Avengers: Endgame Discussion Thread

[Diceomancer]

I don't see why you're assuming that Strange is seeing only futures in which the same set of people are killed in the Snap, rather than many possible combinations? He said he saw millions of possible futures, so the latter seems far more likely just based off that alone.

It all depends on how the gauntlet's random number generator works.

[Giggling Ghast]

That requires a more flexible interpretation of Strange's discussion with Stark, though.

"How many futures do we win in?"
"One".

Not impossible, but Strange seems to imply a very specific set of actions and events needs to occur to bring about the Good Ending.

Yeah, I have to agree. Strange saw millions of possibilities, but only one set of variables that led to victory.

[Anteros]

I don't see why you're assuming that Strange is seeing only futures in which the same set of people are killed in the Snap, rather than many possible combinations? He said he saw millions of possible futures, so the latter seems far more likely just based off that alone.

Because if victory truly relied on a completely random snap outcome then it makes no sense that he'd be so confident he had put given Tony the "only way".

Of course the real answer is that there are lots of ways they could have won and the prediction scene was just nonsense included to look cool and up the dramatic stakes, but if we want to assume the universe is internally consistent we have to assume Strange knew who would get snapped.

[Silfir]

It's worth noting that whoever has the Infinity Gauntlet controls it with their mind. Computers can't produce truly random outcomes - but neither can people. If anything, they're even worse at it.

[Rakaydos]

It's worth noting that whoever has the Infinity Gauntlet controls it with their mind. Computers can't produce truly random outcomes - but neither can people. If anything, they're even worse at it.

But Thanos didn't "pick a random number" he said "all powerful genie, give me a truely random distribution of dustings, because that's fair."

In other news, my headcannon now involves a 7th timeline. Having just rewatched it yesterday... When Cap was saying his fairwells before returning the stones, Bucky was just too sanguine, both before and after the "transporter accident"

In order to show up at the bench, Old cap had to arrive earlier on the platform and sneak off. (And totally had a heart to heart with bucky where they decided Sam should be the next Cap.) But because cap hadn't left by the time Old cap returned, the rules of time travel for this movie establish that a new timeline has to be created, one in which Old cap never returns. (Because he returns to the Canon timeline) This new timeline presumably has Sam and bucky both horrified thatcaptian never returns and collectively take up the mantle of Captian America. And Banner will continue to explore time to make sure his promise to the ancient one is fulfilled.

[Silfir]

But Thanos didn't "pick a random number" he said "all powerful genie, give me a truely random distribution of dustings, because that's fair."

What makes you think the genie is capable of producing a truly random result? It has nothing to do with power.

[Rakaydos]

What makes you think the genie is capable of producing a truly random result? It has nothing to do with power.

Power is only one of the 6 stones involved. The best way to get truely random numbers is to measure actual phenomina so closely you're really just looking at the noise. Atomic decay (half-life) is another source of true randomness.

These are things that Time, Space, and Reality stones can handle.

[Forum Explorer]

Because if victory truly relied on a completely random snap outcome then it makes no sense that he'd be so confident he had put given Tony the "only way".

Of course the real answer is that there are lots of ways they could have won and the prediction scene was just nonsense included to look cool and up the dramatic stakes, but if we want to assume the universe is internally consistent we have to assume Strange knew who would get snapped.

Well we know that Thanos could control who got snapped. So now it just comes down to who is actually necessary for victory.

Ant Man for the time machine (can't be snapped, was in Quantum Realm)
Iron Man for figuring out the time heist and being prepared to sacrifice everything to snap Thanos and his army away. (was spared the snap due to Strange's sacrifice.)
Some avengers to bring the problem to Tony and carry out the heist (doesn't need to be that particular assortment of avengers, nearly any combination would work I think)
Aurora for where to find a stone, and Thanos after the first snap (spared from the snap since she was his 'daughter')
Ms Marvel to rescue Iron Man from space? Maybe? Could anyone else do that? (Just got lucky here.)

So as far as I can tell, Ms Marvel was the only one not protected by the snap who was necessary, and I'm not a 100% on her being fully necessary. So a 50-50 chance, maybe a bit better. Actually more like 75-25 odds, because if Strange survived the Snap he could have certainly brought Iron Man home. Alternatively though, he was targeted deliberately to be turned to dust.

[The Glyphstone]

What indicates Thanos could choose or control who got snapped, other than the general assumption of being infinitely powerful? For all we know, there was indeed a 50/50 shot of Thanos Snapping himself, and he was just willing to take that risk.

