Craziest Idea Mafia

[Rogan]

I'm also finding it hard to correctly refer to generic bad factions. I'm leaning toward "baddies", since I've never liked the feel of "scum".
But y'all can presume I might use wolf, wolfy, or mafia to mean any of the baddie factions. I think I've tended to capitalize Mafia or Werewolf in this game, if I'm meaning that particular faction. But feel free to ask if it really matters for interpretation.

- - - Updated - - -

If votes suddenly move there at end of Day, I'd be curious about the interpretation. I'm game. Valmark, have at ye!

To clarify, I see that Mafia and Werewolf are basically the same thing with different hats. It was just an idle observation for something outside of the big wagons.

About the votes. Has anyone kept a list about who reached which number first?
If I am up-to-date, flat is at 8 and r_a is at 7.
Who was at 7 first?

[Unavenger]

Day 1 End

Please wait for votes to be counted.

[Captain Cap]

Given rogue_alchemist's claim, my vote stays where it is.

---

Votes:

Valmark (3): Book Wombat, Xihirli, JeenLeen
flat_footed (11): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap, rogue_alchemist, totadileplay, AvatarVecna, Aventine, Elenna
rogue_alchemist (6): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, flat_footed

No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

- - - Updated - - -

I see I'm late...

[AvatarVecna]

Okay flat_footed seems to be the only other major wagon to switch to given how close we are to EOD. I'm not super convinced by r_a's claim but we're probably better off waiting and seeing his claimed scry results. Although I'm a little paranoid that he's an alien.


Interesting that you're suggesting always going for the top wagon (seer claims aside) - wouldn't that just make it easier for other factions to block the vig kill? Or am I misunderstanding your suggestion?

That's the downside to the plan, more or less. Your options are "follow your own gut" or "follow town's gut via lynch results". The former is hard to predict and counter, but is generally less likely to hit scum because people aren't good at the game. The former is more likely to hit scum, but is easier to screw with because it's predictable. However, in a game like this, it's not going to necessarily get blocked, and if it does get blocked, that's not necessarily alignment indicative. At that point we're really getting into the wine, though. The most likely reason such a kill would be blocked is that the target (who has reason to believe they're the target) would be scum, and be baned by their team. Not every scumteam is necessarily going to have a baner. We know where town protective should be aiming tonight, so if the vig kill fails, it's likely because of a scumbaner.

[Unavenger]

AvatarVecna voted FLAT_FOOTED
Valmark voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Bathatcat voted FLAT_FOOTED
Snowblaze voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
CaoimhinTheCape voted FLAT_FOOTED
Book Wombat voted VALMARK
Elenna voted FLAT_FOOTED
Xihirli voted VALMARK
totadileplayz voted FLAT_FOOTED
rogue_alchemist voted FLAT_FOOTED
MornShine voted FLAT_FOOTED
gac3 voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
bladescape voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Aventine voted FLAT_FOOTED
JeenLeen voted VALMARK
EmmyNecromancer REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY
Rogan voted FLAT_FOOTED
flat_footed voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Apogee1 voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Caerulea voted FLAT_FOOTED
Captain Cap voted FLAT_FOOTED

flat_footed recieved 11 votes
rogue_alchemist recieved 6 votes
Valmark recieved 3 votes
1 player refuced to participate in the corrupt institution of democracy.

flat_footed died today. He was executed. flat_footed's role was Alien Overseer.

Night 1 Start

This phase will end at 19:00 BST, 10/07/2021.

[JeenLeen]

flat_footed died today. He was executed. flat_footed's role was Alien Overseer.

Well, that yields some info.
Also noteworthy that Aliens are the only faction that could communicate privately during the Day. While I'd believe flat_footed may have been inactive there as well, it's possible/probable he was coordinating with his team a little bit and staying quiet public.

It's not pro-Town to speculate a ton on what this means for who is likely/maybe what, but... well, glad we didn't get a townie, as that would yield almost no useful info.

[Rogan]

Got a powerful hostile info gathering role. Good.

We are allowed to talk at night, right?
Not necessarily a good idea, but allowed?

[Unavenger]

Got a powerful hostile info gathering role. Good.

We are allowed to talk at night, right?
Not necessarily a good idea, but allowed?

