Thoughts on the OOTS goblin predicament

[hungrycrow]

Redcloak's not even trying to establish a world-wide regime, though?

The plan is to give TDO a supernuke to hold the other gods hostage. What happens after that, and what demands they would actually make, is unclear. But if the gods took the threat seriously then TDO would basically control the multiverse.

Serini doesn't seem to know that though; it seems like she buys into Xykon's version of the plan, where he becomes king of the world with Redcloak as his right hand man.

[hroþila]

The plan is to give the Dark One exactly one supernuke, and once he uses it he's toast. If his demands get too unreasonable, the gods can easily decide to risk trying to take him down. The Snarl can't kill them all if everyone's in their own domains and only converge to attack the Dark One, at which point the Dark One can only kill them by releasing the Snarl on top of himself (and being unmade as a result).

[Lemarc]

...No? Rich said that TDO's plan is literally:

1. Use the Ritual to take control of the Snarl
2. Use the Snarl to blackmail the gods
3. Get concessions that benefit the goblins and explictily isn't on the lines of "and all of you are my slaves forever".
4. ???
5. Profit!

I agree that it'll probably cause needless suffering though, yeah.

Xykon probably wants "needless suffering" by default, unless part of his demands are "let me taste coffee again" potentially, but one way or another I don't see him taking over the world specifically through the Snarl.

What is the consensus, or at least most popular, forum opinion about TDO anyway? The fact that he's simply absent and isn't returning Redcloak's calls has me primed to expect something but I have no idea what.

[danielxcutter]

The plan is to give TDO a supernuke to hold the other gods hostage. What happens after that, and what demands they would actually make, is unclear. But if the gods took the threat seriously then TDO would basically control the multiverse.

Serini doesn't seem to know that though; it seems like she buys into Xykon's version of the plan, where he becomes king of the world with Redcloak as his right hand man.

As stated earlier, TDO wouldn't actually be able to control the multiverse. Perhaps a disproportionate amount of power for a god, but the total power he's aiming for is somewhat less than multiversal domination.

Though yes, Serini seems to believe that Xykon's plan is the case. Which really is one of my big disagreements with her. I mean, "TDO gets the Snarl" or "the gods unmake the world but they're safe to make more" are obviously less than ideal, but they're obviously better than multiversal domination.

Xykon hypothetically gaining control of the Snarl himself might arguably be worse.

Edit:

What is the consensus, or at least most popular, forum opinion about TDO anyway? The fact that he's simply absent and isn't returning Redcloak's calls has me primed to expect something but I have no idea what.

My current headcanon is "Redcloak's too scared to ask more directly" with a good side helping of "TDO's doing the work of an entire pantheon so he's kinda busy".

...What? Most of us are arguing that TDO's side isn't completely wrong. That doesn't mean Redcloak can't be a complete jackass.

[Ionathus]

What text colors do we have left to use?

Can there be a text color for "we are only discussing what Serini knows, which does not include Redcloak's actual plan nor the information about the gods wanting to pre-emptively unmake the world to stop The Plan."?

I feel like every time her point of view & decision-making gets discussed, the waters just get muddied with people arguing about stuff she doesn't know.

[Metastachydium]

The plan is to give TDO a supernuke to hold the other gods hostage. What happens after that, and what demands they would actually make, is unclear. But if the gods took the threat seriously then TDO would basically control the multiverse.

Serini doesn't seem to know that though; it seems like she buys into Xykon's version of the plan, where he becomes king of the world with Redcloak as his right hand man.

The plan is to give the Dark One exactly one supernuke, and once he uses it he's toast. If his demands get too unreasonable, the gods can easily decide to risk trying to take him down. The Snarl can't kill them all if everyone's in their own domains and only converge to attack the Dark One, at which point the Dark One can only kill them by releasing the Snarl on top of himself (and being unmade as a result).

Or, in the Giant's own words,

There is some misunderstanding of the mechanics involved here.

1.) If the Dark One succeeds at the ritual, he gains the ability to move the Gate. If he does this and moves the Gate to, say, Valhalla, then the Snarl pops out of the Gate and kills the gods on Valhalla. Then it destroys all of Valhalla until it's a big empty void-plane. And then...nothing. That's it. The Dark One does not have a way to put the Snarl back into the prison after he's unleashed it. The Snarl just lives on Valhalla now, or what's left of it.

