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Thread: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-16, 06:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
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My Homebrew
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2021-09-16, 06:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Now I feel a little worse about gac. Following along with suspecting me while also questioning it enough to look good after I flip could be wolfy. Or just being unsure, I can certainly empathize.
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2021-09-16, 07:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-09-16, 09:16 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2021-09-16, 09:57 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
So, each Night, you are allowed to submit a Night action. If the Night action fits your current Role it goes off as intended, if it does not match your Role, you will get a response similar to "Invalid number of targets" (Side note, I have a standard message for an invalid target, I just don't remember the exact wording atm).
I hadn't thought of this possibility but technically you could submit an action for a role you don't have, hoping you will have it by the time you would act. I don't see any reason to rule against it so, *shrug* go ahead.
To make sure the rules in the specific situation you outlined are clear: I flip a coin to decide which Prince will resolve first (in case they interact in a funny way, like this). I would do the same thing even if one of them is currently unused. I should have specified that in the Prince section, but only mentioned it in the Unused Role Example buried in a spoiler.
Last edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-09-16 at 10:09 PM.
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2021-09-16, 10:57 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
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- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Suppose they were using it in the other rational way, which is to be self protecting.
If that were true, then they would not have died last night.
For you to be town, Book needs to have been using their power to not guard the countess claimant, or himself, or bladescape, or me, because my powers were stolen that same night.
And I am waiting for others to come forward with some anomalous result where they targeted someone night one and their action did not resolve.
Unless that happens, I have no reason to suspect that Book targeted anyone but the most rational candidates, himself or the Countess.
Since he died N2, he wasn't targeting himself.
It wouldn't be a slam dunk case, but, your reactions under questioning by AV don't help. You essentially gave up, it seemed. I will check again.
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2021-09-16, 10:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
FWIW, I'm not sure if it was unstated or not true this game, but typically baners either can't self-bane, or can't bane the same person two nights in a row, either of which would explain why BW was vulnerable N2 even if they didn't want to protect Libro. Additionally, you got King'd the first night, didn't you? Handmaid can't block the King, or the Princes.
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2021-09-16, 11:57 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Sep 2021
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- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Yep, started as priest, targeted supagoof N1, action did not resolve, was forcibly changed to King.
So the thing is, that means whoever started with King is mafia.
And Supagoof started as handmaiden, apparently?
Checking.
For some reason I read a second handmaiden claim somewhere on skim, and we have a dead one.
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Watching kiddo for next 3 hours.
Trying to post and solve but interruptions are nigh constant.
Sigh.... I may be largely inactive the latter half of this day. After sleep is work.
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2021-09-17, 12:51 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Xihirli is the one claiming to have started as a Handmaiden, iirc Supagoof is claiming to have always been a guard.
Anyway. Here are the arguments against wolf!Batcathat:
- I still haven’t found a strong motivation for them to fakeclaim the clear on Libro
- I don’t see why they’d kill BW given that Batcathat would always win a thunderdome between those two
- Batcathat’s play is significantly different from Afterlife, in which they were a wolf
Whereas the requirement for town!BCH is for BW to have targeted someone other than Libro night one.
...meh, stuff it,Supagoofis probably a wolf regardless of Batcathat’s alignment.
Reads lists appear to be the thing now, so:
Libro
AV
Mr Popo
Rogan
gac3
Xihirli
Batcathat
Supagoof
With wolves probably within the bottom three. Supagoof + one of Batcathat/Xihirli.
My gut says Batcathat is town, my brain says there’s strong evidence against them, so this is the compromise I’ve reached with myself.Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-09-17 at 05:37 AM.
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Werewolf games won: 28
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Games as town: 29.5
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Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 31
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2021-09-17, 01:23 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Yes and no. I absolutely intend to keep defending myself (and failing that, giving as much help as I can going forward) until I'm lynched but I accept that the case against me is very strong and I'm unlikely to convince everyone. I can and have provide alternate explanations and alternate suspects but unless I discover that someone said "By the way, I'm a wolf" somewhere in the thread, I don't think it's likely to sway the vote.
I'm not really sure what questioning you mean. I think (a town) AV and I agree for the most part. BW not protecting Libro N1 is unlikely, I just know it must have happened. But by all means – if anyone has any questions I'm happy to answer them to the best of my ability.