Yes, you may talk in this thread at any time.

[JeenLeen]

Consolidating some public information for mine and perhaps others' ease.

Claims
EmmyNecromancer: Town JOAT
rogue_alchemist: Town Investigative
bladescape: Town Killing



I'm kinda debating if I should claim. Not sure if that would be the wise and/or fun.

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Quotes from flat

Show

Someone made the point earlier that votes on me tend to loosen my tongue. Yeah, ok, can't deny that. Just forgive my posting on mobile, so quoting is problematic. I'll do my best to address thoughts without sounding too disjointed. I'll either edit this post or create others depending on my time here at work and further discussion.

Whether or not AV wants to confirm this, I had some words with them after thehe conclusion of the previous game. My actions were definitely influenced by how things were shaping up to be so Town Sided. I had my own game accidentslly skew significantly to town when I narrated, to the point of actually offering to restart the whole thing. So, while it may not have made much sense, I have a bit of a sore spot for having ng one side with a built in disadvantage.

No, I'm afraid I cannot admit to being either the Survivor or Serial Killer. And if memory serves from the last game, the Alien Mindslaver was a bitch and a half to deal with.

rogue_alchemist to get a vote on the table for now and purely for self preservation.

Yes, I approved, though there was more of a lag time from the start here than normal. I'd feel weird anyways making the first post on a thread I approved, when no one else had a chance to post first.

Discarding protective was to get a role that's more helpful to town, while also making a point of separating !HadesFlat from !CraziestFlat.

Edit-

Yeah, that's pretty much it Elenna. Having linked roles or narrator confirmed townies definitely makes outside conversation a huge tool for town. Mass claiming is bad for ball.

I don't have any, right now, though Xi said she's in touch with the vig iirc. Am I mixing this up with another game, or do we have open qt communication here? No one's reached out to me, understandably, but that stuck out to me. Are factions the only ones that know other players roles right now? Out of game talk came up a bunch recently, and it would be tough for me to try to find the exact posts to prove or disprove myself.

Appreciate that. Day 1 claims? Sheesh, that's a dangerous role to put out there if a Mindslaver is in play.

I intend to read those during the night phase. I suggest everyone else takes a look as well.
But the more interesting posts are probably how other players talked about Flat. Unfortunately they are harder to find.

[rogue_alchemist]

Alright, I agree that speculating who is what is a bad idea at night, so I'll stay away from that topic, but I have some thoughts on this whole who benefits from information and how much to reveal before being lynched.

So we have narrator confirmed discards, which is for sure the pairing of faction and power that was dealt. Then when a person gets lynched we have the power/role combination that that person chose (as well as what they ended up, if they were recruited by the cult) that is also narrator confirmed. The only missing bit of info is what faction was on the power card you chose as well as what power was on the faction card you chose. So by stating what factions you were dealt, we can pilfer through later in the game and try to decide who might be what faction. I think it would be beneficial for EVERYONE to claim what three factions they were dealt. Then as people flip in the night from NKs or from lynching, we can use the town flipped people as probably truthful and the non-townies as only partially truthful (they have to at least state the correct card they discarded, or else it is too easy to catch them in a lie). I agree with AV's analysis above about the likely distribution of cards based on past games and this games discards. Maybe my original statement about the most likely chance to hit scum D1 using town discard wasn't generally true, but I feel like this is 2 empirical data points where we can see that more scum was behind town discards than town was. It feels harder to do that kind of statistical analysis on the scum discards because it comes down to if someone has a preference for one of the scum teams or the town.

As far as claiming powers dealt, there is only 1 power missing from each person after they die, so I still think it would help town by claiming the full measure of what you were dealt about 1-1.5 hours before EOD if you are up for a lynch so we can know what is out there. I can't see how more info hurts town. I know scum has their network that they can all compare with and so they start with more info, but knowing 1 more power that was discarded doesn't seem to really help them more than the 2 that will already be out there.

I would love to hear other people's thoughts on this and where I may be wrong or not considering some important angle.

[Rogan]

I think it would be beneficial for EVERYONE to claim what three factions they were dealt. Then as people flip in the night from NKs or from lynching, we can use the town flipped people as probably truthful and the non-townies as only partially truthful (they have to at least state the correct card they discarded, or else it is too easy to catch them in a lie).

