation. It's not an explanation I like, but I can see it as a possibility and I don't want to tunnel on a villager again. So I unvote and reconsider.
Spoiler: About Jeen
He was a good target. He even said so himself. He could not give me a good explanation for his bad plan. It was / is a bad Plan! It won't get better since it was proposed by a villager.
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Spoiler: More RL stuff
****! I hate being invested in this game soo much. I missed my station (again) while being busy with the game.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-13, 01:54 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Batcathat
- randomly voting me.
- joking about killing AV.
- townreading Xihirli. I like this, it’s some good in-depth analysis. The paranoia at the end could be seen as hedging but BCH is paranoid in general so I don’t think it’s wolfy here.
- fluff.
- time zone stuff.
- paranoia about me. I feel like that’s the sort of thing wolves would want to encourage... but, like I said earlier, Batcathat is paranoid in general. (I think they’re more likely to be paranoid as town - though I’ve never actually played with town!BCH before.)
- mechanics speculation. (Side-note: that quoted BW post is pinging me a lot.)
- more mechanics.
- yet more mechanics. Although I’d like to note that it’s mostly in response to other people’s mechanics talk, offering clarification/reactions. Which is fine.
- first to vote Jeen; obviously that doesn’t earn as much towncred given the flip but I still think it’s mildly towny as it was a valid point and one I agreed with.
- reads list; nothing particularly controversial but there’s enough there to stop me invoking “reads list without many reads”.
- post 140 was my major point of suspicion. Mostly because of the suggestion of alternate wagons but lack of an attempt to actually create one.
- lots of agreeing with me. Which is fine. Probably not trying to pocket me. They didn’t respond to my asking them to start an alternate wagon.
- starting day two with more paranoia.
I actually feel pretty good about BCH coming out of this. They’re a townread, especially if skimming through recent games indicates I’m right about the paranoia.
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Based on recent posts, Rogan/gac3 not w/w. One unpairing done!I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 30
Extended Signature
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2021-09-13, 02:28 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
- Location
- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I have baby in arm
typing with mouse + onscreen keyboard
i began game as priest
n1 i was changed to king
i have a night chat with someone villagery, they can confirm
but no need
keep princess hidden and safe
countess keeps her safe when outed
secrecy keeps her safe when countess dies
sit back, remain calm
analyse day one + n1
i believe in you
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my target n1 was supagoof
action doesnt resolve because i was forcibly kinged
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game only has 2 priests max
blades priest at game start
popo priest at game start
i claimed d1
there will be no counterclaims
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2021-09-13, 02:44 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2021-09-13, 03:04 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
- Location
- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
i'd add this to the above as an aside
Spoiler: popo's coachingi dont want to police when people vote esp when some may never log back in some days
but it is good practice to read your suspect and try to see how they can be a villager
before deciding your vote is 'to kill' rather than to to nominate or placeholder or indicate suspicion
be good jurors
look for possible defence
be careful who you stab with your sword to draw blood
vote for placehold or indicate suspicion fine
avoid final judgment until you have tried 2 see it both ways
can your suspect still be a townie?
