Wizard vs fighter, low level melee

[RSGA]

Being stunned for a round while flying (using reserves of strength) can cause death by falling so not sure if that's really a win. But let's assume the wizard knows it's 'do or die' time, (Sounds reasonable if your accepting to get stunned) in which case he should probably fly down before firing. so problem solved.

That just leaves the issue that total cover from a tower shield thwarts even magic missile. So I still think fighter has at least a draw here.

Magic Missile's a Targeted spell so it can hit not just the Fighter using the Tower Shield but up to five Fighters using Tower Shields. Now if you want a common spell the Tower can work against, it's Explosive Runes. One it's probably supposed to work against but does not, Fireball. Unless you go with the box interpretation or can properly work a Delay.

[Twurps]

Magic Missile's a Targeted spell so it can hit not just the Fighter using the Tower Shield but up to five Fighters using Tower Shields. Now if you want a common spell the Tower can work against, it's Explosive Runes. One it's probably supposed to work against but does not, Fireball. Unless you go with the box interpretation or can properly work a Delay.

Let's look at magic missile:

The missile strikes unerringly, even if the target is in melee combat or has less than total cover or total concealment.

emphasis mine

and now at tower shield

you can instead use it as total cover

emphasis mine

So no: the wizard can't hit the fighter who's hiding behind his shield.

[Doctor Despair]

Let's look at magic missile:

emphasis mine

and now at tower shield

emphasis mine

So no: the wizard can't hit the fighter who's hiding behind his shield.

The shield does not, however, provide cover against targeted spells; a spellcaster can cast a spell on you by targeting the shield you are holding.

Would not the specific text for tower shields (that they provide no cover against targeted spells) overcome the general rule that magic missile cannot affect people with cover?

[Twurps]

Would not the specific text for tower shields (that they provide no cover against targeted spells) overcome the general rule that magic missile cannot affect people with cover?

Wow! how did I miss that for like forever! Never mind then, magic missile does work (except maybe when the fighter uses the total cover to then hide. But that's a piece of raw I refuse to use)

So basically for wizard we're looking for: A way to fly at lvl 1 without being an anthropomorphic animal.
For fighter we're looking for: A way to get nerveskitter or any other usefull way of spending an immediate action (Quertus mentioned this being a possibility, I'm not aware of any).
And just in case we do find a way for the wizard to get airborne: a way to combat magic missile? I don't know of any.

[Doctor Despair]

Wow! how did I miss that for like forever! Never mind then, magic missile does work (except maybe when the fighter uses the total cover to then hide. But that's a piece of raw I refuse to use)

So basically for wizard we're looking for: A way to fly at lvl 1 without being an anthropomorphic animal.
For fighter we're looking for: A way to get nerveskitter or any other usefull way of spending an immediate action (Quertus mentioned this being a possibility, I'm not aware of any).
And just in case we do find a way for the wizard to get airborne: a way to combat magic missile? I don't know of any.

Technically, any way the wizard has to fly works for the fighter. I'm just not sure what that would be.

It's also possible that a fighter with a bow would out-damage the wizard trying to slap the fighter with level 0 spells. The fighter probably only needs to land 1 or 2 shots; the wizard will presumably need to use a few level 0 spells to ensure the magic missile kills.

[emeraldstreak]

And just in case we do find a way for the wizard to get airborne: a way to combat magic missile? I don't know of any.

For one feat the Fighter can take a dragonmarked feat that allows using Shield 1/day.

With WBL, there's a brooch that counters Magic Missile, and of course scrolls of Shield can be UMD'd.

[Twurps]

For one feat the Fighter can take a dragonmarked feat that allows using Shield 1/day.

With WBL, there's a brooch that counters Magic Missile, and of course scrolls of Shield can be UMD'd.

Oh! shield would be nice.
if you mean the brooch of shielding, that one's out of reach at lvl1, at 1500GP, but well within reach at lvl3.

additionally: means of flight can also be obtained for a simple feat: Animal devotion gives you a fly speed for 1 minute a day.
downside for the fighter: another feat in his feat-starved build. downside for the wizard: swift action activation.

[rel]

Hello again, the detailed statistical analysis continues.

For those playing at home, I've decided to start with builds I can reasonably expect to see at the table and test them against one another.

Further, I excluded abrupt jaunt because it required rules adjudication.

results were interesting with wizard not coming out on top as often as I'd have expected.

Today I'll be addressing the issue of abrupt jaunt. Specifically that the GM needs to rule on how it works.

I considered a lot of rulings but decided to focus on just 2:

(1) abrupt jaunt is a perfect defence. wizard can talk their way out of flat footedness and perfectly dodge any attack

(2) flat footed stops abrupt jaunt but if activated, abrupt jaunt can dodge any attack

This ignores a lot of the common but less effective rulings such as 'Abrupt jaunt only dodges half the time' and 'abrupt jaunt doesn't stop you getting stabbed, you teleport then fall apart as fighter finishes sheathing their sword.' But just these two already give a lot of insight.

The only way fighter wins under option 1 is by saving against both castings of colourspray. This at least makes the maths easy.
Fighter (will save -1): 6% chance of winning
Fighter (will save +4): 25% chance of winning

Under the second scenario the fighter can either win initiative and get the kill or weather the spells. This means I need to break out my probability trees.
fighter (+2 init, -1 will): 46 % chance of winning
fighter (+6 init, -1 will): 58% chance of winning
fighter (+2 init, +4 will): 65% chance of winning

So there you go, even if wizard can talk their way out of being flat footed a bog standard fighter with iron will and a reasonable wis bonus can pull out a win 1/4 of the time.
Without that frankly generous ruling fighter can gain the advantage with either high initiative or a good will save and even your standard nothing special at all fighter still has near coin flip odds of winning.

[Quertus]

Further, I excluded abrupt jaunt because it required rules adjudication.

Today I'll be addressing the issue of abrupt jaunt. Specifically that the GM needs to rule on how it works.

I considered a lot of rulings but decided to focus on just 2:

(1) abrupt jaunt is a perfect defence. wizard can talk their way out of flat footedness and perfectly dodge any attack

(2) flat footed stops abrupt jaunt but if activated, abrupt jaunt can dodge any attack

This ignores a lot

Like the ruling that it only works if it takes you out of range - which, by my reading of the thread, was the one we were working under?

Option 1 isn't worth considering to begin with, and certainly not when only looking at builds that might appear at a table.

Under the second scenario the fighter can either win initiative and get the kill or weather the spells. This means I need to break out my probability trees.
fighter (+2 init, -1 will): 46 % chance of winning
fighter (+6 init, -1 will): 58% chance of winning
fighter (+2 init, +4 will): 65% chance of winning

So there you go, even if wizard can talk their way out of being flat footed a bog standard fighter with iron will and a reasonable wis bonus can pull out a win 1/4 of the time.
Without that frankly generous ruling fighter can gain the advantage with either high initiative or a good will save and even your standard nothing special at all fighter still has near coin flip odds of winning.

Curious that you only have a single Wizard - were the "multiple Wizard strategies/builds" only in effect as of level 3+? Or was there only one Wizard build that you deemed "likely to appear at a table"?

[Calthropstu]

please remember, the likelihood of a random wizard having COMPLETELY useless spells prepared (such as sleep vs an elven fighter) is rather high. This scenario has pitted Shrodinger's wizard vs Schrodinger's fighter. Reality would be far different. Vs our schrodinger's fighter, could you imagine with sleep prepared instead of color spray and without jaunt? It would be an instant massacre.