2.) The Gate connects the prison to another plane. When the Dark One moves it, it now connects the prison to a different plane. So after the Snarl is unleashed on Plane 1, then the Dark One moves the Gate to Plane 2, it now connects the prison to Plane 2—it does not connect Planes 1 and 2.

3.) But that doesn't really matter because once the Snarl is free on any plane other than its prison, then literally any planar gateway could potentially allow it to change planes. The Dark One would cease to have any control over its location, and in fact it would be far more likely that some of the evil gods would start spamming big flashy portals to the Dark One's domain until the Snarl took the bait and went through.

4.) Alternately, once any Northern god dies, the deadlock at the Godsmoot is broken and the vote resolves (votes from dead gods don't count). Even if the world was "saved" they would be free to immediately take a second vote to destroy the world—or even just to kill all goblins—depriving the Dark One of his followers and ultimately killing him over the long term.

The Snarl is like a nuclear bomb. You can get a lot of leverage out of owning a nuclear bomb, because no one wants it dropped on them. But if everyone knows you only own one and then you use it on someone...then everyone left knows you don't have it anymore. Sucks for your one target, but it won't end well for you, either.

That's why the Dark One's actual plan is to use the threat of moving the Gate to extract concessions from the other gods and deter preemptive strikes against his followers. Those concessions will be significantly less than, "All of you be my slaves forever," because at that point, the calculus would change and some of the gods might risk the bomb getting dropped on one of them to end the Dark One's threat to their friends and family.

(And please do leave me alone with the usual „what if the Giant is lying” thing).

The fact that he's simply absent and isn't returning Redcloak's calls has me primed to expect something but I have no idea what.

We have no evidence Redcloak ever called. Heck, he explicitly states that he's trying to give him some space.

Xykon hypothetically gaining control of the Snarl himself might arguably be worse.

Not that he can possibly achieve that through the Ritual.

What text colors do we have left to use?

Can there be a text color for "we are only discussing what Serini knows, which does not include Redcloak's actual plan nor the information about the gods wanting to pre-emptively unmake the world to stop The Plan."?

I will go ahead and suggest this one.

[hungrycrow]

The snarlnuke only works once if someone calls his bluff. TDO can keep asking for whatever he wants forever as long as the other gods think it's better than being annihilated. As long as the new world order gives the other gods enough worship to stay alive, they'd go along with it.

Agree that Xykon controlling the Snarl would probably be worse. When he claimed he wasn't out to destroy the world, he admitted he might do it if he got really bored. Unlike TDO he might not even wait for someone to call his bluff before using it.

[danielxcutter]

What text colors do we have left to use?

Can there be a text color for "we are only discussing what Serini knows, which does not include Redcloak's actual plan nor the information about the gods wanting to pre-emptively unmake the world to stop The Plan."?

I feel like every time her point of view & decision-making gets discussed, the waters just get muddied with people arguing about stuff she doesn't know.

I do wonder what she does know.

Was she like Belkar and skipped a few cutscenes, so to speak? Belkar didn't catch up completely until after Utterly Dwarfed. If she knows that the Snarl can literally murder gods then she's full of crap, but if she thinks it's just another generic doomsday device...

Not that he can possibly achieve that through the Ritual.

I mean yeah, that was my point. I mean what Serini thinks that Xykon thinks he can do, not what he can actually do.

[Metastachydium]

The snarlnuke only works once if someone calls his bluff. TDO can keep asking for whatever he wants forever as long as the other gods think it's better than being annihilated. As long as the new world order gives the other gods enough worship to stay alive, they'd go along with it.

Did you somehow miss the part with

[t]he Snarl is like a nuclear bomb. You can get a lot of leverage out of owning a nuclear bomb, because no one wants it dropped on them. But if everyone knows you only own one and then you use it on someone...then everyone left knows you don't have it anymore. Sucks for your one target, but it won't end well for you, either.

That's why the Dark One's actual plan is to use the threat of moving the Gate to extract concessions from the other gods and deter preemptive strikes against his followers. Those concessions will be significantly less than, "All of you be my slaves forever," because at that point, the calculus would change and some of the gods might risk the bomb getting dropped on one of them to end the Dark One's threat to their friends and family.