I've been trying to come up with some alternative to BW just chosing not to protect the Countess but nothing seems to work, even assuming pretty much everyone else lied about their claims. The one scenario I suppose is possible is that BW wasn't the handmaid to start with (and intentionally lied about it in the sig) but got turned into it N1. But even assuming I haven't overlooked something else, being turned into the very role you lied about being seems very unlikely. So I think the most likely scenario is the obvious one – BW didn't protect Libro. Maybe they realized it was a mistake and did so N2, only to get killed themselves instead. I don't know.
That's kind of funny, that's sort of the reverse of how my brain and gut feel about you.
Going back to Goof is an interesting move in a situation where no one would have blamed you for sticking to me. I suppose it could be the same as I accused gac of earlier – to look good after I flip. But I guess that votingSupagoofis the smart move for both selfish reasons and the good of the town. If he does flip wolf I was probably wrong about you, turning on your wolf buddy in this situation seems very unnecessary.Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-17 at 07:22 AM.
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2021-09-17, 01:40 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
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- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Someone who is Mafia began the game with the King role and targeted me Night One.
That someone needs to have some explanation for what role they have and what they were doing.
Since "what they were doing" is always a lie, and could be counterclaimed, Bat has to make up a lie that passes the sniff tests.
No priests can counterclaim him anymore, but a Guard needs to have a CORRECT answer when they claim what the role was they targeted.
So, since guards are the most common role, you claim that, and then claim the information you already know from the claims.
It doesn't make any sense for a townie to do, at all, not remotely.
And, it can't be verified.
And, it can't be proven to be wrong, either, because anyone who could prove it wrong is dead.
However, any townie starting handmaiden should be targeting the Countess night one, since the Countess claimed.
And AV correctly pointed out that if this happened, then the scry as you call it, would be blocked.
So here we have:
1) A mafioso who absolutely needs a viable starting role claim, since they started as the King.
2) A person who, as town, has absolutely no need to be scrying Libro, particularly since they counterclaimed me, and I unclaimed, and I am town, and they have not been counterclaimed since. There is no purpose to scrying Libro. At all. No solving purpose whatsoever.
3) The only possible purpose is to make a claim that is not immediately known mechanically to be a lie.
4) Yet, due to a close reading of the game, AV had Bat and Wombat as unpaired before Wombat ever died, and saw something in their signature line that said handmaiden. Then he died and flipped town, handmaiden. Who should have been protecting the Countess, period. And was not inactive.
5) Which means BatCatHat should not have gotten the obvious scrying result of Countess on the claimed and not counterclaimed Countess.
That is why it is not villagery, and why a wolf would feel compelled to execute this silly plan, because what's even sillier is claiming to be the King on night one, and stealing my priest powers from me.
That's straight out.
Can't claim Princess.
Can't claim Countess.
Can't claim any role you DO NOT ACTUALLY HAVE that has a confirmable result and then lie about it, like after Kinging me, claim to have Baroned someone else. Can't do that without corroborating stories.
Can't claim to have created quicktopic chats, since that would be a lie.
Can't claim to be one of the handmaidens here, because that would be counterclaimed if both were in play and town.
Go down the list of viable claims for a starting Mafia King.
Or, as you suggested, I think it was you, that I could have been hit by a Baron.
Why Baron? That's something I didn't get.
The king targeting me is straightforward, why did you jump to it being a Baron action.
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How did that become your conclusion?
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https://forums.giantitp.com/showsing...2&postcount=50
Because I am so very tired of having to refer back to this post when all the information is buried deep inside it.
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Okay.
I confused Baron and Prince.
You were referring to gac using the baron's comms power on me. Got it.
I thought you had TMI that I had been hit with a (Prince) power rather than directly Kinged from the King power.
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2021-09-17, 01:51 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
That also wouldn't actually make sense given your own information. If you were targeted by a Prince N1 while you were the Priest, and the Prince gave you the King role, the Priest role picks a single target, and the King role picks a single target, so your action of "I target [player]" would still have succeeded. You would've gotten feedback that looks likething like.
"You've been crowned King. You targeted bladescape in the night. You have swapped powers with bladescape, making them King and you Priest."
That's not what happened. You became King, and you got no feedback on your Priest power. That only happens if you got King'd, not Prince'd into being King.
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2021-09-17, 02:07 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
As I said, the reason I targeted Libro was partly for the (probably very slight) chance that the claim was false for some reason but primarily because I couldn't think of a better use for it, since its use is so limited.
The case against me is basically based on both BW and myself using our powers in an optimal fashion N1. Which is not an unreasonable assumption to make but it is hardly the only alternative.