Fact remains: Schrodinger's lvl 1 fighter beats Schrodinger's lvl 1 wizard more often than the reverse.

[Doctor Despair]

Fact remains: Schrodinger's lvl 1 fighter beats Schrodinger's lvl 1 wizard more often than the reverse.

I suppose it depends on what builds from the discussion you're discussing. I don't think that's accurate.

If the wizard goes first, they can cast spells unless the fighter has combat reflexes (feat requirement). However, this normally requires that the fighter wield a weapon.

If the wizard wants to cast through the AOO, they can Abrupt Jaunt or just have a high AC.

Hitting the wizard is tough turn 0, because the wizard can hold a tower shield and use mage armor, which gives them 18 AC flat-footed before size bonuses or anything, or a 65% miss chance even if the fighter goes first. If it's an AOO and the wizard isn't flat-footed, they can walk away with at least 22 AC, or an 85% miss chance. The wizard going first has an 85% chance of being able to walk away, drop the shield, and cast a spell with no AOO. That's a cumulative 56% miss chance from the fighter even if the fighter went first.

In order to defeat a conjuration focus, the fighter needs two vile feats (willing deformity and tall) and an exotic weapon proficiency (or the Exoticist class from a dragon mag). If they don't have this, the wizard has a 100% chance of porting away and casting a spell with no AOO. If they do have this, then the wizard has to walk it out and take the 85% chance.

Alternatively, the wizard could just cast defensively. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves) or dex (initiative) however. It does save a level 1 spell that we would have used on mage armor, but it lowers our odds if the fighter goes first, so we probably save the feat slot.

In order to defeat the SOL level 1 spells, the fighter needs two vile feats that are not ideal (willing deformity and madness, for immunity to mind-affecting). Otherwise, the fighter (who probably dumped wisdom) has a 75% to fail their first save (DC 15, -1 from wis), or a big benefit to the wizard.

So we now have this very specific fighter (Exoticist: Combat Reflexes, Willing Deformity, Deformity (Madness), Deformity (Tall)), and we need all of those to not be at a pretty big disadvantage. The fighter has no extra feats, and the wizard has used no feats (except maybe combat casting), so initiative advantage goes to the wizard, too, deepending that lead.

So now the wizard has a 56% chance (fighter went first, wizard AC tanked), or an 85% chance (wizard went first, AC tanked to cast) of casting a spell, depending on inititiative. They saved their jaunt, if they have it, because why not save it. The wizard can dump intelligence, because they're probably using damage-roll spells, not SOL/SOS spells. If the fighter is using dragon material, then the wizard can use a level 0 spell with fell drain/easy metamagic to cause a negative level from a first level spell-slot. However, let's say the fighter dipped a feat for the proficiency. Maybe they gave up madness, knowing the wizard wouldn't prepare a mind-affecting spell, or gave up tall, knowing the wizard wouldn't have a conjuration focus. As the fighter isn't using third party/dragon material, the wizard won't, either.

This puts us in the situation where a conjuration wizard with Color Spray prepared will just straight-up win the matchup, I think we decided, unless the fighter gives up Combat Reflexes, which gives the wizard a way better level 1. I suppose the flip-side to that is that the fighter just wins if they make their save. Still, if the wizard goes first, with no AOO, that's just a 75% winrate, or more if they use their feats to pump the save. It's also a bog-standard wizard-build to boot. This probably means the fighter can't have combat reflexes without losing to a conjuration wizard or just losing to a generic wizard who prepared Color Spray (or both). However, as the reflexes are only relevant on that first turn (if the wizard goes first), that actually only increases the wizard's winrate a little bit (divide it by 0.85), so now the wizard has a 56% of a chance to cast their spell if the fighter went first, or 100% if the wizard went first (instead of AC tanking).

The wizard has to actually take out the fighter with that first spell for it to end there. Reserves of Power + Magic Missile deals 4d4 + 4 damage to the fighter, 8-20 (average 14). The fighter only has 14 hp, but as he'd be left up, that'd probably be a win to the fighter while the wizard was stunned for 3 rounds. That's more than a 50% chance the fighter can walk up and demolish the wizard with at least one of three follow-up attacks.

However, if the wizard softened the fighter up a bit first, things could be different. Magic Missile does a minimum of 8 damage, so if the wizard can deal 7 damage with their level 0 spells and other abilities, the Magic Missile could be a safe finisher. Those spells will do 1d3 on a touch attack (average 2), so not quite enough on average. Additionally, the fighter would get an AOO on each of those spells, and as the wizard dropped their tower shield, that would be bad news for them.

Toss the Reserves of Power combo for a moment, and we return to Substroke. 2d6 (average 7) nonlethal damage with a level 1 slot is less than magic missile, but it prompts a save to fatigue, which is good, and leaves us with two feat slots to do the Precocious Apprentice/Fiery Burst combo. Fighter with 18 dex has a +4 to save, but on a failed save the fighter takes an average of 2 damage, which would top off the fighter after 4 uses. The fighter still gets to repeat their attack four additional times though, which is... not ideal. Still leans fighter.

So we decided that racial forms of flight are all templated or third party, but in a recent thread I believe it was pointed out that players can visit a magical location (Eyes of the Lich Queen, or something like that?) to get a free abberant dragonmark for an SLA. We could get Inflict Light to do 1d8+1 on a touch attack, or Burning Hands for 1d4 reflex half...

Alright, but what if the wizard wasn't a conjuration specialist, and the fighter gave up their reach anyway (losing deformity (tall) for EWP). After all, how could the fighter know the wizard's specialty (apart from us making super meta decisions in both character's builds)? Could the familiar do anything? I'm not sure -- I'm not familiar enough with familars (haha) or wizards to know that sort of obscure thing.

I suppose the wizard could use Backbiter to make the fighter hit themselves once, in place of a damage spell. The fighter would probably do 2d4 +4, or average of 9. However, the wizard still has to do 6 damage with their three level 0s, which they can technically do. However, the odds look very bad for them needing to avoid three more AOOs (possibly - defensive casting allowing) and three more regular attacks.

So the tentative conclusion I'd suggest here is that the wizard needs both level 1 spells to win this matchup - period - without the use of flight from a race or template. This changes the beginning of the match significantly.

...

If the wizard goes first, they can cast spells unless the fighter has combat reflexes - which we decided they didn't. So that's a 100% chance success.

If the wizard wants to cast through the AOOs in their second turn (or first, if the fighter goes first), they can Abrupt Jaunt, defensively cast, or just have a high AC.

The wizard can hold a tower shield, which gives them 14 AC flat-footed before size bonuses or anything, or a 45% miss chance if the fighter goes first. The wizard's normal AC will also be a 14 once they drop the tower shield, or an 18 with it (if the fighter prepares an action to attack the wizard to prevent an abrupt jaunt, causing the wizard to hold it while they walk away). Thus, it isn't in the fighter's interest to waste their first attack on a preparation, as the wizard can't avoid it anyway, and their AC only goes up if they wait to use it on a prepared action.

Defensive casting might be more viable at this point. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves, abrupt jaunts (irrelevant)) or dex (initiative, ac) however.

So now the wizard has a 21% chance (fighter went first, wizard AC tanked), a 39% chance (fighter went first, wizard combat casted defensively), or a 100% chance (wizard goes first) of casting a spell, depending on inititiative. They saved their jaunt, if they have it, because why not save it. The wizard can dump intelligence, because they're probably using damage-roll spells, not SOL/SOS spells, for stat consolidation.