we get it right today and town wins a lot
if you already did the work, present your case
entire town is the jury
you prosecute they decide
if you find a townie come forth
present your case
be defense lawyer
entire town is the jury
you town case your townie
they decide if your case is valid enough to risk game on
1 mafia everyone town reads wins game for scums so that route is very risky
but you can force wolves to bus when you were right enough on several townies
and they cant even get town read for bussing because it was forced onto them
even a partial solve of townies all correct forces very suboptimal lynch votes onto mafias
and forces suboptimal murders they have to try or they just lose
but there needs to be ZERO mafia in your town pile or you lose
its risky
be careful
accuse mafia correctly is direct pressure
defend town correctly is indirect pressure
sufficient amounts of both BREAK the mafia team's back
be accurate now
quality >>>>>> quantity / rushing judgment
still i believe in this town
you have got this! Youre all awesome
thank u for hearing me out
be excellent jurors
that is town's top responsibility
hugs to all from papa popo and daughter
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i thought it was a hit until it was basically 2 late and it was still better than me hitting gac who was counterwagon, because jeen never princess
gac townread overnight and can be princess
and other wagon was me
if i tipped i wouldnt have been able to reassess gac3 and id cost town ANOTHER wrong suspect in death
he is clean 4 sure imo
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emmy necromancer
be very solvy villager today or this vote is to kill
blow me away, be top tier solving
find townies say why
find wolves say why
be the towniest you youve ever been
so my vote moves to a wolf and you helped make it happen
its never too late to solve for town and win even if top suspect
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2021-09-13, 03:31 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Avatar Vecna: 13 posts. Throwaway vote. Addresses weirdness people said, focuses a lot on inactives. Responded to my "I forgot the game" and focused on the game related part to put suspicion on me instead of the utterly unrelated forgetting. Still suspected me but for better reasons than that I had already posted. Gave reasonable reads. Really lots of pointing out peoples mistakes and weirdness and generally contributing. I'm not going to finish going point by point. They are fairly town seeming. The one exception is that I cannot remember Wolf AV acting much differently. So blue but not as deep as others. Even since I started this did a better job analyzing my post than Mr. Popo did. So more points in their favor.
Snowblaze:(Using orange to distinguish from vote) 14 posts. Snow starts with a big swing, asking the only two definitely town roles to claim. They are not the only ones to mention "what if the roles aren't in the game" but didn't Cape specify exactly what roles were and weren't going to be left off? Am I imagining this. This "claim" plan is the type of thing that usually is perceived as not looking good on town but its usually more "bad town move" than "wolf move". Though they do actually spend their first several posts going "mechanics mechanics mechanics", "oh yeah. I can get behind not talking about mechanics." "mechanics mechanics mechanics". "Rogan's treatment of me is wolfy... Mechanics mechanics..." Honestly, I know it's day one, but Snow normally seems... better than this? Don't they normally push people for reads? Give detailed reasons for their own? They aren't. They are all not talking about other people or getting defensive or giving a single sentence that amounts to "I townread Popo." It feels very not snowblaze.
Batcathat 16 posts. Took a few posts but then they offered some real insight into Xi. Then some noncommittal paranoia about Snow. Some mechanics questions/comments. Called out Jeen for some questionable logic centered around "lynch them to see if their plan is a wolf ploy". Gave a read list. Really started picking up on weighing in there at the end. Overall nothing that reads too wolfy and plenty of reasons to suspect townieness but their contribution/post ratio is a bit lower than I expected. Not my top town read but I feel okay about them.
Rogan: 28 posts:..... I still need to do but am getting too tired. Will do tomorrow.
Mr. Popo: 33 posts when I started this. Let's get this straight, I'm not going to go post by post and say what they have done. They have started conversation and pushed us. While it might take some getting used to for me to adapt to their style, it is so refreshing and gets conversation going. I've not seen them as wolf but without a good reason to lynch they should be kept around for a little whether town or wolf. Just don't take anything they say as gospel truth or anything.. Though I think they gave me far too much credit for my first batch of posts. I'm not all that good at the analysis.
These got longer so i decided to skip the full summary plan I used with the light posters.
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Oddly enough I like AC's reaction to my reads or whatever better than Popos
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2021-09-13, 04:01 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: Rogan ISOThis looks worse in hindsight than it actually is. "The idea is not bad" is almost certainly untrue for a variety of reasons...that got thoroughly discussed after this post was made. Rogan isn't looking at all the criticisms that were made and going "I think its a good plan with risks". This is also before a lot of the discussion about how we really shouldn't be giving hints at who is or isn't princess. However, I think that "don't make it easier for scum to find the princess" would be a straightforward thing people knew to start out, and didn't have to be told, so saying "I'm not the princess" is still a bad move here, even though it hadn't been made explicit in-thread why doing so is a bad idea.
Everything from "minor negative points" onward feels like a good take - a little reserved but not willing to jump to ridiculous conclusions on flimsy evidence. This is a good early D1 take.
Again, mixed feelings, Snow. On the one hand, you are opposed to a mass claim. On the other hand... I don't like this!
But I like Snows songs as well, so another reason to avoid going after her.
Rogan: "Yeah I don't like that"
That's a good take.