[GloatingSwine]

What indicates Thanos could choose or control who got snapped, other than the general assumption of being infinitely powerful? For all we know, there was indeed a 50/50 shot of Thanos Snapping himself, and he was just willing to take that risk.

He agreed to let Tony Stark live.

[The Glyphstone]

He agreed to let Tony Stark live.

I understood that to mean 'don't kill Tony Stark right now, in the fight they were currently having. But it's been a long time since I watched the movie, so I might be misremembering how it played out.

[Chen]

Yeah there's no indication letting Tony live on Titan also ensured he didn't get snapped away later. Now, it would seem that Thanos COULD control it (Iron Man did) but presumably chose to do it randomly like he espoused earlier in the movie. He may have included himself in that randomness, it's not made clear one way or another.

[Talakeal]

It will be interesting to see if later phases make Thanos' plan more rationale. Maybe by having the overabundance of life in the universe attracting Galactus or something.

He agreed to let Tony Stark live.

It is interesting to note that every character who Thanos agrees to spare doesn't grt snapped.

What indicates Thanos could choose or control who got snapped, other than the general assumption of being infinitely powerful? For all we know, there was indeed a 50/50 shot of Thanos Snapping himself, and he was just willing to take that risk.

I was just thinking that myself.

I imagine that if it were truly random half of the timelines probably involve Thanos snapping himself and then Thor (or someone else if Thor was snapped) just picking up the gauntlet and snapping everyme but Thanos back into existence.

[Rodin]

The key thing that says he can control it (if he wants to) is Stark snapping just Thanos and his army, but not people who had been working for Thanos until just a short time prior like Gamora.

I've been viewing it as being like Dragonball wishes, only at the thought level so you get what you really mean to happen. Which makes "Snap Thanos and all his troops that are hostile" a perfectly cromulent snap, as is "Snap half of everyone totally at random, except these certain people who I agreed to let live".

It's kind of funny that Thanos's honesty is what ultimately does him in. If he had snapped all the Avengers deliberately (or even just killed Stark), he would have won.

[The Glyphstone]

Strange could see the futures though, so he knew making the offer would get accepted and that Thanos would hold up his end. Otherwise he wouldnt have bargained at all.

Time powers really are hax.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Strange could see the futures though, so he knew making the offer would get accepted and that Thanos would hold up his end. Otherwise he wouldnt have bargained at all.

Time powers really are hax.

He also knew that he had a really, really tiny window of opportunity - Thanos had to Snap in the like two minutes it takes Ant-Man to go to the quantum realm to collect the quantum healing energy. Too early or too late, and he is out and, dusted or not, he never discovers the time-travelling potential of the realm.

Somewhat related, I have always assumed that Strange's search of futures was hardly exhaustive. A mere 14 million timelines is ludicrously small. Instead, I assume he is limited by how fast he can check each one, and how deep it can check it for results. The number of runs also suggests some type of pruning. "Start with 10 million, then pick slight alternatives to the most promising 4 million of them, then refine it down to 500, then 100, then 5, and thankfully one of them does have a positive endgame".

Grey Wolf

[Rodin]

He also knew that he had a really, really tiny window of opportunity - Thanos had to Snap in the like two minutes it takes Ant-Man to go to the quantum realm to collect the quantum healing energy. Too early or too late, and he is out and, dusted or not, he never discovers the time-travelling potential of the realm.

Somewhat related, I have always assumed that Strange's search of futures was hardly exhaustive. A mere 14 million timelines is ludicrously small. Instead, I assume he is limited by how fast he can check each one, and how deep it can check it for results. The number of runs also suggests some type of pruning. "Start with 10 million, then pick slight alternatives to the most promising 4 million of them, then refine it down to 500, then 100, then 5, and thankfully one of them does have a positive endgame".

Grey Wolf

Presumably he also only searched ones with a decent probability of happening. There's a universe out there where Thanos was prevented from doing the Snap by a sperm whale and a pot of petunias landing on his head, but there's no way to actually manipulate that result into happening.

[Giggling Ghast]

Given that the Infinity Stones seem at least partially sentient, is it possible that they did the choosing of who was dusted after Thanos directed them to eradicate half the life in the universe?