Emphasis mine.

[Jasdoif]

The snarlnuke only works once if someone calls his bluff. TDO can keep asking for whatever he wants forever as long as the other gods think it's better than being annihilated.

Unless they think the Snarl would get loose in the near future no matter what The Dark One might intend, because there's only one Gate restraining the Snarl and it'd been poked and prodded by two people who have no direct knowledge of what they were messing with.

[hungrycrow]

Did you somehow miss the part with

Emphasis mine.

Being able to ask for anything that wouldn't prompt a noble sacrifice won't get "all of you be my slaves forever", but it's still a lot. I'd argue that still counts as 'ruling'.

Also this discussion sometimes moves way faster than I write responses. Sorry if I miss things.

[danielxcutter]

Personally, I don't think TDO getting control of the Snarl would be that horrible, compared to some of the other possibilities?

I mean, sure. Probably Evil god with control of a god-killing abomination, probably opposed by other Evil gods as well as the others. A forceful change of the status quo, rather than a more natural one.

But while it's far from ideal, and probably a net loss for the multiverse at large, I can't say it's only downsides. Of course, we all know that'll never happen, but it still has less degrees of Total Fail than like, the Snarl breaking loose and unraveling everything, or the IFCC usurping the Ritual or something.

And the one certain positive is that the goblins would be less shafted than they are now. If not as much as TDO wants because a lot of gods would have a bit of a grudge.

[Metastachydium]

Being able to ask for anything that wouldn't prompt a noble sacrifice won't get "all of you be my slaves forever", but it's still a lot. I'd argue that still counts as 'ruling'.

I think you define „ruling” a fair bit more broadly than I think we should, but, of course, you'll think what you will. At any rate, Big Purple definitely could not do this indefinitely, because frustration over a feeling of impotence would quite likely build up quite quickly given that we are talking about quasiomnipotent beings.

Also this discussion sometimes moves way faster than I write responses. Sorry if I miss things.

Right? That is the exact reason why I have to give up on keeping track of the main discussion threads, so I feel that. Sorry if I came through as snappier than what the situation warranted.

Personally, I don't think TDO getting control of the Snarl would be that horrible, compared to some of the other possibilities?

I mean, sure. Probably Evil god with control of a god-killing abomination, probably opposed by other Evil gods as well as the others. A forceful change of the status quo, rather than a more natural one.

But while it's far from ideal, and probably a net loss for the multiverse at large, I can't say it's only downsides. Of course, we all know that'll never happen, but it still has less degrees of Total Fail than like, the Snarl breaking loose and unraveling everything, or the IFCC usurping the Ritual or something.

And the one certain positive is that the goblins would be less shafted than they are now. If not as much as TDO wants because a lot of gods would have a bit of a grudge.

Precisely! Where was Gondor when I regularly voiced something like that and got called an apologist of terrorism for that?

[Dion]

What could Azure City offered in negotiations that would have mattered to the hobgoblins?

I’m pretty sure this was in the strip?

In short: they discussed paying the hobgoblins to leave, which probably would have worked and seems to be the common real world practice when dealing with barbarian hordes (at least since the invention of money).

However, the hobgoblins weren’t in charge, so asking what the hobgoblins wanted was a moot point.

Remember, Azure City wasn’t attacked by hobgoblins. It was attacked by a human sorcerer with a hobgoblin army.

[danielxcutter]

Precisely! Where was Gondor when I regularly voiced something like that and got called an apologist of terrorism for that?

What does Gondor have to do with anything?

I’m pretty sure this was in the strip?

In short: they discussed paying the hobgoblins to leave, which probably would have worked and seems to be the common real world practice when dealing with barbarian hordes (at least since the invention of money).

However, the hobgoblins weren’t in charge, so asking what the hobgoblins wanted was a moot point.

Remember, Azure City wasn’t attacked by hobgoblins. It was attacked by a human sorcerer with a hobgoblin army.

Er, no. Kubota suggested giving whatever Xykon wanted to him, except what he wanted was the Gate and we all know why that's a bad idea. Plus Kubota wasn't in on the secret, though I wonder if that'd have changed much anyways. Might have changed the minds of some of the nobles, actually, considering Kubota was apparently quite more power-hungry than the others. But it wouldn't have been worth spilling the beans anyways.