Backbiter ironically did the most damage (2d4 +4, 6-12, average 9) next to Reserves of Power Magic Missile (4d4 +4, average 14). If the wizard takes their second feat as Reserves of Power, they could down the fighter in two spells more often than not, but they'd take one more standard-action attack (negated with Backbiter) and have to cast defensively one more time (15% chance of failure). That leads to the wizard matchup looking like:

Wizard goes first: Backbiter (100% success rate), block attack with Backbiter, cast defensively (85% success rate), hopefully deal a cumulative 15 damage (6d4 +8, 14-32, average 23, more than an 84% success rate)

Fighter goes first: Attack (55% success rate, ends matchup if successful), wizard has to cast defensively or else lose their spell (15% success rate, probably wins matchup if wizard fails, cumulative ~62% success rate), attack (lost to Backbiter), wizard has to cast defensively or else lose their spell (15% success rate, probably wins matchup if wizard fails, cumulative 68% success rate).

Assuming equal initiative, that the wizard takes a conjuration focus to prevent the fighter from trading out Deformity (Tall) for Combat Reflexes, it seems like the matchups are thus:

Psychic Min-Max Schrodinger's Level 1 Wizard: 58%

Psychic Min-Max Schrodinger's Level 1 Fighter: 42%

This, of course, didn't allow for the fighter spending their turn one attack as a melee touch attack to try to initiate a grapple. There is an alternative fighter who focuses entirely on grappling and initiative to try to ensure they go first and lock down the wizard. However, the wizard would then gain access to Nerveskitter, so I think the fighter actually wins initiative slightly less often, and the fighter straight-up loses if the wizard goes first, so I don't actually think this helps the matchup very much.

[However, it is of note that the wizard needs to have specifically Backbiter, Magic Missile, and the feats Combat Casting and Reserves of Power in order for this to work. A wizard missing one of those elements will see their win rate drop significantly.]

[Calthropstu]

I suppose it depends on what builds from the discussion you're discussing. I don't think that's accurate.

If the wizard goes first, they can cast spells unless the fighter has combat reflexes (feat requirement). However, this normally requires that the fighter wield a weapon.

If the wizard wants to cast through the AOO, they can Abrupt Jaunt or just have a high AC.

Hitting the wizard is tough turn 0, because the wizard can hold a tower shield and use mage armor, which gives them 18 AC flat-footed before size bonuses or anything, or a 65% miss chance even if the fighter goes first. If it's an AOO and the wizard isn't flat-footed, they can walk away with at least 22 AC, or an 85% miss chance. The wizard going first has an 85% chance of being able to walk away, drop the shield, and cast a spell with no AOO. That's a cumulative 56% miss chance from the fighter even if the fighter went first.

In order to defeat a conjuration focus, the fighter needs two vile feats (willing deformity and tall) and an exotic weapon proficiency (or the Exoticist class from a dragon mag). If they don't have this, the wizard has a 100% chance of porting away and casting a spell with no AOO. If they do have this, then the wizard has to walk it out and take the 85% chance.

Alternatively, the wizard could just cast defensively. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves) or dex (initiative) however. It does save a level 1 spell that we would have used on mage armor, but it lowers our odds if the fighter goes first, so we probably save the feat slot.

In order to defeat the SOL level 1 spells, the fighter needs two vile feats that are not ideal (willing deformity and madness, for immunity to mind-affecting). Otherwise, the fighter (who probably dumped wisdom) has a 75% to fail their first save (DC 15, -1 from wis), or a big benefit to the wizard.

So we now have this very specific fighter (Exoticist: Combat Reflexes, Willing Deformity, Deformity (Madness), Deformity (Tall)), and we need all of those to not be at a pretty big disadvantage. The fighter has no extra feats, and the wizard has used no feats (except maybe combat casting), so initiative advantage goes to the wizard, too, deepending that lead.

So now the wizard has a 56% chance (fighter went first, wizard AC tanked), or an 85% chance (wizard went first, AC tanked to cast) of casting a spell, depending on inititiative. They saved their jaunt, if they have it, because why not save it. The wizard can dump intelligence, because they're probably using damage-roll spells, not SOL/SOS spells. If the fighter is using dragon material, then the wizard can use a level 0 spell with fell drain/easy metamagic to cause a negative level from a first level spell-slot. However, let's say the fighter dipped a feat for the proficiency. Maybe they gave up madness, knowing the wizard wouldn't prepare a mind-affecting spell, or gave up tall, knowing the wizard wouldn't have a conjuration focus. As the fighter isn't using third party/dragon material, the wizard won't, either.

This puts us in the situation where a conjuration wizard with Color Spray prepared will just straight-up win the matchup, I think we decided, unless the fighter gives up Combat Reflexes, which gives the wizard a way better level 1. I suppose the flip-side to that is that the fighter just wins if they make their save. Still, if the wizard goes first, with no AOO, that's just a 75% winrate, or more if they use their feats to pump the save. It's also a bog-standard wizard-build to boot. This probably means the fighter can't have combat reflexes without losing to a conjuration wizard or just losing to a generic wizard who prepared Color Spray (or both). However, as the reflexes are only relevant on that first turn (if the wizard goes first), that actually only increases the wizard's winrate a little bit (divide it by 0.85), so now the wizard has a 56% of a chance to cast their spell if the fighter went first, or 100% if the wizard went first (instead of AC tanking).

The wizard has to actually take out the fighter with that first spell for it to end there. Reserves of Power + Magic Missile deals 4d4 + 4 damage to the fighter, 8-20 (average 14). The fighter only has 14 hp, but as he'd be left up, that'd probably be a win to the fighter while the wizard was stunned for 3 rounds. That's more than a 50% chance the fighter can walk up and demolish the wizard with at least one of three follow-up attacks.

However, if the wizard softened the fighter up a bit first, things could be different. Magic Missile does a minimum of 8 damage, so if the wizard can deal 7 damage with their level 0 spells and other abilities, the Magic Missile could be a safe finisher. Those spells will do 1d3 on a touch attack (average 2), so not quite enough on average. Additionally, the fighter would get an AOO on each of those spells, and as the wizard dropped their tower shield, that would be bad news for them.

Toss the Reserves of Power combo for a moment, and we return to Substroke. 2d6 (average 7) nonlethal damage with a level 1 slot is less than magic missile, but it prompts a save to fatigue, which is good, and leaves us with two feat slots to do the Precocious Apprentice/Fiery Burst combo. Fighter with 18 dex has a +4 to save, but on a failed save the fighter takes an average of 2 damage, which would top off the fighter after 4 uses. The fighter still gets to repeat their attack four additional times though, which is... not ideal. Still leans fighter.

So we decided that racial forms of flight are all templated or third party, but in a recent thread I believe it was pointed out that players can visit a magical location (Eyes of the Lich Queen, or something like that?) to get a free abberant dragonmark for an SLA. We could get Inflict Light to do 1d8+1 on a touch attack, or Burning Hands for 1d4 reflex half...

Alright, but what if the wizard wasn't a conjuration specialist, and the fighter gave up their reach anyway (losing deformity (tall) for EWP). After all, how could the fighter know the wizard's specialty (apart from us making super meta decisions in both character's builds)? Could the familiar do anything? I'm not sure -- I'm not familiar enough with familars (haha) or wizards to know that sort of obscure thing.