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2021-09-17, 02:24 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
- Location
- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
In case everyone is wondering why I seem to have a fairly solid grasp of how to play the game of mafia, but I am badly misunderstanding the roles in this game:
Spoiler1) Most of the roles in this game are garbage and low or negative utility for town.
2) The roles specifically prevent solve by spreadsheet a lot because there is missing information, and the setup is designed against an early mass claim being a good idea because roles can be stolen by the mafia, changed, or forced to be discarded, and the mafia are given what amounts to a fake claim because they know a specific role is not in the game so it is safe to claim. For example, I think there shouldn't be two handmaidens. And I assumed that Goof was claiming handmaiden when he said he could "guard" the princess. Which is wrong, that's not what a Guard does. The roles that could ever guard the princess are the Countess and the handmaidens, and giving town all three of those roles is overpowered.
3) The mechanics are so overly complicated and convoluted precisely because you have to prevent an instant spreadsheet solve by mass claim or by claimed roles being used over multiple nights, and even includes a coinflip mechanic and other garbage like role value and rank and all sorts of this other gobbeltygook that I took one look at the roles in the setup and concluded that their value is essentially only in their claim and confirmable power, such as someone claiming to be a baron and using the baron power N1.
So I have had the mechanics, the roles, their precise name, their rank, their value, their order of resolution, what gets coinflipped, all of that? On standby. It's in the OP, and players who play that way, more power to em, I am not one of them. (Like Lightfoot, in return of the Clowns, who doggedly tracked claims and claimed actions publicly all game long to absolutely zero fruitful effect until it was final 7 and miraculously, there was exactly enough information claimed that it exactly narrowed the possible scum teams down to just the one correct one.)
That almost NEVER happens, and if it does, it happens way too late for a player like ME to ever take advantage of it because I gotta solve by cold read and kill the mafiosi TODAY, not tomorrow, and I am usually never alive tomorrow.
I have also brute force solved spreadsheet style games and gotten boned by there being godfathers, ninjas, or townies dying without their roles being revealed.
So I absolutely never, at any point in my entire process, ever ever ever ever began to care at all about the roles.
I only care about behavior, and if someone claims that the information based around the roles and claims leads to a solve, then and only then, do I look at it.
And then, I compare it to what I think my cold reads currently are, and if its my top top top scums claiming my cold read completely clear townies are guilty, I probably don't believe them.
Not unless it's like, the final wolf left alive, and it's way before LYLO, and despite being universally scum read, they claim to have found the last wolf, and therefore, hit there, and if wrong, kill self.
Then I care.
I have not cared at all, except in the following ways:
The Countess protects the Innocent Child, the Princess, who is an Innocent Child role. Basically, a singular Mason.
That's a role I understand and care about at all.
The countess itself? Just because it keeps the innocent child alive, is otherwise worthless, except it is also a semi innocent child role, because it should be always town and can be independently corroborated.
Those roles I cared about.
Making private threads? Don't care. proves you did that, dont even know if you cant kill at the same time. Useless without cops, mostly worthless, but for the severely mechanically inclined among us, you can probably link together the very top read townies and hope they are all town and privately share info that way, but even so.
Right now? All of town's important roles have died or been outed. A mass claim helps town more than scums.
I suggested last night in gac's chat with me that if we flipped a scum today, a second scum, that everyone should mass claim tonight. There is no point in not having literally everyone not claim their starting role, all their actions, and all possible information en masse tonight with 2 dead wolves in 3 attempts.
It is straight up dumb not to try to brute force the game that way after 2 dead wolves and our naughty bits that matter already exposed anyway.
But before now, it was protect the identity of the Princess time and try to get her deep, and thus, everyone shaddap about their roles for crying out loud, especially if you're a handmaiden. Which is why people coming into the thread and saying "I'm a role that protects the princess!" after finding zero townies and zero wolves, in a game where the mafia can kill you, block you, or steal your role, or discard your powers, tells me you have a wolfy mindset.
Wolfy or incredibly not thinking about how it impacts the game or your team to claim.
So people going "I used my power in a non confirmable way on night one, and am claiming right now for no reason" is wolfy.
Meaning, Emmy claiming to use her power to turn herself into a Guard instead of confirming her own location with someone, is wolfy, not villagery.
And she was a wolf.
Meaning, Goof coming in here and saying "I am a role that guards the princess" read to me like a handmaiden claim, and it's super wolfy to come in here and claim a handmaiden when you weren't close to being a top wagon at the time, and doing it after the other handmaiden died is poking for counterclaims, or it means you are a mafia and the game host gave you a handmaiden role that can be used offensively by the mafia team to prevent town actions from resolving.