[Jasdoif]

Er, no. Kubota suggested giving whatever Xykon wanted to him, except what he wanted was the Gate and we all know why that's a bad idea. Plus Kubota wasn't in on the secret, though I wonder if that'd have changed much anyways. Might have changed the minds of some of the nobles, actually, considering Kubota was apparently quite more power-hungry than the others. But it wouldn't have been worth spilling the beans anyways.

Some version of "Xykon's convinced a mystically important location is in the city, it isn't the kind of thing we could just take out to give him" might've done something.

[danielxcutter]

Some version of "Xykon's convinced a mystically important location is in the city, it isn't the kind of thing we could just take out to give him" might've done something.

True. Not that it'd help, I imagine.

I mean, there's a fairly wide gap between "mystical hotspot" and "god-killing abomination".

[Jasdoif]

True. Not that it'd help, I imagine.

I mean, there's a fairly wide gap between "mystical hotspot" and "god-killing abomination".

Well, the spot being in the city means Xykon would necessarily be coming into the city, bringing the hobgoblin army along; and the city is where a lot of the nobles' stuff is.

[danielxcutter]

Well, the spot being in the city means Xykon would necessarily be coming into the city, bringing the hobgoblin army along; and the city is where a lot of the nobles' stuff is.

Considering that the nobles stayed out of the fight anyways, I think they assumed they could just come back after both sides had beaten each other up and clean up the remainders.

[Lemarc]

What does Gondor have to do with anything?

It's a bit. LotR movies. Means "where were my allies when I needed them", but in a humorous way.

[Jasdoif]

Considering that the nobles stayed out of the fight anyways, I think they assumed they could just come back after both sides had beaten each other up and clean up the remainders.

Based on what Roy said, they were likely counting on Xykon to break in, grab what he wanted, and leave with his prize; without having much time to bother with the rest of the city...at which point they would come back and reclaim their stuff (and possibly more, depending on how Hinjo's ability to resist was looking). Xykon being unable to take his prize with him, and thus hanging around the city with an army of hobgoblins, would change that picture.

[Dion]

Er, no. Kubota suggested giving whatever Xykon wanted to him,

Xykon is not a hobgoblin.

[Severance]

...No? Rich said that TDO's plan is literally:

1. Use the Ritual to take control of the Snarl
2. Use the Snarl to blackmail the gods
3. Get concessions that benefit the goblins and explictily isn't on the lines of "and all of you are my slaves forever".
4. ???
5. Profit!

The guy wanted "concessions and benefits" before ascending to Godhood, we don't know what his actual plans are now. All we know is what Redcloak says, Redcloak who never got to talk to his deity about it.
The only thing we know now of the Dark One is that after ascending he's been melting any messenger that came his way so I wouldn't be so quick at crossing "and you are now all my slaves" from his actual, updated list.

The plan is to give the Dark One exactly one supernuke, and once he uses it he's toast. If his demands get too unreasonable, the gods can easily decide to risk trying to take him down. The Snarl can't kill them all if everyone's in their own domains and only converge to attack the Dark One, at which point the Dark One can only kill them by releasing the Snarl on top of himself (and being unmade as a result).

This is very naive. The thing with being the only one in the world with access to nukes is that you don't need to use them to control the world, all you need is the fear of you pressing the button.
All you need is letting people know that you have a button to press and you're bound to see gods coming your way to butter you up into not being the target.
All you need is a few opportunistic gods willing to become your servants in exchange for leeching off your power and authority over those who don't and the whole "all gods gang up on you" becomes pretty much impossible.

If what you say was true then a single guy with a gun could never hold dozens of people hostage: if they all rushed the guy clearly he could only be able to take down so much before getting overwhelmed... but that rarely if ever happens.
What actually happens is that they all just cower because they don't wanna be the ones getting shot.

Let's not kid ourselves into thinking that controlling the Snarl doesn't mean controlling the multiverse.

[hroþila]

Why do you say "nukes"? It's one singular nuke and no ability to make more. Furthermore, every party involved knows that, if the nuke is actually used, then the Dark One is gone. It's a standoff. Imagine someone with a single-shot pistol pointing it at a number of enemies armed with swords. Sure, nobody will want to go first and be shot, but if the pistol guy doesn't offer them a reasonable way out, then they'll charge and cut down the pistol guy.