Rogan: "I like the songs so slight townie points"
...that's not how leans work. RP tends to be pleasant, but it's also NAI.
I think you are correct about the first part (King, Prince).
You are however wrong about the second part (Baron). Snow even pointed this out in her plan. The baron can't connect anybody to this core. The princess can't be targeted after claiming. The Countess will be blocked by the handmaidens. They protect against the kill, but also prevent most other powers.
If the wolves get the countess night 1, will you change your oppinion about Snow?
Hard agree here. Xi is on my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game.
Dear Prince Roland
I bring you terrible news! The Queen has tried to assassinate the Princess. But - praise the gods - the Princess was not hurt and the Queen was arrested. She is avaiting trial in the royal dungon. However, the danger is not over yet. She still has some allies hidden in the castle. Currently, we are locked in here. I hope, at least my letter will reach you, so you can learn of the events from a trusted source.
The Princess has gone into hiding, however there is wisper she might reveal herself soon and place herself under the protection of the Countess and her trusted Handmaidens. One of the other guests of the palace, Mr Popo, claims to be the Count. Nobody objected to this till now, and I tend to believe him. Such a lie would be too easy to proove wrong.
Personaly, I suspectAvatarVecnabut I have to admit, I never liked her very much. Some time ago, I even dreamed of killing her with lightning, but she was innocent that night. Strange dream, realy, but I disgress. Pardon, Mylord.
I also don't like this stranger named BookWombat. A gambler, for sure. Maybe I can use my contacts at the servants to gain some more inforamtion about him tonight.
Yours truely,
Ambassador Rogan
1 vote isn't a wagon, especially this early D1. Randvotes are expected to be kinda scattered around by default - it's when they start stacking up that you generally need reasons. You weren't the first person to vote me, but you were the one that made me a wagon.
I want to hear from Rogan why that list of four is people he wouldn't vote at this point in time.
"What does it matter that I started a wagon for basically no real reason?"
That's not exactly a strong defense, buddy. And yes, I would be saying this even if I wasn't the wagon in question. It's not a good look to start a wagon just cuz.
NAI.
Now we're clearing people based on time zone similarities? I know I maybe shouldn't be harping on this so much because it's day 1, but this is the fifth person on Rogan's list of "people I won't consider voting today", and four of them are for reasons not really related to the game state at all. The only one that is is...he won't vote himself.
I like this post, it's similar to blade talking about popo. We've got a couple players here who haven't played with Snowblaze before, and making sure they know she's got a hell of a silver tongue is a pro-town move. It's not even scumreading her, it's just acknowledging the possibility as a result of Snow's own skill.
Mech clarification, NAI.
Another post that look worse because of hindsight. Cao hadn't yet clarified that princess can hard claim without hardclaiming (and Cao do not reply to that bold "hardclaiming" as if I were claiming princess, I'm not doing a claim so it doesn't need to be confirmed or denied). Anyway, while I appreciate Rogan being concerned about outing a townie for no reason, I don't think the concern about fakeclaiming is warranted - Princess is the one role in the game where a counterclaim can be proven correct without the need for the one of the claimants to die first.
This feels pretty genuine to me. Rogan seems legitimately frustrated with the idea of somebody essentially benefitting from the princess' power without actually having it, and how the only way for the real princess to call them out would be to counterclaim (probably a bolded hardclaim), thus ruining the princess' ability to be networked with, or to vote on things going forward. It would suck for town if that happened. Luckily, as the princess, following in the footsteps of Princess Popo, I've made it illegal for anybody to pretend that they're not also the princess, which resolves this problem handily. Now, nobody gets the protection of the princess role unless they're doing a bolded hardclaim with Cao confirming. Still, this is solid townie points for Rogan IMO.
I'm actually not certain it is. OP seemed to imply that Princess/Countess are always in the game, and it would be strange if a Princess in the discard pile could get "roleswitched" by the Prince onto a player who actually has a role, but couldn't be roleswitched by the Prince after that because the Princess is immune to the Prince's power? That doesn't make sense to me. Granted, none of this is explicit, so I can understand confusion surrounding it.
More of the same genuineness.