I suppose the wizard could use Backbiter to make the fighter hit themselves once, in place of a damage spell. The fighter would probably do 2d4 +4, or average of 9. However, the wizard still has to do 6 damage with their three level 0s, which they can technically do. However, the odds look very bad for them needing to avoid three more AOOs (possibly - defensive casting allowing) and three more regular attacks.

So the tentative conclusion I'd suggest here is that the wizard needs both level 1 spells to win this matchup - period - without the use of flight from a race or template. This changes the beginning of the match significantly.

...

If the wizard goes first, they can cast spells unless the fighter has combat reflexes - which we decided they didn't. So that's a 100% chance success.

If the wizard wants to cast through the AOOs in their second turn (or first, if the fighter goes first), they can Abrupt Jaunt, defensively cast, or just have a high AC.

The wizard can hold a tower shield, which gives them 14 AC flat-footed before size bonuses or anything, or a 45% miss chance if the fighter goes first. The wizard's normal AC will also be a 14 once they drop the tower shield, or an 18 with it (if the fighter prepares an action to attack the wizard to prevent an abrupt jaunt, causing the wizard to hold it while they walk away). Thus, it isn't in the fighter's interest to waste their first attack on a preparation, as the wizard can't avoid it anyway, and their AC only goes up if they wait to use it on a prepared action.

Defensive casting might be more viable at this point. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves, abrupt jaunts (irrelevant)) or dex (initiative, ac) however.

So now the wizard has a 21% chance (fighter went first, wizard AC tanked), a 39% chance (fighter went first, wizard combat casted defensively), or a 100% chance (wizard goes first) of casting a spell, depending on inititiative. They saved their jaunt, if they have it, because why not save it. The wizard can dump intelligence, because they're probably using damage-roll spells, not SOL/SOS spells, for stat consolidation.

Backbiter ironically did the most damage (2d4 +4, 6-12, average 9) next to Reserves of Power Magic Missile (4d4 +4, average 14). If the wizard takes their second feat as Reserves of Power, they could down the fighter in two spells more often than not, but they'd take one more standard-action attack (negated with Backbiter) and have to cast defensively one more time (15% chance of failure). That leads to the wizard matchup looking like:

Wizard goes first: Backbiter (100% success rate), block attack with Backbiter, cast defensively (85% success rate), hopefully deal a cumulative 15 damage (6d4 +8, 14-32, average 23, more than an 84% success rate)

Fighter goes first: Attack (55% success rate, ends matchup if successful), wizard has to cast defensively or else lose their spell (15% success rate, probably wins matchup if wizard fails, cumulative ~62% success rate), attack (lost to Backbiter), wizard has to cast defensively or else lose their spell (15% success rate, probably wins matchup if wizard fails, cumulative 68% success rate).

Assuming equal initiative, that the wizard takes a conjuration focus to prevent the fighter from trading out Deformity (Tall) for Combat Reflexes, it seems like the matchups are thus:

Psychic Min-Max Schrodinger's Level 1 Wizard: 58%

Psychic Min-Max Schrodinger's Level 1 Fighter: 42%

This, of course, didn't allow for the fighter spending their turn one attack as a melee touch attack to try to initiate a grapple. There is an alternative fighter who focuses entirely on grappling and initiative to try to ensure they go first and lock down the wizard. However, the wizard would then gain access to Nerveskitter, so I think the fighter actually wins initiative slightly less often, and the fighter straight-up loses if the wizard goes first, so I don't actually think this helps the matchup very much.

[However, it is of note that the wizard needs to have specifically Backbiter, Magic Missile, and the feats Combat Casting and Reserves of Power in order for this to work. A wizard missing one of those elements will see their win rate drop significantly.]

Because the fighter has a better chance of going first than the wizard (jaunt precludes the use of nerveskitter) the fighter simply readies an action. Uses his aoo to disrupt the spell. The tower shield causes a 50% spell failure, so using that is well... silly. If the fighter goes first, juant can't activate due to flat footed. And hitting a wizard's flat footed ac? Simple. Assuming mage armor? AC 14. Our fighter needs an 8. Since he has a 2 point init bonus, we have 65% of 60% which is a 40% chance to just end it outright with the wizard never getting a turn. Now juant activates. The fighter has an aoo. We got him to 15 foot reach. Jaunt does not get away successfully. So jaunt, 5 foot step and... color spray auto fails due to out of range. Sleep fails as elf. Power Word pain? Ok. We might go down. But so will you. Your trick with the magic missle has a 50% chance of disabling us or defeating us. That's 50% of 40%.... or 20%. Then you fail the rest automatically. With a 40% initial victory chance, you're sunk. Combat reflexes wins this, flat out.

[Doctor Despair]

Because the fighter has a better chance of going first than the wizard (jaunt precludes the use of nerveskitter)

Does he? Neither of them have free feats for Improved Initiative and they could both have 18 dex. They'd have identical initiative, right? And you're right that the wizard can't use Nerveskitter, but that's because both their level 1 spells have to be prepared for other spells, not because they need the immediate action. They don't actually jaunt in this whole matchup, but they need to be a conjuration wizard so that the fighter needs to have a spiked whip and deformity (tall).

the fighter simply readies an action. Uses his aoo to disrupt the spell.

That's true if the fighter goes first, but there's no advantage to doing so. The fighter could attack the wizard with 14 AC, killing if he hits -- or he could ready an action to attack if the wizard casts a spell. At that point, it is the wizard's turn.

Now with 18 AC, the wizard can try to walk out of the fighter's range, triggering one AOO with 18 AC. Then, having gotten out of the fighter's range, the wizard can drop the tower shield as a free action and cast without needing to make the defensive casting check.

Now, this is only because the fighter readied the readied attack on "if the wizard casts a spell." If the fighter changes it to "if the wizard takes any action," then the wizard would take a five-foot step and take a readied attack at 18 AC (again, instead of their 14-AC flat-footed AC); then, the wizard could drop the shield as a free action and defensively cast. This actually makes the math worse for the fighter, because he had to make his one attack against an 18 AC wizard instead of a 14 AC wizard when he was flat-footed.

Overall, the math either doesn't change if the fighter readies an action, or gets worse, as the fighter gets the same number of attacks against a target who is no longer flat-footed.

The tower shield causes a 50% spell failure, so using that is well... silly.

Yeah, the wizard has to drop the shield before they cast spells, for sure. The tower shield is there so that the wizard's AC is 14 if the fighter goes first, and 18 if the wizard has to walk out of the fighter's range due to readied actions or something.

If the fighter goes first, juant can't activate due to flat footed. And hitting a wizard's flat footed ac? Simple. Assuming mage armor? AC 14. Our fighter needs an 8.

So the wizard's flat-footed is 14AC with the tower shield, not Mage Armor, but the number to-hit would 9, right? 9+5? I just realized that in my initial calculations, I used +4 for the fighter, not +5, as I forgot to add their BAB, so it should be a 60% success rate, not 55% as I said originally, but why are you using +6? We don't have WBL for a masterwork weapon.

Since he has a 2 point init bonus, we have 65% of 60% which is a 40% chance to just end it outright with the wizard never getting a turn. Now juant activates. The fighter has an aoo. We got him to 15 foot reach. Jaunt does not get away successfully. So jaunt, 5 foot step and... color spray auto fails due to out of range. Sleep fails as elf. Power Word pain? Ok. We might go down. But so will you. Your trick with the magic missle has a 50% chance of disabling us or defeating us. That's 50% of 40%.... or 20%. Then you fail the rest automatically. With a 40% initial victory chance, you're sunk. Combat reflexes wins this, flat out.