I would love to hear other people's thoughts on this and where I may be wrong or not considering some important angle.

One important question first.
Do you mean claim right now? Or only if you are about to die to a lynch.

[JeenLeen]

Are you suggesting everyone claim alignment cards dealt now (or at least at daybreak) or near death?
I can see either working well. Baddies might lie, but they might lie regardless of the plan. Whoever got dealt Serial Killer (even if they didn't pick it) might be inclined to lie, as having been dealt it would give suspicion you picked it. I guess Survivor might feel a touch similar, if they don't want that known, but I think the risks of them revealing are low.
I can see an argument for now, as potentially a lot of folk might die tonight.

I think I'm persuaded about revealing the power portion of cards near death. If you'd be so near death you'd claim to try to stay alive, you might as well say your cards, too.

[rogue_alchemist]

Also someone please protect me tonight from the likely nk, I am glad town was able to get a scum (and a pretty big power too) off the table, but if I die (or am roleblocked) tonight, I won't be able to provide much in the future either. I think Flat flipping Alien Overseer should prove that I am not also Alien Overseer at the very least, so if I have accurate faction info, then I must be town, as the other scum teams can't provide that info.

- - - Updated - - -

One important question first.
Do you mean claim right now? Or only if you are about to die to a lynch.

Are you suggesting everyone claim alignment cards dealt now (or at least at daybreak) or near death?
I can see either working well. Baddies might lie, but they might lie regardless of the plan. Whoever got dealt Serial Killer (even if they didn't pick it) might be inclined to lie, as having been dealt it would give suspicion you picked it. I guess Survivor might feel a touch similar, if they don't want that known, but I think the risks of them revealing are low.
I can see an argument for now, as potentially a lot of folk might die tonight.

I think I'm persuaded about revealing the power portion of cards near death. If you'd be so near death you'd claim to try to stay alive, you might as well say your cards, too.

Yea, I figure claim faction now, as Jeen said, we are likely to have lots of deaths (unless everyone just tried to kill me and I get super murdered). I agree we can assume baddies are gonna lie no matter what and the info doesn't become useful until way later in the game when we are trying to find the last few baddies, but it is good to have it now. I can also see claiming something false now if you are survivor/serial killer (or discarded those cards), and only revealing the truth when it gets closer to a lynch for you if you suddenly feel like helping town.

[JeenLeen]

I think I'm persuaded to giving my alignment cards, but I'll wait at least an hour to see if anybody gives a good counter-argument.

The only way this potentially helps the baddies is that it might help the baddies pinpoint how many are in a rival faction.
On the other hand, how baddies lie about their cards might help us catch someone in a lie. Though that's doubtful as they will get to see what folk have already said and craft their lies appropriately, and it's not like it's obviously non-Town if someone refuses or waits to participate.
If this was a game with private QTs (and I'm glad it's not), I could see someone asking everyone to QT them their alignment cards privately, and we'd probably get some sets of "well, of these two or three people, someone must be lying" and help us pinpoint a baddie... but, well, glad we don't need to contemplate that level of work.

[AvatarVecna]

I think I'm persuaded to giving my alignment cards, but I'll wait at least an hour to see if anybody gives a good counter-argument.

The only way this potentially helps the baddies is that it might help the baddies pinpoint how many are in a rival faction.
On the other hand, how baddies lie about their cards might help us catch someone in a lie. Though that's doubtful as they will get to see what folk have already said and craft their lies appropriately, and it's not like it's obviously non-Town if someone refuses or waits to participate.
If this was a game with private QTs (and I'm glad it's not), I could see someone asking everyone to QT them their alignment cards privately, and we'd probably get some sets of "well, of these two or three people, someone must be lying" and help us pinpoint a baddie... but, well, glad we don't need to contemplate that level of work.

Ah yes, "we".

[Rogan]

I think I'm persuaded about revealing the power portion of cards near death. If you'd be so near death you'd claim to try to stay alive, you might as well say your cards, too.

If you are about to die and actually die (to a lynch or a nk), your claim will get confirmation. The other parts won't be confirmed. So the claim might help staying alive for the lynch, which is good for town and the poor guy on the chopping block. But I thought there was a consensus about roles helping scum more than town?