Mech clarification.
A willingness to push back on Popo is something I can respect, but I'm not sure how to feel about it. Up until now, Rogan has basically been voting me in an attempt to get me to speak up more and participate, which is good. But now he's laying into the other guy on my wagon for having no stated reason and yet being very thirsty for my blood...why? It's a good question for somebody to ask, and more than a few people asked it, but Rogan seems like the wrong person to be asking. It comes across like rogan thinks he looks like he's pocketing Popo, so he wants to create some artificial friction there.
Voting me for inactivity is valid, but it's also easy for anybody to do, so NAI.
This is a pretty solid argument for not trusting Popo on principle D1. That absolute approach to leans and votes putting people off...that's definitely understandable. But at the same time, it's also a point a wolf could make without risking much of anything. "You seem too sure of yourself" is NAI.
This is that clarification of why people were in Rogan's "not getting voted today" list I asked for earlier. Nothing here really strikes me as AI though (beyond the "clearing people on silly reasons" thing I already whined about, of course).
This seems to assume we've got a three-wolf game. It might be true, given the lack of a proper seer, and the number of people who can screw around with roles, but the math balances against town if there's four or five wolves instead (which I think Popo already pointed out in response to this post?).
So, I think we are on the same page here. But I am a bit sceptical about one thing:
You need to be right about those 9 Persons. If there is only one traitor and you are not willing to reevaluate? You have lost before the game is over. Thats a bit scary, in my oppinion.
Therefore, I would like to avoid locking somebody as town this early. But as long as you are willing to change your mind when new evidence arrives, I'm fine with your current list.
About your Role and Snows Plan... I might have an idea what you mean, but I might be wrong. And I will try to keep my mouth shut about this idea, unless someone else would realy like to talk about it.
And I totaly agree, it's much better to be right for the wrong reasons, than to be wrong for whatever the reasons may be. But the best thing seems to be getting the right answer for the right reasons.
But yeah, despite those differences in style, I am looking forward to solving this mystery on your side.
But now, I think I will have to go to bed. 1:45AM... Good day / night / whatever the time of the day it might be where you live. This is for everybody. Except the traitors. They won't have a good night, now that their leader, the evil queen was arrested.
Most of this comes from a well-meaning place, I think. Standard procedure in games: if you get a claim, and then a counterclaim, you test the first claimant with a lynch. The exception is made because bold-hardclaiming princess would be a potential out for Popo here, and (at least the way Rogan thinks about the princess claim) Popo has already legitimately claimed princess. Sure, the princess should only bold-hardclaim when they're on the chopping block, but Popo is now counterclaimed by a locktown role - it's frankly a miracle he didn't die yesterday.
...all that being said, it's also incorrect for one reason and I'm not sure if it's an honest mistake or scum trying to pretend this is how the game works:
Well, my idea would be: Mr Popo didn't know if the countess was an active role or not.Originally Posted by OP
I think this is just a mistake cuz Rogan is kinda new, it's the kinda thing even I didn't realize initially - I generally thought it would be an awful move for scum to fakeclaim Countess, but I didn't really have a logical explanation for why exactly I thought it was stupid.
I don't know why Rogan thinks the princess claim was serious, but I guess it's not as suspicious as I saw it the last time I looked at it. He's been surprisingly consistent.
*looks at Popo post where he claims to have been priest D1*
I'm sure he had a chuckle over that line.
There are other assumptions I don't like. The votes for libro came before the soft counter claim. I get flashbacks for PJ. It's like me, as vig shooting AV, the Seer night 1. Sure, it didn't look good for the me on first glance. But I had no way to know I would kill the Seer. (Okay, I could have trusted the Manson claim and ask him in private if I should shoot AV, but I didn't want to claim right away)
Xi, the one player pushing a vig lynch, was a wolf.
I continue to get bad impressions from you, Mr Popo. Some of them might be paranoia. But there are so many things speaking against you, I can not, in good faith, ignore them. Sorry.
Today is the day for considering inactives for the lynch, to prevent greater losses...but only if we're not feeling pretty sure about a different lynch.