Did you read the latter half of the post? So if the fighter goes first, the turns would play out like this, optimally.

Fighter wins initiative. As the wizard is flat-footed and has 14 AC instead of 18, he attacks, with a 60% success rate. If it hits, the wizard presumably goes down. If it misses, the fighter passes initiative to the wizard.

The wizard casts defensively, passing the check 85% of the time (failing 15% of the time). If they fail the check, they no longer have the firepower to reliably down this fighter, so the match goes to the fighter most of the time. If they pass their check, they cast Backbiter. (So of the 40% of matchups where the wizard is still in it, they now flunk out a further 15% of that, falling to 34% effectiveness).

The fighter explicitly has no knowledge of this spell's effect. They attack, and their attack turns back on them, dealing an average of 9 damage. Their turn is wasted.

The wizard casts defensively again (85% successrate, or 15% failrate) to do the Reserves of Power'd Magic Missile, dealing an average of 14 damage. This defensive casting must succeed as well, or the wizard fails more often than not. This spell also must down the fighter. On average, these two spells will deal 23 damage to the fighter's 14hp. (Of the 34% of matchups where the wizard makes it to this point, they fail a further 15% of the time, going down to 29% instead of the originally calculated 32%.)

So if the fighter goes first, they win 71% of the time.

However, if the wizard goes first, they can play it just the same way, but without needing to deal with the attack of opportunity. Remember, the fighter cannot have spiked whip proficiency and combat reflexes. The wizard would then win 84% of the time.

Assuming equal initiative, cumulatively, that results in:


Fighter Winrate: 43.5%

Wizard Winrate: 56.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Edit:
For reference, the wizard needs an 11 intelligence, and this math was done with 18 con, so I suppose the most even-numbered dex the wizard could have is 16, giving the fighter a +1 initiative advantage (if the fighter has a hypothetical 18 dex, 18 strength, 18 con with some sort of superior point-buy).

So the wizard's AC would go down 1, and the wizard's initiative would go down 1... So if the wizard goes first, their winrate actually remains unchanged. If the fighter goes first and gets their one attack off, their chances actually go up to 65% off the bat, instead of 60%, which would work out to... 74.7% chance of fighter victory, rather than 71%. So final numbers change to:


Fighter Winrate: 45.4

Wizard Winrate: 54.6

^ That's with equal initiative. We can adjust this up or down for what stats the fighter chooses (e.g., if they choose higher dex and lower con, or higher con and lower dex)

A full dex fighter would then go first 55% of the time, so the final results would look something like... a mathematical translation that I'm not 100% sure how to do accurately. It'll be close.

The wizard could also bring con down to 16, and pump dex up to 18. I'm honestly not sure which one would be better because I'm not sure how to handle the math on this initiative.

It's also complicated in that I'm not sure exactly what the fighter's stats will be. The fighter definitely wants 18 strength, but do they want 18 con, or 18 dex? Dex helps them go first, but they need 18 con to survive the wizard's min damage rolls (14), and if they tank con too much, the wizard might be able to justify starting with mage armor active and just blasting the fighter with the magic missile to start with...

[Calthropstu]

Does he? Neither of them have free feats for Improved Initiative and they could both have 18 dex. They'd have identical initiative, right? And you're right that the wizard can't use Nerveskitter, but that's because both their level 1 spells have to be prepared for other spells, not because they need the immediate action. They don't actually jaunt in this whole matchup, but they need to be a conjuration wizard so that the fighter needs to have a spiked whip and deformity (tall).



That's true if the fighter goes first, but there's no advantage to doing so. The fighter could attack the wizard with 14 AC, killing if he hits -- or he could ready an action to attack if the wizard casts a spell. At that point, it is the wizard's turn.

Now with 18 AC, the wizard can try to walk out of the fighter's range, triggering one AOO with 18 AC. Then, having gotten out of the fighter's range, the wizard can drop the tower shield as a free action and cast without needing to make the defensive casting check.

Now, this is only because the fighter readied the readied attack on "if the wizard casts a spell." If the fighter changes it to "if the wizard takes any action," then the wizard would take a five-foot step and take a readied attack at 18 AC (again, instead of their 14-AC flat-footed AC); then, the wizard could drop the shield as a free action and defensively cast. This actually makes the math worse for the fighter, because he had to make his one attack against an 18 AC wizard instead of a 14 AC wizard when he was flat-footed.

Overall, the math either doesn't change if the fighter readies an action, or gets worse, as the fighter gets the same number of attacks against a target who is no longer flat-footed.



Yeah, the wizard has to drop the shield before they cast spells, for sure. The tower shield is there so that the wizard's AC is 14 if the fighter goes first, and 18 if the wizard has to walk out of the fighter's range due to readied actions or something.



So the wizard's flat-footed is 14AC with the tower shield, not Mage Armor, but the number to-hit would 9, right? 9+5? I just realized that in my initial calculations, I used +4 for the fighter, not +5, as I forgot to add their BAB, so it should be a 60% success rate, not 55% as I said originally, but why are you using +6? We don't have WBL for a masterwork weapon.



Did you read the latter half of the post? So if the fighter goes first, the turns would play out like this, optimally.

Fighter wins initiative. As the wizard is flat-footed and has 14 AC instead of 18, he attacks, with a 60% success rate. If it hits, the wizard presumably goes down. If it misses, the fighter passes initiative to the wizard.

The wizard casts defensively, passing the check 85% of the time (failing 15% of the time). If they fail the check, they no longer have the firepower to reliably down this fighter, so the match goes to the fighter most of the time. If they pass their check, they cast Backbiter. (So of the 40% of matchups where the wizard is still in it, they now flunk out a further 15% of that, falling to 34% effectiveness).

The fighter explicitly has no knowledge of this spell's effect. They attack, and their attack turns back on them, dealing an average of 9 damage. Their turn is wasted.

The wizard casts defensively again (85% successrate, or 15% failrate) to do the Reserves of Power'd Magic Missile, dealing an average of 14 damage. This defensive casting must succeed as well, or the wizard fails more often than not. This spell also must down the fighter. On average, these two spells will deal 23 damage to the fighter's 14hp. (Of the 34% of matchups where the wizard makes it to this point, they fail a further 15% of the time, going down to 29% instead of the originally calculated 32%.)

So if the fighter goes first, they win 71% of the time.

However, if the wizard goes first, they can play it just the same way, but without needing to deal with the attack of opportunity. Remember, the fighter cannot have spiked whip proficiency and combat reflexes. The wizard would then win 84% of the time.

Assuming equal initiative, cumulatively, that results in:


Fighter Winrate: 43.5%

Wizard Winrate: 56.5%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Edit:
For reference, the wizard needs an 11 intelligence, and this math was done with 18 con, so I suppose the most even-numbered dex the wizard could have is 16, giving the fighter a +1 initiative advantage (if the fighter has a hypothetical 18 dex, 18 strength, 18 con with some sort of superior point-buy).

So the wizard's AC would go down 1, and the wizard's initiative would go down 1... So if the wizard goes first, their winrate actually remains unchanged. If the fighter goes first and gets their one attack off, their chances actually go up to 65% off the bat, instead of 60%, which would work out to... 74.7% chance of fighter victory, rather than 71%. So final numbers change to:


Fighter Winrate: 45.4

Wizard Winrate: 54.6

^ That's with equal initiative. We can adjust this up or down for what stats the fighter chooses (e.g., if they choose higher dex and lower con, or higher con and lower dex)

A full dex fighter would then go first 55% of the time, so the final results would look something like... a mathematical translation that I'm not 100% sure how to do accurately. It'll be close.