Hostages don't usually rush criminals because most of the time it's not worth it, but if the criminal keeps making things worse and worse, at a certain point the risk will be worth it for at least some people.

Also, you might want to read The Giant's quotes on the topic.

[arimareiji]

This is very naive. The thing with being the only one in the world with access to nukes is that you don't need to use them to control the world, all you need is the fear of you pressing the button.
All you need is letting people know that you have a button to press and you're bound to see gods coming your way to butter you up into not being the target.
All you need is a few opportunistic gods willing to become your servants in exchange for leeching off your power and authority over those who don't and the whole "all gods gang up on you" becomes pretty much impossible.

If what you say was true then a single guy with a gun could never hold dozens of people hostage: if they all rushed the guy clearly he could only be able to take down so much before getting overwhelmed... but that rarely if ever happens.
What actually happens is that they all just cower because they don't wanna be the ones getting shot.

Let's not kid ourselves into thinking that controlling the Snarl doesn't mean controlling the multiverse.

This has the ring of truth, but leaves out an important calculus: TDO apparently^* doesn't know the gods have the option of unmaking creation themselves so that they can beat the Snarl to the punch. So to torture the metaphor a bit, he has a nuke -- but he doesn't know that the gods have well-stocked bunkers and an early-warning system, while he only has a tub of pistachio ice cream and a few bags of Cheetos. (Sucks to be everyone at ground zero, but that doesn't help TDO.)

_{* - Or maybe he does, because he's better at finding information than the gods we've heard from give him credit for? Remember that they were going to let him in on the secret when it was convenient, but he found out first. But it doesn't matter, and we're back to the same place, unless TDO can figure out a ritual that takes less time than it would take the gods to pull the trigger on unmaking creation.}

[Metastachydium]

The guy wanted "concessions and benefits" before ascending to Godhood, we don't know what his actual plans are now. All we know is what Redcloak says, Redcloak who never got to talk to his deity about it.
The only thing we know now of the Dark One is that after ascending he's been melting any messenger that came his way so I wouldn't be so quick at crossing "and you are now all my slaves" from his actual, updated list.



This is very naive. The thing with being the only one in the world with access to nukes is that you don't need to use them to control the world, all you need is the fear of you pressing the button.
All you need is letting people know that you have a button to press and you're bound to see gods coming your way to butter you up into not being the target.
All you need is a few opportunistic gods willing to become your servants in exchange for leeching off your power and authority over those who don't and the whole "all gods gang up on you" becomes pretty much impossible.

If what you say was true then a single guy with a gun could never hold dozens of people hostage: if they all rushed the guy clearly he could only be able to take down so much before getting overwhelmed... but that rarely if ever happens.
What actually happens is that they all just cower because they don't wanna be the ones getting shot.

This is not the first time I post this same quote on this very page of this very thread, but apparently it needs reiterating.
As per the Word of the Giant:

There is some misunderstanding of the mechanics involved here.

1.) If the Dark One succeeds at the ritual, he gains the ability to move the Gate. If he does this and moves the Gate to, say, Valhalla, then the Snarl pops out of the Gate and kills the gods on Valhalla. Then it destroys all of Valhalla until it's a big empty void-plane. And then...nothing. That's it. The Dark One does not have a way to put the Snarl back into the prison after he's unleashed it. The Snarl just lives on Valhalla now, or what's left of it.

2.) The Gate connects the prison to another plane. When the Dark One moves it, it now connects the prison to a different plane. So after the Snarl is unleashed on Plane 1, then the Dark One moves the Gate to Plane 2, it now connects the prison to Plane 2—it does not connect Planes 1 and 2.

3.) But that doesn't really matter because once the Snarl is free on any plane other than its prison, then literally any planar gateway could potentially allow it to change planes. The Dark One would cease to have any control over its location, and in fact it would be far more likely that some of the evil gods would start spamming big flashy portals to the Dark One's domain until the Snarl took the bait and went through.

4.) Alternately, once any Northern god dies, the deadlock at the Godsmoot is broken and the vote resolves (votes from dead gods don't count). Even if the world was "saved" they would be free to immediately take a second vote to destroy the world—or even just to kill all goblins—depriving the Dark One of his followers and ultimately killing him over the long term.