I sat up in my seat wide-eyed at the first line cuz I thought it was about Rogan discussing Popo (ie "I never asked you to claim what are you talking about") and then i saw the second line. I need to calm down, ISOs are breaking my brain lol
But the better move of course is going for somebody suspicious.
Currently unwilling to lynch:
Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BCH.
They actively gave me reasons to want them alive.
Not happy about a lynch for Emmy or Rouge.
They are inactive and therefore, a lynch would not reveal a lot.
AV starts to get more active, which I see as a win. We disagree about some things (and it still would be funny to see the curse in action) but I think there are better targets right now.
Jeen... I will have to look at his posts in more detail. But I would like to avoid doing so from mobile.
I would like to hear more from blades, but I won't put pressure there right now. He said he was busy IRL, which is something I can accept at the moment.
It's waffling, but it's waffling between "voting somebody Rogan genuinely thinks is scum" and "voting somebody Rogan thinks will give town lots of info to go off". That's a definite struggle. I guess I could see a wolf making this without too much trouble, but it feels more like a townlean to me. Gut feeling but eh.
NAI.
Medium Town Lean. Initially the posts I was reacting to seemed very anti-Popo (which seemed like a very bad take to me), but in the wider context of Rogan's ISO, it's clearly part of an established reaction to the idea of people fakeclaiming princess. There's a lot of good stuff in this ISO, and the bad stuff isn't that hard to write off as mistakes of a newer player, or a difference in playstyle, or just as looking worse in hindsight than it actually was in the moment. Still doesn't mean I'm comfortable writing off the bad stuff, though.
I can see why Popo had Rogan as hard town lean near EoD1 for having "the towniest attitude" or whatever it is he said. Of course, then later when blade said Rogan should be revisited, Popo's position changed to Rogan being on the suspect list (and that was even before bladescape flipped town).
I think the Popo ISO should be quite interesting, but I've also been up far too long. I'll get to it after I've gotten at least a nap.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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My Homebrew
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2021-09-13, 04:36 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
No, I think it is. The rules says "If the game begins while no one has the Princess" which seems to indicate that it's possible that no one is Princess.
I'm at work, so more reactions and reads of my own will have to wait (no one tell my boss how much I already think of this game at work ). As a side note, Popo having a baby makes me even more impressed about his activity and energy. I'm single and childless but not even half as active.
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2021-09-13, 05:32 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Aw. I was enjoying not being suspected.
Meh... some of the points in gac3's post are fair, others not so much.
- Caoimhin specified which roles would exist, but Princess/Countess could have been in the unused roles and not exist until swapped in by a Prince.
- After "I can get behind talking about mechanics" the only mechanical posts I made were an explanation of my maths and correcting Jeen's statement about the Baron networking.
- I'll admit I was... kind of slacking a bit yesterday. A combination of being consensus town and Mr Popo doing so much analysis I guess led me to sit back and let things unfold maybe more than I normally would.
- I can't be bothered to self-ISO again to see how much I actually contributed but I'm pretty sure it's more than is suggested. I remember saying I found you/Jeen/Wombat wolfy and wasn't too confident in townreading bladescape/Xihirli.
- I wouldn't say I've been too defensive - she says, partway through a wallpost defending herself. But there's a difference between responding to accusations and being defensive. I'm doing the former.
Anyway, I'm on mobile and have shaky internet, but I should be back to ISO Rogan this afternoon.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 30
Extended Signature
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2021-09-13, 07:31 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
As I got older, the people remembered the story but forgot me. I got to settle back into anonymity and everyone else went back to living under your shadow as if it meant nothing.
Until that day.
May I just disagree vehemently here? Very easy for a wolf to be like "ooh! town cred!" when a non-wolf is headed for death. If I'm a wolf, I know Jeen isn't. The fact that I was right is almost irrelevant to the soundness of my argument here.
Spoiler: Oh and alsoA friend actually wrote this, though I helped edit. I'll chat with them if they want me to link any of you to their linkedin after thisSpoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2021-09-13, 07:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
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2021-09-13, 08:49 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Okay, back.