Now I see Goof is claiming Guard, rather than handmaiden, and Xi is claiming to have started with that role.
Xi is someone I have not looked at closely enough, but on casual pass throughs and a quick iso looked fine.
People going "I am a Guard, and I scried a role that town has 1 of, who claimed, and was not counterclaimed, and I did that instead of telling everyone something we don't already know" is also wolfy.
Like, all of those claims are wolfy.
Except I am apparently misunderstanding Goof's claim, he is saying he is a Guard, which does not guard the princess at all, but worded it as if it suggested so.
None of those claims are in any way helpful for town and none of the usages of the roles were in any way helpful for town, but something tells me that all three of these role claims should not all be scum, even though two of them probably are, and one of them definitely was.
But I never care about the spreadsheet solve. I explicitly laid out in my guidebook why I avoid wasting my time on spreadsheet solves especially in a game where there's multiple roleblocker like powers and powers can be forcibly removed or stolen.
SpoilerI only claimed Priest truthfully because that is the role I was given by the game host and I didn't care about that role in the slightest, but I had to claim my truthful role after Libro full claimed Countess and accused me.
It's not okay to lie there. If I had a different role, it would have been safer for me to work contrary to Blaze's day one idea to out the Countess immediately. But I decided to go that route due to the in thread circumstances, regardless of my actual role, which wasn't countess, handmaiden, or princess, so it was a low value role to me in terms of the solve.
I have looked at the roles in closer detail exactly when it came up in the game as an important point, and otherwise not bothered to care about any of them, except to understand the Princess and Countess are lock town and have powers that are legit useful, and the handmaiden is also protective, and that there are blockers and role stealers and incomplete information.
That's the full extent to how much I care about that, because I typically play in games where the town powers are few and far between and we always have to solve first, rather than futz around with "I'm a role that definitely shouldn't claim day one, let me do it anyway because we are in the habit of beginning with claiming as opposed to solving!"
SpoilerI just hate that, it's antithetical to good vanilla town play, and weakens your ability to solve the game by cold read because you are relying on game host provided design and information to corner the scums for you.
And when it doesn't, and all you do is hand wolves extra data, why did you do any of it? Delayed solving and got your powers outed faster.
You never start with the claims. It's bogus. When I said "Lets all mass claim" on day one, when I claimed Countess, that was the biggest lie I have told in years. There's no way I would ever be in favor of that for real.
I said that precisely because I have ZERO reason to claim Countess otherwise, and it's silly to do so unless I was playing for a d1 mass claim strategy which I find revolting under all circumstances.
Even when it is the correct move, like this years' champs series, and it busts the game in town's favor, I still find it revoltinglynot fun. Claiming to be actually in favor of that idea was a howler that is severely out of character for me, and then I immediately "thought about it and decided" it wasn't a very good idea after all and we should stop with my claim and that no one should claim besides me and definitely I shouldnt be counterclaimed, which is what my real thoughts on the matter were.
This can be a matter of taste and a glaring example of where I am not good at the game, as opposed to examples where I am.
SpoilerI am also terrible at turbos which are ultra fast games that are over in an hour, and terrible at mashes which are ultra massive games with like 70 players and almost all of them are power roles and the days are 12 hours long so I never play these games anymore.
Those types of games do not appeal because they are based on either making wild uneducated guesses (turbos) or having ultra great instincts (turbos) or playing by power role and spreadsheets and claims (mashes).
I hate those games and dont play them anymore, and I dont play all power role games for similar reasons, usually.
And I said all of this way before this game began. So it's just how I am with these games.
Even now, when I think a mass claim should be the correctmost move, especially with another dead wolf incoming soon, I still cannot be bothered to collect all the role claims and begin the sudoku puzzle of piecing the game together by mechanics and claims.
Someone else will always have to do that, and then, I will double check them to see if I spot an easily spotted lie.
Otherwise I am straight up disinterested in the powers, other than for how people are either confirmed innocent by them, or wolfy for not using their power in a pro town enough manner.
If I can spot that the usage is probably wrong, it is probably wrong and wolfy.
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None of this ever gets into my brain this game unless it is carefully explained to me like I am five.
I defer to everyone here as the expert. I am specifically unsuited to approaching the game this way, due to how convoluted it is.
I hate basic actual sudoku puzzles because I have a severe amount of aphantasia.