Also someone please protect me tonight from the likely nk, I am glad town was able to get a scum (and a pretty big power too) off the table, but if I die (or am roleblocked) tonight, I won't be able to provide much in the future either. I think Flat flipping Alien Overseer should prove that I am not also Alien Overseer at the very least, so if I have accurate faction info, then I must be town, as the other scum teams can't provide that info.

You could be a cultists and would gain accurate information. Unless you discarded cult. Did you? Going to check...
Okay, you did. So your statement seems correct

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Also someone please protect me tonight from the likely nk, I am glad town was able to get a scum (and a pretty big power too) off the table, but if I die (or am roleblocked) tonight, I won't be able to provide much in the future either. I think Flat flipping Alien Overseer should prove that I am not also Alien Overseer at the very least, so if I have accurate faction info, then I must be town, as the other scum teams can't provide that info.

Flat_footed flipping Alien means you are less likely Alien (probably).

Once you give us an accurate scry on Day 2, we'll know that you were Town (or Alien) on Night 1. Cult throws in a wrinkle but that's easy to deal with - the first day you don't give us an accurate Alignment we know you've been converted and will lynch you the next day (or shoot at night).

[Rogan]

Cult throws in a wrinkle but that's easy to deal with - the first day you don't give us an accurate Alignment we know you've been converted and will lynch you the next day (or shoot at night).

Cult gets an accurate alignment as well. Even more accurate, since they can't be foiled by a framer.

[Batcathat]

Once you give us an accurate scry on Day 2, we'll know that you were Town (or Alien) on Night 1. Cult throws in a wrinkle but that's easy to deal with - the first day you don't give us an accurate Alignment we know you've been converted and will lynch you the next day (or shoot at night).

Maybe this is a stupid question, but how do we tell it's an accurate scry without any sort of functioning town network? Couldn't rogue just claim to scry one of his hypothetical werewolf/mafia/cult buddies and then have them "confirm" it?

[gac3]

Okay. So some elaboration on what I meant about the cult.

There are up to 7 factions in the game. Town, Mafia, Werewolf, Alien, Cult, Survivor, Serial Killer

Here is my understanding of each faction and their threat level to town and their threat level to non-town. The last column I marked as EOME for enemy of my enemy. That's the threat to non-town section. I'll rank their threat level out of 7. 1 being not a threat and 7 being kill as soon as possible.

Faction	Threat	EOME
Town	2	2
Mafia	5/6	3/4
Werewolf	5/6	3/4
Alien	3*	5*
Cult	4*	6*
Survivor	1	1
Serial Killer	7	7

Spoiler: Notes about my rankings

Show

Survivor is ranked as less of a threat to town than town because a survivor's only goal is to live.

Aliens are a low threat based completely on whether town should be more afraid of enemy info gathering or killing. Alien's might have a kill but it's nothing overly special, while the wolves/mafia do. So I ranked them low because the discussion tended towards "information helps town" more than "information helps baddies". So that led me to rank them low based on the fact that they gather information mainly and can't kill. Definitely a threat and could easily be ranked higher if baddie info gathering is deemed worse than baddie killing.

With these rankings, I'm not saying cult isn't a threat but of the baddie factions they should be a much bigger target for the wolves than for the town. Because it's the only faction that can grow and if town numbers are accurate, they could become the majority easily. While this isn't good for anyone who does town and I'm not saying we shouldn't fight back against cult, I'm saying that the bigger threats (like the other factions) are a bigger danger to town than they are to each other. So they are our problem. Let the wolves/mafia/aliens worry about the cult at first.

**See my notes spoiler for why I am not pushing the same point about Aliens.

[Rogan]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but how do we tell it's an accurate scry without any sort of functioning town network? Couldn't rogue just claim to scry one of his hypothetical werewolf/mafia/cult buddies and then have them "confirm" it?

Best case, he shouts scum, we kill scum and they flip.
Does not work that good for a town scry

[JeenLeen]

Ah yes, "we".

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

[gac3]

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

Based on the person who called you out, I don't think they were suspecting you of being Wolfy based on that. I am under the impression based on things they said in the PJ game that they very much feel like that "we" should have been "Avatar Vecna" and they aren't entirely wrong.