The Snarl is like a nuclear bomb. You can get a lot of leverage out of owning a nuclear bomb, because no one wants it dropped on them. But if everyone knows you only own one and then you use it on someone...then everyone left knows you don't have it anymore. Sucks for your one target, but it won't end well for you, either.

That's why the Dark One's actual plan is to use the threat of moving the Gate to extract concessions from the other gods and deter preemptive strikes against his followers. Those concessions will be significantly less than, "All of you be my slaves forever," because at that point, the calculus would change and some of the gods might risk the bomb getting dropped on one of them to end the Dark One's threat to their friends and family.

Emphases mine.
In other words, sorry, no
1. Big Purple waving around the Gate canonically cannot achieve just about anything
2. and Big Purple canonically knows this.

Let's not kid ourselves into thinking that controlling the Snarl doesn't mean controlling the multiverse.

It certainly would. Sole problem is, as far as we know, it is impossible to control the Snarl. All Big Purple could do were the Plan to succeed would be unleashing the Snarl exactly once on exactly one target and then losing control and quite probably ending up as the second victim of the Snarl before it's contained again (v. the quote above).

[Severance]

Why do you say "nukes"? It's one singular nuke and no ability to make more. Furthermore, every party involved knows that, if the nuke is actually used, then the Dark One is gone. It's a standoff. Imagine someone with a single-shot pistol pointing it at a number of enemies armed with swords. Sure, nobody will want to go first and be shot, but if the pistol guy doesn't offer them a reasonable way out, then they'll charge and cut down the pistol guy.

Hostages don't usually rush criminals because most of the time it's not worth it, but if the criminal keeps making things worse and worse, at a certain point the risk will be worth it for at least some people.

Also, you might want to read The Giant's quotes on the topic.

One or two nukes, 6 bullets or one, a knife you can only swing once... doesn't matter. Once you possess a superior threat in your hands that nobody can match + people terrified to be subjected to said threat then you have all the elements to be in control.
Nobody's gonna want to be that one martyr who goes first and dies while the others survive, meaning that so long you play your cards right and don't exacerbate the situation provoking an attack out of emotion then you're de facto the leader of the pantheon.
You're in control of the multiverse.

This is not the first time I post this same quote on this very page of this very thread, but apparently it needs reiterating.

It really doesn't since you're missing how that post is irrelevant to this discussion.
All it describes is stuff that happens once the button is pressed, I'm talking about how you can game the gods so you can rule without ever having to actually press said button.

It's truly naive to believe that having just one nuke means "well duh, someone is just gonna get nuked once and then the tyrant's done for!".... except reality doesn't work this way, people don't work this way, history teaches just that.
What actually would happen is that the guy with the single nuke keeps strategically dangling it over one target or another inspiring fear and concessions from said target of the day, meanwhile some realize that it's better to rule in hell than serve in paradise and thus bow to the guy so long they can second-hand rule the others.

Controlling the Snarl, even if just once, is controlling the universe, and the same would happen in our world if only one country could use the only Atom Bomb in existance.
Nobody's gonna go against a guy with the power to God-Kill. Not one. Doesn't matter if he can only use it once.

[hroþila]

History is full of examples of people that were pressed too hard, to the point of taking extremely dangerous actions because the alternative was unbearable. If the Dark One doesn't overplay his hand, he certainly has a very definite advantage and he can get concessions. If he takes it too far, the risk-to-reward assessment changes. The last sentence in The Giant's post is 100% relevant to the scenario being discussed.

[Severance]

Which is why I said he must not overplay his hand.
Just take it slow, go one inch at a time, scrub away a little freedom and power from the other gods at a time, a little concession leading into a slightly bigger one, and a slightly bigger one yet again, keep moving that window...

Bam, there you have [Literally Every Real World Tyrant in History Ever].

[hungrycrow]

Which is why I said he must not overplay his hand.
Just take it slow, go one inch at a time, scrub away a little freedom and power from the other gods at a time, a little concession leading into a slightly bigger one, and a slightly bigger one yet again, keep moving that window...

Bam, there you have [Literally Every Real World Tyrant in History Ever].

Admittedly he only has to push one god too far to overplay his hand. Most tyrants are fine as long as they don't push thousands of people into desperation at once. So TDO has to be extra careful about his demands.