I townread Xihirli now.
gac3 is... probably my biggest problem to figure out right now. My first thought when I saw their ISOs last night was "that's an awful lot of IIOA"; I still agree with AV's interpretation over Mr Popo's (though I should probably reread the latter's explanation, I only really skimmed it earlier. Though today's seemed a bit better. I think I need to see their thoughts on Rogan before I make a judgement on that.
Going to go and do that Batcathat meta-dive I mentioned earlier, then I'll stop procrastinating and ISO Rogan.
- - - Updated - - -
Read through Mr Popo's gac3 townread. It seems to me like he's reading a bit too much into stuff gac3 isn't really saying. But it might be I'm just not crazy (in a good way) enough to get it.
- - - Updated - - -
Okay, having skimmed through Afterlife: welcome to my town core, Batcathat.
The other residents are Libro, Mr Popo, Xihirli and... to add AV or not to add AV, that is the question... yeah. Let's do it. AV can be town, for today at least.
That leaves gac3/BW/Rogan/Emmy/Supagoof/rogue.
Three wolves in there? Is that plausible?
- - - Updated - - -
gac3 isn't w/w with Rogan or Supagoof, so either
a) my towncore is wrong
b) the team is exactly Book Wombat/Rogan/Supagoof
c) there's a wolf in the inactives
Of which c) is the most probable imo.
I'm normally against "lynch the inactives" but I think this game might be an exception.
That being said I'm not voting for Emmy rn. Partly because she's already lead wagon, and partly because I don't want to mislynch her after last game.
(Also is it bad that just the act of creating a POE makes me paranoid it's wrong? Probably. As long as I re-evaluate every day it's still a good strategy, though.)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 30
Extended Signature
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2021-09-13, 09:55 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Meh, I can't be bothered to push through my utter lack of motivation to ISO Rogan. I'll go reread the thread, see if I find anything I've missed or new unpairings within the POE.
- - - Updated - - -
Tired and slowly losing focus. I'll take a break. But first:
Things had, indeed, gone wrong. Not only had an innocent guard been arrested, the conspirators had poisoned that nice noble who'd praised her yesterday.
She could be next. And she really didn't want to die, especially when - no. She refused to think about it. She was not going to die.
And the best way to make sure that happened was to find the queen's followers. There would be no more quiet observation. She was going to have them arrested. Whatever it took.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 30
Extended Signature
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2021-09-13, 11:03 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2006
- Location
- Da Goof (x3)..Is On Fire!
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
This would be correct, as I don't check my PC very often on the weekends. Need to get back into the habit of checking the site from my phone.
Worse though is I did not get a night action in. So I'm sitting here guessing based only on the townreads. I likely would have targeted Rogan because other people I would have targeted (who are Snow - because she is very good on both sides of the coin in these games, BCH - because he has peeked my interest as being very good in these games, or Mr. Popo - let's see what the new guy is doing) I would choose not to target right away since being second to lowest on action resolution would likely have resulted in no result - given the interference and such.
I will happily thrown myself on the sword for such a misstep, as that does move forward with what my role is - guarding the princess. But since I can do more good alive then dead, let's see who is pinging as suspect this time after I have a chance to catch-up in more detail...
- - - Updated - - -
Ok, having read through today (because I need more time to read through everything that happened after I stepped away day 1) I've got to agree with a lot of stuff Snowblaze is saying. So, to help
Rogan- you're the next contestant on "What are you up too?"
Because I'm not with gac3, but I'm not against him, nor am I with Book Wombat/Rogan - so I choose Rogan for 2 reason.
1. I would have looked into him night one, but failed, so I might as well find out today.
2. I'm definitely not with him, but I agree with Snowblaze that hidden amongst the inactives is a likely case.
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2021-09-13, 11:37 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Struggling to parse your second reason there: Rogan isn’t one of the inactives. Those are EmmyNecromancer and rogue_alchemist, neither of whom have posted at all.
Good luck catching up with day one, and I look forward to seeing more thoughts once you have.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 18
Games as town: 28.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 30
Extended Signature
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2021-09-13, 01:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
We had started telling stories, sharing secrets. I can’t remember who started it now, it might have even been me. They were innocent enough. One girl described how she had stolen a bottle of wine out of her father’s old cellar, hoping that out of the dozens he wouldn’t notice one go missing. Regrettably, it had been some rare bottle they were saving as a twenty-year anniversary treat.