The wizard could also bring con down to 16, and pump dex up to 18. I'm honestly not sure which one would be better because I'm not sure how to handle the math on this initiative.

It's also complicated in that I'm not sure exactly what the fighter's stats will be. The fighter definitely wants 18 strength, but do they want 18 con, or 18 dex? Dex helps them go first, but they need 18 con to survive the wizard's min damage rolls (14), and if they tank con too much, the wizard might be able to justify starting with mage armor active and just blasting the fighter with the magic missile to start with...

The dc to cast defensively is 16. With 4 ranks and +2 con bonus (max... less is more likely) your chance of success is 50%. Where are you getting an 85% success rate?

[Doctor Despair]

Alternatively, the wizard could just cast defensively. With combat casting, the wizard could have as much as 4 ranks, a +4 from their con, and +4 from the class, leaving them with a 15% chance to fail their level 1 spell, or 10% chance to fail their level 0. A wizard with con maxed like this will have to sacrifice int (saves) or dex (initiative) however. It does save a level 1 spell that we would have used on mage armor, but it lowers our odds if the fighter goes first, so we probably save the feat slot.

DC 16

4 ranks, Combat Casting (+4), 18 con (+4) = 12 bonus

Relative roll needed to pass: 4

3/20 are fails, or 15%


Edit:
As is quoted in the post, the sample wizard here has 12 or 14 int, 16 dex, and 18 con. They could swap the dex and con, raising the fail chance on defensive casting to 20%, but I'm not sure if that's optimal in exchange for the initiative boost. It might be.

The 12 int is needed to get a bonus spell. It doesn't hurt us to have it that low, though, because none of the spells we use here scale with int, and we don't use abrupt jaunt. 14 int would give us two uses, and we have the stats to spare, so why not.

[Calthropstu]

DC 16

4 ranks, Combat Casting (+4), 18 con (+4) = 12 bonus

Relative roll needed to pass: 4

3/20 are fails, or 15%


Edit:
As is quoted in the post, the sample wizard here has 12 or 14 int, 16 dex, and 18 con. They could swap the dex and con, raising the fail chance on defensive casting to 20%, but I'm not sure if that's optimal in exchange for the initiative boost. It might be.

The 12 int is needed to get a bonus spell. It doesn't hurt us to have it that low, though, because none of the spells we use here scale with int, and we don't use abrupt jaunt. 14 int would give us two uses, and we have the stats to spare, so why not.

Where are you getting 18 con from? I thought the stats were 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 10. If you're going human for the extra feat, you don't HAVE an 18.

Edit: nevermind. There was zero discussion on stat limitation.

So my elf fighter has 18 str, 20 dex, 18 int, 16 con, 18 int, 18 wis, 18 cha...

[Doctor Despair]

Where are you getting 18 con from? I thought the stats were 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 10. If you're going human for the extra feat, you don't HAVE an 18.

I was using 32 point buy.

Str 8
Dex 16
Con 18
Int 14
Wis 8
Cha 8

Where did you get those stats come from? Obviously that'd affect the matchup, although the wizard can afford to go down 2 points in int without changing the math.

Edit: nevermind. There was zero discussion on stat limitation.

So my elf fighter has 18 str, 20 dex, 18 int, 16 con, 18 int, 18 wis, 18 cha...

OK, that's a little silly with regard to the point buy, but if we're totally honest, apart from the initiative difference, that actually doesn't change the math. The fighter has the same to-hit, the wizard never actually rolls against the fighter's stats, and actually the fighter has less con than the math accounted for, so the spells 100% take him out with min damage instead of having a chance to leave him disabled.

However, as it's an elf fighter, it loses a feat, which means we no longer have one of our vile feats. So the fighter either loses tall, which means the wizard can use abrupt jaunt to dodge his melee attack and avoiding have to defensively cast, or the fighter loses immunity to mind-affecting, putting color spray back into play, letting us start with mage armor and buff the wizard's win chances again. The fighter really has to be human; they already don't have enough feats to have combat reflexes without losing more.

[Quertus]

Next dumb questions: 1st level Fighter gets more WBL than 1st level Wizard (). No, he can't have a masterwork weapon, but…

Would he benefit from "higher ground" (by being mounted, or even on a soap box - Wizard has to move, and cannot benefit from said soap box as easily)?

Would he benefit from a Potion of Shield (is any winning Wizard build shut down this way) or Faith Heal?

[Doctor Despair]

Next dumb questions: 1st level Fighter gets more WBL than 1st level Wizard (). No, he can't have a masterwork weapon, but…

Would he benefit from "higher ground" (by being mounted, or even on a soap box - Wizard has to move, and cannot benefit from said soap box as easily)?

Would he benefit from a Potion of Shield (is any winning Wizard build shut down this way) or Faith Heal?

Is there a circumstantial attack bonus to the high ground? It seems like something 5e would grant advantage for, but I'm not sure 3.5 has a mechanic like that. The fighter can already reach the wizard, and doesn't have spare feats for mounted charge mechanics or anything. I'm not sure that a mount would help.

As for potions... the fighter can actually get Shield for free from visiting that Aberrant Dragonmark magical location from that thread earlier today. It's region-specific to Eberron, it looks like, but let's give it to him.

So the fighter could activate it as an SLA instead of attacking. I suppose the problem here is that the fighter wouldn't know what spells the wizard had prepared (e.g., to know that there was a magic missile coming), and even if they did, they would be faced with a choice: attack with a 60% chance of just winning that turn, or use that SLA (technically giving the wizard an AOO, funnily enough) to block a magic missile they may or may not psychically know is coming in a turn or two.

However, let's say they did do that. The wizard wouldn't be able to use Magic Missile for 10 rounds, so I suppose that would mean the wizard would have to run? The fighter would get a bunch of AOOs.

Alternatively, as we're optimizing, I suppose the wizard could just use a different spell that scales with caster level. Backbiter did 9 average damage, iirc, so the fighter has somewhere between 1 and 5 hp remaining. Rain of Stones instead of Magic Missile would also do it (4d4 no save no roll instead of the 4d4 +4 magic missile would have offered). Heck, the wizard could technically use another Backbiter instead, and free up another feat for Improved Initiative, since we aren't using Reserves of Power there.

As for potions, I'm not sure there are any that are worth the stanard action or whichever action it would be to drink it (as that means making one fewer attack). Mage Armor could technically be active, I suppose, although the wizard never tries to break the fighter's AC, so that's a wash.

... Actually... there is one thing the fighter could do. This is actually kind of hilarious that it hasn't come up. The fighter can chug their way through their WBL and use a TON of cure light wounds potions. The wizard will run out of spells before they run out of potions. The wizard could try to stay adjacent to the fighter, but the fighter could five-foot step away to do so and avoid the AOOs to stop them. Does the wizard even have enough damage at that point to stop the fighter? They get two level ones and three level 0s. The level 0s will do 9 damage at most, and the level 1s seem like 9 is pretty generous. The mage wants combat casting, so that means they don't have the feat slots for the precocious apprentice/fiery burst trick. Does a wizard have good answers to a fighter that decides they want to buy their weapon, and then 3 or 4 cure light wounds potions?

Edit:
Or Faith Heal like you pointed out; objectively better than Cure Light. So the fighter, if they have time to drink each potion, has effectively 14 + (9 * potions) HP. The wizard, rolling max on a Backbiter and Reserves of Power'd Hail of Stones, would deal 29 damage, and then 9 for all three of their level 0 spells (max damage acid splash), for a cumulative 38. If the fighter could drink three potions, that would give them enough HP to tank all that, and then attack the wizard.