I literally cannot "see" anything in my head when I close my eyes. I cannot see anything when I daydream, it is purely thoughts and emotions.
There are literally no images in my head except through my literal eyes.
I cannot complete anything except the most basic of sudoku puzzles with the numbers filled in almost completely.
Not without an eraser, and systematically marking down all the possible numbers for each box brute force style. Which I cant fit with an actual pencil and paper. So I hate those danged puzzles.
I know what the procedure is for solving them. I know how to solve them. If I sat there long enough, I could solve the very hardest ones.
I just hate it so very, very, very much. Because it takes me way longer than anyone else, because, just like a chess board, I cannot picture what the board looks like a move or two ahead in my brain.
I know when the move is good by experience and pattern recognition, not because I can see the position 3 moves ahead in my head and evaluate it like I am looking at a static image. Real chess professionals can do that.
I can't do anything with the roles this game except the most basic of solving logic. It's incomprehensible to me and very unfamiliar to me.
SpoilerNot that it isnt a nice change of pace and not that the design doesnt look artful and well designed from the layman's perspective.
But it's a bit like a very powerful roller coaster to someone with motion sickness. I can appreciate others like it, and more power to them. Have fun on that ride.
This is the one ride at the amusement park I observe mostly from the sidelines, or I walk up to the entrance with you and turn back.Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-17 at 02:32 AM.
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2021-09-17, 02:48 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
...you're right.
Spoiler: ClaimsThese are the remaining players and roles. Two of them are scum, but not necessarily lies.
AvatarVecna Batcathat gac3 Libro Mr Popo Rogan Snowblaze Supagoof Xihirli Unused Unused Countess ---- ---- ---- CLAIM ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- King ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- CLAIM ---- ---- ---- ---- Prince ---- ---- ---- ---- CLAIM ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Prince ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Handmaid ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Baron ---- ---- CLAIM ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Baron ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- CLAIM ---- ---- Priest ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Guard ---- CLAIM ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Guard ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- CLAIM ---- ---- ---- Guard ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
...you're right. That chart is too full. Scum knows if their own claims are fake, they know which roles have been cycling through the two unused slots, and if townies are fakeclaiming, scum probably has enough info to know there's a lie in the web of claims, and they have enough info to track it down. They either already know or they find out tonight, so no point hiding it. I'm the Priest, and I've never not been the Priest, but I don't have a way to prove that.
I'll write things up from my perspective and y'all can decide if it's worth a thunderdome.
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2021-09-17, 02:58 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Xihirli never claimed Baron, she claimed I turned her into a guard. Someone did QT us last night, though.
Also. You're claiming Priest. Directly counterclaiming Mr Popo.
screams into the abyssI'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 19
Games as town: 29.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 31
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2021-09-17, 03:01 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-17, 03:05 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 19
Games as town: 29.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 31
Extended Signature
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2021-09-17, 03:08 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Wait, Xihirli is claiming to not be Baron? Either Xihirli is lying, or a Baron linked Snow and Xihirli despite being neither. You could also be lying, but Popo king'd you so that would require the scumteam to be you and Popo to frame Xihirli for some reason? I agree with "I hate mechanics".
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My Homebrew
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2021-09-17, 03:23 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Claims so far
Libro claims to be the Countess.
Batcathat claims to be a Guard, and to have successfully confirmed Libro's role night one.
Xihirli claims to have started as a Handmaid (I think she implied targeting Libro night one) but been turned into a Guard night one.
AvatarVecna claims to have been a Priest all game, and to not be counterclaiming Mr Popo.
Mr Popo claims to have started as a Priest, targeted Supagoof night one but been kinged, and kinged Snowblaze night two, becoming a Prince. He also claims gac3 is a Baron who targeted him night one.
Supagoof claims to be a guard, and to have targeted gac3 night two and successfully guessed his role.
Snowblaze claims to have started as a Prince, targeted Xihirli night one and attempted to target Batcathat night two but was kinged. She also claims a QT between her and Xihirli was established night two.
Known information
JeenLeen was a Guard at the start of the game.
bladescape was a Priest at the end of night one.
EmmyNecromancer was a Guard at the end of night one.
Book Wombat was a Handmaid from the start of the game until his death.
rogue_alchemist was the Princess at the end of night two.
Think that's everything, let me know if there are errors or I've missed something.Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-09-17 at 05:07 AM.