Somewhat related, I have always assumed that Strange's search of futures was hardly exhaustive. A mere 14 million timelines is ludicrously small. Instead, I assume he is limited by how fast he can check each one, and how deep it can check it for results. The number of runs also suggests some type of pruning. "Start with 10 million, then pick slight alternatives to the most promising 4 million of them, then refine it down to 500, then 100, then 5, and thankfully one of them does have a positive endgame".

I assume he continued running through scenarios until he finally happened upon one where the good guys defeat Thanos. It then fell to Dr. Strange to try and manipulate circumstances so that they matched that timeline.

[zimmerwald1915]

Somewhat related, I have always assumed that Strange's search of futures was hardly exhaustive. A mere 14 million timelines is ludicrously small.

That would be true of literally any number quoted. He could have searched a Graham's number of timelines and it would still be ludicrously small.

[Forum Explorer]

What indicates Thanos could choose or control who got snapped, other than the general assumption of being infinitely powerful? For all we know, there was indeed a 50/50 shot of Thanos Snapping himself, and he was just willing to take that risk.

Stark being able to control who was snapped means it was certainly possible for Thanos to control who was targeted. Ditto with Banner bringing everyone back, but failing to bring back Gamora and Black Widow. He deliberately tried to bring them back.

Did Thanos include everyone? Well maybe not. But everyone he promised to spare lived. So that's Thor, Aurora, and Tony. So it's a bit of a coincidence if he didn't.

[Lapak]

Did Thanos include everyone? Well maybe not. But everyone he promised to spare lived. So that's Thor, Aurora,and Tony. So it's a bit of a coincidence if he didn't.

Do you mean Nebula here? Am I forgetting a character entirely?

[Zevox]

Because if victory truly relied on a completely random snap outcome then it makes no sense that he'd be so confident he had put given Tony the "only way".

Of course the real answer is that there are lots of ways they could have won and the prediction scene was just nonsense included to look cool and up the dramatic stakes, but if we want to assume the universe is internally consistent we have to assume Strange knew who would get snapped.

Uh, no, that argument makes no sense. There's nothing at all internally inconsistent about Strange not knowing who would be affected by the Snap. He can't control that, after all. He could only do what was within his power to set things along the course they took in the one future he saw where they would win in the long run, and then hope that everything outside of his control would fall into place.

Unless you're trying to suggest that Strange doing what he did only makes sense if he knows for a fact that things will reach the outcome where they win as long as he gives Thanos the Time Stone in exchange for sparing Tony, your argument doesn't add up. And if that is what you're trying to suggest, I'd argue that your argument also doesn't make sense, since he can't possibly know that. Since he has to die in the Snap too he isn't even around to influence anything after the fight with Thanos on Titan, after all, so all of the events leading from the Snap up through Hulk reversing it have to happen without him to guide it. There's no way those never varied.

[Lethologica]

In other news, my headcannon now involves a 7th timeline. Having just rewatched it yesterday... When Cap was saying his fairwells before returning the stones, Bucky was just too sanguine, both before and after the "transporter accident"

In order to show up at the bench, Old cap had to arrive earlier on the platform and sneak off. (And totally had a heart to heart with bucky where they decided Sam should be the next Cap.) But because cap hadn't left by the time Old cap returned, the rules of time travel for this movie establish that a new timeline has to be created, one in which Old cap never returns. (Because he returns to the Canon timeline) This new timeline presumably has Sam and bucky both horrified thatcaptian never returns and collectively take up the mantle of Captian America. And Banner will continue to explore time to make sure his promise to the ancient one is fulfilled.

There's a much simpler explanation for this: young Cap had a chat with Bucky before returning the Stones.

[Anteros]

Uh, no, that argument makes no sense. There's nothing at all internally inconsistent about Strange not knowing who would be affected by the Snap. He can't control that, after all. He could only do what was within his power to set things along the course they took in the one future he saw where they would win in the long run, and then hope that everything outside of his control would fall into place.

Unless you're trying to suggest that Strange doing what he did only makes sense if he knows for a fact that things will reach the outcome where they win as long as he gives Thanos the Time Stone in exchange for sparing Tony, your argument doesn't add up. And if that is what you're trying to suggest, I'd argue that your argument also doesn't make sense, since he can't possibly know that. Since he has to die in the Snap too he isn't even around to influence anything after the fight with Thanos on Titan, after all, so all of the events leading from the Snap up through Hulk reversing it have to happen without him to guide it. There's no way those never varied.