[Calthropstu]

I was using 32 point buy.

Str 8
Dex 16
Con 18
Int 14
Wis 8
Cha 8

Where did you get those stats come from? Obviously that'd affect the matchup, although the wizard can afford to go down 2 points in int without changing the math.



OK, that's a little silly with regard to the point buy, but if we're totally honest, apart from the initiative difference, that actually doesn't change the math. The fighter has the same to-hit, the wizard never actually rolls against the fighter's stats, and actually the fighter has less con than the math accounted for, so the spells 100% take him out with min damage instead of having a chance to leave him disabled.

However, as it's an elf fighter, it loses a feat, which means we no longer have one of our vile feats. So the fighter either loses tall, which means the wizard can use abrupt jaunt to dodge his melee attack and avoiding have to defensively cast, or the fighter loses immunity to mind-affecting, putting color spray back into play, letting us start with mage armor and buff the wizard's win chances again. The fighter really has to be human; they already don't have enough feats to have combat reflexes without losing more.

I was obviously joking, though +4 on the will save and iron will turns that dc 12 color spray into a 75% success rate for the fighter.

32 point buy eh? We need the 18 str to auto take out the wizard in 1 shot. 14 con because we need the hp and 16 dex.
Since we are doing schrodingers fighter, we need to take starting wealth into consideration. So a brooch of shielding blocking 4 points of MM damage is 60 gold. Your 14 damage is now 10. So we survive your massive damage. But you are schrodinger's wizard right? So you cast defensively and fail 15% of the time, reducing our hp absorption by 3.5 with a MM. Now your last ditch effort has a better chance. We get a turn. We slam you with an attack, with a 65% chance of death. Now you go. Again, a 15% failure chance, hitting us with your big gun. We have 12 hp and .5 hp from the brooch.

You have a 49% chance of failing to kill the fighter. So what do you do?

[Calthropstu]

Is there a circumstantial attack bonus to the high ground? It seems like something 5e would grant advantage for, but I'm not sure 3.5 has a mechanic like that. The fighter can already reach the wizard, and doesn't have spare feats for mounted charge mechanics or anything. I'm not sure that a mount would help.

As for potions... the fighter can actually get Shield for free from visiting that Aberrant Dragonmark magical location from that thread earlier today. It's region-specific to Eberron, it looks like, but let's give it to him.

So the fighter could activate it as an SLA instead of attacking. I suppose the problem here is that the fighter wouldn't know what spells the wizard had prepared (e.g., to know that there was a magic missile coming), and even if they did, they would be faced with a choice: attack with a 60% chance of just winning that turn, or use that SLA (technically giving the wizard an AOO, funnily enough) to block a magic missile they may or may not psychically know is coming in a turn or two.

However, let's say they did do that. The wizard wouldn't be able to use Magic Missile for 10 rounds, so I suppose that would mean the wizard would have to run? The fighter would get a bunch of AOOs.

Alternatively, as we're optimizing, I suppose the wizard could just use a different spell that scales with caster level. Backbiter did 9 average damage, iirc, so the fighter has somewhere between 1 and 5 hp remaining. Rain of Stones instead of Magic Missile would also do it (4d4 no save no roll instead of the 4d4 +4 magic missile would have offered). Heck, the wizard could technically use another Backbiter instead, and free up another feat for Improved Initiative, since we aren't using Reserves of Power there.

As for potions, I'm not sure there are any that are worth the stanard action or whichever action it would be to drink it (as that means making one fewer attack). Mage Armor could technically be active, I suppose, although the wizard never tries to break the fighter's AC, so that's a wash.

... Actually... there is one thing the fighter could do. This is actually kind of hilarious that it hasn't come up. The fighter can chug their way through their WBL and use a TON of cure light wounds potions. The wizard will run out of spells before they run out of potions. The wizard could try to stay adjacent to the fighter, but the fighter could five-foot step away to do so and avoid the AOOs to stop them. Does the wizard even have enough damage at that point to stop the fighter? They get two level ones and three level 0s. The level 0s will do 9 damage at most, and the level 1s seem like 9 is pretty generous. The mage wants combat casting, so that means they don't have the feat slots for the precocious apprentice/fiery burst trick. Does a wizard have good answers to a fighter that decides they want to buy their weapon, and then 3 or 4 cure light wounds potions?

Edit:
Or Faith Heal like you pointed out; objectively better than Cure Light. So the fighter, if they have time to drink each potion, has effectively 14 + (9 * potions) HP. The wizard, rolling max on a Backbiter and Reserves of Power'd Hail of Stones, would deal 29 damage, and then 9 for all three of their level 0 spells (max damage acid splash), for a cumulative 38. If the fighter could drink three potions, that would give them enough HP to tank all that, and then attack the wizard.

True.

Also, since we are doing schrodinger, the fighter drops his weapon upon backbiter being cast. Then, he draws another weapon and attacks. Kinda defeats that spell completely.

[Doctor Despair]

I was obviously joking, though +4 on the will save and iron will turns that dc 12 color spray into a 75% success rate for the fighter.

32 point buy eh? We need the 18 str to auto take out the wizard in 1 shot. 14 con because we need the hp and 16 dex.
Since we are doing schrodingers fighter, we need to take starting wealth into consideration. So a brooch of shielding blocking 4 points of MM damage is 60 gold. Your 14 damage is now 10. So we survive your massive damage. But you are schrodinger's wizard right? So you cast defensively and fail 15% of the time, reducing our hp absorption by 3.5 with a MM. Now your last ditch effort has a better chance. We get a turn. We slam you with an attack, with a 65% chance of death. Now you go. Again, a 15% failure chance, hitting us with your big gun. We have 12 hp and .5 hp from the brooch.

You have a 49% chance of failing to kill the fighter. So what do you do?

OK, so that's no initiative bonus, and the fighter has 12 hp.

Backbiter does 9 on average (6-12), so that's 0hp-6hp remaining, average 3.

Magic Missile with Reserves of Power would do an average of 14 (8-20), but with that item reducing it by 4 points, it becomes an average of 10, as you said.

We are overvaluing Magic Missile. I misread the spell -- it doesn't get an extra ray for every caster level. It's an extra ray for every two caster levels beyond the first. Not the spell we want. Let's stick with Hail of Stone for now. Conveniently, it is also an average of 10 damage (4-16). We could also do a second Backbiter, as that avoids another attack, and allows us the chance to use a level 0 spell to do 1-3 damage (average 2) in case we rolled min damage on our first Backbiter and Hail of Stone has a chance not to finish...

However, that we aren't using Magic Missile isn't the death knell for the fighter. As someone pointed out above, we can down healing potions to increase the fighter's effective HP. Since the fighter is immune to mind-affecting spells, there are no SOS/SOL spells we need to fear at these levels, so once the wizard is out of spell slots, that's all she wrote. Is there anything the wizard can do to stop the fighter from five-foot stepping away and drinking potion after potion every time they take damage?

True.

Also, since we are doing schrodinger, the fighter drops his weapon upon backbiter being cast. Then, he draws another weapon and attacks. Kinda defeats that spell completely.

The fighter explicitly wouldn't have knowledge of the effect on their weapon, so I don't think they'd drop the weapon and draw a second one; not without a spellcraft check anyway, I suppose. There's an argument to be made, however, that they might drop their weapon and go for a touch attack. However, once the fighter went to grapple, the wizard could Abrupt Jaunt out of range to avoid that.