They noticed.
I'd be happy to join in on EmmyNecromancer since she apparently was online but isn't posting.
Like if she's trying to fly under the radar, it's not working, but say something please.Last edited by Xihirli; 2021-09-13 at 01:19 PM.
Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
https://www.patreon.com/everskendra
I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2021-09-13, 01:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I ended up with less time than I thought. I'll just update my earlier list for now and will hopefully have time to reread some posts in greater detail later tonight or tomorrow.
Also, a purely technical question for the more experienced players (which is pretty much all of you)... what's the easiest way to gather all of a player's posts so far? Going page by page allows me to quote all the posts I'm looking for but it's kinda slow while using the search function I can find all at once but it seems I still have to click them to quote them or read the entire post. Am I missing some better method?
- gac3 — Hard to say, I keep kinda flipping back and forth. Definitely someone I have to look at in greater detail.
- AvatarVecna — Feels even more town than before but nothing solid.
- Xihirli — I'm still leaning town and for mostly the same reasons. Arguing against her own credibility for defending Jeen is funny but I feel like its something she'd do whether town or wolf.
- Batcathat — Probably less trusted now but even more stunningly handsome.
- Book Wombat — Pretty much same as gac.
- Rogue_Alchemist — No idea at this time.
- Snowblaze — Still leaning town, though maybe less than before. I agree with gac about Snow maybe not acting quite like herself, but her explanation is decent, so I remain unsure.
- Libro — Pretty much guaranteed town at this point.
- EmmyNecromancer — No idea at this time. I'm a little vary of voting for her, just because I remember how useful her inactivity was for us (that is, the wolves) last game. Though in that case she had posted, even if it was very little and rather cryptic, so it's not quite the same situation.
- Supagoof — Good to see that he's active again but not really any read on him yet. Wonder what it says about my self-esteem that Goof calling me good at these games makes me suspicious?
- Mr. Popo — Still leaning town, I think? I should reread his many posts but the fact I haven't played with him before in combination with his odd (if entertaining) style makes him hard to read.
- Rogan — Yet another I'm flip-flopping on.
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2021-09-13, 02:51 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2006
- Location
- Da Goof (x3)..Is On Fire!
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Just agreeing with your logic (since I had note caught up with day 1 yet), not saying Rogan was an inactive. I guess I should have stated that point clearer. Still - not 100% sure on Rogan. I would love to hear more from him.
What can I answer for you? I'm an open book.
Day 1 - I posted early and got 2 in before I wandered off. Been called Sugapoof before, probably will be again. Also, if you're old school enough, my alter-ego is Graklok. Sorry I didn't give much more read then those 2 posts day one. Because I am old school, I was used to having more then 1 game at a time, so back in the day - I was either switching between multiple games which forced me to be here posting more often, or narrating them, or both. I am attempting to get back into checking more often as it requires more effort now then it did with multiple games. Odd, but that way worked for me. Not used to the new style - which is my fault after being gone for about a decade. Would have thought to get back into the cadence again with Afterlife, but hard to do when I got lynched day 2.
So - on the "don't look at the 3-card monte" game Mr. Popo is playing, and after reading his dizzying/epic novel amount of posts, he is pinging as sus still on my radar. Might be trying to do sooo much song and dance that you're so busy watching the show, you aren't paying any attention to what's going on backstage. I do love the logic he puts into it, and can see some meta-reasoning in it as well. I don't trust him, but I don't distrust him yet right now either. Ponders about him and Snowblaze working together to mask each others scent. I may just point at him for forcing me to read so much.
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2021-09-13, 02:56 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I kinda like the fact that I usually seem a bit suspicious but not enough to warrant a lynch.
Voting for EmmyNecromancer too I guess?
Vote Count:
Rogan (2): gac3, Supagoof
EmmyNecromancer (4): AvatarVecna, Mr Popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
Posted but didn't vote (2): Batcathat, Rogan
No posts today (3): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist, Libro
Out (2): JeenLeen, bladescapeFleeting dreams of paper wings.
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