He's looking at variables that he personally can change to attain the perfect timeline where they win. That's literally the entire point of the scene. You seem to be under the impression that there's a multiverse with trillions of splitting timelines depending on difference decisions people make, but that isn't how it works in this setting. It does work that way in some settings, but in this one the timelines don't change unless someone actively changes them. He's not gambling that everything will fall into place. There's not 14 million existing timelines where the Avengers lose. He knows exactly how things will turn out from the moment he finds the correct order of events to make sure they win.

So yes, he knows who gets snapped because he looks into the future and can see it.

[Zevox]

He's looking at variables that he personally can change to attain the perfect timeline where they win. That's literally the entire point of the scene. You seem to be under the impression that there's a multiverse with trillions of splitting timelines depending on difference decisions people make, but that isn't how it works in this setting. It does work that way in some settings, but in this one the timelines don't change unless someone actively changes them. He's not gambling that everything will fall into place. There's not 14 million existing timelines where the Avengers lose. He knows exactly how things will turn out from the moment he finds the correct order of events to make sure they win.

So yes, he knows who gets snapped because he looks into the future and can see it.

We're explicitly told that he sees fourteen million+ possible futures. Whether each of those is a timeline that actually occurs or not is irrelevant (and something I don't actually have a view on one way or the other, as I don't care), there simply are that many possibilities for how things could have played out, and we're told so directly. It's utterly ridiculous to suggest that Strange's actions in giving Thanos the Time Stone were all that were required for the one where they win to play out, as there's far too much that's outside of his control for that.

He saw millions of possible futures, saw that in only one specific one would they win, took what steps he could to push things towards that, and had to hope that the factors outside of his control would work as well. The only part of that which is even left to our interpretation is that last, and I don't see any way in which any alternative interpretation could possibly be sensible.

Edit: Here, re-watch that scene.
Spider-Man: "What was that?"
Doctor Strange: "I looked forward in time, to view alternate futures. To see all the possible outcomes of the coming conflict."
Starlord: "How many did you see?"
Doctor Strange: "Fourteen million six hundred and five."
Tony: "How many do we win?"
Doctor Strange: "One."

There is no suggestion there that Strange was looking only at what he could personally do, only that he was viewing possible futures in general. Supposedly all of the possible outcomes, in fact.

[Anteros]

This isn't as complicated as you're making it. Yes, he can see 14 million futures but they're all variations based on what happens due to various actions Strange and the others take during their fight with Thanos. Once the fight happens the future is set again. The timeline doesn't change unless someone uses the time stone or another form of time travel to do so. The only reason that variance was possible in the first place is because Strange was messing with the stone. We know this from the scene with the ancient one in endgame. There's many possible timelines but only one actual one. There's no timeline where Tony dies in space, or decides not to go back in time, or other people get snapped. Once Strange picks the timeline to follow it's set.

It's not my preferred way for things to work since it says disturbing things about fate and free will, but it's the way it works in this setting nonetheless.

[Zevox]

This isn't as complicated as you're making it. Yes, he can see 14 million futures but they're all variations based on what happens due to various actions Strange and the others take during their fight with Thanos. Once the fight happens the future is set again. The timeline doesn't change unless someone uses the time stone or another form of time travel to do so. The only reason that variance was possible in the first place is because Strange was messing with the stone. We know this from the scene with the ancient one in endgame. There's many possible timelines but only one actual one. There's no timeline where Tony dies in space, or decides not to go back in time, or other people get snapped. Once Strange picks the timeline to follow it's set.

It's not my preferred way for things to work since it says disturbing things about fate and free will, but it's the way it works in this setting nonetheless.

Unfortunately I cannot find a complete clip of that scene at this time to fully refute you there, only one that starts midway through the relevant discussion, but that was very much not my takeaway from that scene. There was no suggestion that it is only the use of the Time Stone that results in timelines varying, only that removing one would result in a timeline split, since the past would have been changed such that it would no longer become the Avengers' original future.

[Forum Explorer]

Do you mean Nebula here? Am I forgetting a character entirely?

I did mean Nebula, sorry. I was trying to remember which space like phenomenon was her name, took my best guess, and missed.

[Lapak]

I did mean Nebula, sorry. I was trying to remember which space like phenomenon was her name, took my best guess, and missed.

No need to apologize! I was the one who started second-guessing myself.

[Rakaydos]

There's a much simpler explanation for this: young Cap had a chat with Bucky before returning the Stones.

Eh, either way it means a timeline where cap never returns, to explain cap returning before he left and heading down to the bench.