On the one hand, the fighter has chosen not to use their weapon for the rest of the combat, which is undeniably good for the wizard. They don't have improved unarmed strike, or improved grapple, or anything like that, so there's a lot of AOOs the fighter is going to trigger, which could be free damage for the wizard.

On the other hand, the wizard is out of one of their spells. I suppose the wizard could use all their level 0 spells until the fighter is down to 9hp, and then try a Reserves of Power'd Hail of Stones as a finisher (average 10), and hope that'd be sufficient.

However, as pointed out above in this post, the fighter could drink a bunch of potions to tank through the wizard's damage. I'm not sure the wizard even has enough damage to finish the fighter off if they don't "waste" a spell on Backbiter.

[Calthropstu]

OK, so that's no initiative bonus, and the fighter has 12 hp.

Backbiter does 9 on average (6-12), so that's 0hp-6hp remaining, average 3.

Magic Missile with Reserves of Power would do an average of 14 (8-20), but with that item reducing it by 4 points, it becomes an average of 10, as you said.

We are overvaluing Magic Missile. I misread the spell -- it doesn't get an extra ray for every caster level. It's an extra ray for every two caster levels beyond the first. Not the spell we want. Let's stick with Hail of Stone for now. Conveniently, it is also an average of 10 damage (4-16). We could also do a second Backbiter, as that avoids another attack, and allows us the chance to use a level 0 spell to do 1-3 damage (average 2) in case we rolled min damage on our first Backbiter and Hail of Stone has a chance not to finish...

However, that we aren't using Magic Missile isn't the death knell for the fighter. As someone pointed out above, we can down healing potions to increase the fighter's effective HP. Since the fighter is immune to mind-affecting spells, there are no SOS/SOL spells we need to fear at these levels, so once the wizard is out of spell slots, that's all she wrote. Is there anything the wizard can do to stop the fighter from five-foot stepping away and drinking potion after potion every time they take damage?



The fighter explicitly wouldn't have knowledge of the effect on their weapon, so I don't think they'd drop the weapon and draw a second one; not without a spellcraft check anyway, I suppose. There's an argument to be made, however, that they might drop their weapon and go for a touch attack. However, once the fighter went to grapple, the wizard could Abrupt Jaunt out of range to avoid that.

On the one hand, the fighter has chosen not to use their weapon for the rest of the combat, which is undeniably good for the wizard. They don't have improved unarmed strike, or improved grapple, or anything like that, so there's a lot of AOOs the fighter is going to trigger, which could be free damage for the wizard.

On the other hand, the wizard is out of one of their spells. I suppose the wizard could use all their level 0 spells until the fighter is down to 9hp, and then try a Reserves of Power'd Hail of Stones as a finisher (average 10), and hope that'd be sufficient.

However, as pointed out above in this post, the fighter could drink a bunch of potions to tank through the wizard's damage. I'm not sure the wizard even has enough damage to finish the fighter off if they don't "waste" a spell on Backbiter.

So we can get a 40% chance to completely avoid backbiter. Or just say "I know backbiter exists, so I will switch weapons every round." If we are going strictly raw with schrodinger, this is perfectly viable. Backbiter is defeated.

[Doctor Despair]

So we can get a 40% chance to completely avoid backbiter. Or just say "I know backbiter exists, so I will switch weapons every round." If we are going strictly raw with schrodinger, this is perfectly viable. Backbiter is defeated.

I suppose that's fair. A fighter could be trained to drop their weapon and draw a new one on each action, or more conservatively, whenever the wizard casts a spell that has an effect the fighter can't immediately determine with a spot check. That was a high-damaging spell, so that helps the fighter's odds even more with the potion-drinking strategy.

[Quertus]

AFB; IIRC, "higher ground" (including "on a mount") grants a +1 to hit.

However, the "drinking problem" Fighter apparently does not benefit from a soap box, as he may need to move, too.

[emeraldstreak]

Potion of Shield does not exist. It's a personal range spell.

[emeraldstreak]

Precocious Apprentice for Scorching Ray could be a better choice for blasting. For two more feats it can be Suddenly Maximized. Winning initiative won't be a problem as such a wizard can take Improved Initiative, hummingbird, and Neverskitter. No good way to avoid the AoO, though.


Meanwhile, Blockade + Bend Spell + metamagic reduction is almost surefire way to stop the AoO. The only counter I can think of is Pursue, but it requires Action Points from Eberron. Such a wizard won't have enough feats for Sudden Maximize, though. Blockade also rules out Neverskitter.



EDIT: actually Bend Spell isn't a must. Sooo:

Precocious Apprentice(1st level) + irrelevant Metamagic feat (Strongheart Halfling) + Sudden Maximize (worshipping Evil) + Improved Initiative (in place of Scribe Scroll). Familiar for +Initiative.

- win Initiative
- make a 5ft step diagonally
- swiftly cast Blockade on the starting spot so that non-total cover is established v the Fighter. That's enough to block AoOs.
- cast Suddenly Maximized Scorching Ray

[Doctor Despair]

Precocious Apprentice(1st level) + irrelevant Metamagic feat (Strongheart Halfling) + Sudden Maximize (worshipping Evil) + Improved Initiative (in place of Scribe Scroll). Familiar for +Initiative.

- win Initiative
- make a 5ft step diagonally
- swiftly cast Blockade on the starting spot so that non-total cover is established v the Fighter. That's enough to block AoOs.
- cast Suddenly Maximized Scorching Ray

* We need the conjuration focus so that the fighter needs to have deformity (tall). If we trade it out, we are vulnerable to grappling and the fighter can just take Improved Initiative with their extra feat

* Elder Evil worship only grants specific vile feats, so Sudden Maximize is out :/

* Actually casting your Apprentice spell requires a DC8 caster level check, so you lose your spell (and the.match) 30% of the time

* You also need a touch attack for Ray, so you miss that at least roughly half the time, losing the match

* Scorching Ray does 4d6, average 14. Without Sudden Maximize, our fire resist 5 will keep us up most of the time.

------

Potion of Shield does not exist. It's a personal range spell.

The fighter can get it from a magical location (or rather, get the aberrant dragonmark that grants it from a magical location). However, the wizard isn't using Magic Missiles and won't need to break the fighter's non-touch AC in most situations, so it's a little moot.

[Twurps]

Just hopping back in to say:
Hilarious how 'in combat healing' seems to saving the day for the fighter. :)

Also hilarious how that is so much 'not intuitive' for everybody that it took us forever to think of.

On a serious note: WBL seems to be getting very relevant (why would we be surprised). A wizard starting with 75 gold, having to buy a tower shield, spellbook and component pouch has 25GP's left by my math. Certainly enough to buy a simple weapon to threaten those all important AoO's, but decent ranged weapons such as a crossbow are out. Which is important for our 'drinking problem fighter'

[Doctor Despair]

Of course, that's assuming no third party/dragon mag stuff. With third party stuff, I'm pretty sure the wizard wins way more often with Easy Metamagic/Fell Drain/Level 0 no-save no-roll 1 damage spells. Five foot step, blockade, ping with a negative level.

To get Enduring Life and have a chance to draw, the fighter has to give up a feat -- probably madness or tall/EWP -- which lets the wizard either stall out for damage with Abrupt Jaunt again, or use Color Spray to stall out the game until Enduring Life runs out. Then, the wizard has the flight option again, as they could ping the fighter with a negative level from the air and then fly away.