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 28
Werewolf games lost: 19
Games as town: 29.5
Games as neutral: 6.5
Games as wolf: 11
Games narrated: 2
Deaths: 31
Extended Signature
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2021-09-17, 03:43 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Pre-game, I get the Priest card. I'm not fond of playing watcher, because I tend to die early, and I would've preferred to be Baron and get a few private chat shenanigans going, but whatever, gotta deal with the cards I'm dealt. I'm gone for most of D1 and come in to be a bit solvy while there's still daylight. A player I'm unfamiliar with (Mr Popo) seems to be very good at the game, in a way I'm used to being on the other side of. He's townreading me based on "not flailing when a few people are voting me", so I suspect pocketing a little bit...but because he's so good, I'd have to be stupid not to suspect him at least a little bit regardless of what's going on, so that goes on a backburner.
N1, we get a little ways through and Mr Popo is claiming that he wants to kill an inactive D2, preferably Emmy because "she should've been here". I go look at the activity of the two inactives, and sure enough, rogue_alchemist hadn't bee on the forum in days, while Emmy had been on earlier in the night phase. Up until now, I wasn't really sure who to Priest, and had been waffling between bladescape, Xihirli, and Popo (players I'd be particularly worried about because of my difficulty in reading them). But this gave me something substantial to test:
If Emmy was actually inactive, then Priesting her wouldn't come up with any information. She's probably just having a rough time with life again, so I could try and dissuade the wagon the next day. I expect to die early anyway, and we've got a backup watcher, so I might even survive N2 if I claim D2 to protect Emmy. On the other hand, if she uses a power and doesn't speak up N1 or D2, Popo and I pushing the wagon should be enough to get her lynched because our momentum is too strong for most players. And if the usual nonsense of "why are you lynching an inactive, she hasn't even done anything, stop wasting the lynch on somebody who's gonna end up being town and actually hunt for wolves" comes up, I can respond with "actually, I'm town watcher, and I saw Emmy use her power last night". Plus, I do kinda suspect her of being scum for that weirdness in her activity, so if it turns out she targeted (for example) Xihirli, and then when we kill her she flips Scum!Guard, I know that Xihirli is probably innocent because scumteam was spending a role-scry on her from a player nobody should've known was in the game at that point.
This is the post that killed my plans to claim D2 if it became necessary to get Emmy checked. I'm now the only remaining town watcher in a game that has no seers. There's no way in hell I'm claiming unless my life is on the line or I feel not claiming would be handing scum victory somehow. I will explain why I think not claiming today would've been a mistake.
I saw Emmy target target herself. Princess and Countess don't have targeting powers. King would target one person, so that could be it. Prince could be it . Handmaid couldn't be it - Handmaid only targets one person, sure, but then my Priest power wouldn't have worked. Baron couldn't be it, they target two people. Priest couldn't be it - Priest only targets one person, sure, but both priests are accounted for. Guard could be it. So our options are that Emmy is the King, Prince, or Guard who self-targeted N1 for some reason. My best guess at the time: King and Guard make no sense for anybody to target themselves with under basically any circumstances, but I could see somebody with Prince using the power on themselves to get a different power...especially if they know what powers are available in the unused pile. I take this as further implication that Emmy is on scumteam.
Of course, at this point I can do jack all with that information except push for people to lynch Emmy, since I can't share any of this. I join her wagon and hope for the best.
...the best did not occur.
Oh, Popo voted emmy in the next post, sure, and our endorsement of the wagon in the night and at SoD made it the main wagon pretty early, and Emmy died and flipped scum. But this is the one that made game a nightmare for me:
In my head, there are two possible situations that actually occurred:
1) Popo is telling the full truth, and what happened is that bladescape started as town!king, king'd Popo in the night, and got killed...flipping as priest. Popo freaks out and assumes the mafia kill would've prevented the King power from being used (which isn't how the action resolution rules work).
2) Popo is lying. Popo is scum, and knows scum didn't have King role and doesn't have Priest role, so Popo speaks up and says "whoever stole Priest from me must be scum". This is scum!Popo fishing for the final town!priest to counterclaim, the same way Popo somehow got the countess to counterclaim D1 and somehow didn't get lynched for it.
...I assumed Popo knew how the action resolution stuff worked, because he was such a good player, and that meant he was scum. But I was still convinced Emmy was scum and couldn't fathom why he would bus her. Either I was wrong about Popo, or Popo was one crazy wolf...and Popo seemed pretty crazy.