[JeenLeen]

Based on the person who called you out, I don't think they were suspecting you of being Wolfy based on that. I am under the impression based on things they said in the PJ game that they very much feel like that "we" should have been "Avatar Vecna" and they aren't entirely wrong.

Ah, fair point.
And now I probably made myself look super-wolfy by responding defensively about it

[Rogan]

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

Based on the person who called you out, I don't think they were suspecting you of being Wolfy based on that. I am under the impression based on things they said in the PJ game that they very much feel like that "we" should have been "Avatar Vecna" and they aren't entirely wrong.

I am with gac here. "We" seemed to be AV making clear she did most of the towns work last game.

[totadileplayz]

Faction	Threat	EOME
Town	2	2
Mafia	5/6	3/4
Werewolf	5/6	3/4
Alien	3*	5*
Cult	4*	6*
Survivor	1	1
Serial Killer	7	7

Hmm, an argument could be made that while cultist's do convert town this isn't technically a bad thing for the townies, as it's a simple change in win-con. While, I wouldn't like to be converted to cultist, they're unlikely to want any town to die unlike any other faction as that means a member-to-be is gone. Cultists are motivated to help town, as they are a future team-mate. Aliens do not care about town, and is fine with lying to kill a townie if it's a net-gain for them a Cultist would never want to kill a townie besides to save their own team-mate. I believe that as a Result Town is better aided by cultists as they actually care about townies being alive, compared to the Aliens uncaring decisions for self-winning. Yes, they grow, but a change in win-con does not mean a townie loses just changes how they play the game.

I'd personally not like to be a cultist, but if I did it's better then aliens misdirecting a lynch or nk onto me something a Cultist wouldn't wish to do.

[Rogan]

Ah, fair point.
And now I probably made myself look super-wolfy by responding defensively about it

I thought about it for a moment, but didn't think you would fall for it that easily.
You were not a member of town core and I don't know how much you did read after the game. So it is plausible you didn't realize how much AV had done.

[AvatarVecna]

Okay. So some elaboration on what I meant about the cult.

There are up to 7 factions in the game. Town, Mafia, Werewolf, Alien, Cult, Survivor, Serial Killer

Here is my understanding of each faction and their threat level to town and their threat level to non-town. The last column I marked as EOME for enemy of my enemy. That's the threat to non-town section. I'll rank their threat level out of 7. 1 being not a threat and 7 being kill as soon as possible.

Faction	Threat	EOME
Town	2	2
Mafia	5/6	3/4
Werewolf	5/6	3/4
Alien	3*	5*
Cult	4*	6*
Survivor	1	1
Serial Killer	7	7

Spoiler: Notes about my rankings

Show

Survivor is ranked as less of a threat to town than town because a survivor's only goal is to live.

Aliens are a low threat based completely on whether town should be more afraid of enemy info gathering or killing. Alien's might have a kill but it's nothing overly special, while the wolves/mafia do. So I ranked them low because the discussion tended towards "information helps town" more than "information helps baddies". So that led me to rank them low based on the fact that they gather information mainly and can't kill. Definitely a threat and could easily be ranked higher if baddie info gathering is deemed worse than baddie killing.

With these rankings, I'm not saying cult isn't a threat but of the baddie factions they should be a much bigger target for the wolves than for the town. Because it's the only faction that can grow and if town numbers are accurate, they could become the majority easily. While this isn't good for anyone who does town and I'm not saying we shouldn't fight back against cult, I'm saying that the bigger threats (like the other factions) are a bigger danger to town than they are to each other. So they are our problem. Let the wolves/mafia/aliens worry about the cult at first.

**See my notes spoiler for why I am not pushing the same point about Aliens.

Town should be 1 or 5/6. Either we're ranking them on theorycrafting (in which case Survivor can side with scum, where town is only anti-town by accident) or we're acknowledging how much town can accidentally shoot itself in the foot, in which case it needs to be much much higher.

Also, I guess this could be a very accidental Survivor claim lol

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

Wasn't intended as a scum callout as much as like...

"Oh yeah somebody would be setting those up if it were allowed. And if they did, we would be working so hard trying to decipher the info it resulted in."

We know who somebody is. And we know who all "we" would be.

[EmmyNecromancer]

Like I said, I got a Mafia Roleblocking card, Cult JOAT card, and Town Tracking Card. I discarded the Mafia Roleblocking Card.