I keep putting work in for ISOs during D2/N2/D3. I put off the Popo ISO on purpose. I started the ISO on D3 partially hoping one of us would die and resolve it, and partially because I wanted to have a rock-solid case against him, otherwise he'll twist stuff around on me and scum would get town to lynch their last watcher. And I didn't claim, because there were few enough claims and dead bodies and scum players that there's no way they knew where I was. I just kept quiet, kept my suspicions of Popo on the backburner, and kept ISOing everybody, hoping I could figure out enough to pin him.
When I finally ISO Popo, I go in looking for reasons to scumread him. I find townie explanations and scum explanations for just about everything. I stop the ISO on the post I linked above, giving a theoretical explanation for how maybe the remaining Priest isn't scum because I still really don't wanna claim publicly, and then I end the ISO, claiming I got too tired of it to continue. It seems that Popo might've been right about nobody reading my ISOs, though, because nobody asks Popo why he didn't consider that possibility - I know that if I ask him directly, it might effectively be outing myself to scumteam if I harped on that one point, while it's possible that most of town would completely miss the real reason I'm asking the question.
...but I can't bring myself to scumread Popo. I know how to play wolf well enough, and bussing Emmy makes no sense. Regardless of how many scum there are, it makes no sense to intentionally lynch your own inactive player instead of letting them autolynch, even if you get towncred for doing so (and Popo tried to insist that nobody should get towncred for Emmy's flip, since her getting lynched was a foregone conclusion before the night is over).
And then Popo says that mass-claiming might make sense here, and it gives me pause. The princess is dead, the countess is outed, and there's been a whole bunch of claims. Scum knows if there's a lie in the web of claims (even if they're not 100% sure on where the lies are), they know what the unused roles were all game (and Cao confirmed that Prince targets have their old power go to the unused pile again), and scum has had two nights of a couple powers to work with. Scum might be fakeclaiming, but they know what their own roles are. How much could they have put together?
...so I make the chart, and there's not a lot of holes in it. There's almost certainly enough claims even just D2 that scum could put together a mostly complete map of who's who on D2. Book Wombat was killed either because they saw the BW claim (or maybe they just saw me essentially out BW with my vague accusation in the night), or just because scum was firing into the pool of unknowns. Maybe they knew I was priest, maybe they didn't. But why am I not dead? Why isn't Popo dead? I'm about 95% sure Popo is town at this point, so why is scumteam letting us both live?
...so that we tunnel each other. The further Popo and I get in the game together, the more likely it is Popo maths out the claims, figures out who's lying, and realizes I'm the Priest. And if I don't explain myself, Popo will hound me to the ends of the earth and distrust everything I've ever said and get me mislynched. And because of that post up there, they had to know that Popo post would sound to me like scum!Popo trying to bait me into a counterclaim. Scum left two dangerous players alive, because they got lucky: bladescape was the only person who super-distrusted Popo coming out of D1, and so bladescape roleblocked Popo. Scum saw Popo set himself against the remaining priest, knew the priest wasn't among the scum, and decided to leave Popo alive. Maybe they knew I was Priest N1 (lucky guard power?) or maybe they've just gained enough clues to piece it together, or maybe they just saw me soft-claim that BW was handmaid and decided baner takes precedent over me.
But at this point, with everything that's out here right now, I can't not claim. This argument and potential mislynch can't happen on LYLO; if it's going to happen, it needs to happen when we can afford for it to happen.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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2021-09-17, 03:48 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
About the chart, we also have Emmy who claimed prince turned guard and Xi claiming maid turned guard.
So, assuming they are telling the truth, the discarded cards are prince and maid.
I know somebody isn't telling the whole truth. That's Xi. It would make more sense for a Baron to connect someone with himself. And Xi can't be a guard, since I am a guard. But no useful info from my side. Popo wasn't the Priest at end of night 1. But he claimed to have been kinged before I could ask about this, so no new info.
Snow is not the Baron at the end of n2. That's no new info either.
So, right now we have one guard claim more than possible, two Priests claims for day 1, with no way to clear either. (At least, I can't see such a way).
The double Priest claim is more concerning, since Mr Popo and AV are on the top of many read lists and the activity list.
The Guard claims are not that open and shut. Is there anybody who would like to withdraw a claim and give their reasoning?
About my crazy plan, I am not sure how Caos clarification about the coin flip would influence things and at this point, I think pouring too much energy into it would only be a distraction.
If the plan is still possible in the night, I can think about it again.
Side note: Oh boy... everybody going into the day, thinking it would be clear cut? Wrong... so wrong.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-17, 03:58 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
There are five guards. Two guard claims are confirmed via death (JeenLeen and Emmy, at least at time of death), and now we have Xihirli, Rogan, Batcathat, and Supagoof claiming guard as well. One of these people is necessarily lying, but that doesn't mean it has to be Xihirli. Batcathat flips tonight as either scum!guard or scum!non-guard. If she flips scum!guard, one of Xihirli/Rogan/Supagoof is lying about being a guard. If she flips scum!non-guard, then Xihirli/Rogan/Supagoof aren't lying about their roles.
The double Priest claim is more concerning, since Mr Popo and AV are on the top of many read lists and the activity list.
Speaking of "useful information", I said I had no way to prove that I'm Priest at all, let alone prove that I was priest N1. Well on N2, I targeted gac3, and gac3 targeted gac3 and AvatarVecna...which I would've learned regardless of being Priest because I'm the one the QT was made with and gac3 was later outed as Baron.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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2021-09-17, 04:17 AM (ISO 8601)
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2021-09-17, 04:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I'm a little sorry about that, but I'm about 70% sure scumteam already knows who everybody is; at most, they were going to figure out everything tonight, maybe tomorrow morning after the NK flip. Popo was right, massclaiming was the answer in this situation, so I went ahead.
(I also kinda vaguely recalled that Popo had referred to you as Baron, but looking back, I'm not sure why? I can't find it anywhere, so yeah I outed you but I also kinda thought you were already outed, so even though outing people is the good move right now, that's definitely at least a little bit my bad. >.<)
Until Mr. Popo told me that they were going to die as if it was gospel truth, I wasn't going to use my power on me last night.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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2021-09-17, 04:35 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Blades was a Priest, not a Prince.
I think this post is a beautiful illustration of the differences between AV and me. I propose a crazy plan based on mechanics. A plan for further actions, that will generate new info and might save someone from night kill.
AV on the other hand uses her knowledge of the rules to solve, going backwards AND including motives and reads.
And if I try to read her own motives? I am running in circles. Wolf!AV would not want to kill Popo, regardless of his Alignment. A Bus would be too risky. A Town killed would make AV the primary target for the next lynch.
Town!AV would want Wolf!Popo arrested ASAP. But Town!AV would not know Popo is a Wolf. She might have reasons to suspect this (and she laid them all out in her ISO) but she came to a different conclusion. And Town!AVs reasons for wanting Town!Popo alive are even more important. A misslynch here would spell doom for AV and, by proxy, the rest of town.
I think we can agree that there is no way Popo and AV are w/w? (Okay, they might be bored in this case and want to add a challenge, but come on... they would not be that cruel, would they? )
Is there a volunteer for going back to a blades ISO to check for a sign he might be the king or intending to target Popo?Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-17, 04:53 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
I gave them a (very) quick look but I can't say I found anything that stands out or hasn't already been discussed. Considering how much time he spent talking about Popo, targeting him is certainly possible but that's hardly news. I even tried finding signs in his RP letter that it was from the perspective of the King but couldn't find anything.
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2021-09-17, 05:02 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Here's the post where I ISO'd blade. It has all the blade posts. I've even made sure to make it so this post has quotes-within-quotes.
(Also, this would be really good evidence that I was already looking for "signs to prove blade was the King"...if it didn't come before Popo indicated he'd gotten King'd. Alas.)
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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2021-09-17, 05:27 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: Tech question
You selected your post to edit it, copied the contend and went back without really changing anything. Next, you quoted your post. You replaced the auto generated content with the post you copied in step 1.
Is this correct? Or is there another, simpler way to quote a post without losing the quotes in it?
After reading this post, I have to agree with Bat. Nothing in there reads king, even if you are looking for it. But it shows that Blades was taking Mr Popo serious and paid attention there.
The signature of his letter could be interpreted as belonging to an religious order, if you know he flipped Priest, but this is reaching for straws.
Maybe, blades used the king to see if Mr Popo was the princess. In this case, he would receive invalid target and would know he doesn't need to be paranoid about Popo.
The power working normally would give blades knowledge of Popos starting role, which might be useful for further analysis.
I'm afraid, I'm not much better informed now than before reading the whole thing.
AV remains helpful, but this is not going to proof her innocence.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-17, 05:33 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
As for revealing me, eh. At this point I was on the fence about just saying it anyways. Now I don't have to decide.
My original plan was "Mr. Popo seems town and better than me. QT with him night one. Night two: link Mr. Popo with whoever they want." But Mr. Popo was convinced they would die and gave me a whole bunch of stuff I was supposed to post today. So I connected you to me instead.